Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Tulsa, OK

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175
FXUS64 KTSA 212323
AFDTSA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
623 PM CDT Fri Apr 21 2017

.AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM/KROG.
Areas of showers and thunderstorms should continue for the
northeast OK and northwest AR TAF sites through about 03-04z.
Farther south...isolated supercells will likely remain just
south of KMLC. The overall severe weather threat will diminish
toward 06z. Expect mostly IFR cigs along with areas of fog
through the overnight hours...with MVFR/IFR conditions persisting
through much of Saturday.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 334 PM CDT Fri Apr 21 2017/

DISCUSSION...
Repeated widespread convection through the day has suppressed the
most unstable warm sector to extreme southeast Oklahoma and points
southward. Further north, elevated instability has been
maintained with steep mid level lapse rates associated with
approached trough. Forcing will continue to strengthen in advance
of the aforementioned wave with convection increasing currently
across NE OK with this activity spreading eastward through the
evening. While these storms are elevated, sufficient effective
shear will support scattered strong to severe storms. Further
south nearer the sfc boundary the potential for sfc based storms
increases and any storms which can develop within this zone will
pose a more significant severe weather risk. The passing of the
wave this evening will mark the end to the stronger storm
potential while lingering light precip may continue into Saturday
especially north of Interstate 40.
The widespread heaviest rains have also likely ended however the
last round of precip will contain smaller cores of heavy rain.
Given the rainfall that has already fall we will let the Flood
Watch remain in place until it is clearer that the heavy rain
potential has completely ended.

Noticeably cooler temps Saturday with breezy north winds. Warm up
begins Sunday with the next frontal passage late Tuesday into
Wednesday. Moisture return in advance of this front is
questionable however storm chances associated with this frontal
passage may mark the next chance of severe weather. A more
substantial warm sector and higher severe weather potential looks
likely by late next week as an unsettled weather pattern develops
across the Southern Plains.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   46  56  42  69 /  60  20  10   0
FSM   54  59  43  72 /  70  20  10   0
MLC   52  61  44  70 /  70  10   0   0
BVO   46  57  38  70 /  50  20  10   0
FYV   47  53  39  67 /  80  30  10   0
BYV   48  53  39  66 /  80  30  10   0
MKO   48  58  41  69 /  60  20  10   0
MIO   45  52  41  68 /  70  30  10   0
F10   48  59  43  69 /  60  10  10   0
HHW   54  63  44  70 /  80  10   0   0

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...Flood Watch until midnight CDT tonight for OKZ054>072.

AR...Flood Watch until midnight CDT tonight for ARZ001-002-010-011.

&&

$$

AVIATION...18



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