Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Tulsa, OK

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000
FXUS64 KTSA 182008
AFDTSA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
308 PM CDT Wed Oct 18 2017

.DISCUSSION...
Afternoon water vapor imagery show upstream shortwave trough
approaching far west TX. This system will move out into the
southern High Plains by Thursday night while a lee trough
strengthens across eastern Colorado. Increasing moisture and lift
associated with this feature will bring a chance of showers and
storms during the day Friday south and west of the region and
across eastern Oklahoma by Friday night. Any storms which develop
Friday evening should remain below severe limits, with the
strongest storms farther southwest.

Temperatures on Thursday will be warmest of the week with most
locations in the low 80s, several degrees above seasonal normals.
Winds will increase each day, and particularly Friday and
Saturday ahead of the surface cold front. Max wind gusts of 20-30
mph are likely especially along and north of I-44 on Friday.
Increasing moisture/clouds should keep max temps a few degrees
cooler on Friday, though locations which get more breaks in cloud
cover will have similar values to Thursday.

Showers and a few storms are possible early in the day on
Saturday, as a weak wave comes out before the main upper trough
on Saturday night. Any pre-frontal convection on Saturday should
remain on the weaker side. The front should be located just
northwest of the area by Saturday evening, and the associated
convection should sweep through from west to east by Sunday
morning. Instability and shear will support strong to marginally
severe storms, which will organize into a squall line. The main
threat will likely be from damaging wind gusts. Additionally, at
least 1 to 2 inches of rain is likely, with locally higher
amounts. This could pose a risk for local runoff problems Saturday
night.

Cool and clear conditions will develop Sunday into Monday behind
the storm system, with seasonal fall weather going into next week.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   53  81  57  77 /   0   0   0  10
FSM   50  82  53  78 /   0   0   0  10
MLC   52  82  58  78 /   0   0   0  10
BVO   47  82  53  76 /   0   0   0  10
FYV   47  79  50  75 /   0   0   0  10
BYV   52  81  53  78 /   0   0   0  10
MKO   49  80  56  77 /   0   0   0  10
MIO   52  80  54  77 /   0   0   0  10
F10   50  80  56  78 /   0   0   0  10
HHW   50  81  56  79 /   0   0   0  10

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...None.
AR...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...23
LONG TERM....06

CORFIDI


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