Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Tulsa, OK

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000
FXUS64 KTSA 152049
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
349 PM CDT MON SEP 15 2014

.DISCUSSION...
SPLOTCHY SHOWERS..SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 44 DEPICTED
BY RADAR SHOW LITTLE ORGANIZATION. NARROW LINE OF
DEVELOPING SHOWERS WANNA BE THUNDER...FROM SOUTH-
WEST MISSOURI THROUGH SOUTHEAST KANSAS..TO NORTH-
WEST OKLAHOMA WITH THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY.

FRONT WILL SAG SOUTH..INTO THE NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA
TONIGHT AND BRING A CHANCE FOR ADDITIONAL SHOWERS
OR ISOLATED THUNDER. GENERIC CHANCE POPS CARRIED.

FRONTAL BOUNDARY IN THE VICINITY OF RED RIVER ON
TUESDAY. LOW POPS MAINLY SOUTH.  STEEP NORTHWEST
FLOW BRINGS OUR NEXT UPPER DISTURBANCE WHICH WILL
YIELD CHANCE SHOWERS/THUNDER MAINLY NORTHEAST OK
AND NORTHWEST AR.  FINALLY..DRY OUT FOR A DAY OR
DAY AND A HALF FRIDAY.

BOTH ECMWF GFS MODELS BRING TROPICAL MOISTURE TO
THE SOUTHERN PLAINS OVER THE WEEKEND. UPPER WAVE
& FRONT PICK UP TROPICAL STORM REMNANTS WHILE...
MOISTURE LURKING IN TEXAS ALSO PICKED UP. TIMING
DIFFERENCES WITH MODELS.   SOMETIME THIS WEEKEND
WE SEE A VERY HEAVY...BUT NEEDED RAINFALL.
GW

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   64  80  68  86 /  30  20  20  30
FSM   66  83  68  85 /  30  20  10  40
MLC   65  83  68  85 /  30  20  10  20
BVO   61  80  64  85 /  30  10  20  20
FYV   62  77  62  80 /  30  20  20  50
BYV   61  73  61  78 /  30  20  20  50
MKO   64  80  67  84 /  30  20  20  30
MIO   60  77  62  82 /  30  10  30  50
F10   64  81  67  86 /  30  20  20  20
HHW   68  86  69  85 /  30  20  10  20

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...14
LONG TERM....21




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