Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Springfield, MO

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FXUS63 KSGF 131706
AFDSGF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Springfield MO
1206 PM CDT Sun Aug 13 2017

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Monday)
Issued at 318 AM CDT Sun Aug 13 2017

Warm advection based persistent patchy light rain to be initial
forecast challenge. Wavy flow aloft has provided some support
however very weak low level flow suggests any additional shortwave
support to be minimal and existing showers to diminish by early
morning in line with the HRRR.

Isolated TSRA development later this afternoon cannot be ruled out
but again identifying a shortwave to support lift is a challenge.

Easterly winds will dominate most of the day today keeping temps
unclimatologically cool...with the mercury only climbing a few
degrees higher then on Monday as thicknesses show limited
response.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday through Sunday)
Issued at 318 AM Sun Aug 13 2017

Temperatures will rebound closer to normal levels during the
middle of the week as the upper flow turns a bit more to the
southwest. This will also support a better chance for TSRA as lee
side cyclogenesis occurs and the surface low moves across the
Central Plains Wednesday into Thursday.

Models are then showing differences late in the workweek into the
weekend leading to lowered confidence for the development of any
significant waves/precipitation.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Monday afternoon)
Issued at 1203 PM CDT Sun Aug 13 2017

High pressure over the area with a few remnant rain showers
affecting BBG/SGF terminals. Some stratus/strato cumulus over the
area with MVFR conditions which may linger through the day.
Heading into tonight and especially later tonight, may see more
widespread MVFR/IFR conditions develop with lowering ceilings and
the potential of some fog developing as well.

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Runnels
LONG TERM...Runnels
AVIATION...Lindenberg
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