Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Tulsa, OK

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000
FXUS64 KTSA 280525
AFDTSA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
1125 PM CST Sun Nov 27 2016

.AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM/KROG.
Scattered thunderstorms will develop later tonight as an upper wave
and cold front approach. Fast moving nature of scattered convection
warrants tempo groups for thunder at all sites...with the smallest
window for convection across the northeast OK sites. MVFR cigs to
prevail at most sites through ~12z across northeast Oklahoma...and
through ~15-16z across the northwest Arkansas sites. VFR
conditions will prevail once the cold front passes and drier
conditions ensue as w-sw winds develop behind the boundary. Sfc
gusts around 25 kts will be possible from late morning through the
afternoon.



&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 935 PM CST Sun Nov 27 2016/

..UPDATE...

DISCUSSION...
Potent wave rotating around the southern base of the larger
Northern Plains cyclone is currently passing across Arizona and
will begin to influence weather across the Southern Plains late
tonight through Monday morning. Convective initiation has trended
slightly later and further west across N TX with short term model
runs and this is plausible given current location of sfc
boundaries. As lift increases across the region downstream of the
aforementioned wave, the more widespread convection will expand
across SE OK and into NW AR with a risk of damaging winds with the
strongest storms. Updated forecast will delay mention of precip
until after midnight with most locations having already seen the
overnight low temp.

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...None.
AR...None.
&&

$$


AVIATION...23



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