Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Tulsa, OK

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000
FXUS64 KTSA 030211
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
911 PM CDT THU JUL 2 2015

...UPDATE...

.DISCUSSION...
A SURFACE FRONTAL BOUNDARY REMAINED NEARLY STATIONARY FROM WESTERN
OKLAHOMA...ACROSS NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND FAR NORTHWEST ARKANSAS
INTO FAR SOUTHEAST MISSOURI THIS EVENING. THIS FEATURE INTERACTING
WITH DAYTIME HEATING AND SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY AIDED IN STRONG
TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING ALONG AND NEAR THE FRONT THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

AS OF 9 PM...SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS REMAINED OVER
NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS. WITH THE LOSS OF
DAYTIME HEATING AND AN INCREASING CAP...OVERALL SEVERE POTENTIAL
HAS BEGUN A DOWNWARD TREND. THUS...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH
HAS BEEN ALLOWED TO EXPIRE. THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL WILL REMAIN
POSSIBLE THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AS THE FRONT HOLDS OVER THE
REGION. A SMALL SEVERE WIND THREAT WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE WITHIN ANY
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT...OTHERWISE HEAVY RAINFALL AND GUSTY
WINDS LOOK TO BE THE MAIN HAZARDS.

MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND VARIABLE WINDS DURING THE NIGHT SHOULD
HELP KEEP TEMPS IN THE 60S/LOW 70S ACROSS THE CWA. EVENING
UPDATE...WILL BE TO TWEAK POPS/WX/SKY/WIND GRIDS AND TO EXPIRE
THE WATCH BASED ON THE MENTIONED ABOVE. OTHERWISE THE CURRENT
FORECAST SEEMS TO BE HANDLING WELL AT THIS TIME.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   72  88  69  89 /  90  60  50  30
FSM   74  86  70  88 /  80  70  60  40
MLC   73  84  69  87 /  80  60  60  50
BVO   68  87  66  89 /  50  50  40  20
FYV   69  83  64  84 / 100  70  50  30
BYV   68  81  64  83 /  60  60  50  30
MKO   71  84  69  87 / 100  70  50  30
MIO   68  86  67  89 /  50  60  40  20
F10   72  84  69  87 /  80  60  50  40
HHW   73  83  70  87 /  60  70  60  60

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...20



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