Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Tulsa, OK

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000
FXUS64 KTSA 162059
AFDTSA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
259 PM CST Tue Jan 16 2018

.DISCUSSION...

The main items of interest will be the cold tonight, the fairly
quick warm-up expected this week as the pattern changes, and
finally rain chances this weekend with the next storm system.

Arctic high pressure resides over the Plains today, the center of
which was over Kansas this afternoon. The high center will drift
southeast over our area tonight. With clear skies and subsiding
winds, expect another very cold night. Wind chill headlines will
be allowed to expire this afternoon and will not be continued
tonight due to the subsiding winds. The coldest lows should be
over the snow pack near the KS/MO borders, with readings expected
to drop below zero.

The upper flow pattern will undergo some pretty big changes as the
week progresses. The persistent La Nina ridge in the west, trough
in the east pattern this winter will be flipped. The upper jet
will lift north and a fairly quick warm-up will then ensue. Highs
in the 50s and 60s can be expected by the end of the week.

A progressive shortwave trough will move into the Plains by the
latter part of next weekend. There will be enough moisture return
to warrant some PoPs for showers. Instability will be weak, but
enough to go with the previous forecast of isolated thunder. Will
hold off on likely or higher PoPs until a clear signal of timing
and areal coverage can be determined. Warm sector precip can
sometimes be hard to come by this time of year.

Temps will cool down some going into early next week, but the
front will be more of a Pacific origin, and thus not nearly as
cold as what we`re seeing now.

Lacy

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL    5  33  20  48 /   0   0   0   0
FSM    8  34  16  47 /   0   0   0   0
MLC    4  33  18  47 /   0   0   0   0
BVO   -3  31  13  51 /   0   0   0   0
FYV    1  30  13  43 /   0   0   0   0
BYV   -2  27  17  44 /   0   0   0   0
MKO    4  33  18  47 /   0   0   0   0
MIO   -3  27  16  45 /   0   0   0   0
F10    5  33  20  48 /   0   0   0   0
HHW    8  31  16  43 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...Wind Chill Advisory until 4 PM CST this afternoon for OKZ056>058-
     063.

AR...Wind Chill Advisory until 4 PM CST this afternoon for ARZ001-002-
     010-011.

&&

$$

LONG TERM....30



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