Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Springfield, MO

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FXUS63 KSGF 040515

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service SPRINGFIELD MO
1215 AM CDT SUN OCT 4 2015

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Sunday)
Issued at 316 PM CDT SAT OCT 03 2015

Low level clouds are slowly spreading from the east into the
eastern Ozarks this afternoon. This is occurring as low level
moisture spreads from an upper level low across the southeastern
U.S. The clouds are expected to continue to spread west to
roughly the Highway 65 corridor overnight and will slowly spread
back to the east on Sunday. There are questions on how far west
the clouds will make it and generally going with the Highway 65

The cloud cover will help keep lows a few degrees warmer
overnight, so have gone slightly cooler over the western portions
of the forecast area than the east due to where the clouds are

The cooler air mass will remain over the area into Sunday with
temperature ranging from the lower 60s across the eastern Ozarks,
where more clouds will be present, to the upper 60s across
southeastern Kansas and far southwestern Missouri.

.LONG TERM...(Sunday Night through Saturday)
Issued at 316 PM CDT SAT OCT 03 2015

Upper level ridging will start to build over the region next week
with a warming trend occurring during the early and middle parts
of the week. Highs in the low to mid 70s will occur on Monday
with highs warming into the lower 80s on Wednesday, which are
above average for early October.

An upper level low will move onto the west coast early next week
and slowly push south into the middle of the week. An upper level
shortwave trough will push out of the Pacific northwest and across
the Central Plains during the middle to end of the week.
Medium range models do not phase the upper level low across the
southwestern U.S. with the northern shortwave trough. As a result
moisture in place ahead of the system will be limited in nature.
Some spotty light rain will still be possible, but due to the
limited moisture, not expecting a washout by any means. There may
be just enough instability for a few rumbles of thunder but no
severe weather is expected.

Medium range models start to differ next weekend. Another upper
level trough will spread east out of the northwest towards the
region. There are questions if the second upper level trough
phases with the southwestern low or not. If the system does not
phase, spotty light rain will be possible again, but if they do
phase better widespread rain chances will occur. Due to
differences in the medium range models confidence in a solution
for next weekend is low.


.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Sunday Night)
Issued at 1207 AM CDT SUN OCT 04 2015

A deck of clouds with ceilings between 2500 and 3500 feet will
continue to move west across southern Missouri overnight.
Prevailing MVFR is expected at Branson for the rest of tonight,
with Springfield bouncing between VFR and MVFR. Joplin should
generally see VFR through sunrise.

MVFR is then expected to continue at Branson and Springfield into
Sunday evening. Joplin is a tougher call as ceilings may remain
just above MVFR thresholds.

Surface winds will remain out of the north to northeast generally
below 10 knots.


.SGF Watches/Warnings/Advisories...


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