Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Springfield, MO

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FXUS63 KSGF 130525

1225 AM CDT Sat Sep 13 2014

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Saturday)
Issued at 323 PM CDT FRI SEP 12 2014

A rather raw day for September across the region. Widespread cloud
cover, a stiff north wind, along areas of drizzle and a few light
showers have kept temperatures in check. Highs have ranged from
the mid 50s in central Missouri to around 60 in southwest
Missouri. With additional moisture entering from the
west/southwest the rest of this afternoon, it appears we have
likely met our high temperatures for the day.

Speaking of this moisture entering the area. It has been tough to
see much in the way of measurable rain. It will take echoes
greater than 35-40 dBz to observe measurable rain, with the lower
echoes producing sprinkles/drizzle. All of the short range models
are insistent that this activity will fall apart this evening as
the trough axis quickly moves to our east. Most areas will see
patchy drizzle with a few showers this evening, with slow clearing
expected from northwest to southeast overnight. Depending on how
quickly we clear, there is the potential for fog development,
particularly in valleys and near bodies of water.

Clearing will continue Saturday morning with sunshine expected the
remainder of the day. The brunt of the incoming airmass will be
spilling into the region. In spite of full afternoon sunshine,
temperatures will only warm into the 60s.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday Night through Friday)
Issued at 323 PM CDT FRI SEP 12 2014

Surface high pressure will hang on over the area Saturday night
and result in decent radiational cooling conditions. Valleys in
the eastern Ozarks will be prone to dropping into the upper 30s,
with everyone else well into the 40s. Southerly winds will help
temperatures rebound into the 70s on Sunday.

As has been advertised so far, another cold front will enter the
region from the northwest on Monday. Have maintained high chance
PoPs with this feature. There is enough instability to support a
continued mention for thunder, though there is no expectation for
strong/severe storms at this point.

Heading into the middle and latter portions of next week,
questions creep into the forecast. The region will be beneath
northwest flow aloft. Our area will be very near the transition
between well below normal temperatures to the east and warmer
temperatures to the southwest. Both the GFS and ECMWF suggest
periodic chances for showers in this transition zone, the question
is just where it will set up. Have kept PoPs near climatology for
now. Temperatures next week look to remain below average at this
point, with 70s during the day and 50s at night.


.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Saturday Night)
Issued at 1156 PM CDT FRI SEP 12 2014

MVFR ceilings will persist into early Saturday morning with
occasional reductions to IFR along with patchy drizzle. There is
still the potential for partial clearing around sunrise at Joplin.
If this happens, a quick reduction to IFR fog is possible. Skies
will then clear later Saturday morning with VFR then persisting
into Saturday evening.




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