Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Tulsa, OK

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000
FXUS64 KTSA 130527
AFDTSA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
1127 PM CST Tue Dec 12 2017

.AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM/KROG.
VFR conditions will continue through the prevailing period. Calm
to light winds will begin to increase ahead of a cold front that
looks to move in from the NW between 12-15Z for NE OK
terminals. The front will gradually push southeastward with time
with winds veering from southwesterly to northwesterly behind the
front. High pressure will move in behind the front allowing winds
to become light northerly after 00Z.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 910 PM CST Tue Dec 12 2017/

DISCUSSION...
Lowered temperatures a few degrees at some of the locations around
the area that have already cooled off to near the previously forecasted
lows. The nearly calm winds and clear skies have caused temperatures
to fall rather rapidly tonight especially in the colder valley locations.

PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 400 PM CST Tue Dec 12 2017/

DISCUSSION...
Fire weather will become a concern again Wednesday as temperatures
warm back to unseasonably warm levels, and afternoon relative
humidities fall to near 20 percent. Winds look like they will
stay below red flag criteria, so will not issue a fire weather
watch at this time, but conditions will need to be monitored. A
cold front will move across the area Wednesday afternoon and
evening, resulting in cooler temperatures for Thursday and Friday.

An upper level storm system is forecast to lift northeast out of
northern Mexico across the southern Plains over the weekend. The
models have not shown good run to run consistency with this
system, with the latest solutions depicting a faster and wetter
system. Will introduce some slight chance to chance pops Saturday
night into Sunday, with dry conditions and above normal
temperatures to follow for the early part of next week.

Went a bit warmer than guidance for high temperatures Wednesday,
but stayed close to guidance temperatures otherwise for the next
couple days.

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...None.
AR...None.
&&

$$


AVIATION.....11
SHORT TERM...10
LONG TERM....05



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