Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Tulsa, OK

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000
FXUS64 KTSA 240847
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
247 AM CST WED DEC 24 2014

.DISCUSSION...

STILL LOOKING AT AN ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS WELL INTO NEXT WEEK. IN THE SHORT TERM...DRIZZLE AND LIGHT
RAIN HAVE DEVELOPED ACROSS AND/OR MOVED INTO PARTS OF EASTERN
OKLAHOMA AND FAR NORTHWEST ARKANSAS IN THE PAST FEW
HOURS...ASSOCIATED WITH THE AMPLIFIED UPPER TROUGH PUSHING THROUGH
THE CENTRAL UNITED STATES. A FEW SNOWFLAKES ARE LIKELY MIXED IN
WITH THE LIGHT RAIN IN PARTS OF OSAGE AND PAWNEE COUNTIES...AS THE
PONCA CITY OB JUST TO THE WEST REPORTED UNKNOWN PRECIP AT BETWEEN
MIDNIGHT AND 1 AM. SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS OBS SITES NEAR WICHITA HAVE
BEEN MORE CONSISTENTLY REPORTING SNOW SINCE MIDNIGHT AS WELL.
EVENTUALLY...MORE LIGHT SNOW SHOULD MIX IN WITH THE LIGHT RAIN
ACROSS MAINLY NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND FAR NORTHWEST ARKANSAS AS THE
COLDER AIR DEEPENS. SNOW ACCUMULATIONS CONTINUE TO LOOK HIGHEST
ACROSS PARTS OF FAR NORTHWEST ARKANSAS...WHERE UP TO A HALF INCH
WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE. LITTLE MORE THAN TRACE AMOUNTS CAN BE
EXPECTED ELSEWHERE. THE RAIN AND SNOW SHOULD BE ON ITS WAY OUT BY
MID AFTERNOON.

CHRISTMAS DAY CONTINUES TO FEATURE MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES...ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPERATURES...AND GUSTY SOUTH WINDS...LEADING TO
HEIGHTENED FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS. STILL THINK THAT RED FLAG
CONDITIONS WILL NOT BE MET...WITH HIGHS LIKELY TO BE JUST UNDER
AND MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITIES JUST ABOVE THE NECESSARY
THRESHOLDS. AFTERNOON RELATIVE HUMIDITIES BETWEEN 30 AND 35
PERCENT...COUPLED WITH DRY FUELS LIKELY TO BE UNAFFECTED BY THE
VERY LIGHT PRECIPITATION LIKELY TO BE SEEN TODAY...WILL STILL BE
SUPPORTIVE OF FIRE STARTS. AT THE VERY LEAST...A FIRE DANGER
STATEMENT WILL NEED TO BE ISSUED ON THIS SHIFT TOMORROW...AND
POSSIBLY EVEN AS EARLY AS LATER TODAY DUE TO THE VERY HIGH SPREAD
INDEX VALUES FORECAST. THE WARM TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE INTO
FRIDAY...AS THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT SHOULD BEGIN TO MOVE
THROUGH THE AREA LATE THAT DAY. INCREASING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND
A RESULTANT INCREASE IN LOW CLOUDS AND POSSIBLY PRECIPITATION WILL
KEEP HIGHS LOWER THAN ON CHRISTMAS DAY HOWEVER.

THE NEXT CHANCE OF WINTRY PRECIPITATION REMAINS ON TRACK FOR EARLY
IN THE WEEKEND. DIFFERENCES IN THE GFS AND ECMWF CONTINUE...WITH
EACH MODEL EXHIBITING ONLY MINOR CHANGES FROM ITS PREVIOUS RUNS.
THE CANADIAN AND THE END OF THE NEWEST NAM ARE MORE CLOSELY
ALIGNED WITH THE WETTER ECMWF SOLUTION...SO THE HIGHER CHANCE POPS
PRESENTED BY THE MODEL SUPERBLEND SEEM REASONABLE. VERTICAL
TEMPERATURE PROFILES CONTINUE TO SUPPORT ALL PRECIPITATION TYPES
ACROSS THE AREA WITH THIS SYSTEM...WITH A WINDOW FOR ALL SNOW NEAR
THE KANSAS BORDER BY LATE SATURDAY. CONFIDENCE IN THE FORECAST
SNOW AMOUNTS IS FAIRLY LOW AT THIS TIME. SOME WINTRY PRECIPITATION
COULD LINGER INTO SUNDAY ACROSS PARTS OF SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND
WESTERN ARKANSAS BEFORE THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH FINALLY PUSHES TO THE
EAST.

COLD IS PRETTY MUCH THE WORD TO DESCRIBE THE EARLY TO MIDDLE PART
OF NEXT WEEK...AS A STRONG SURFACE HIGH EXTENDS INTO OKLAHOMA AND
ARKANSAS BEHIND A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE MONDAY. HIGHS BY WEDNESDAY
MAY STRUGGLE TO REACH FREEZING ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE REGION.
WINTRY PRECIPITATION CHANCES ARE NOT ZERO DURING THIS TIME
FRAME...BUT ARE NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO MENTION IN THE FORECAST FOR
NOW.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   42  29  58  43 /  20   0   0  10
FSM   43  29  57  41 /  30   0   0  10
MLC   43  30  58  46 /  10   0   0  10
BVO   42  25  58  40 /  30   0   0  10
FYV   38  26  53  41 /  50  10   0  10
BYV   38  28  53  40 /  50  10   0  10
MKO   42  28  58  43 /  20   0   0  10
MIO   39  27  55  41 /  50   0   0  10
F10   43  30  58  44 /  20   0   0  10
HHW   45  29  59  43 /  10   0   0  10

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...18
LONG TERM....22





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