Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Tulsa, OK

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000
FXUS64 KTSA 122333
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
633 PM CDT SAT APR 12 2014

.AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM.
STIFF SOUTH WINDS THROUGH THE ENTIRE FORECAST PERIOD.
GENERALLY VFR THROUGH THE 00Z-12Z PERIOD. LOW LEVEL
MVFR CLOUD/CIGS AROUND 25 HND FEET AR TAF SITES KXNA KFYV
KFSM GENERALLY IN 12Z-18Z TIME PERIOD. DEVELOPING THUNDER
...LATE IN THE PERIOD...POSSIBLY SEVERE AFTER 20Z.
OK TAF SITES KBVO KTUL KRVS MOST LIKELY TO SEE THUNDER
BEFORE 00Z IN ADVANCE OF APPROACHING COLD FRONT.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 330 PM CDT SAT APR 12 2014/

DISCUSSION...
MOIST LOW LEVEL AIRMASS CONTINUES TO SPREAD OVER THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS THIS AFTERNOON...WITH DEEPENING SFC LOW OVER WESTERN KS.
WINDS WILL REMAIN STRONG AND GUSTY OVERNIGHT WITH VERY MILD TEMPS.
MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO BE TRANSPORTED NORTH BY LOW LEVEL JET
TONIGHT BUT LARGE EML WILL KEEP A STRONG CAP IN PLACE AND THUS THE
OPPORTUNITY FOR ANY ELEVATED CONVECTION APPEARS TOO MINIMAL TO
INCLUDE IN FORECAST FOR TONIGHT. GRADUAL ERODING OF EML SUNDAY
WITH APPROACH OF LEAD SHORTWAVE WILL LIKELY CAUSE SOME ELEVATED
CONVECTION TO BREAK OUT DURING THE DAY SUNDAY...AND SOME OF THIS
COULD EVENTUALLY BECOME SURFACE BASED WITH ATTENDANT THREAT OF
SEVERE WEATHER. THIS SCENARIO FAR FROM A GIVEN HOWEVER...AND MAIN
THREAT OF SEVERE STORMS WILL LIKELY OCCUR WITH THE PASSAGE OF
STRONG COLD FRONT LATE SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

SFC PATTERN WILL FEATURE TRIPLE POINT SFC LOW NORTH OF OKC BY
TIME OF PEAK HEATING WITH DRY LINE EXTENDING SOUTH NEAR I-35 AND
RAPIDLY ADVANCING COLD FRONT PUSHING TOWARD NE OKLAHOMA. THIS
SHOULD BE MAIN FOCUS FOR STORM DEVELOPMENT IN THE AFTERNOON
THROUGH EVENING WITH VERY STEEP LAPSE RATES POSSIBLY SUPPORTING
VERY LARGE HAIL. STORM MODE WILL BECOME COMPLEX RATHER QUICKLY AS
FAST MOVING FRONT SWEEPS THROUGH EASTERN OK AND INTO NW ARKANSAS
IN THE EVENING. IN ANY CASE SHOULD SEE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ALONG AND BEHIND THE FRONT DURING THAT TIME...WHICH
WILL FEATURE THAT HIGHEST CHANCE OF PRECIP OVER LARGEST AREA.

TEMPS WILL TURN SHARPLY COLDER BEHIND THE FRONT WITH UPPER 30S AND
LOWER 40S LIKELY IN NORTHERN AREAS BY MONDAY MORNING...AND TEMPS
STRUGGLING TO DO MUCH BETTER THAN THAT FOR MUCH OF THE DAY. A
SECONDARY UPPER WAVE PASSING THROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT SOME
LIGHT PRECIP MAINLY NORTH OF I-40...WITH FORECAST PARTIAL
THICKNESSES INDICATING SOME POTENTIAL FOR A LIGHT WINTER MIX NEAR
THE KANSAS BORDER FOR A TIME MONDAY. CONTINUE TO DISREGARD THE NAM
AND ITS MORE BULLISH SOLUTION WITH COLDER SFC TEMPS...BUT THIS
WILL NEED TO BE CONSIDERED WITH LATER FORECASTS.

OF BIGGER CONCERN WILL BE A WIDESPREAD FREEZE IN MUCH OF THE AREA
TUESDAY MORNING AS SKIES CLEAR. HARD FREEZE BEGINNING TO LOOK
LIKELY OVER PARTS OF FAR NE OKLAHOMA AND NW ARKANSAS WITH MID 20S
POSSIBLE. FREEZE HEADLINES WILL BE NEEDED FOR MUCH...IF NOT ALL OF
THE FORECAST AREA.

TEMPS MODERATE TUE/WED WITH ANOTHER SYSTEM AND COLD FRONT EXPECTED
TO BRING A CHANCE OF PRECIP THURSDAY. AT THIS TIME THE MOISTURE
RETURN AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM LOOKS MINIMAL AND ONLY LOW
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL BE INCLUDED.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   66  78  39  45 /  10  70  80  40
FSM   63  74  50  52 /  10  40  90  30
MLC   65  76  43  45 /  10  40  80  20
BVO   65  75  37  45 /  10  80  70  50
FYV   61  71  43  43 /  10  60  90  50
BYV   60  72  43  43 /  10  60  80  50
MKO   64  75  42  44 /  10  40  90  30
MIO   65  75  38  42 /  10  70  90  50
F10   65  76  41  45 /  10  50  90  20
HHW   62  75  48  50 /  10  40  50  20

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...12
LONG TERM....12
AVIATION...21





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