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000
FXUS63 KSGF 121729
AFDSGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
1229 PM CDT WED JUN 12 2013

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1229 PM CDT WED JUN 12 2013

BREEZY...HOT AND HUMID FORECAST IS ON TRACK. MINOR TWEAKS TO THE
FORECAST FOR HOURLY TRENDS HAVE BEEN PROVIDED...OTHERWISE NO MAJOR
CHANGES TO THE GOING FORECAST ARE REQUIRED.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY)

IT`S GOING TO FEEL LIKE A JULY DAY OVER THE OZARKS AS TEMPERATURES
WARM INTO THE LOW TO MID 90S. DEW POINTS IN THE UPPER 60S AND
LOWER 70S AREN`T HELPING MUCH...PUSHING HEAT INDICES IN THE MIDDLE
AND UPPER 90S.

DIDN`T WE HAVE SNOW LIKE 5 WEEKS AGO ?

SOME RELIEF IS IN SIGHT...AS A FRONTAL SYSTEM FORCES A DRIER AND
COOLER AIRMASS INTO THE REGION TONIGHT. THIS FEATURE IS BEING
DRIVEN BY AN UPPER DISTURBANCE APPROACHING THE CORN BELT THIS
MORNING. A BIG TIME EPISODE OF SEVERE STORMS IS EXPECTED FROM THIS
WAVE ACROSS IOWA...ILLINOIS...AND INDIANA TODAY AND TONIGHT.

FORTUNATELY FOR THE OZARKS...CONDITIONS WILL BE QUIET AND
PEACEFUL...WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS FALLING INTO THE 60S. SHOULD FEEL
MORE COMFORTABLE ONCE THE DRIER AIR SPREADS ACROSS SOUTHERN
MISSOURI.

THURSDAY`S WEATHER LOOKS IDEAL FOR OUTDOOR ACTIVITIES...AS HIGHS
WARM INTO THE 80S AMONGST THE LOWER HUMIDITY.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)

AS WE HEAD INTO FRIDAY...A HUMID AND VERY UNSTABLE AIRMASS WILL
ATTEMPT TO SHIFT BACK INTO SOUTHEAST KANSAS AND FAR WESTERN
MISSOURI. A SHARP 925MB DEW POINT GRADIENT WILL SET UP SOMEWHERE
NEAR THE INTERSTATE 49 CORRIDOR...POTENTIALLY SETTING OFF A STRONG
STORM OR TWO FRIDAY AFTERNOON.

CONVERGENCE ALONG THIS 925 BOUNDARY IS WEAK...AND MODELS OFFER
MIXED LAYER INHIBITION RANGING FROM 25-50 J/KG NEAR THE BOUNDARY.
THIS MAY BE JUST ENOUGH INHIBITION TO MITIGATE UPDRAFTS FROM EXCEEDING
THEIR LEVELS OF FREE CONVECTION. SO NOT CONFIDENT THAT STORMS WILL
FIRE FRIDAY AFTERNOON...BUT THERE IS ENOUGH UNCERTAINTY TO
SUPPORT A SLIGHT CHANCE IN THE FORECAST.

PRECIPITATION CHANCES INCREASE INTO THE WEEKEND AS A COUPLE OF
WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES APPROACH FROM THE WEST.

THE FIRST DISTURBANCE IS ADVERTISED BY SEVERAL MODELS TO TRIGGER
STORMS BY SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT. THIS FEATURE CAN BE VIEWED
ON THE ANIMATED WATER VAPOR OVER OLD MEXICO...IN THE FORM OF A
TROPICAL UPPER TROPOSPHERIC TROUGH (TUTT). SOMETIMES THESE
FEATURES CAN LAY DOWN SOME LOCALIZED HEAVY RAIN...AND COULD ALSO
POSE A RISK FOR A STRONG STORM OR TWO IF UPDRAFTS FEED ON HOT
AFTERNOON PARCELS.

ONE THING WE WANT TO MENTION...THE NEW 00Z ECMWF HAS THIS FEATURE
MAKING A HIGHWAY 60ISH CAMEO SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING.
THIS WOULD POSE A RISK FOR HEAVY RAIN...SINCE THESE TROPICAL
ORIGINATED DISTURBANCES HAVE A TENDENCY TO BREATH IN AT NIGHT...AS
THEY PROGRESS EAST SLOWLY.

ADDITIONAL RAIN CHANCES WILL OCCUR SUNDAY WITH MODELS SHOWING
ANOTHER SHORT WAVE TROUGH MIGRATING IN FROM THE WEST.

THE SUMMERTIME RIDGE WILL STRUGGLE TO MAINTAIN POSITION OVER THE
OZARKS BY SATURDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL BRING
TEMPERATURES BACK DOWN TO SEASONAL NORMALS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1229 PM CDT WED JUN 12 2013

PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERN FOR THIS AFTERNOON IS GUSTY WINDS. STRONG
SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL OCCASIONALLY GUST TO AROUND 30KT AT
JLN/SGF...SLIGHTLY LOWER AT BBG. THESE WINDS WILL SUBSIDE
GRADUALLY THIS EVENING. COLD FRONT IS STILL SLATED TO MOVE THROUGH
THE REGION LATE TONIGHT. LACK OF DEEP LAYER MOISTURE WILL PREVENT
MUCH MORE THAN JUST A BAND OF HIGH CLOUDS MOVING OVER THE REGION.
NORTHERLY WINDS WILL USHER IN A COOLER AND DRIER AIRMASS FOR
THURSDAY.

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...GAGAN
SHORT TERM...CRAMER
LONG TERM...CRAMER
AVIATION...GAGAN