Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Tulsa, OK

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000
FXUS64 KTSA 251721
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
1221 PM CDT SAT JUL 25 2015

.DISCUSSION...

THE 18Z TAF DISCUSSION IS INCLUDED BELOW.

&&

.AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM/KROG.
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL BENEATH HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT. ISOLATED
AFTERNOON TSRA OVER IN WRN AR WILL LIKELY BE EAST OF THE TERMINALS
SO NO MENTION WAS INCLUDED IN THE TAFS.

LACY

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1017 AM CDT SAT JUL 25 2015/

DISCUSSION...

MORNING UPPER AIR DATA SUGGESTS THAT THE MID LEVEL RIDGE HAS
WEAKENED A LITTLE OVER OKLAHOMA AND ARKANSAS COMPARED TO
YESTERDAY. BOTH THE NAM AND HRRR SUGGEST AT LEAST ISOLATED STORM
DEVELOPMENT OVER ARKANSAS THIS AFTERNOON...MAINLY TO THE EAST OF
THE TULSA WFO FORECAST AREA WHERE 500MB ARE COOLER AND HEIGHTS ARE
LOWER. THERE IS ENOUGH OF A CONSISTENT SIGNAL IN THE AVAILABLE
DATA TO INSERT A SLIGHT CHANCE OF AFTERNOON STORMS EAST OF THE
I-49 CORRIDOR IN NORTHWEST ARKANSAS. NO OTHER CHANGES WERE NEEDED.
HEAT HEADLINES REMAIN INTACT.

LACY

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   99  77  99  77 /   0   0  10   0
FSM   99  77  99  77 /  10   0   0   0
MLC   97  73  97  73 /   0   0   0   0
BVO   97  73  97  73 /   0   0  10   0
FYV   94  71  94  71 /  10   0   0   0
BYV   94  72  94  72 /  20   0  10  10
MKO   95  74  95  74 /   0   0   0   0
MIO   96  74  96  74 /  10   0  10   0
F10   96  74  96  74 /   0   0   0   0
HHW   97  74  97  74 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR OKZ049-053-063-068-
     069-073-075.

     EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING UNTIL 8 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR
     OKZ054>062-064>067-070>072-074-076.

AR...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR ARZ001-002-010-011.

     EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING UNTIL 8 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR ARZ019-
     020-029.

&&

$$

AVIATION...30


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