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000
FXUS63 KSGF 050849
AFDSGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
249 AM CST Thu Dec 5 2013

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 249 AM CST THU DEC 5 2013

Surface cold front has pushed through the entire CWA and was
located over the bootheel of Missouri early this morning.
Temperatures were ranging from the mid 20s in west central
Missouri...to the upper 40s over far south central Missouri.
Upper level low was located over North Dakota into southern
Alberta with a 135 to 150 kt jet streak pushing across the central
Rockies into the northern and central Plains. 850 mb front was
shifting into eastern Kansas early this morning and may see a bit
of light freezing rain/drizzle or sleet during the remainder of
the overnight hours north and west of the Interstate 44 corridor.
Little or no measurable acccumulations is expected with this
activity, however a very thin glaze of ice will be possible or a
dusting of sleet if this can materialize.

Main focus with this forecast package will be with wintry
precipitation type initially today along with amounts. The
precipitaton will continue into Friday when it will end from west
to east.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Friday)
Issued at 249 AM CST THU DEC 5 2013

Measurable precipitation will likely begin to develop towards the
late morning into the early afternoon over the southwest corner of
Missouri and should rapidly develop north and east throughout the
afternoon. It appears that a mix of wintry precipitation with
sleet/freezing rain and snow will be possible at the onset of
precipitation mainly south and east of a Rolla to Branson line
with snow north and west of this line. The changeover from mixed
precipitation to snow will gradually shift to the southeast during
the afternoon/evening as the warm nose of air aloft gradually weakens.

The heaviest precipitation will occur along and south of the
interstate 44 corridor with a sharp cutoff to the precipitation
over our northwest CWA. Up to a quarter inch of ice will be
possible south and east of a Gainesville to Eminence line, which
will occur prior to the changeover to all snow during the day and
evening.

Further northwest, periods of moderate to heavy snow will be
possible during the afternoon and early evening before gradually
tapering off by the late evening. A second wave of energy will
then begin to push into the area overnight into Friday which will
bring all snow to the area. Again the predominant location for the
precipitation will be south and east of the Interstate 44 corridor
with the second wave of precipitation.

We have increased the amount of snow forecast over southern
Missouri into the 4 to 8 inch range and will likely extend the
winter storm warning northward by a row of counties with this
forecast package. The heaviest snowfall is expected in a band from
Cassville to Ozark to Hartville. The snowfall will end from west
to east during the day Friday. Temperatures today will range from
the mid 20s to mid 30s with lows tonight from around 15 to 25 and
highs on Friday struggling to get out of the mid 20s.


.LONG TERM...(Friday Night through Wednesday)
Issued at 249 AM CST THU DEC 5 2013

The bitterly cold will then move into the area Friday night with
lows dipping into the single digits most locations and wind chill
values below zero.

Another upper level wave will bring a chance of snow to the area
on Saturday night into Sunday which may bring another 1 to 3
inches of snow to the forecast area.

The unseasonably cold air is expected to linger into the middle of
next week with highs typically in the 20s and lows in the single
digits to teens. Little or no additional precipitation is expected
after the Sunday system pushes east.



&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Thursday Night)
Issued at 1139 PM CST WED DEC 4 2013

Ceilings will continue to hover between high-end IFR and low-end
MVFR for the early overnight period. Flight conditions will then
briefly improve as we approach sunrise. A storm system will then
spread a wintry mix of precipitation into southern Missouri on
Thursday. It appears that a mixture of sleet and snow will change
to all snow at Springfield with precipitation falling from late
morning through the afternoon. Joplin will be right on the
northern edge of the precipitation and will also see a sleet and
snow mixture quickly changing to all snow. Branson will see mixed
precipitation longer before finally changing to all snow from mid
to late afternoon. IFR conditions can be expected with steadier
snow, with LIFR possible at Branson where snow may be moderate to
heavy at times. The snow will then end by early evening with
ceilings remaining in the MVFR to high-end IFR range.


&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...WINTER STORM WARNING from 9 AM this morning to 6 PM CST Friday
     FOR MOZ095>098-101>106.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY from 9 AM this morning to 6 PM CST
     Friday FOR MOZ057-058-069>071-077>083-088>094.

KS...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY from 9 AM this morning to 6 PM CST
     Friday FOR KSZ097-101.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...Lindenberg
SHORT TERM...Lindenberg
LONG TERM...Lindenberg
AVIATION...Schaumann