000
FXUS64 KTSA 050912
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
312 AM CST WED MAR 5 2014

.DISCUSSION...

EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS WILL GET A FAIRLY WARM
START TO THE DAY THANKS TO A HEALTHY DECK OF HIGH CLOUDS ACROSS
MUCH OF THE REGION. THIS...COMBINED WITH A LATER START TO ANY
AFTERNOON/EVENING PRECIP...WILL LEAD TO WARMER AFTERNOON
TEMPERATURES THAN EARLIER ANTICIPATED. ALTHOUGH FORECAST SOUNDINGS
HAVE TRENDED WARMER...THEY STILL GENERALLY SUPPORT THE POTENTIAL
FOR WET SNOW TONIGHT WITH NEGLIGIBLE...IF ANY...ACCUMULATION.

TEMPERATURES TOMORROW...AND ESPECIALLY FRIDAY...WILL BE THE
WARMEST SINCE MARCH BEGAN. THE NEXT STORM SYSTEM WILL BEGIN TO
AFFECT THE AREA SATURDAY...WITH COOLER TEMPERATURES AND INCREASING
RAIN CHANCES THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. MEDIUM RANGE MODELS HAVE
TRENDED DRIER FROM SUNDAY INTO THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK...WITH
A STRONGER PUSH OF THE TRAILING SURFACE HIGH. AS A RESULT...HAVE
REMOVED ALL MENTION OF PRECIP FROM SUNDAY AFTERNOON UNTIL THE
APPROACH OF ANOTHER COLD FRONT WEDNESDAY...WHICH IS JUST BEYOND
THE VALID FORECAST PERIOD. TEMPERATURE WISE...MONDAY AND TUESDAY
WILL BE VERY WARM...APPROACHING 70 DEGREES IN AT LEAST A FEW SPOTS
BOTH DAYS. THIS FORECAST MAY EVEN BE A FEW DEGREES TOO COOL SO
THAT WILL HAVE TO BE WATCHED IN SUBSEQUENT FORECASTS IF FRONTAL
TIMING AND PRECEDING WIND DIRECTION TRENDS CONTINUE TO LOOK AS
FAVORABLE AS THEY DO NOW.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   45  26  47  31 /  10  30   0   0
FSM   48  28  49  29 /  10  20   0   0
MLC   47  28  49  31 /  10  30   0   0
BVO   43  23  46  29 /  20  40   0   0
FYV   47  22  47  27 /  10  20   0   0
BYV   45  22  45  27 /  10  10   0   0
MKO   46  27  48  30 /  10  20   0   0
MIO   44  24  46  28 /  10  10   0   0
F10   45  27  49  32 /  10  30   0   0
HHW   49  31  52  30 /  10  30   0   0

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...30
LONG TERM....22