Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Tulsa, OK

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188
FXUS64 KTSA 200200
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
900 PM CDT TUE MAY 19 2015

.DISCUSSION...
STALLED FRONT LOCATED NEAR THE INTERSTATE 40 CORRIDOR THIS EVENING...
WHICH HAS BEEN REINFORCED AT LEAST TEMPORARILY BY RAIN COOLED OUTFLOW.
AIR-MASS REMAINS MODERATELY UNSTABLE ACROSS FAR SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA
WITH VERY HIGH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES AROUND 1.8 INCHES. ALL
SHORT TERM MODEL GUIDANCE AND RADAR TRENDS SUGGEST CONVECTIVE
COMPLEX WILL PUSH INTO SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA LATER THIS EVENING INTO
THE OVERNIGHT HOURS WITH FLOODING A SIGNIFICANT CONCERN. INCREASED
QPF AMOUNTS ACROSS AFOREMENTIONED AREA WITH WIDESPREAD 2 TO 3
INCHES LIKELY. A LIMITED SEVERE THREAT WILL ALSO CONTINUE ACROSS
THIS AREA...HOWEVER DEEP LAYER SHEAR DECREASES THE FURTHER EAST YOU
GO. UPDATE OUT SHORTLY.


&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL NOON WEDNESDAY FOR OKZ049-OKZ053-OKZ054-
     OKZ055-OKZ056-OKZ057-OKZ058-OKZ059-OKZ060-OKZ061-OKZ062-
     OKZ063-OKZ064-OKZ065-OKZ066-OKZ067-OKZ068-OKZ069-OKZ070-
     OKZ071-OKZ072-OKZ073-OKZ074-OKZ075-OKZ076.

AR...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...12






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