Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Tulsa, OK

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000
FXUS64 KTSA 181136
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
636 AM CDT THU SEP 18 2014

.AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM.
A DECAYING COMPLEX OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT MOST
SITES THE FIRST FEW HOURS OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. VFR CONDITIONS
WILL THEN PREVAIL FOR THE MOST PART THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING...ALTHOUGH A FEW ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL STILL BE
POSSIBLE. SOME FOG IS LIKELY TO DEVELOP OVERNIGHT WHICH WILL
REDUCE VISIBILITIES TO MVFR OR LOWER.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 333 AM CDT THU SEP 18 2014/

DISCUSSION...

THUNDERSTORMS ARE ONGOING THIS MORNING ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF
KANSAS AND INTO SOUTHWEST MISSOURI IN THE VICINITY OF LOW LEVEL
WARM ADVECTION MAXIMUM AND A STATIONARY BOUNDARY. STORMS FINALLY
BEGINNING TO MAKE A SOUTHWARD PUSH INTO FAR NORTHEAST
OKLAHOMA...AND WITHIN THE NEXT HOUR OR SO INTO FAR NORTHWEST
ARKANSAS. THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD PERSIST THROUGH AT LEAST EARLY
MORNING PER HRRR...WHICH HAS HAD A DECENT HANDLE ON THINGS
/WITH MINOR SPATIAL AND TEMPORAL CORRECTIONS/ THIS MORNING.
INSTABILITY WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT SOME HAIL AND WIND THREAT
WITH THE STRONGEST STORMS...ALTHOUGH OVERALL...THE FREQUENCY OF
STRONGER STORMS SHOULD LESSEN FROM EARLIER LEVELS. ALL MORNING
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY SHOULD WANE BY EARLY AFTERNOON...ALTHOUGH
ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE DURING MID TO LATE
AFTERNOON. UNLESS DAYTIME THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE ENDS UP BEING
GREATER THAN CURRENTLY ANTICIPATED...WELL ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES SHOULD OCCUR AGAIN THIS AFTERNOON...ALTHOUGH HIGHS
ARE LIKELY TO BE A FEW DEGREES COOLER THAN YESTERDAY GIVEN THE
LESS FAVORABLE WIND DIRECTION AND INCREASED CLOUD COVER.

DRY CONDITIONS CONTINUE TO LOOK LIKELY FROM TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY
NIGHT...BEFORE THE MUCH ANTICIPATED ARRIVAL OF ODILE/S REMNANTS
AND A STRONGER COLD FRONT LEAD TO INCREASING THUNDERSTORM
POTENTIAL WITH AT LEAST SOME LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN THREAT. AS WITH
THE LAST COUPLE OF NIGHTS...STILL THINK THAT THE HEAVIEST AND MOST
WIDESPREAD FLOOD POTENTIAL WILL REMAIN OUTSIDE EASTERN OKLAHOMA
AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS...ALTHOUGH IT SHOULD BE CLOSE ENOUGH TO THE
FORECAST AREA TO BEAR WATCHING. ECMWF CONTINUES TO BE THE SLOWEST
OF THE MODELS...LEAVING MUCH OF SATURDAY DRY AND LINGERING PRECIP
INTO MONDAY. HAVE DECREASED POPS A BIT SATURDAY MORNING...BUT WILL
CONTINUE WITH RELATIVELY HIGH VALUES FROM SATURDAY AFTERNOON INTO
SATURDAY NIGHT. A GRADUAL DRYING TREND IS FEATURED THEREAFTER.
STORM TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL BE HIGHEST ALONG AND NORTH OF
INTERSTATE 44...WITH ISOLATED 2 TO 3 INCH AMOUNTS.

LARGELY BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL FOLLOW THE FRONT FOR EARLY
NEXT WEEK. MODERATE UNCERTAINTY ENTERS THE FORECAST TOWARD THE
MIDDLE OF THE WEEK WITH MID RANGE MODELS DIVERGING IN THE EXPECTED
UPPER AIR PATTERN. WILL KEEP THE INHERITED LOW CHANCE POPS WITH
MINOR TWEAKS IN A NUDGE TO THE ECMWF.

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.

&&

$$

AVIATION...05




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