Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Tulsa, OK

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FXUS64 KTSA 241451
AFDTSA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
951 AM CDT WED AUG 24 2016

...UPDATE...

.DISCUSSION...
Forecast largely on track for today, with the only significant
changes required to the Sky Cover to account for less existing
cloud cover this morning than currently forecast. Any convective
activity this afternoon looks to skirt the northern and western
edges of the forecast area, especially given the expectation of
decreasing dew points and corresponding relative minimum in
instability. Otherwise, expect the first afternoon with
temperatures several degrees above normal for most of the area
since August 11th and 12th.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 631 AM CDT WED AUG 24 2016/

AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM/KROG.
Mid/high clouds will continue today under southwest flow aloft.
Main precipitation is expected to remain north of NE OK TAF sites
this morning. Thunderstorm Prob30 group was added to BVO late
afternoon/early evening. Otherwise, VFR conditions expected
through the forecast period.

PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 351 AM CDT WED AUG 24 2016/

DISCUSSION...
Morning satellite loops show a good deal of convective debris from
yesterday`s storms in the TX panhandle and western OK. The area of
storms weakened as it moved into NE OK Tuesday aftn and most
sites received 0.10" or less of rain. Today another shortwave will
move toward the area...but associated storms will remain north
and west of the CWA. Frontal zone over KS will remain a focus for
convection this afternoon but will make little southward progress.

Some drier air will work into the area by afternoon with
dewpoints dropping off into the upper 60s. However...it will still
feel hot with high temps in the low/mid 90s with less clouds than
yesterday. We will maintain low pops for areas in NE OK tonight
and Thursday just in case some storms form to the southwest and
make it into NE OK. Continued hot and humid for Thursday as
frontal zone moves into NW OK.

Friday would appear to have a higher chance of storms as
additional impulses move through the confluent SW flow aloft.

TSA Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
OK...None.
AR...None.

$$


&&

.TSA Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
OK...None.
AR...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...22



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