Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Tulsa, OK

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000
FXUS64 KTSA 241955
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE Tulsa OK
255 PM CDT TUE MAY 24 2016

.DISCUSSION...
Scattered thunderstorms have developed this afternoon in the
vicinity of a decaying outflow boundary that extends from
northeast Oklahoma into north-central Oklahoma. Thunderstorms
have also developed across northwest Arkansas in response to an
MCV migrating across that area. These storms are forming in a
very unstable and weakly sheared environment. Could see damaging
winds to around 70 mph and large hail with these storms. The tornado
threat is low especially along the outflow boundary. This activity
is expected to diminish around sunset. Additional thunderstorms are
expected to develop later this afternoon and evening across western
Oklahoma and western Kansas. This activity could move into eastern
Oklahoma during the overnight hours and also pose a damaging wind
and hail threat. This activity would persist in the morning hours
Wednesday across far eastern Oklahoma and western Arkansas.

The chances of showers and thunderstorms decrease some on Wednesday with
no real focus for development. Since the airmass will not be changing
much could see some scattered afternoon and evening thunderstorms in
the unstable and weakly capped environment. The chances of thunderstorms
increase Thursday night into Friday as a more significant upper level
shortwave moves out of the southwest and across the plains. This could
occur in the two rounds of thunderstorms, one Thursday night and one
on Friday afternoon. Severe weather will be possible with each round
with large hail and damaging winds the main concern. However, the
threat for tornadoes will also be a concern especially on Friday.

Storm chances diminish over the Holiday weekend. However, they do increase
into the chance range on Monday as a shortwave in the southwesterly flow
aloft moves across the southern plains.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   70  87  72  85 /  40  20  20  30
FSM   69  85  71  84 /  40  20  20  30
MLC   71  83  73  82 /  50  20  20  30
BVO   68  86  70  84 /  60  20  20  30
FYV   67  81  70  81 /  40  20  20  30
BYV   67  83  69  83 /  40  20  20  30
MKO   69  84  70  83 /  50  20  20  30
MIO   67  84  71  84 /  40  20  20  30
F10   69  84  71  83 /  50  20  20  30
HHW   70  85  72  82 /  50  20  20  30

&&

.TSA Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$


LONG TERM....10



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