Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Tulsa, OK

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000
FXUS64 KTSA 020805
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
305 AM CDT THU JUL 2 2015

.DISCUSSION...
ONGOING THUNDERSTORM CLUSTER CURRENTLY OVER SOUTHWEST MISSOURI
WILL CLIP FAR NORTHWEST ARKANSAS THIS MORNING AS ADVERTISED.
FURTHER WEST...WARMER AIR ALOFT WILL LIKELY SUPPRESS STRONGER
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT THIS MORNING ACROSS EASTERN OKLAHOMA.

WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY FORECAST TO MOVE INTO NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA/
NORTHWEST ARKANSAS THIS AFTERNOON. STRONG DIABATIC HEATING WILL
ALLOW SCATTERED STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP NEAR
BOUNDARY WITH THE THREAT FOR DAMAGING DOWNBURST WINDS AND LOCALLY
HEAVY RAINFALL. THUNDERSTORM THREAT WILL LIKELY CONTINUE AND/OR
REDEVELOP TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY AS INITIALLY UPPER LEVEL WAVE MOVES
ACROSS THE AREA.

SECONDARY UPPER DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE OUT OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS
FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY WITH THE CONTINUED THREAT FOR THUNDERSTORMS/
HEAVY RAINFALL ALONG/SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 40. WEAK NORTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT WILL PERSIST ON SUNDAY WITH...YOU GUESSED IT...LINGERING
PRECIP CHANCES.

ALTHOUGH THE EXACT LOCATION OF HEAVIER RAINFALL SWATHS ARE STILL
UNCERTAIN...LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING WILL CERTAINLY BE A THREAT
THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES RUNNING AROUND
2 INCHES. THE FLOODING THREAT WILL LIKELY BE ENHANCED IN ANY
LOCATIONS WHERE THUNDERSTORMS TRAIN OVER THE SAME AREAS.

WEAK UPPER RIDGE WILL BUILD OVER THE REGION ON MONDAY WITH A
BRIEF BREAK IN THE PRECIPITATION CHANCES. THIS COULD BE SHORT
LIVED HOWEVER AS YET ANOTHER UPPER SHORT WAVE/FRONTAL BOUNDARY
APPROACHES MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   93  72  87  71 /  50  60  60  50
FSM   92  75  84  70 /  50  70  70  60
MLC   90  72  84  69 /  50  70  60  60
BVO   91  68  86  68 /  40  50  50  40
FYV   86  68  83  66 /  50  60  60  50
BYV   87  67  83  66 /  60  60  60  50
MKO   91  72  85  69 /  50  70  70  50
MIO   89  68  86  68 /  40  40  60  40
F10   90  72  85  69 /  50  70  70  60
HHW   91  73  85  70 /  10  40  60  60

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...06
LONG TERM....12


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