Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Tulsa, OK

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000
FXUS64 KTSA 261140
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
640 AM CDT TUE AUG 26 2014

.AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM.
FEW TO SCATTERED MID/HIGH CLOUDS AND SOUTHEAST TO EASTERLY WINDS
ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD ACROSS EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND
NORTHWEST ARKANSAS. AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM MAY BE POSSIBLE THIS
AFTERNOON ACROSS SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA INTO NORTHWEST ARKANSAS.
HOWEVER...WITH ISOLATED COVERAGE WILL KEEP MENTION OUT OF TAF
SITES FOR NOW. VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PERSIST THROUGH THE PERIOD AT
ALL TAF SITES.


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 309 AM CDT TUE AUG 26 2014/

DISCUSSION...

A BROAD MID LEVEL RIDGE LIES FROM NORTHERN MEXICO EAST ACROSS THE
SOUTH CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST STATES...SANDWICHED BETWEEN A PAIR OF
HURRICANES...ONE IN THE PACIFIC AND ONE IN THE ATLANTIC. AN UPPER
LOW IS ALSO EMBEDDED WITHIN THE ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION OVER THE
CENTRAL GULF COAST...AND IS MOVING WESTWARD. AN AXIS OF DEEP LAYER
MOISTURE EXTENDS NORTHEAST FROM THE LOW AND WILL AT LEAST BRUSH
SOUTHEAST OK INTO WESTERN AR. ISOLATED AFTERNOON STORMS ARE THUS
POSSIBLE IN THE EAST FOR TODAY AND POSSIBLY AGAIN ON WEDNESDAY.
OTHERWISE...THE MID LEVEL RIDGE WILL HOLD ON STRONG THRU
WEDNESDAY...AND WILL BE BROKEN DOWN ON ITS WEST SIDE BY AN
APPROACHING UPPER TROUGH. THIS TROUGH WILL SLIDE ACROSS THE
CENTRAL PART OF THE COUNTRY LATE THIS WEEK AND INTO THE
WEEKEND...BRING A POTENTIALLY SOGGY START TO THE WEEKEND. RAIN
CHANCES DECREASE AND SLIDE EAST SUNDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE
TRENDING DOWN OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS COOLER AND DRIER AIR
ADVECTS INTO THE REGION FROM THE EAST.

THE UPPER PATTERN NEXT WEEK IS FORECAST TO BECOME FAIRLY
PROGRESSIVE...WITH THE MAIN BELT OF THE WESTERLIES SINKING
FARTHER SOUTH INTO THE COUNTRY. THIS COULD BE THE FIRST INDICATION OF
THINGS TO COME AS WE APPROACH THE FALL SEASON. AS A FAST MOVING
SHORTWAVE TROUGH PASSES BY TO OUR NORTH...AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT
WILL PUSH SOUTH OVER THE PLAINS AND WILL BECOME A FOCUS FOR STORM
ACTIVITY. AT THIS POINT...THE BEST CHANCE FOR STORMS WITH THIS
FRONT WILL BE NEXT TUESDAY.

LACY

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   99  75  98  74 /  10   0  10  10
FSM   98  74  96  72 /  10  10  10  10
MLC   97  73  93  71 /   0   0  10  10
BVO   99  69  98  69 /  10  10  10  10
FYV   97  69  94  66 /  10  10  10  10
BYV   94  70  93  69 /  10  10  10  10
MKO   96  72  97  71 /  10   0  10  10
MIO   97  72  97  72 /  10  10  10  10
F10   97  73  95  71 /  10   0  10  10
HHW   96  73  96  70 /  10   0  10  10

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

AVIATION...20





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