Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Tulsa, OK

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000
FXUS64 KTSA 212333
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
633 PM CDT THU MAY 21 2015

.AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM/KROG.
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE NIGHT. MVFR CIGS ALONG WITH
AREAS OF SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP AFTER 15Z
MAINLY ACROSS EASTERN OK. PRECIPITATION MAY REACH NORTHWEST AR
AFTER 18-21Z.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 352 PM CDT THU MAY 21 2015/

DISCUSSION...
ANOTHER PROLONGED WET PERIOD WILL ENSUE EARLY FRIDAY AND CONTINUE
THROUGH THE MEMORIAL DAY WEEKEND. DEEP MOISTURE WILL BE
TRANSPORTED BACK NORTH...WITH THE ENTIRE AREA FIRMLY ENTRENCHED IN
THIS AIRMASS BY SATURDAY. SEVERAL DISTURBANCES WILL ALSO TRAVERSE
THE AREA WITHIN DEEPENING MERIDIONAL FLOW...AND INTERACT WITH
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES BETWEEN 1.5 AND 2 INCHES.
ADDITIONALLY...A ZONE OF UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE WILL SET UP ACROSS
THE PLAINS OVER THE WEEKEND WHICH WILL ONLY INCREASE TRAINING CELL
POTENTIAL. ANTECEDENT CONDITIONS WILL QUICKLY BECOME AGGRAVATED
ONCE HEAVIER RAINFALL OVERSPREADS THE AREA...ESPECIALLY ACROSS
SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA WHERE MOST RAIN HAS FALLEN THIS MONTH. HIGHEST
QPF SIGNALS FOR THE EARLY PART OF THE WEEKEND LOOK TO BE ACROSS NE
OK. AS THE WEEKEND THE PROGRESSES AND DEEPER FLOW BECOMES
ESTABLISHED...THE HEAVIER RAIN AXIS SHOULD ORIENT MORE SOUTH TO
NORTH...TRANSLATING EAST THROUGH SUNDAY INTO NW AR. THAT
SAID...HAVE ADDED THE NW AR COUNTIES TO THE FLOOD WATCH...WHICH
FOR THOSE ZONES WILL BE EFFECTIVE 18Z SUNDAY...AND WILL EXPIRE
WITH THE PREVIOUSLY ISSUED WATCH MONDAY MORNING. BY EARLY NEXT
WEEK...THE UPPER FLOW PATTERN FLATTENS OUT SOME...HOWEVER RAIN
CHANCES WILL BE MAINTAINED SINCE LITTLE CHANGE IN THE LOWER LEVELS OF
THE ATMOSPHERE IS EXPECTED. TEMPERATURE WISE...STAYED BELOW GUIDANCE
TOMORROW WITH AN EASTERLY SURFACE WIND COMPONENT THAT WILL
PREVAIL MUCH OF THE DAY. OTHERWISE...STAYED CLOSE TO GUIDANCE FOR
THE REMAINING PERIODS.

***WITH ANOTHER SIGNIFICANT RAIN EVENT EXPECTED OVER THE COMING
 DAYS...AND ONE THAT COINCIDES DIRECTLY WITH A HOLIDAY
 WEEKEND...IT IS IMPERATIVE FOR THOSE WHO ARE OUTDOORS TO BE
 FAMILIAR WITH THEIR SURROUNDINGS...AND HAVE A PLAN IN PLACE
 SHOULD EVACUATIONS BECOME NECESSARY. MUCH OF THE
 AREA...ESPECIALLY LOCATIONS ACROSS SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND FAR
 WEST CENTRAL ARKANSAS HAVE SEEN LITTLE DAY TO DAY RECOVERY FROM
 THE FREQUENT RAINFALL THAT HAS OCCURRED THIS MONTH. THE
 ADDITIONAL AMOUNTS FORECASTED...ALONG WITH LOCALLY HIGHER
 AMOUNTS THAT OFTEN ACCOMPANY THESE EVENTS WILL QUICKLY ESCALATE
 MAINSTEM RIVER AND FLASH FLOODING...ESPECIALLY IN THOSE
 AFOREMENTIONED LOCATIONS THAT HAVE BEEN HIT THE HARDEST.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   51  60  55  73 /  20  80  50  70
FSM   53  62  56  76 /  10  70  40  50
MLC   54  63  58  76 /  30  80  40  50
BVO   48  60  53  72 /  10  80  50  70
FYV   46  61  54  72 /  10  70  50  50
BYV   46  63  52  71 /  10  50  40  50
MKO   52  60  56  75 /  10  80  50  60
MIO   47  63  53  73 /  10  70  40  60
F10   53  61  57  75 /  20  80  50  60
HHW   57  67  59  78 /  30  60  30  50

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM 7 AM FRIDAY TO 7 AM MONDAY FOR OKZ049-
     OKZ053-OKZ054-OKZ055-OKZ056-OKZ057-OKZ058-OKZ059-OKZ060-
     OKZ061-OKZ062-OKZ063-OKZ064-OKZ065-OKZ066-OKZ067-OKZ068-
     OKZ069-OKZ070-OKZ071-OKZ072-OKZ073-OKZ074-OKZ075-OKZ076.

AR...FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM 1 PM SUNDAY TO 7 AM MONDAY FOR ARZ001-
     ARZ002-ARZ010-ARZ011-ARZ019-ARZ020-ARZ029.

&&

$$

AVIATION...18




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