Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Tulsa, OK

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138
FXUS64 KTSA 221712
AFDTSA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
1212 PM CDT THU SEP 22 2016

.AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM/KROG.
Overall fog potential tonight appears less, though a few spots
could see brief reduction in visibility. VFR conditions will
prevail otherwise.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 1031 AM CDT THU SEP 22 2016/

DISCUSSION...
Overall conditions similar to this time yesterday, save for a
modest downward trend in dew points. Otherwise with no significant
airmass change expect highs once again in upper 80s and lower 90s
with only passing high clouds. Forecast looking good at this point
and no updates planned.

PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 634 AM CDT THU SEP 22 2016/

AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM/KROG.
Some patchy fog will continue for the first hour or two of the
forecast period. Patchy light fog may redevelop late tonight, but
otherwise VFR conditions will prevail from mid morning today
through the rest of the forecast period.

PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 301 AM CDT THU SEP 22 2016/

DISCUSSION...
Unseasonably warm temperatures are expected to continue for the
next few days as high pressure aloft prevails. High temperatures
during this time-frame will be about 10 degrees above normal for
this time of year.

The chances of showers and thunderstorms will increase markedly over
the weekend as an upper level low currently spinning over southern
Oregon moves into the rockies on Friday as the flow becomes increasingly
amplified. This will slow the eastward progression of this feature
as we move into the weekend resulting in a southwesterly flow aloft
across the region. An associated cold front will move through
eastern Oklahoma and western Arkansas on Sunday putting an end to
the unseasonably warm temperatures. The best chances of showers and
thunderstorms will be Saturday night and Sunday as the front moves
through the area. Heavy rain will likely be the biggest concern
during this time. 1 to 3 inches of rain will be fairly common with
this event with locally higher amounts possible. Will end the rain
on Tuesday as the upper level trof finally moves to the east of the area.

TSA Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
OK...None.
AR...None.

$$

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   92  69  91  73 /   0   0  10  10
FSM   93  68  93  72 /   0   0  10  10
MLC   91  68  91  72 /   0   0  10  10
BVO   92  62  91  69 /   0   0  10  10
FYV   87  60  88  67 /   0   0  10  10
BYV   88  63  88  68 /   0   0  10  10
MKO   90  66  91  70 /   0   0  10  10
MIO   89  65  90  70 /   0   0  10  10
F10   90  68  91  72 /   0   0  10  10
HHW   92  67  93  72 /   0   0  10  10

&&

.TSA Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
OK...None.
AR...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...99
LONG TERM....99
AVIATION...14



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