Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Tulsa, OK

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000
FXUS64 KTSA 160316
AFDTSA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
916 PM CST Mon Jan 15 2018

.DISCUSSION...
Radar composite indicates area of very light snow, much of which is
not reaching the ground due to very dry air below cloud base,
extending across east central Oklahoma and west central Arkansas. A
few flurries possible with this for the next few hours as it
continues to shift south. Little to no additional accumulation
expected.

Another area of precipitation developed late this afternoon over
North Texas and this area continues to translate toward southeastern
Oklahoma this evening. Hi-res rapid refresh models suggest northern
periphery of NTX precip shield should expand into southeastern
Oklahoma overnight, before deepening dry air shunts it south and east
away from our forecast area late. Arctic air has already deepened
enough over southeastern Oklahoma and column has become cold enough
to support snow. However, forecast soundings there suggest very dry
air from the surface to about 6500`, so believe this light precip
will struggle to reach the ground overnight. Ongoing forecast has low
chance pops and very light qpf/snowfall across this region and
believe that will address the potential overnight.

Latest surface obs suggest wind chill values of -5 to 10 degrees
already occurring across our area. Much of the area will see -5 to
-15 degree readings by morning. Wind Chill Advisory continues as is
 through noon Tuesday.

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...Wind Chill Advisory until noon CST Tuesday for OKZ049-054>076.

AR...Wind Chill Advisory until noon CST Tuesday for ARZ001-002-010-
     011-019-020-029.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...69



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