Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Springfield, MO

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000
FXUS63 KSGF 161512
AFDSGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
1012 AM CDT Sat Aug 16 2014

.MESOSCALE DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1003 AM CDT SAT AUG 16 2014

Will be upping the ante a bit on storm intensity for this
afternoon in the Hazardous Weather Outlook based on latest
front/clearing trends and fairly high mucapes approaching 5000
j/kg over west central mo/southeast ks in latest NAM40 output.
Have included limited hail risk in addition to maintaining wind risk.

Persisting cloud cover along and south of I-44 will limit
destabilization a bit...but current trends still show partial
clearing through early/mid afternoon.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)

A large area of showers and thunderstorms were ongoing this
morning over much of central and northern Missouri. Nearly all
locations south of Interstate 44 remained dry through the night.

An upper level weakness was drifting slowly into the state, and
will continue to do so through today and tonight. This feature
should provide sufficient lift to trigger additional convection
today, however, the highest concentration of rain will occur north
of I-44, much like this morning.

Suppose we can not rule out a strong storm somewhere, but shear
appears to be weak today. Therefore any robust updrafts that
develop should remain limited in nature. Highs today will range
from the middle 80s in the eastern Ozarks, to the lower 90s in
western Missouri.

Perhaps rainfall will spread across the rest of southern Missouri
tonight as the previously mentioned upper wave presses to the
southeast. We think by Sunday morning, most locations will receive
measurable rainfall.

.LONG TERM...(Sunday through Friday)

Tonight`s wave will force a shot of drier air across the Ozarks
along with a brief period of northerly breezes. This frontal
system will stall out near the Arkansas border, which is
positioned nicely for additional rain chances across southern
Missouri on Sunday and Monday.

A more organized risk for showers and thunderstorms is possible Monday
evening through Tuesday morning as a mid level speed max
approaches from the northwest.

Unfortunately summer is far from over, and models are indicating a
return of hot and humid weather. It appears as though the
summertime ridge will strengthen over the eastern Plains and
Mississippi River Valley from Wednesday through next Friday.

Therefore we have increased afternoon highs into the middle and
upper 90s both Thursday and Friday. With dew points well into the
middle and upper 60s, we think heat indices will breach 100
degrees, and possibly approach 105 degrees in some spots.

We will specifically mention this expected heat wave in this
morning`s Hazardous Weather Outlook.

Have a great Saturday !

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Sunday Morning)
Issued at 606 AM CDT SAT AUG 16 2014

Scattered showers and a few thunderstorms will continue across
southern Missouri early this morning. A brief reduction to MVFR
will be possible with heavier showers. Low level wind shear will
also persist early this morning around Joplin. A break in the
precipitation will then occur from late this morning into early
this afternoon. More showers and thunderstorms are then expected
to develop late this afternoon and this evening as a frontal
boundary pushes into the region. There are then a few weather
models hinting at fog potential late tonight...especially if
rainfall materializes later today.


&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

MESOSCALE...Terry
SHORT TERM...Cramer
LONG TERM...Cramer
AVIATION...Schaumann






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