Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Tulsa, OK

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000
FXUS64 KTSA 291528
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE Tulsa OK
1028 AM CDT FRI APR 29 2016

...UPDATE...

.DISCUSSION...
At mid morning today...a negatively tilted upper level low was
positioned over Northeast New Mexico with a surface low over West
Texas/Texas Panhandle. From the surface low...a nearly stationary
warm front extended eastward along/near the Red River with a cold
front/dryline trailing to the southwest. North of the warm
front...widespread showers and thunderstorms had lifted northeast
through Eastern Oklahoma and Northwest Arkansas this morning. By
mid morning...most of this activity had moved into Central
Arkansas. As a result...the severe watch over the southern half of
the CWA was cancelled early. Behind this main area of
precip...scattered rain showers and isolated thunder were common
over parts of the CWA...with additional thunderstorms near the
upper low in Western Oklahoma and the Oklahoma/Texas Panhandles.

This afternoon...moisture will continue to stream northward with
dewpoints in the 60s common for most of the CWA. However...the
true warm front with 70 degree dewpoints looks to remain in the
vicinity of the Red River...maybe a county or two north of the
River. The surface low is expected to continue to make its way
east northeast into Southwest Oklahoma with the upper low into the
Oklahoma/Texas Panhandles by late this afternoon. This will allow
for additional thunderstorm chances to spread back over the CWA.
With the increasing moisture and 0-6km wind shear of 40-60kt
ahead of the front and surface low...instability and a low cap
across the CWA will allow for a second round of severe potentials
through this evening and into the overnight hours. Depending on
exactly where the true warm front sets up...will determine the
higher potential for tornadic development. Right now it continues
to look like far Southeast Oklahoma...mainly south of a McAlester
to Poteau line this afternoon/evening for tornado potential as
well as large hail and damaging wind potential. To the north of
the boundary...large hail continues to be the main hazard through
this afternoon. Also through tonight...additional rainfall ontop
of the widespread 1-3 inches that has already fallen over parts of
Southeast Oklahoma...a heavy rainfall/flash flood potential will
remain possible for Southeast Oklahoma into parts of Western
Arkansas. Additional rainfall of around a half inch to over one
inch looks possible.

This evening into the overnight hours...short term guidance
indicates the surface low positioning over North Central
Oklahoma/South Central Kansas tonight with the cold front pushing
into Eastern Oklahoma by early Saturday morning. Additional
thunderstorm chances will continue through the overnight hours
ahead of the front. There still remains some uncertainty on just
how far northward the warm front travels with the lifting surface
low tonight. However...it looks like a triple point could develop
over parts of Northeast Oklahoma...northwest of Interstate 44 that
could allow for a continued severe weather potential into the
overnight hours tonight. Again...large hail and a damaging wind
threat looks to be the main hazards late tonight.

Morning update today will be to adjust hourly pops/wx grids this
afternoon based on the mentioned above. Also...have added minor
tweaks to temp/dewpoint/wind grids based on current trends and
observations. With continued mostly cloudy conditions and
increasing dewpoints temps this afternoon look to still warm into
the 60s/low 70s over the region.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   70  56  74  49 /  60  80  10  10
FSM   73  63  79  54 /  70  90  30  10
MLC   73  60  75  52 /  70  80  20  10
BVO   68  55  73  47 /  80  90  10  10
FYV   67  61  74  49 /  70  80  30  10
BYV   65  61  76  52 /  90  80  40  10
MKO   71  59  74  50 /  60  80  20  10
MIO   67  60  74  49 /  70  90  10  10
F10   71  57  74  51 /  70  70  10  10
HHW   75  65  78  55 /  80  90  30  10

&&

.TSA Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
OK...Flash Flood Watch through Saturday morning for OKZ049-053-
     073>076.

AR...Flash Flood Watch through Saturday morning for ARZ029.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...20
LONG TERM....30


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