Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Tulsa, OK

Home | Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary On
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50
000
FXUS64 KTSA 301942
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE Tulsa OK
242 PM CDT SAT APR 30 2016

.DISCUSSION...

At 2 PM, the surface cold front was draped from just east of the
I-49 corridor in NW AR south to the Arklatex. Moderate instability
/1000-2000 J/KG of CAPE/ resides east of the boundary as it slowly
moves east. 17Z SGF sounding was not impressive from a deep layer
shear perspective as our area resides in a relative minimum in
mid level flow. The latest HRRR suggests some convection
developing on the eastern fringes of the forecast area. This still
suggests severe /mainly hail/ potential will be to the east with
storms moving and maturing east of our area.

The polar front will slide thru the region on Sunday in the wake
of the upper low to our north. Another piece of energy rotating
around the base of the parent western CONUS upper trough will
slide across the central Plains Sunday night...weakening with time
as it shears out. Lift north of the surface front will bring the
best rain chances down south...with lower chances farther north in
association with weakening mid level frontogenetic band.
Instability will be hard to come by this far north of the surface
front...thus maintained only isolated thunder mention in the
southeast.

Fairly tranquil work week expected as upper pattern transitions
to a deep trough over the East and Gulf with ridging over the
Rockies. Rich Gulf moisture will be scoured out by this pattern
and will take many days to return. The next upper trough will
bring storm chances by the latter part of next weekend into early
next week. However...moisture quality will be subpar for early May
standards. Overall severe event may be limited by this.

Lacy

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   47  68  48  67 /   0  10  30  10
FSM   53  75  52  70 /  10   0  50  20
MLC   50  71  51  67 /   0   0  40  10
BVO   46  66  47  66 /   0  10  30  10
FYV   46  70  48  64 /  10   0  30  10
BYV   48  70  48  63 /  10  10  20  10
MKO   49  71  49  66 /   0   0  30  10
MIO   47  67  47  64 /   0  10  20  10
F10   49  70  50  66 /   0   0  30  10
HHW   55  76  54  70 /   0   0  50  20

&&

.TSA Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

LONG TERM....30



USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.