Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Tulsa, OK

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000
FXUS64 KTSA 030738
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
238 AM CDT FRI JUL 3 2015

.DISCUSSION...

FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL REMAIN DRAPED ACROSS THE AREA
TODAY...FOCUSING MORE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. MODEL DATA
SUGGESTS VERY UNSTABLE AIR FROM EAST CENTRAL OK OVER INTO
NORTHWEST ARKANSAS BY AFTERNOON. IN ADDITION...NWRLY SHEAR WILL
INCREASE AS UPPER WAVE OVER THE CENTRAL PART OF THE COUNTRY SLIDES
BY JUST TO OUR NORTHEAST. THUS...SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL WILL
INCREASE TODAY. THE BEST STORM CHANCES WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT SOUTH
WITH TIME TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY. RAIN CHANCES RAMP BACK UP IN WARM
ADVECTION REGIME SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY BEFORE SHUTTING OFF
BRIEFLY SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. THE NEXT BOUNDARY MOVES IN
MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY...WITH ANOTHER GOOD SHOT OF PRECIP.

THE MODELS CONTINUE TO DELAY ONSET OF UPPER RIDGE OVER OUR AREA
NEXT WEEK. NOW LOOKS LIKE FRIDAY ON INTO NEXT WEEKEND.

LACY

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   88  69  89  73 /  50  20  10  50
FSM   86  70  88  72 /  70  40  30  40
MLC   85  70  87  73 /  60  40  30  40
BVO   87  66  88  70 /  40  20  10  50
FYV   82  65  84  68 /  60  20  20  20
BYV   80  64  83  67 /  60  20  20  20
MKO   85  69  87  72 /  60  30  20  40
MIO   84  66  88  70 /  50  20  10  20
F10   85  69  87  73 /  60  30  20  40
HHW   84  71  87  73 /  70  60  50  40

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

LONG TERM....30


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