460
FXUS64 KTSA 071507
AFDTSA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
1007 AM CDT Mon Jul 7 2025

...New UPDATE...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 1140 PM CDT Sun Jul 6 2025
   - Daily rain and storm chances will continue through the next
     week with higher chances for the first half of the week.

   - Organized severe weather is not expected.However, storms
     will be capable of producing localized heavy rainfall and
     gusty winds.

   - Afternoon heat indices will creep up into the 95-105F range
     toward the latter half of next week, with a weak cold front
     possible by next weekend.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 945 AM CDT Mon Jul 7 2025

Isolated showers noted across eastern OK this morning will
continue periodically. Most guidance suggests more robust
convection this afternoon, with coverage favored along and
southeast of I-44. Precip water values near 2 inches analyzed
south of the Red River this morning continue to advect north,
thus any more organized storms could produce localized torrential
rainfall and potentially wet microbursts, but impactful weather
should remain limited in coverage and duration.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Through Monday) Issued at 1140 PM CDT Sun Jul 6 2025

Showers and storms will gradually end overnight with just isolated
showers possibly lingering past sunrise Monday. The overall pattern
remains similar however the remnant outflow boundary and weak
influence from mid level troughing does raise a chance of afternoon
showers and storms over a broader portion of the forecast area
Monday afternoon through evening. Expect a similar decline in precip
chances into the overnight hours Monday night. Isolated strong
storms and heavy downpours remain the primary hazards.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Tuesday through Sunday) Issued at 1140 PM CDT Sun Jul 6 2025

A stronger wave continues to be shown moving across the central
CONUS on Tuesday with the influence extending into the southern
Plains on the periphery of the upper ridge. A trend upward in
overall shower and storm coverage is expected across the local
region along with a few more strong to severe storms through the
afternoon and evening hours.

Daily thunderstorm chances continue Wednesday through Friday though
the overall coverage is forecast to trend downward while high temps
warm a few degrees. Afternoon heat index values and corresponding
heat risk will tend upward for mid to late week.
Guidance continues to indicate the upper ridge weakens across the
western CONUS allowing a weak cold front to push into the region
toward next weekend. This scenario carries uncertainties largely
associated with climatology but the trend remains in the guidance.
Should this occur expect daily shower and storm chances to increase
while temps remain near to slightly below seasonal normals.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 544 AM CDT Mon Jul 7 2025

Early morning isolated storms have developed near FYV in the past
hour or so, making a slow eastward approach to that airport.
Depending on where this development is located relative to FYV at
TAF issuance time, a short TEMPO may be included at the start of
the TAF to cover any potential impacts. Given much weaker
development to the west of XNA and ROG, trends will have to be
monitored as well for possible mention during the first hour or
two of the TAF period at these sites. Other than the immediate
thunderstorm potential impacts, mid afternoon into evening
development remains expected, with highest coverage from SE OK
into W AR. Will keep the existing PROB30s at all 8 sites for now,
with both the HRRR and RRFS continuing to show development into
the NE OK sites as well.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   90  73  90  72 /  20  20  40  20
FSM   94  74  91  73 /  30  30  60  30
MLC   91  72  90  72 /  30  20  40  30
BVO   89  70  89  69 /  20  20  40  20
FYV   89  70  88  69 /  40  30  60  30
BYV   87  70  89  68 /  40  30  60  30
MKO   89  72  88  71 /  30  20  40  30
MIO   89  72  88  70 /  30  30  50  20
F10   89  72  90  71 /  30  20  40  30
HHW   92  72  90  72 /  30  20  50  30

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...None.
AR...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...14
LONG TERM....07
AVIATION...22