Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Tulsa, OK

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000
FXUS64 KTSA 031746
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
1146 AM CST TUE MAR 3 2015

.AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM/KROG.
FOR THE 18Z TAFS... IFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT ALL TAF SITES
THROUGH MOST OF THE 24 HOUR FORECAST PERIOD. NORTHERLY WINDS WILL
BECOME STRONG AND GUSTY AFTER PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT THIS EVENING.
FROZEN PRECIPITATION WILL LIKELY AFFECT ALL SITES BEGINNING BY
EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING... WITH THE EXCEPTION OF FSM AND MLC WHICH
SHOULD REMAIN ABOVE FREEZING UNTIL LATER IN THE DAY.


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1055 AM CST TUE MAR 3 2015/

..UPDATE...

DISCUSSION...
SCATTERED LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE AREA THIS
AFTERNOON. HAVE INCREASED POPS ACROSS THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE
CWA TO BE MORE IN LINE WITH THE REST OF THE FORECAST AREA. NO
OTHER CHANGES TO THE FORECAST ARE NECESSARY AT THIS TIME. UPDATED
PRODUCTS HAVE BEEN SENT.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 518 AM CST TUE MAR 3 2015/

AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM/KROG.
IFR CIGS AND MVFR VSBYS WILL CONTINUE FOR MUCH OF THE TAF PERIOD.
THERE MAY BE A BRIEF WINDOW FOR MVFR CIGS THIS AFTERNOON...OTHERWISE
THE AFOREMENTIONED IFR WILL PREVAIL OVERNIGHT...ESPECIALLY ACROSS
NE OK AND NW AR AS FZRAPL CHANCES INCREASE. A FRONT MOVING THROUGH
THE AREA WILL RESULT IN A WIND SHIFT TO THE NORTH TONIGHT...GUSTY
SFC WINDS OF 20-25 KTS CAN BE EXPECTED...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE NE
OK AND NW AR SITES.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 408 AM CST TUE MAR 3 2015/

DISCUSSION...
SOUTH WINDS AND RESULTANT WARM AIR/MOISTURE ADVECTION HAS KEPT
TEMPERATURES NEARLY STEADY OVERNIGHT. SOME AREAS OF FOG HAVE
DEVELOPED WHICH HAS BEEN TEMPORARILY DENSE AT TIMES...BUT COVERAGE
ISN`T WIDESPREAD ENOUGH TO WARRANT A DENSE FOG ADVISORY AT THIS
TIME. OTHERWISE...EXPECT A RELATIVELY MILD AFTERNOON WITH SOME AREAS
OF LIGHT SHOWERS.

BIG WEATHER CHANGES IN STORE FOR TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY AS A STRONG
COLD FRONT SWEEPS THROUGH. PRECIPITATION WILL EXPAND IN COVERAGE
TUESDAY NIGHT AS THE FORECAST AREA COMES UNDER THE ENTRANCE REGION
OF AN 180+ KT UPPER LEVEL JET. FORECAST SOUNDINGS APPEAR WARM ENOUGH
FOR MOSTLY RAIN THROUGH ABOUT 06Z...BUT EXPECT A TRANSITION TO
FREEZING RAIN AND EVENTUALLY SLEET AND SNOW FOR NE OK AND NW AR
LATER TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. THIS TRANSITION WILL OCCUR LATER
FOR SE OK AND WCNTRL AR...WITH THE WINTRY MIX DEVELOPING BY
WEDNESDAY MORNING AND EVENTUALLY ENDING AS SNOW AS THE PRECIPITATION
WINDS DOWN WEDNESDAY NIGHT. NORTHWEST AR STILL LOOKS TO HAVE THE BEST
SHOT AT SIGNIFICANT SNOW...WITH AROUND 2 TO 4 INCHES EXPECTED...AND
SOME LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS POSSIBLE AT THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS.
SIGNIFICANT ICING IS POSSIBLE ACROSS PARTS OF SE OK INTO WCNTRL
AR...WITH AMOUNTS BEING HIGHLY DEPENDENT ON HOW QUICKLY THE
SUB-FREEZING LOW-LEVEL AIR ARRIVES.

HOW TO HANDLE THE WINTER WEATHER HEADLINES IS A RIDICULOUSLY TOUGH
CALL. MOST OF ERN OK WILL LIKELY REMAIN IN ADVISORY CRITERIA FOR
ACCUMULATING FREEZING RAIN/SLEET/SNOW...AND WILL HOLD OFF ON
ADVISORY AT THIS TIME BEING THAT PRECIP WILL BE MOSTLY LATE 2ND
PERIOD (TUE NIGHT) INTO THE 3RD PERIOD (WED). CURRENT SNOWFALL
FORECAST HAS PARTS OF NW AR...MAINLY CARROLL AND MADISON
COUNTIES...REACHING WARNING CRITERIA (4+ INCHES) LATE WEDNESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY EVENING. CONFIDENCE JUST STILL ISN`T THERE FOR AN UPGRADE
TO A WARNING AT THIS TIME...SO WILL OPT TO KEEP THE WATCH AS IS.
HOPEFULLY THE 12Z DATA WILL CLEAR THINGS UP A BIT.

THURSDAY WILL BE COLD IN THE WAKE OF THE EXITING SYSTEM...WITH VERY
CHILLY LOWS EXPECTED FOR FRIDAY MORNING. BUT A STRONG WARM UP IS
ANTICIPATED FOR THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...WITH HIGHS
REACHING THE 60S BY MONDAY/TUESDAY.

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM 4 AM WEDNESDAY TO MIDNIGHT THURSDAY FOR
     ARZ001-ARZ002-ARZ010-ARZ011-ARZ019-ARZ020-ARZ029.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...99
LONG TERM....99
AVIATION...06




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