Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Springfield, MO

Home | Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary Off
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40

FXUS63 KSGF 151052

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Springfield MO
552 AM CDT Sat Oct 15 2016

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 320 AM CDT Sat Oct 15 2016

A low level stratus deck is over the area this morning. Southerly
winds have increased across much of the forecast area except for
south central MO where winds remain a little weaker. The increased
winds have overall limited any dense fog development this morning.
There will be patchy fog around early this morning, mainly in
higher elevations due to stratus build down and across south
central Missouri where weaker winds are occurring. Widespread
dense fog is not expected but areas of fog with visibilities less
than a mile will occur in spots across south central Missouri
this morning. Patchy drizzle will also be possible early this
morning especially across the eastern Ozarks where lower ceilings
are in place.

The southerly winds will start a warming trend today as highs top
out in the middle 70s to the lower 80s this afternoon. Winds will
become gusty with gusts around 30 mph expected at times across
southeastern Kansas and the western Missouri Ozarks later this
morning through this afternoon.

A weak disturbance will track across the region tonight, the
better lift will remain north of the area. A few sprinkles may be
possible as it passes through the region tonight but overall dry
weather is expected. Warmer conditions will occur tonight as lows
generally only cool into the middle 60s to around 70 tonight into
early Sunday morning.

.LONG TERM...(Sunday through Friday)
Issued at 320 AM CDT Sat Oct 15 2016

An upper level ridge of high pressure will build over the region
Sunday into Monday ushering in a very warm air mass into the area
for mid October. 850mb temperatures will warm into the middle
teens to near 20 degree C. This will result in highs topping out
in the middle to upper 80s. A few spots approaching 90 are not
out of the question Monday afternoon. Some record highs may be in
jeopardy on both Sunday and Monday.

A cold front will start to spread south into the area on Tuesday.
There will not be a lot of upper level support with the front, so
this will limit the precipitation chances along the front on
Tuesday. Temperatures will still remain above normal on Tuesday
but will be cooler than Sunday and Monday with the front in the
area. Highs on Tuesday will be in the upper 70s to the lower 80s.
With the lack of upper level support to drive the front through
the area, the front will likely stall across the area on Tuesday
into Tuesday night.

An upper level trough will spread into the Plains Wednesday into
Thursday and will drive the front south through the area and bring
chances for showers and storms to the area, especially along the

Medium range models then diverge on the upper level pattern
Thursday into next weekend. The difference on being more
progressive with the trough and spreading it east, where the other
is slower and closes the low off over the area and has it
remaining over the region into next weekend. The more progressive
solution will bring a quick hit of showers and storms to the area
as the trough moves through the region. The closed low solution
would keep rain in the area into the weekend.

Looking at the long wave charts, the upper level ridge will start
to build in the Plains and the region by next weekend. At this
time given more of a ridging long wave chart, we have leaned more
toward the more progressive model, and have lowered pops with this
solution for later in the week, but did not take them completely
out given the uncertainty during this time.


.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Sunday morning)
Issued at 550 AM CDT Sat Oct 15 2016

Scattered pockets of stratus and fog continue early this morning
and may briefly affect the terminal locations for the first few
hours of the forecast. Surface wind will begin to gusty by mid to
late morning and continue through the afternoon at 18-20 kts.
Should become mostly VFR by late morning and remain that way
through the remainder of the period.


Issued at 245 AM CDT Sat Oct 15 2016

A much warmer air mass will spread over the area to end the
weekend to start early next week. Below are the record highs and
years for Sunday October 16th and Monday October 17th.

October 16th:

City            Record High     Year

Springfield     85              1950
Joplin          88              1995
Vichy/Rolla     87              1950
West Plains     88              1950

October 17th:

City            Record High     Year

Springfield     89              1964
Joplin          88              1964
Vichy/Rolla     89              1950
West Plains     88              1953




CLIMATE...Wise is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.