Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Tulsa, OK

Home | Current Version | Previous Version | Graphics & Text | Print | Product List | Glossary Off
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50

FXUS64 KTSA 162317

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
617 PM CDT Sat Sep 16 2017

VFR conditions to prevail through the TAF period. Have opted for a
VCTS for a few hours overnight at KBVO with potential convection
that would be associated with an approaching surface front and
mid level moisture axis.


.PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 335 PM CDT Sat Sep 16 2017/

Persistent mid level moisture plume extends from northern Mexico
through central OK and well north into the Midwest the afternoon,
with a recent uptick in intensity of convection noted across
north central OK. At the surface, a cold front stretched from
north central KS into the OK/TX panhandles and expect additional
storms to develop along the boundary this afternoon. Upper low
will continue moving east across the northern plains tonight and
Sunday, driving the moisture plume and frontal boundary south
into northeast OK and pars of northwest AR with a resultant
increase in precip chances later this evening. Frontal zone will
likely linger over the forecast area through Sunday at least with
showers and thunderstorm chances continuing mainly from about
I-40 north.

Deepening upper level trough in the western U.S. along with
increasingly diffuse nature of frontal zone will result in lesser
chances of storms early next week with breezy and very warm
conditions continuing, particularly Tuesday as surface low
pressure deepens to the west. Another weaker surface boundary will
push into the area by Wednesday. but substantial warming of the
mid levels by that time likely to cap any thunderstorm potential,
and thus have maintained a dry forecast for Wed. This pattern
will persist into next weekend it appears, with limited chances of
storms across western areas late in the week with temperatures
remaining above normal.




AVIATION...23 is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.