000
FXUS64 KTSA 191716
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
1216 PM CDT WED JUN 19 2013

.AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM.
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. SMALL
CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS OVER MAINLY NE OK AFTER 10Z...HIGHEST ODDS
AT KBVO WHERE PROB30 THUNDER WILL BE CARRIED.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1034 AM CDT WED JUN 19 2013/

DISCUSSION...
THUNDERSTORM COMPLEX CONTINUES TO DIVE SOUTH ACROSS TX PANHANDLE
THIS MORNING WITH SOME ASSOCIATED ANVIL CIRRUS SPREADING INTO FAR
WESTERN REACHES OF THE FORECAST AREA. IN ADDITION A RELATIVE
MOIST AXIS FROM ARKLATEX INTO NC OK ASSOCIATED WITH LOWER CLOUDS
AND WHILE AN ISOLATED STORM OR TWO MAY DEVELOP IN THIS AREA...FEEL
THAT WITH RISING MID LEVEL HEIGHTS THE OVERALL COVERAGE/PROB TOO
LOW TO INCLUDE IN FORECAST. THIS MAY BECOME FOCUS FOR OVERNIGHT
STORM COMPLEX DEVELOPING OVER CENTRAL PLAINS WHICH WILL HAVE A
HIGHER THREAT OF MOVING INTO EASTERN OK BY EARLY THU MORNING
HOWEVER. OVERALL FORECAST APPEARS ON TRACK AND WILL MAKE UPDATES
FOR LESS CLOUD COVER ACROSS EASTERN AREAS AND TO INCORPORATE
HOURLY TRENDS.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 617 AM CDT WED JUN 19 2013/

AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM.
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES APPEAR TOO LOW TO MENTION AT NE OK
TAF SITES AT THIS TIME.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 303 AM CDT WED JUN 19 2013/

DISCUSSION...
A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WILL BEGIN TO NUDGE INTO THE
AREA FROM THE SOUTHWEST TODAY. BEFORE WE GET INTO SOMETHING
OF A DRY PERIOD...THE AREA WILL HAVE TO CONTEND WITH A COUPLE
OF THUNDERSTORM COMPLEXES. THIS MORNING THERE IS THUNDERSTORM
COMPLEX THAT EXTENDS FROM SOUTHWEST KANSAS INTO THE TEXAS
PANHANDLE. THE LATEST HRRR SHOWS THIS COMPLEX MOVING INTO
CENTRAL OKLAHOMA THIS MORNING AS IT DECAYS. HAVE LEFT POPS OUT
OF THE FORECAST FOR TODAY BUT NOT FEELING OVERLY CONFIDENT ABOUT
THIS DECISION. COULD SEE SOME REDEVELOPMENT ON THE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY
CREATED BY THIS COMPLEX THIS AFTERNOON.

ANOTHER THUNDERSTORM COMPLEX IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ACROSS WESTERN
KANSAS AGAIN THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING AND MAKE A RUN AT NORTHEAST
OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS LATE TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY. DO
HAVE POPS IN THE FORECAST TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS FEATURE AS THE
MODELS HAVE BEEN CONSISTENTLY SHOWING THIS FOR SEVERAL RUNS.

THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD OVER THE AREA THROUGH
THE WEEKEND. THERE ARE SOME SIGNS THAT THERE MAY BE ENOUGH WEAKNESS
IN THE RIDGE THAT SOME ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY AFTERNOONS IN THE FAVORED TERRAIN AREAS OF
SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA INTO NORTHWEST ARKANSAS.

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

AVIATION...14