Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Tulsa, OK

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FXUS64 KTSA 242319

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
619 PM CDT Mon Oct 24 2016

VFR conditions are expected to prevail through the valid period
at all area TAF sites.


.PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 230 PM CDT Mon Oct 24 2016/


Above average warmth and dry weather will be the rule over the
next 7 to 10 days. The exception will be late Tuesday into
Wednesday when a progressive wave near the West Coast moves
across the Central Plains. Moisture return ahead of the front will
bring a chance for showers and storms after midnight Tuesday night
and into Wednesday morning. There`s also a chance for storms along
the stalling front Wednesday afternoon when instability will be
greater, however since the upper wave axis will be off to the east
by this time, dynamically it is unfavorable. While there will be
moderate instability to work with, a lack of upper support and
weaker kinematic fields suggest only a limited severe hail/wind
threat. The quick movement of this system suggests rainfall
amounts will not put a dent in the intensifying drought situation
over our area.

In the wake of the midweek wave, ridging will prevail over the
central part of the country to close out the week and will
continue into early next week. Highs on Friday and Saturday ahead
of the next cold front are expected to be around 15 degrees above
average for this time of year. The front will knock temps down
closer to average, but that`s about it before another rebound is
expected going into early next week.

This October will likely go down in the top 5 warmest on record
for Eastern OK and Northwest AR.





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