Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Tulsa, OK

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000
FXUS64 KTSA 282019
AFDTSA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
319 PM CDT Fri Apr 28 2017

.DISCUSSION...
A significant flood/flash flood event is gradually evolving across
the region...although confidence remains low concerning the axis
of heaviest rainfall as wide model spread persists with the 12z
runs. Severe weather will be an issue as well...especially by late
evening/overnight and again Saturday afternoon.

Warm front that was analyzed across northern TX earlier this
morning has lifted into far southern OK...with dewpoints pooling
around 65-70F along/just north of the boundary. A strong cap noted
on OUN/FWD soundings should prohibit convection for the rest of
the day and well into the evening...with storms likely holding off
until after 9-10 pm as the low-level jet strengthens. Great areal
coverage of storms will be north of the warm front which should be
lifting farther north into southeast OK...with highest rainfall
total generally along and north of I-40. The main severe threat
will come from large hail given the overall elevated nature of the
convection...although any storms that remain near the warm front
and rooted closer to the boundary layer may become supercellular.

Going into Saturday...deep/moist southwesterly upper flow in
advancing of approaching upper level will nearly parallel the
synoptic frontal system. With PW values running near 2 inches
(above the 90th percentile for this time of year)...expect periods
of very heavy rainfall across the region. 12z models continue to
show significant differences with the heaviest rain axis...with
the NAM/GFS farther north while the ECMWF has remained consistent
with its previous run keeping the axis roughly from southeast OK
into northwest AR. Severe weather will be possible as well late
in the day and into the evening...especially across southeast OK
as the triple point scoots east across this area.

We plan on blending both the WPC precip forecast along with the
latest ECMWF...which results in a large swath of 4-6 inch rains
from southeast OK-northwest AR...with local amounts over 8 inches.
Given the wet antecedent conditions (especially in northwest AR)
this will result in significant flooding...main stem river
flooding and potential flash flooding.

Please note...this is an evolving system and the axis of heavy
will likely be fine tuned...so stay aware of the latest updates
over the next 24-36 hours.

The upper low will lift northeast of the area on Sunday...with
some lingering light wraparound showers and breezy/cool
conditions.

Quiet weather expected into early next week...with the next chance
of showers/storms coming Tuesday night into Wednesday as a
shortwave dives southeast into the Plains.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   63  72  49  58 / 100 100  80  50
FSM   68  82  59  68 /  70 100 100  50
MLC   68  79  51  63 /  70  90  80  30
BVO   57  65  48  55 /  90  90  80  50
FYV   64  76  56  60 / 100 100 100  60
BYV   64  78  61  61 / 100 100 100  60
MKO   65  77  52  61 / 100 100  80  50
MIO   61  71  53  57 / 100 100  90  60
F10   65  76  49  60 / 100 100  80  30
HHW   71  80  55  64 /  40  90  90  30

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...Flash Flood Watch from 7 PM CDT this evening through Sunday
     morning for OKZ049-053-057-058-060>076.

AR...Flash Flood Watch from 7 PM CDT this evening through Sunday
     morning for ARZ001-002-010-011-019-020-029.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...20
LONG TERM....18


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