Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Tulsa, OK

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FXUS64 KTSA 171721
AFDTSA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
1221 PM CDT Sun Mar 17 2024

...New AVIATION...

.UPDATE...
Issued at 940 AM CDT Sun Mar 17 2024

Light rain/sprinkles will persist over the next couple of hours,
mostly south of I-40 in eastern Oklahoma and west-central
Arkansas. Measurable precipitation still appears unlikely.
Otherwise, current forecast remains on track through the rest of
the day.

Mejia

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Today)
Issued at 300 AM CDT Sun Mar 17 2024

Cold front, currently located just south of I-44, will push south
of the Red River shortly after sunrise. A few sprinkles will be
possible through mid morning, however no measurable precipitation
expected. Otherwise cool and breezy conditions for this afternoon
behind front.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Tonight through Saturday)
Issued at 300 AM CDT Sun Mar 17 2024

A secondary surge of colder air expected this evening into the
overnight hours. Temperatures will likely fall below freezing by
Monday morning across most of northeast Oklahoma/northwest
Arkansas, potentially including portions of the Tulsa metro.

The unseasonably cool weather will continue on Monday with high
temperatures only in the upper 40s to mid 50s as surface high
pressure continues to build into the southern Plains. Portions of
far northeast Oklahoma and northwest Arkansas will likely see
another freeze Monday night as winds remain light before surface
high shifts southeast early Tuesday morning.

Models remain in good agreement with moving upper low out of the
desert Southwest Wednesday into Thursday with increasing precipitation
chances as scattered showers spread across eastern Oklahoma and
northwest Arkansas. A few isolated thunderstorms will also be
possible, however instability will likely remain modest during
this time as upper system continues to weaken.

Temperature forecast becomes a little more uncertain late week
into the early part of next weekend with significant differences
in the GFS and ECMWF concerning timing of next cold front. This
also includes a larger than normal spread in the ensemble members.
Did raise high temperatures a few degrees from NBM, especially on
Friday, given the much warmer EC solution. Otherwise, no other
significant changes.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1221 PM CDT Sun Mar 17 2024

VFR conditions will prevail at all TAF sites through the next 24
hours. Mid/upper level clouds will gradually clear north-to-south
this afternoon with gusty north/northeast winds persisting at the
surface. Winds will subside this evening and overnight tonight
and then increase again by mid-late Monday morning.

Mejia

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   63  31  54  35 /   0   0   0   0
FSM   65  35  54  32 /  10   0   0   0
MLC   65  35  55  34 /  30   0   0   0
BVO   63  27  53  28 /   0   0   0   0
FYV   62  27  49  30 /   0   0   0   0
BYV   59  29  47  30 /   0   0   0   0
MKO   63  31  51  32 /  10   0   0   0
MIO   59  27  48  30 /   0   0   0   0
F10   63  33  54  33 /  20   0   0   0
HHW   65  39  56  32 /  20   0   0   0

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...None.
AR...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...12
LONG TERM....12
AVIATION...67


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