068
FXUS64 KTSA 071751
AFDTSA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
1251 PM CDT Mon Jul 7 2025

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 1250 PM CDT Mon Jul 7 2025

   - Daily rain and storm chances will continue through the next week
     with higher chances through Tuesday and again next weekend.

   - Organized severe weather is not expected. However, storms
     will be capable of producing localized heavy rainfall and
     gusty winds.

   - Afternoon heat indices will creep up into the 95-105F range toward
     the latter half of next week, with a weak cold front
     possible by next weekend.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Through tonight )
Issued at 1250 PM CDT Mon Jul 7 2025

Very moist southerly flow continues, with PWAT near or just over 2"
for much of the area. MLCAPE of 1000 J/Kg or greater is in place,
but with fairly limited wind shear through much of the atmospheric
profile. A few thunderstorms are developing across southeast OK at
this hour. A weak upper level wave is expected to ignite
additional showers and thunderstorms later this afternoon and
evening, especially for northwest AR. Severe weather is not
expected, though an isolated downburst could locally bring very
strong winds. With the elevated water content in the air, locally
torrential rainfall could occur under any stronger storms, but
should be limited by the low wind shear weakening storm longevity.
Low temperatures will be in the lower 70s overnight.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Tomorrow through Monday)
Issued at 1250 PM CDT Mon Jul 7 2025

The upper level high over the Desert Southwest will shift
slightly to the northwest and strengthen over the next 24 hours.
Meanwhile, the tail end of an upper level trough will clip the
area Tuesday as its parent low passes well to the north. With
modest instability, deep moisture, and slightly improved wind
shear, a few lines of showers and thunderstorms are expected to
develop. Widespread severe weather is not anticipated, but a
couple of storms may produce marginally severe wind. Areas of very
heavy rainfall may occur, but at this time significant flooding
is not expected. Storm activity may continue into Wednesday,
especially for SE Oklahoma and NW Arkansas, before diminishing.
Highs the next two days will be in the upper 80s to low 90s with
lows in the lower 70s.

Shortwave ridging builds in Thursday with a mostly dry day outside
of a few very isolated diurnal showers. Temperatures will warm into
the low to mid 90s, with afternoon heat indices of 95-105F. Friday
will also be quite warm, but ensemble guidance is in good agreement
that showers and storms will increase by late in the day, with
several rounds of showers and storms through the weekend.
Temperatures will drop back into the upper 80s to low 90s, with
ensemble guidance keeping any extreme summer heat away from the area
for the foreseeable future.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1219 PM CDT Mon Jul 7 2025

Scattered showers and thunderstorms will continue to develop
through this afternoon, with at least some development depicted
by high-res models across all sections, thus PROB30 will be
continued for all terminals through 01-02z as storms should
dissipate after sunset. Storm development expected again Tuesday,
primarily after 18z. Outside of direct impacts, VFR conditions
will prevail, though any location that receives significant rain
today may become susceptible to fog development overnight.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   73  92  72  92 /  20  50  30  10
FSM   74  91  74  93 /  20  60  30  30
MLC   73  90  71  91 /  20  40  30  20
BVO   70  91  69  91 /  20  40  30  10
FYV   70  88  69  88 /  30  60  30  30
BYV   69  89  69  88 /  40  60  30  30
MKO   72  89  72  91 /  20  50  30  20
MIO   71  88  70  90 /  20  50  30  20
F10   71  89  71  92 /  10  40  30  20
HHW   73  90  72  92 /  20  40  20  30

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...None.
AR...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...06
LONG TERM....06
AVIATION...14