Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Tulsa, OK

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825
FXUS64 KTSA 150536
AFDTSA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
1136 PM CST Sun Jan 14 2018

.AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM/KROG.
A cold front will move south across the area late tonight and
Monday morning, with gusty north winds developing following the
frontal passage. A band of snow will affect the northeast Oklahoma
and far northwest Arkansas sites late tonight and Monday morning,
with the greatest impacts at KBVO and KROG, where occasional IFR
conditions will occur. MVFR ceilings will be common for a few
hours at most other sites, with VFR conditions returning Monday
afternoon and evening.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 839 PM CST Sun Jan 14 2018/

DISCUSSION...
Latest data continue to suggest the next surge of arctic air will
move into northeastern Oklahoma late tonight and spread across
remainder of area on Monday. Isentropic upglide over the cold air and
some frontogentical forcing will result in a band of snow behind the
front developing into far nern OK after 3 am and then gradually
spreading southward across much of nern OK and nwrn AR Monday
morning. Last several runs of various rapid refresh models suggest
accmulations may be a little heavier than earlier expected with some
guidance showing as much as 3" totals across far nern OK near the KS
border. Temps falling into the low/mid 20s during the day tomorrow
will result in bigger impacts on the roads than we normally see with
even light snow accumulations. The advisory we issued is for the area
we have the most confidence in seeing greater than 1" snow
accumulations by tomorrow afternoon and/or the area most likely to
see icy roads with slightly lesser amounts. Advisory area may be
adjusted in later forecasts.

Wind chill values are expected to fall into the teens across much of
nern OK and nwrn AR Monday afternoon with dangerously cold values
expected Tuesday morning across much of the region. Future advisories
likely for wind chill as well.

We made some upward adjustments to snow amounts, qpf, and pops in the
area we issed the advisory for, otherwise ongoing forecast is
trending well at this time.

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...Winter Weather Advisory from 3 AM to 3 PM CST Monday for
     OKZ054>058-063.

AR...Winter Weather Advisory from 3 AM to 3 PM CST Monday for ARZ001-
     002.

&&

$$

AVIATION.....05



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