Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Tulsa, OK

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FXUS64 KTSA 171128
AFDTSA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
528 AM CST Sat Feb 17 2018

.AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM/KROG.
Widespread MVFR/IFR cigs will continue this morning as a large
area of rain exits the area. Expect improvement in ceilings
after 16-18Z.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 417 AM CST Sat Feb 17 2018/

DISCUSSION...
Something we haven`t seen in a while...widespread light to
moderate rain... continues to move across northeast OK into
northwest AR early this morning. Enhanced reflectivity now seen
moving east of I-35 should bring a good shot of rainfall to parts
of northeast OK over next few hours, while more convective
elements spreading into southeast OK have featured a few lightning
strikes. Some sfc obs across western OK have seen a switch to UP
or -SN (more likely sleet) as the heavier band moved through. Dew
points have risen above freezing in most areas and forecast
soundings from earlier suggested wet-bulb zero heights should be a
bit high for any frozen precip this far east...but something to
keep an eye on early this morning in any case. Rain will move out
by late morning with a warmer day in store.

Large scale pattern change of western CONUS trough will lead to a
more unsettled pattern reminiscent of early spring for most of
the next week. Moisture will begin to surge back north late
Sunday with a few showers possible in the far south late in the
day. Gusty south winds will result in limited fire weather danger,
mainly across northern areas where moisture return lags behind.
Increasing chance of showers and isolated thunderstorms continue
Sunday night and Monday as moist flow continues. Increased
moisture should help offset fire weather danger in most areas
Monday despite strong and gusty south winds and much above normal
temperatures.

Rain chances will become more focused Monday night into Tuesday
with the arrival of a strong cold front. Model differences remain
with timing of front and how much precip continues to the north
of the boundary later Tuesday. Depending on how this plays out,
some winter weather potential may exist Tuesday night or Wednesday
morning, but at this time it does not look like a high-impact
event. Much cooler weather Wednesday followed by a quick warm up
and additional rain chances late next week.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   61  37  64  58 /  30   0   0  40
FSM   55  35  62  54 /  90   0  10  50
MLC   58  37  62  57 /  70   0  10  50
BVO   61  31  65  56 /  20   0   0  30
FYV   52  33  59  55 /  90   0  10  50
BYV   51  32  60  53 /  90   0   0  40
MKO   58  36  63  55 /  70   0  10  50
MIO   58  33  64  56 /  90   0   0  40
F10   58  36  63  56 /  30   0  10  40
HHW   57  40  59  56 /  90   0  30  50

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...None.
AR...None.
&&

$$


AVIATION.....18



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