Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Springfield, MO

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000
FXUS63 KSGF 182046
AFDSGF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Springfield MO
346 PM CDT WED MAY 18 2016

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Friday)
Issued at 313 PM CDT Wed May 18 2016

Upper level low situated over the southwestern states with an
upper level ridge over the Northern Plains. A second low is
currently making its way out of the Gulf of Alaska and is
expected to become cut off over the Pacific Northwest by Friday.
As it does...it will eject the southwest low out into the Southern
Plains.

This system will affect our weather beginning Thursday afternoon
into evening. Greatest PoPs will be located along the Missouri-
Arkansas border with the best chances during the overnight hours
on Thursday with the system exiting the area by late Friday
afternoon. Rainfall amounts will generally range between one-
tenth and one-quarter inch with maybe an isolated rumble of
thunder.

After yet another chilly night tonight...highs on Thursday should
approach 70 and perhaps make it into the lower 70s by Friday.

.LONG TERM...(Friday Night through Wednesday)
Issued at 313 PM CDT Wed May 18 2016

With the exit of this system...high pressure both at the surface
and aloft will build into the region and allow temperatures to
return to more seasonal levels. The weekend looks good with highs
approaching 80 by Sunday.

By Monday...a broad upper level trough of low pressure develops
over the western states with a series of upper level impulses
rotating through. A surface front develops in the lee of the
Rockies on Sunday and stalls out over eastern Kansas by Monday
afternoon.

This will set up an unsettled weather pattern for the remainder of
the forecast period. Expect scattered showers and thunderstorms
Monday through Wednesday. Severe chances are uncertain at this
time but will need to continue to monitor. Temperatures will be
slightly above normal with highs near 80 and overnight lows in the
60s.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Thursday afternoon)

Pilots flying in and out of the southwest Missouri airports can
expect VFR conditions over the next 24 hours.

Breaks in the cloud cover were being observed over the region as a
storm system shifted east.

Meanwhile, northeast breezes ranging from 10 to 20 mph were
measured this afternoon. These wind speeds are expected to become
light and variable this evening and overnight.

No low ceilings or obstructions to visibilities are expected at
this time.

Safe Travels.


&&

.SGF Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Gaede
LONG TERM...Gaede
AVIATION...Cramer



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