Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Tulsa, OK

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000
FXUS64 KTSA 180316
AFDTSA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
916 PM CST Fri Nov 17 2017

...UPDATE...

.DISCUSSION...
At mid evening...the cold front was positioned across Eastern
Colorado to Eastern Kansas with a dryline extending southwest from
the surface low through Western Oklahoma and Central Texas.
Scattered showers/convection had developed near the cold front
with gusty northerly winds behind the front. To the south and
east of the surface boundaries...partly to mostly cloudy skies and
gusty south- southwesterly winds were common across Eastern
Oklahoma and Northwest Arkansas. Temps also remained in the upper
60s to mid 70s over the CWA.

Through tonight...the cold front will continue to push southeast
and is forecast to enter into Northeast Oklahoma around 09z and
reaching the far northwest corner of Arkansas around 12z. The
ongoing showers/convection across Colorado/Kansas should continue
to shift eastward...remaining near the vicinity of the triple
point/surface low...into Missouri by Saturday morning. For now
will continue with pops below mentionable criteria...though latest
hrrr run tries to pull a few light rain showers near the
Oklahoma/Kansas border with the front.

Temperatures during the night ahead of the front should remain
warm with 60s/around 70 degrees holding common across the CWA.
Once the front moves into the CWA...drier air and gusty northerly
winds 20-35mph within a much colder airmass will help to drop
temps into upper 40s & 50s for lows across Northeast Oklahoma into
far Northwest Arkansas. Lows in the upper 50s/low 60s look to
hold for Southeast Oklahoma into West Central Arkansas. Have
adjusted hourly temps/dewpoints up slightly to slow the rate of
cooling underneath the cloud cover ahead of the front for the
evening update. Otherwise...current forecast seems to be in good
shape with the mentioned above. Also...will continue with current
wind advisory starting at 12z Saturday.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   52  56  34  59 /  10  10   0   0
FSM   62  64  36  59 /  10  10   0   0
MLC   58  61  35  59 /   0   0   0   0
BVO   49  56  30  59 /  10  10   0   0
FYV   56  59  31  53 /  10  20   0   0
BYV   57  60  34  52 /  10  30   0   0
MKO   55  58  34  57 /   0  10   0   0
MIO   50  53  33  56 /  10  20   0   0
F10   54  56  35  58 /   0  10   0   0
HHW   63  65  36  60 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...Wind Advisory from 6 AM to 5 PM CST Saturday for OKZ049-053>076.

AR...Wind Advisory from 6 AM to 5 PM CST Saturday for ARZ001-002-010-
     011-019-020-029.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...20
AVIATION.....18


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