National Weather Service Weather Forecast Office

• Home
• Site Map
• News
• Organization
• Search for: NWS All NOAA 

000
FXUS64 KTSA 132353
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
653 PM CDT THU JUN 13 2013

.AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM.
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS. LIGHT EAST
WINDS WILL GRADUALLY BECOME SOUTHERLY DURING THE DAY FRIDAY.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 334 PM CDT THU JUN 13 2013/

DISCUSSION...
MID LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE CENTRAL CONUS HAS AMPLIFIED SINCE
YESTERDAY...WITH A DEEP TROUGH WEST OF THE ROCKIES. THE H5 CENTER
IS OVER OKLAHOMA TODAY...BUT WILL BE SLIDING SLOWLY EAST AND
WEAKENING WITH TIME AS WE HEAD INTO THE WEEKEND. A MID/UPPER
DISTURBANCE OVER NORTHERN OLD MEXICO WILL MOVE AROUND THE WESTERN
AND EVENTUALLY NORTHERN SIDE OF THE WEAKENING RIDGE OVER THE
WEEKEND. AS THIS WEAKNESS IN THE HEIGHT FIELD AND ITS ASSOCIATED
PLUME OF HIGHER DEEP LAYER MOISTURE MOVES OVERHEAD...THUNDERSTORM
CHANCES WILL INCREASE. THIS MAY OCCUR AS SOON AS SATURDAY
AFTERNOON...AND IT IS THIS TIME THAT DATA SUGGESTS WOULD BE THE
BEST POTENTIAL FOR SEEING SOME SEVERE STORMS. WIND SHEAR DOES
INCREASE SOME OUT OF THE SOUTH AS THE RIDGE SLIDES EAST AND IN
ADVANCE OF THE DISTURBANCE. THE ENVIRONMENT WILL BE VERY UNSTABLE
TO SURFACE PARCELS...WITH CAPES ON THE ORDER OF 4-5K J/KG. STORMS
MAY ORGANIZE INTO ONE OR MORE CLUSTERS AND PERSIST OVERNIGHT
SATURDAY NIGHT AS THE WEAK TROUGH MOVES ACROSS.

IN THE WAKE OF THIS SYSTEM...THE UPPER FLOW BECOMES MORE
NORTHWESTERLY AS HEIGHTS FALL IN THE GREAT LAKES REGION AND THE
ONCE STRONG RIDGE BREAKS DOWN COMPLETELY. A WEAK FRONT IN
ASSOCIATION WITH THE GREAT LAKES SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL DROP DOWN
INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS SUNDAY AND WILL STALL. UPSLOPE FLOW INTO
THE HIGH PLAINS WILL RESULT IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF AN MCS THAT IS
PROGGED TO SWEEP SOUTHEAST INTO THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
MONDAY. THE DATA FROM THE ECMWF REMAINS VERY CONSISTENT WITH THIS
SCENARIO. THE CONVECTIVELY REINFORCED BOUNDARY WILL THEN PUSH
SOUTH MONDAY AND TUESDAY DOWN TO THE RED RIVER VALLEY.

NEW DATA TODAY SUGGESTS THAT THE RIDGE MAY NOT REBUILD QUITE AS
PRONOUNCED AS EARLIER THOUGHT...THOUGH IT DOES APPEAR THERE WILL
BE DRY DAYS FOR THE LATTER PART OF THE WORK WEEK. ANOTHER FRONT
MAY BRING CHANCES FOR STORMS IN THE 8 TO 10 DAY TIME FRAME.

BOTTOM LINE...GOOD RAIN CHANCES AND COOLER TEMPERATURES APPEAR TO
BE IN THE OFFING THIS WEEKEND INTO THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK
WITH A SLOW WARMUP AFTERWARD.

LACY

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

AVIATION...14