Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Tulsa, OK

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FXUS64 KTSA 102040
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
340 PM CDT THU JUL 10 2014

.DISCUSSION...
EARLY MORNING MCS COMBINED WITH CONTINUAL CONVECTION ON WESTERN
PERIPHERY OF THE SYSTEM COLD POOL HAVE YIELDED WIDESPREAD RAINS FOR
AREAS NORTH OF INTERSTATE 40 TODAY. FURTHER SOUTH ACROSS SOUTHEAST
OKLAHOMA CONDITIONS REMAIN STRONGLY UNSTABLE...AND FURTHER
CONVECTION MAY YET DEVELOP ACROSS THIS REGION INTO THE EARLY EVENING
HOURS. THEREAFTER...ANY OVERNIGHT STORMS WILL TEND TOWARD THE
ELEVATED FRONTAL ZONE WHICH WILL CONTINUE TO LIFT NORTHEASTWARD AND
EVENTUALLY CLEAR THE FORECAST AREA.

THE RETURN TO HOT AND HUMID WEATHER WILL BEGIN FRIDAY AND PEAK ON
SUNDAY FOR MUCH OF THE AREA. THE WIDESPREAD RAINS RECEIVED TODAY
WILL LIKELY TEMPER THE HEAT NORTH OF INTERSTATE 40 HOWEVER TRIPLE
DIGIT HEAT IS LIKELY BY SUNDAY AS LOW LEVEL WINDS VEER AND THERMAL
AXIS IS MAGNIFIED JUST AHEAD OF THE NEXT COLD FRONT. ANY PRECIP
CHANCES WILL REMAIN VERY LOW THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND BE CONFINED
TO THE HIGHER TERRAIN.

THE INITIAL COLD FRONT AND/OR CONVECTIVE OUTFLOW WILL PUSH INTO
NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY...AND GRADUALLY WORK
SOUTHWARD WITH A STRONGER PUSH OF COOLER AND DRIER AIR ON TUESDAY.
THIS BOUNDARY WILL BE A FOCUS FOR SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES
AS IT WORKS SOUTHWARD. THE PATTERN ALOFT BECOMES HIGHLY AMPLIFIED
WITH UPPER RIDGING EXTENDING ALONG THE WESTERN STATES AND PUSHING
NEARLY TO THE ARCTIC CIRCLE. THE DOWNSTREAM UPPER LOW
/#NOTPOLARVORTEX/ WILL HELP DRIVE AN UNSEASONABLY COOL AIRMASS
THROUGH THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN STATES. AVERAGE DAILY TEMPERATURES
SOME 10 TO 20 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL LOOK LIKELY FOR MUCH OF THE
FORECAST AREA FOR MID TO LATE IN THE WORK WEEK.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   69  95  76  96 /  20   0   0  10
FSM   69  94  73  95 /  20  10   0  10
MLC   72  93  74  95 /  20   0   0   0
BVO   67  93  72  95 /  20   0   0  10
FYV   67  89  68  91 /  20  10   0  10
BYV   66  89  69  91 /  30  10   0  10
MKO   70  93  72  95 /  20   0   0  10
MIO   68  92  71  94 /  20   0   0  10
F10   71  93  73  95 /  20   0   0   0
HHW   72  94  73  96 /  20  10   0   0

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

LONG TERM....07




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