Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Tulsa, OK

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000
FXUS64 KTSA 050454
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
1154 PM CDT SAT JUL 4 2015

.AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM/KROG.
REDUCED VIS AND LOW CEILINGS LIKELY TO SPREAD ACROSS NW ARKANSAS
AND POTENTIALLY SE OKLAHOMA TONIGHT WITH IFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE
THROUGH MID MORNING. SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES LESS CERTAIN
OVERNIGHT THOUGH ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED DEVELOPMENT SUN
AFTERNOON.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 941 PM CDT SAT JUL 4 2015/

..UPDATE...

DISCUSSION...
COMPOSITE OUTFLOW HAS PUSHED SOUTH AND WEST OF THE FORECAST AREA
FOR THE TIME BEING...AND WITH DIURNAL STABILIZATION UNDERWAY THE
CHANCE FOR ADDITIONAL EVENING STORMS IS LOW. OVERNIGHT CONVECTION
IN THE HIGH PLAINS HAS A CHANCE TO PROPOGATE THIS FAR EAST LATE
TONIGHT...WITH ALSO LOW CHANCES OF SUFFICIENT UPGLIDE DEVELOPING
TO SPARK A FEW OVERNIGHT STORMS. BOTH INSTANCES WARRANT LOW
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES AFTER MIDNIGHT. LOW TEMPS ACROSS SE OK HAVE
BEEN IMPACTED BY EVENING STORMS...OTHERWISE PREVIOUS FORECAST IS
ON TRACK.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   73  92  77  92 /  20  20  10  10
FSM   71  92  73  91 /  20  20  20  10
MLC   73  90  75  90 /  20  20  10  10
BVO   68  92  73  90 /  20  20  10  20
FYV   65  86  69  86 /  20  20  10  10
BYV   66  87  70  87 /  10  20  10  10
MKO   71  89  73  89 /  20  20  10  10
MIO   69  91  73  89 /  20  20  10  10
F10   72  90  75  89 /  20  20  10  10
HHW   71  90  74  91 /  20  40  20  10

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...99
LONG TERM....99
AVIATION...14


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