Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Tulsa, OK

Home | Current Version | Previous Version | Graphics & Text | Print | Product List | Glossary Off
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50

000
FXUS64 KTSA 211605
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
1005 AM CST FRI NOV 21 2014

...UPDATE...

.DISCUSSION...
AT MID MORNING A WEAK MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE WAS MOVING NORTHEAST
THROUGH THE OKLAHOMA TEXAS PANHANDLES...WHILE A NEARLY STATIONARY
FRONTAL BOUNDARY FROM LAST NIGHT NEAR THE RED RIVER WAS BEGINNING
TO LIFT NORTHWARD AS A WARM FRONT. AHEAD OF THE SHORTWAVE AND WARM
FRONT...SOME SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS HAD DEVELOPED OVER NORTHEAST
OKLAHOMA WITHIN AN AREA OF WARM AIR ADVECTION. THIS ACTIVITY WAS
LIFTING NORTHEAST WITH THE MOVEMENT OF THE SHORTWAVE. ACROSS THE
REST OF EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS...CLOUDY
CONDITIONS WITH EASTERLY WINDS WERE COMMON OVER MOST OF THE CWA.

THE WARM FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO LIFT NORTHWARD THROUGH THE CWA THIS
AFTERNOON AND EXIT INTO KANSAS/MISSOURI THIS EVENING. SOUTHERLY
WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT WILL HELP TO STREAM MOISTURE BACK INTO THE
REGION WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE 50S ALREADY BEING OBSERVED OVER FAR
SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA. THIS WILL AID IN THE CONTINUED CHANCE FOR RAIN
SHOWERS THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING. ALONG AND BEHIND THE FRONT...AN
ISOLATED CHANCE OF THUNDER WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE. TEMPERATURES
ACROSS THE CWA SHOULD ALSO RISE SOME BEHIND THE FRONT WITH HIGHS
IN THE 50S TO LOW 60S COMMON FROM NORTH TO SOUTH. PARTS OF
NORTHWEST ARKANSAS COULD BE LAST TO SEE THE FRONTAL PASSAGE...THUS
HIGHS COULD BE A FEW DEGREES COOLER.

MORNING UPDATE WILL BE TO ADJUST POPS/WX GRIDS BASES ON CURRENT
TRENDS AND TO KEEP THUNDER CHANCES ALONG/BEHIND THE FRONT THIS
AFTERNOON. THE REST OF THE FORECAST SEEMS TO BE HANDLING WELL AT
THIS TIME. ADDITIONAL PRECIP CHANCES WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT THROUGH
THE WEEKEND AS ANOTHER WAVE CURRENTLY DIVING SOUTHEASTWARD INTO
NORTHERN MEXICO IS EXPECTED TO LIFT INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   57  54  62  54 /  50  50  70  50
FSM   55  50  62  53 /  50  50  60  70
MLC   61  56  61  54 /  40  60  70  70
BVO   55  51  62  53 /  70  50  60  50
FYV   54  50  59  53 /  50  50  60  70
BYV   50  47  60  52 /  40  40  50  70
MKO   56  52  61  54 /  40  60  80  60
MIO   55  51  61  53 /  80  40  60  60
F10   59  55  61  54 /  40  60  80  60
HHW   62  54  63  55 /  60  70  70  80

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...20
LONG TERM....30





USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.