Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Tulsa, OK

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000
FXUS64 KTSA 200454
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
1154 PM CDT SUN OCT 19 2014

.AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM.
FOR THE 6Z TAFS... THERE WILL BE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAINFALL... WITH
PERHAPS AN EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORM AT NORTHEASTERN OKLAHOMA AND
NORTHWEST ARKANSAS SITES THIS MORNING. BRIEF MVFR CEILINGS WILL
ALSO BE POSSIBLE AT NORTHWEST ARKANSAS SITES DURING THE MORNING AS
WELL. OTHERWISE... VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT ALL SITES.



&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 908 PM CDT SUN OCT 19 2014/

..UPDATE...

DISCUSSION...
A COUPLE OF ISOLATED RAIN SHOWERS HAVE DEVELOPED AND WERE MOVING
EASTWARD ALONG THE OKLAHOMA KANSAS BORDER THIS EVENING. ADDITIONAL
SHOWERS ALONG WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF A THUNDERSTORM WILL REMAIN
POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT AS WARM ADVECTION AND A 20KT LLJ SETS UP OVER
THE CWA...AHEAD OF A SHORTWAVE APPROACHING WITHIN WEST
NORTHWESTERLY UPPER LEVEL FLOW. LATEST LOCAL IN-HOUSE MODEL RUNS
AND ALSO THE HRRR HAVE BEEN INDICATING A LITTLE MORE SOUTHWARD
PROGRESSION OF ANY PRECIP THAT FORMS OVERNIGHT. LATEST NAM SHOWS
THE LLJ DEVELOPING A BIT FURTHER SOUTH AS WELL. THUS...HAVE
EXTENDED POPS SOUTHWARD AND INTO NORTHWEST ARKANSAS FOR THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS. THE REST OF THE FORECAST SEEMS TO BE HANDLING
WELL...WITH SKIES BECOMING PARTLY/MOSTLY CLOUDY AS PRECIP DEVELOPS
AND THUS KEEPING TEMPS WARMER OVERNIGHT COMPARED TO LAST NIGHT.

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

AVIATION...06




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