Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Tulsa, OK

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FXUS64 KTSA 272349

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
649 PM CDT Tue Jun 27 2017

VFR conditions expected through the forecast period with only
a few high clouds overnight. Strong and gusty south winds will
develop at NE OK/NW AR TAF sites late Wednesday morning into
the afternoon hours.


.PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 342 PM CDT Tue Jun 27 2017/

Mid level troughing to our east is shifting further eastward
allowing more zonal flow into the Plains with resultant pressure
falls increasing southerly flow and low level moisture return.
Evening convection across the High Plains will spread eastward but
likely remain north of the area. Warming profiles will then
increase inhibition across the region while allowing temps to
continue a warming trend.

Frontal zone will become increasing active across the Central
Plains late Wednesday and especially Thursday as it continues a
slow southward advance. Convection along the western periphery of
the boundary Thurs afternoon may persist into the overnight hours
as it advances into the forecast area. The operational NAM seems
most aggressive in maintaining convective intensity and coverage
and QPF amounts reflect a stronger convective potential. There
remains considerable uncertainty in this period.

Thereafter the synoptic frontal zone and/or combined convective
outflow will reside across the forecast area providing a focus
for several rounds of convection Friday through Sunday. While the
boundary is likely to become less defined with time, lack of
stronger ridging aloft is likely to allow precip chances to
continue daily into early next week.




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