Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Tulsa, OK

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FXUS64 KTSA 092220
AFDTSA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
420 PM CST Fri Dec 9 2016

.DISCUSSION...

A bit of a dreary today as a shallow saturated layer near 750 mb
allowed a decent cloud deck to develop across much of the plains
region. Thus, trended down on afternoon highs with much of the area
staying in the 30s. Clouds overnight and increasing winds
tomorrow morning will keep temperatures several degrees warmer
than the last few mornings. Surface high pressure continues to
remain over the central US and will move eastward Saturday.
Pressure gradient over the Plains will tighten as lee troughing
develops and begins to deepen across the High Plains. Winds will
increase out of the south tomorrow in response to increasing PG
over the region ahead of an incoming front. Low-level moisture
will slowly be on the increase but the area has been dry enough
that fire concerns remain elevated due to moderate fire spread
potential.

By Sunday morning, a much warmer airmass will be in place with high
temperatures climbing into the 50s and 60s. A significant
increase in low-level moisture will support areas of drizzle and
a few light rain showers through the day, primarily across
eastern Oklahoma and western Arkansas.

Focus then shifts towards the next batch of cold air that will
dive southward out of Canada by the middle of next week. Cross-
polar flow and a dangerously cold airmass originating from
Siberia will work their way into northern Canada and then into
the northern states by early next week. The Arctic airmass will
then plunge southward into the region Tuesday night and
Wednesday. Surface front does look to stall across the southern
portion of the CWA, which would have a significant impact on
temperatures from north to south. Given the shallow nature of the
airmass, could see a bit of freezing drizzle in addition to a bit
of light snow on Wednesday behind the front.Cold temperatures
don`t look to hang around too long as return flow by Friday
should help to warm us back up towards near normal temperatures.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   26  46  43  60 /   0   0  10  20
FSM   24  48  38  58 /   0   0  20  40
MLC   26  48  45  64 /   0   0  30  20
BVO   22  44  41  57 /   0   0  10  20
FYV   23  42  39  53 /   0   0  10  40
BYV   22  41  36  52 /   0   0  10  40
MKO   24  47  40  59 /   0   0  20  30
MIO   21  44  39  53 /   0   0  10  30
F10   25  47  43  62 /   0   0  20  20
HHW   26  49  42  65 /   0   0  30  40

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...None.
AR...None.
&&

$$

LONG TERM....11


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