Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Tulsa, OK

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000
FXUS64 KTSA 212107
AFDTSA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
407 PM CDT Sat Oct 21 2017

.DISCUSSION...
There is little change to the forecast scenario for tonight.
Initial storm development is underway to our west and northwest,
and these storms will congeal into a linear system this evening,
and then race east across eastern Oklahoma and northwest Arkansas
later this evening and overnight. Damaging winds will be the
greatest severe weather threat in our area, although isolated QLCS
tornadoes will also be possible. Widespread 1 to 2 inch rainfall
amounts will also occur, with locally higher amounts.

The showers and storms will be ending by early Sunday morning,
with fairly tranquil weather then expected through Thursday. A dry
cold front will sweep across the area late Monday, with another
stronger front moving through the area late Thursday into Friday
in association with a large upper trof moving into the plains.
Some light precipitation may occur Friday with this trof, followed
by clearing skies and cool temperatures by next weekend. There is
a good chance many places will see their first frost and freeze of
the season by next weekend.

Stayed close to guidance temperatures the next couple days.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   52  74  46  76 / 100   0   0   0
FSM   58  72  45  78 / 100  40   0   0
MLC   54  72  45  79 / 100  10   0   0
BVO   50  74  39  76 / 100   0   0   0
FYV   54  64  40  72 / 100  30   0   0
BYV   55  65  43  73 / 100  40   0   0
MKO   53  71  45  77 / 100  10   0   0
MIO   52  69  43  74 / 100  10   0   0
F10   53  72  46  78 / 100   0   0   0
HHW   58  74  46  80 / 100  20   0   0

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...None.
AR...None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...18
LONG TERM....05

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