Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Tulsa, OK

Home | Current Version | Previous Version | Graphics & Text | Print | Product List | Glossary Off
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50

FXUS64 KTSA 131658

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
1058 AM CST Fri Jan 13 2017

Complicated short term forecast as far as types and amounts are
concerned. Freezing line positioned from about Miami to Okemah as
based on much of incoming data, it will not move a great deal
through today. Persistent convective precip has been noted through
the morning within a mid level baroclinic zone situated close to
the i-44 corridor and thus far this has been where vast majority
of precip has been concentrated. Some of the heavier showers have
produced quick burst of a quarter inch of icing or so within the
warning area. A new enhanced area of precip blossoming west of OK
and would expect this to ride the boundary to the northeast and
bring an uptick in precip across NE OK in the next few hours.
Given this and the expected sfc temps will extend the Freezing
Rain Advisory for Okfuskee, Creek, Tulsa, Rogers and Ottawacounties
through tonight. Remaining Advisory areas are now at or above
freezing and will allow those counties to drop at noon. Also
based on recent trends added Craig Co to the Ice Storm Warning.
Updated forecast will be out by 1130 am.


.PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 536 AM CST Fri Jan 13 2017/

KBVO will have FZRA as a prevailing condition to start the
forecast period this morning given radar trends and surface
temperatures of around 29 degrees. Will carry tempo groups for
FZRA for KTUL/KRVS before a changeover to rain occurs after
17-18z. The NW AR TAFS should all remain above freezing so only
mentioned rain or showers at the terminals.

PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 402 AM CST Fri Jan 13 2017/

Early morning radar imagery show convective showers breaking out
within the warm advection regime occurring across the region.
13/00z upper air analysis showed the 850mb front between DDC/OUN
and the eastern portion has since lifted farther north per latest
meso-analysis and observed 30-35kt flow from VWP data. Surface
temperatures have warmed a degree or two across far eastern OK and
northwest Arkansas in response. The surface freezing line runs
from near Miami to just north of Tulsa to Okemah. There is some
freezing rain occurring north of that line from Pawnee through
Ottawa Counties.

Forecast is dependent on placement of surface freezing line and
QPF amounts. Majority of cold air advection has ended across our
area...with no fresh arctic air being injected.
Therefore...temperatures today will remain steady within a degree
or two. The exception will be across the far northwest part of the
forecast area where dewpoints are in the teens. Once rain begins
to saturate the column...these locations will wetbulb down a few
degrees...and this is the same area where we currently have an ice
storm warning. Within the freezing rain advisory area...light
amounts of rain or freezing rain are expected today. Temperatures
are also expected to remain in the low 30s...with some icing
concerns to untreated roadways and elevated surfaces. Amount of
dry air present on evening soundings from DFW/OUN will be
problematic for producing heavy amounts of precipitation at least
early on. Later today...with persistent isentropic
ascent...precipitation will have expanded in areal coverage with
best icing potential north and west of Tulsa.

Synoptic scale lift will increase by late Friday evening/Saturday as
western upper low approaches the region. This should provide the
large scale support for more rain and freezing rain...and the
heaviest icing potential is expected during this time period.

By Sunday...temperatures warm above freezing. We will have another
round of showers with isolated thunderstorms through Sunday



TUL   33  32  34  33 /  80  80  80  60
FSM   51  43  49  48 /  50  60  40  30
MLC   44  37  44  41 /  60  70  50  40
BVO   30  29  33  31 /  80  80  80  80
FYV   47  43  46  45 /  50  70  60  40
BYV   41  38  43  41 /  60  70  60  50
MKO   40  35  40  40 /  60  80  60  50
MIO   34  32  34  34 /  80  80  80  80
F10   37  34  37  36 /  60  80  70  50
HHW   58  49  57  54 /  50  60  40  30


OK...Freezing Rain Advisory until noon CST today for OKZ062-063-066-

     Freezing Rain Advisory until noon CST Saturday for OKZ058-060-

     Ice Storm Warning until 6 AM CST Sunday for OKZ054>057-059.

AR...Freezing Rain Advisory until noon CST today for ARZ002.



LONG TERM....99 is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.