Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Tulsa, OK

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000
FXUS64 KTSA 250921
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
321 AM CST SUN JAN 25 2015

.DISCUSSION...
COLD FRONT CURRENTLY ENTERING OSAGE COUNTY WILL SWEEP ACROSS THE
AREA TODAY...BRINGING GUSTY NWLY WINDS AND COOLER TEMPERATURES. MAY
SEE SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS OVER FAR NE OK/NW AR THIS MORNING...BUT
OF MORE CONCERN WILL BE THE INCREASING FIRE DANGER THREAT.
TEMPERATURES AND RH VALUES WILL REMAIN ABOVE RED FLAG WARNING
CRITERIA...BUT THE GUSTY WINDS ALONG WITH AFTERNOON RH VALUES
DIPPING BELOW 40 PERCENT WILL RESULT IN AN INCREASING FIRE SPREAD
POTENTIAL. PARTS OF NE OK PRIMARILY NW OF I-44 SHOULD SEE A FEW
GUSTS NEAR OR ABOVE 40 MPH...SO WILL PLAN ON A WIND ADVISORY FROM
MID-MORNING THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON.

THE COOLER WEATHER WILL ONLY LAST A DAY...AS WLY WINDS/DOWNSLOPE
CONDITIONS WILL HELP BOOST MONDAY AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES WELL ABOVE
SEASONAL NORMS ONCE AGAIN. NUMERICAL GUIDANCE LOOKS A BIT COOL...AND
HAVE GONE A FEW DEGREES ABOVE THE WARMEST NUMBERS. COULD SEE A FEW
SPOTS ACROSS ERN OK PUSHING 70F FOR A HIGH. TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY
LOOKING EVEN WARMER UNDER MID-LEVEL RIDGING CONDITIONS. EXPECT HIGHS
BOTH DAYS TO RANGE FROM THE MID/UPPER 60S FOR NW AR/FAR ERN
OK...WITH LOWER 70S FOR MUCH OF ERN OK. WOULDN/T BE SURPRISED TO SEE
A FEW LOCATIONS WEST OF HIGHWAY 75 PUSH THE MID 70S ON TUESDAY.

A COLD FRONT WILL ARRIVE ON THURSDAY...WITH TEMPERATURES RETURNING
TO NEAR OR SLIGHTLY BELOW SEASONAL NORMS GOING INTO NEXT WEEKEND.
LONGER RANGE MODELS CONTINUE TO STRUGGLE HANDLING THE
ACTIVE/AMPLIFIED FLOW NEXT WEEKEND...WITH CONFIDENCE REMAINING VERY
LOW CONCERNING RETURN MOISTURE/PRECIPITATION/PRECIPITATION TYPE
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. GFS HAS REMAINED CONSISTENT BRINGING SRN
STREAM MOISTURE INTO AT LEAST THE SRN HALF OF THE AREA LATER FRIDAY
THROUGH SATURDAY...ALTHOUGH IT/S THERMAL PROFILES ARE A BIT WARMER
THAN PREVIOUS RUNS. WILL CONTINUE TO TAKE A RATHER CONSERVATIVE
APPROACH WITH POPS...AS ECMWF ALSO REMAINS CONSISTENT KEEPING THE
BETTER MOISTURE S OF THE REGION. AT THIS TIME...ANY WINTRY
PRECIPITATION FOR NEXT WEEKEND APPEARS LIGHT...BUT WE`LL CONTINUE TO
MONITOR AND FINE TUNE THROUGH NEXT WEEK.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   56  31  68  38 /  10   0   0   0
FSM   55  33  62  38 /  10   0   0   0
MLC   59  31  67  40 /   0   0   0   0
BVO   55  30  67  35 /  10   0   0   0
FYV   49  29  56  36 /  20  10   0   0
BYV   48  30  55  37 /  30  10   0   0
MKO   56  32  65  39 /  10   0   0   0
MIO   51  28  63  34 /  20   0   0   0
F10   57  33  66  41 /   0   0   0   0
HHW   61  34  68  39 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...WIND ADVISORY FROM 9 AM SUNDAY TO 4 PM SUNDAY FOR OKZ054-OKZ055-
     OKZ059-OKZ064.

AR...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...10
LONG TERM....18





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