Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Tulsa, OK

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000
FXUS64 KTSA 220238
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
938 PM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014

.DISCUSSION...
FORECAST ON TRACK...MINOR CHANGES TO HOURLY GRIDS.
GW

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 620 PM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014/

AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM.
NW AR FORECAST POINT SOUNDINGS NOT AS ROBUST FOR THE POTENTIAL FOR
DENSE FOG DEVELOPMENT TONIGHT COMPARED TO LAST NIGHT. COULD STILL
SEE PATCHY FOG...PRIMARILY IN THE FYV/XNA AREAS WITH VISIBILITIES
BRIEFLY FALLING TO IFR CONDITIONS. LOW LEVEL WINDS/MIXING SHOULD
REMAIN HIGH ENOUGH TO KEEP FOG FROM BECOMING DENSE.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 343 PM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014/

DISCUSSION...
AREAS OF FOG ARE LIKELY TONIGHT PRIMARILY ACROSS WESTERN AR WITH
ATTENTION TURNING TO THE NEXT WAVE THE PASS THE AREA WEDNESDAY
NIGHT. SCATTERED SHOWERS / ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL ACCOMPANY
THE WAVE AS IT PASSES WITH PRECIP ENDING FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS
THE AREA BY EARLY THURSDAY AFTERNOON. ANY COOL DOWN WILL BE
PRIMARILY DUE TO AN INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER AS NO MEANINGFUL
AIRMASS CHANGE WILL FOLLOW THE WAVE PASSAGE.

MUCH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS WILL QUICKLY SPREAD ACROSS THE PLAINS AS
STRONG UPPER RIDGING AMPLIFIES THROUGH THE CENTRAL STATES. THE
WARM TEMPS WILL PREVAIL INTO MONDAY AHEAD OF THE NEXT WAVE AND
ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT...WHICH ARE CURRENTLY TIMED TO PASS THROUGH
THE REGION LATE MONDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. ECMWF/GFS HAVE COME
INTO MUCH BETTER AGREEMENT TODAY THUS PRECIP CHANCES HAVE TRENDED
UPWARD W/ THIS FRONTAL PASSAGE.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   58  77  57  74 /  10  10  40  40
FSM   54  77  52  73 /   0   0  10  20
MLC   56  76  54  74 /  10   0  30  20
BVO   54  78  55  75 /  10  10  40  40
FYV   49  72  49  71 /   0   0  20  20
BYV   49  69  48  72 /   0   0  10  20
MKO   56  76  54  73 /   0   0  30  30
MIO   54  76  54  74 /   0   0  30  40
F10   57  76  55  74 /   0  10  30  30
HHW   56  77  52  75 /   0   0  20  10

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...21
LONG TERM....21





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