Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Tulsa, OK

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FXUS64 KTSA 160502
AFDTSA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
1202 AM CDT Wed Aug 16 2017

.AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM/KROG.
Last round of storms is across western Arkansas, with just light rain
showers across east central Oklahoma. Outflow boundary from this
evening`s storms extends from south of Fort Smith into southeast
Oklahoma. Expect the NE Oklahoma terminals to stay mainly dry
overnight, given stabilized boundary layer. More showers are
bubbling near the Red River in south central OK, which may affect
KMLC by early morning. Winds should increase in advance of
approaching front, with a chance for afternoon storms across at
least NE Oklahoma.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 928 PM CDT Tue Aug 15 2017/

DISCUSSION...
Organized thunderstorm complex continues to spread across far
eastern/northeastern Oklahoma toward northwest Arkansas this evening.
Although a weakening trend has been noted, activity likely to persist
as it moves through much of northwestern Arkansas next few hours.
Air mass remains moderately unstable ahead of the activity but
increasing CIN and outflow somewhat ahead of the convection will keep
any severe threat isolated. Adjusted grids to account for current
convective trends next few hours. Expect any redevelopment overnight
to be along/north of outflow boundary, which extends from central
Oklahoma through Pittsburg, Latimer, and Le Flore Counties, and will
eventually push into west central Arkansas.

Strong convection and very moist air mass over the area resulted in
some locally heavy rainfall across portions of northeastern Oklahoma
this evening. Additional development into some of those areas will
likely result in flooding, although this is expected to be isolated
should it occur.

Updated forecast products already issued.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   73  89  72  90 /  50  60  60  10
FSM   77  92  77  90 /  30  30  50  50
MLC   76  88  75  90 /  30  30  50  40
BVO   73  91  71  88 /  50  60  60  10
FYV   72  86  73  86 /  40  40  50  40
BYV   73  88  72  87 /  40  40  50  40
MKO   77  88  74  89 /  40  50  60  30
MIO   74  90  70  87 /  50  60  60  10
F10   74  88  73  89 /  40  50  60  20
HHW   76  91  76  91 /  20  20  40  40

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...None.
AR...None.
&&

$$

AVIATION...06

CORFIDI


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