Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Tulsa, OK

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000
FXUS64 KTSA 171517
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
1017 AM CDT WED SEP 17 2014

...UPDATE...

.DISCUSSION...
AREAS OF FOG ACROSS THE REGION CONTINUE TO DISSIPATE THIS
MORNING...WITH PARTS OF WEST CENTRAL ARKANSAS STILL OBSERVING SOME
LOW CEILINGS/AREAS OF FOG. THIS SHOULD CONTINUE TO LIFT OVER THE
NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS WITH THE ATTENTION TURNING TOWARD CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

A MCS CURRENTLY MOVING ACROSS SOUTHWEST MISSOURI WAS BEGINNING TO
PUSH INTO NORTH CENTRAL ARKANSAS. THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD CONTINUE TO
SHIFT SOUTHEAST OF THE CWA INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS. PRECIP
CHANCES INCREASE THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS FAR EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND
NORTHWEST ARKANSAS AS A WEAK UPPER LEVEL IMPULSE MOVES THROUGH THE
REGION AND INTERACTS WITH A FRONTAL BOUNDARY POSITIONED FROM NORTH
TO SOUTH OVER FAR EASTERN OKLAHOMA. VERTICAL SHEAR AND
INSTABILITY OVER THE REGION COULD ALLOW FOR ANY THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT TO BECOME STRONG TO POTENTIALLY SEVERE.

PARTY CLOUDY SKIES LOOK TO BE COMMON ACROSS THE REGION THIS
AFTERNOON WITH WARMER TEMPS ON THE WESTERN SIDE OF THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY. HIGHS IN UPPER 80S/NEAR 90 DEGREES ARE EXPECTED OVER
THE WESTERN HALF OF THE CWA AND IN THE LOWER 80S FOR MOST OF
NORTHWEST ARKANSAS. MORNING UPDATE WILL BE TO ADJUST MORNING
POPS/WX/SKY GRIDS BASED ON CURRENT TRENDS AND TO CLEAN UP ANY
EARLY MORNING WORDING IN THE ZONES. THE REST OF THE FORECAST SEEMS
TO BE HANDLING WELL.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   89  69  88  69 /  10  30  30  10
FSM   86  68  85  67 /  20  40  40  10
MLC   88  71  87  68 /  10  20  30  10
BVO   90  67  87  67 /  10  40  30  10
FYV   83  65  83  64 /  30  60  40  10
BYV   82  64  80  64 /  50  60  40  10
MKO   87  68  86  67 /  10  20  40  10
MIO   85  67  84  66 /  50  60  40  10
F10   87  69  87  68 /  10  20  30  10
HHW   88  70  88  68 /  10  20  40  10

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...20
LONG TERM....07





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