475
FXUS64 KTSA 092308
AFDTSA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
608 PM CDT Wed Jul 9 2025

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 118 PM CDT Wed Jul 9 2025

   - Much lower overall shower/storm coverage this afternoon thru
     Friday compared to previous few days.

   - A more active weather regime returns for the weekend on into
     next week with daily thunderstorm chances.

   - Afternoon heat indices will creep up into the 95-105F range
     each of the next few afternoons. The warmest days will be
     Thursday and Friday.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Through tonight)
Issued at 118 PM CDT Wed Jul 9 2025

WV imagery clearly delineates a NE-SW oriented mid lvl trough has
slid southeast across the region, and lies from central AR to far
SE OK and the ArkLaTex. A drier deep layer airmass (PWATs ~1.5") is
now in place over the region on this side of the trough axis,
which has lead to a much quieter day across the region. CAMs
suggest that any afternoon development will be pretty isolated and
mainly in the terrain from NW AR down to far SE OK, with the best
chance in the Ouachitas.

As a side note, surface dewpoints have trended higher as the day
has worn on compared to NBM and lie closer to NBM75th %ile
numbers.

Storms are expected to come off the central High Plains and will
move across Nebraska and possibly northern Kansas overnight as an
MCS. Recent runs from the MPAS and HRRR keep this activity well
to our north so will keep forecast dry for now.

Lacy

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Tomorrow through Wednesday)
Issued at 118 PM CDT Wed Jul 9 2025

From the side note earlier, surface dewpoints during the day have
trended more toward NBM75th %ile numbers today, and will use that
as guidance for tomorrow. Combined with the high temp forecast,
some pockets of near 105F heat indices are in the grids for
portions of the hwy 75 corridor in NE OK and over in the lower Ark
River Valley of west-central AR. A heat headline will not be
issued with this package but will be watched.

Some higher deep layer moisture is expected to creep back north
into SE OK and west-central AR on Thursday, and CAMs/CONShort
shows a bit better signal for isolated afternoon pop-up showers
and storms there. Will insert a slight chance mention vs dry NBM
forecast.

Another mainly dry day is expected Friday ahead of an approaching
front. Rain/storm chances ramp up Friday night and peak over the
weekend as the boundary, or the outflow from the storms, pushes
into our area. Rain/storm chances will persist into next week as
models show yet another front making a run at us Tuesday into
Wednesday. Still no sign in the extended range of the subtropical
ridge building over our area.

Lacy

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 608 PM CDT Wed Jul 9 2025

VFR conditions expected through the period outside of some fog
potential overnight tonight across western Arkansas sites. Fog
should be more patchy tonight than what occurred this morning.
Otherwise, scattered cloud cover and increasing southerly winds
are on tap for tomorrow. Winds could gusts from 15-20 knots across
NE OK tomorrow afternoon.

Bowlan

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   74  95  77  94 /   0  10   0   0
FSM   74  95  76  96 /   0  20   0   0
MLC   72  94  76  94 /   0  20   0   0
BVO   69  94  74  94 /   0  10   0  10
FYV   68  91  73  93 /   0  10   0   0
BYV   68  93  71  94 /   0  10   0  10
MKO   72  93  74  93 /   0  10   0   0
MIO   70  93  73  93 /   0  10   0  10
F10   72  93  73  93 /   0  10   0   0
HHW   72  94  74  94 /   0  20   0   0

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...None.
AR...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...30
LONG TERM....30
AVIATION...04