Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Tulsa, OK

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000
FXUS64 KTSA 202344
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
644 PM CDT WED MAY 20 2015

.AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM/KROG.
MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TONIGHT WITH IMPROVING CONDITIONS
ON THURSDAY.


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 300 PM CDT WED MAY 20 2015/

DISCUSSION...
ALL PRECIPITATION HAS EXITED THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON... LEAVING
MOST OF THE AREA THOROUGHLY WATERLOGGED. A BRIEF DRYING OUT AND
RUN-OFF PERIOD WILL LAST INTO FRIDAY MORNING. AT THAT TIME...
ANOTHER ROUND OF WIDESPREAD HEAVY RAINFALL WILL MOVE ACROSS EASTERN
OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN ARKANSAS... LASTING THROUGH MONDAY.
PRECIPITABLE WATER FORECASTS AND QPF ALL POINT TO A GOOD CHANCE FOR
AREAS OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL... THE WORST OF WHICH WILL LIKELY BE
CONCENTRATED IN A WEST TO EAST BAND SOMEWHERE ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA.

THE BULK OF RAINFALL OVER THE PAST DAY OR SO HAS BEEN CONCENTRATED
IN A WIDE SWATH GENERALLY ALONG AND SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 40. MUCH OF
THIS AREA RECEIVED 4 TO 6 OR MORE INCHES OF RAIN IN A RELATIVELY
SHORT PERIOD OF TIME. THIS HAS CAUSED SIGNIFICANT FLOODING AND THE
RUNOFF CONTINUES TO PUT A STRAIN ON FLOOD CONTROL EFFORTS.

CURRENTLY... THE NEXT ROUND OF HEAVIEST RAINFALL... AND LIKELY
ADDITIONAL FLOODING ISSUES... IS FORECAST TO BE CONCENTRATED MOSTLY
IN THE AREA JUST TO THE NORTH OF THE REGION THAT GOT POUNDED OVER THE
PAST DAY OR SO. THIS WOULD AT LEAST DISTRIBUTE THE FLOODING ISSUES
OVER A WIDER AREA.

CONFIDENCE IS QUITE HIGH IN THIS POP FORECAST ALTHOUGH LOCATION
WILL NEED TO BE REFINED. THE NEXT FEW FORECAST CYCLES WILL
OBVIOUSLY BE VERY IMPORTANT IN PINPOINTING THE LOCATION OF HEAVIEST
RAINFALL. SHOULD THE TRACK OF HIGHEST RAINFALL TOTALS RUN A LITTLE
FURTHER SOUTH THAN THIS FORECAST PORTRAYS... THAT COULD POSSIBLY
CREATE A CATASTROPHIC FLOODING SITUATION ACROSS SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA
AND WEST CENTRAL ARKANSAS... WHICH WILL NOT HAVE HAD ENOUGH TIME
TO FULLY RECOVER FROM THE VERY LARGE AMOUNT OF RAINFALL IT HAS
JUST EXPERIENCED.

BEGINNING TUESDAY... IT APPEARS THAT THE UPPER PATTERN WILL FINALLY
FLATTEN OUT... WHICH WILL BEGIN TO FAVOR A DRYER FORECAST GOING INTO
LATE NEXT WEEK.

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$


AVIATION...10





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