000
FXUS64 KTSA 132109
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
409 PM CDT SUN APR 13 2014

.DISCUSSION...
SQUALL LINE DEVELOPING ALONG THE COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE TO BUILD SOUTH AND SWEEP ACROSS THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA
LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING AS SHOWN BY THE LATEST RUNS
OF THE HRRR AND LOCAL IN-HOUSE MODELS. THE MAIN SEVERE WEATHER
THREAT WILL LIKELY BE TRANSITIONING FROM HAIL TO DAMAGING WINDS
OVER TIME...WITH TORNADO PROBABILITIES BEING QUITE LOW DUE TO THE
LINEAR NATURE OF THE STORMS. INSTABILITY DECREASES WITH EASTWARD
EXTENT DIE TO PERSISTENT CLOUDS/SHOWERS IN SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND
WESTERN ARKANSAS SO THERE IS ALSO SOME QUESTION AS TO WHETHER
STORMS WILL MAINTAIN THEIR INTENSITY INTO THIS EVENING.

MUCH COLDER AIR WILL OVERSPREAD THE AREA BEHIND THE FRONT. SOME
LIGHT RAIN WILL BE POSSIBLE MONDAY AHEAD OF A SECONDARY UPPER TROF
BUT AMOUNTS WILL BE VERY LIGHT. CLEARING SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS
WILL RESULT IN A FREEZE IN ALL AREAS TUESDAY MORNING AND HAVE NOW
PLACED THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA UNDER A FREEZE WARNING. MOST
LOCATIONS WILL BE VERY NEAR THE COLDEST TEMPERATURES EVER RECORDED
FOR SO LATE IN THE SEASON...WHICH AT TUL/MLC/FYV/FSM ARE THE SAME
AS THE RECORD LOWS FOR THE DATE OF APRIL 15TH.

TEMPERATURES WILL WARM BACK CLOSER TO NORMAL FOR THE REST OF THE
WEEK INTO NEXT WEEKEND...WITH SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES
THURSDAY/THURSDAY NIGHT AND AGAIN SATURDAY NIGHT/SUNDAY.

STAYED CLOSE TO GUIDANCE TEMPERATURES THE NEXT COUPLE DAYS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   38  47  28  61 /  50  30   0   0
FSM   46  50  28  61 /  80  30  10   0
MLC   41  48  29  61 /  60  20  10   0
BVO   36  47  25  61 /  40  30   0   0
FYV   39  43  24  57 /  80  30  10   0
BYV   40  43  25  56 /  80  40  10   0
MKO   40  47  27  60 /  60  30  10   0
MIO   37  44  26  59 /  50  40  10   0
F10   39  47  28  61 /  50  20  10   0
HHW   46  52  30  60 /  70  20  10   0

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...FREEZE WARNING FROM 1 AM TUESDAY TO 9 AM TUESDAY FOR OKZ049-
     OKZ053-OKZ054-OKZ055-OKZ056-OKZ057-OKZ058-OKZ059-OKZ060-
     OKZ061-OKZ062-OKZ063-OKZ064-OKZ065-OKZ066-OKZ067-OKZ068-
     OKZ069-OKZ070-OKZ071-OKZ072-OKZ073-OKZ074-OKZ075-OKZ076.

AR...FREEZE WARNING FROM 1 AM TUESDAY TO 9 AM TUESDAY FOR ARZ001-
     ARZ002-ARZ010-ARZ011-ARZ019-ARZ020-ARZ029.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...02
LONG TERM....05

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