Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Tulsa, OK

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FXUS64 KTSA 242306

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
606 PM CDT Wed May 24 2017

Brief MVFR vsbys in fog are possible late tonight across NW AR
...otherwise VFR conditions will prevail through the TAF period
at all sites.


.PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 328 PM CDT Wed May 24 2017/

Upper level low centered over southern Missouri this afternoon
will move east through Thursday morning with waning influence on
our weather. Should see skies clear this evening with another
chilly night by late May standards, before a rapid warmup Thursday
afternoon with increasing south winds. Low level moisture will
increase significantly by Friday and especially Saturday with
flow from the Gulf bringing very warm and humid airmass north.
Nocturnal MCS activity likely at the north edge of moisture plume
Thu/Fri nights mainly remaining north.

Frontal boundary will be in the area Friday with strongly capped
airmass and generally weak forcing keeping thunderstorm chances
low, but any storms that could form would have severe weather
potential. Bigger concern looks to be Saturday as surface front
and dry line better established across central/eastern OK.
Operational NAM/GFS both show dew points in the upper 70s across
eastern OK Saturday afternoon, which may only be slightly overdone
given quality of airmass expected to move north, and perhaps some
help from evapotranspirtaion. Extreme CAPE values seem likely in
this scenario with strong enough mid level flow educed by
shortwave moving across northern states to raise concerns for
significant severe weather Saturday afternoon through Saturday
night. At least locally torrential rainfall is also possible.

Front expected to sweep south of the area Sunday with the latter
half of the holiday weekend looking nice in most areas.
Thunderstorm chances look to return by the middle of next week
with slightly below normal temperatures to close out
climatological spring.




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