000
FXUS64 KTSA 022042
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
242 PM CST MON MAR 2 2015

.DISCUSSION...
MODELS IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT THIS AFTERNOON WITH THE POTENTIAL
FOR SIGNIFICANT WINTER WEATHER ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE AREA LATE
TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. A WINTER STORM WATCH WILL BE ISSUED
FOR NORTHWEST ARKANSAS.

IN THE SHORT TERM...AS INITIAL SHORT WAVE SHIFTS INTO THE CENTRAL
PLAINS...SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL SPREAD ACROSS EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND
NORTHWEST ARKANSAS TONIGHT INTO THE DAY WEDNESDAY AS STRONGER
ISENTROPIC LIFT DEVELOPS. ALTHOUGH MOST LOCATIONS WILL RECEIVE
MEASURABLE RAINFALL...OVERALL AMOUNTS WILL LIKELY BE LIGHT.

STRONG COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA EARLY TUESDAY
EVENING WITH A CONTINUED CHANCE FOR MAINLY SCATTERED SHOWERS
AHEAD AND ALONG FRONTAL PASSAGE. COLD FRONT WILL PUSH INTO FAR
SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA BY WEDNESDAY MORNING WITH SIGNIFICANTLY
COLDER/BRISK CONDITIONS DEVELOPING BEHIND THE FRONT. PRECIPITATION
WILL LIKELY BEGIN TO INCREASE IN COVERAGE/SPREAD INTO THE AREA
LATE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY AS 190 KNOT UPPER JET STREAK
STRENGTHENS...EXTENDING NORTHEAST INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION.

RAIN/FREEZING RAIN WILL BE LIKELY INITIALLY...BEFORE QUICKLY
TRANSITIONING TO A SLEET/FREEZING RAIN MIX...THEN BECOMING ALL
SNOW FROM NORTH TO SOUTH. HEAVIER SNOW/SLEET AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED
ACROSS NORTHWEST ARKANSAS...ESPECIALLY IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN WITH
HEAVIER ICE ACCUMULATIONS POSSIBLE ACROSS SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND
THE ARKANSAS RIVER VALLEY. THE WINTER STORM WATCH AND/OR WARNING
COULD BE EXPANDED TO INCLUDE PARTS OF EASTERN OKLAHOMA AS SNOW/ICE
AMOUNTS BECOME MORE CERTAIN.

WINTRY PRECIPITATION EXPECTED TO SHIFT SOUTHEAST WEDNESDAY EVENING
AS MAIN UPPER TROUGH AXIS PASSES. COLD CONDITIONS BEHIND SYSTEM
THURSDAY BEFORE SLOW WARMING TREND DEVELOPS THROUGH THE WEEKEND
AS SURFACE HIGH SHIFTS EAST WITH SOUTHERLY WINDS RETURNING.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   36  55  25  30 /  30  30  70  60
FSM   39  55  38  38 /  30  70  70  80
MLC   39  58  30  33 /  30  40  70  80
BVO   36  52  24  31 /  20  30  50  50
FYV   36  53  26  30 /  30  70  70  80
BYV   35  52  24  28 /  30  60  70  80
MKO   35  57  27  31 /  30  40  70  70
MIO   36  51  21  30 /  30  40  60  60
F10   37  58  26  31 /  30  30  70  70
HHW   40  61  41  42 /  30  60  70  80

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM 4 AM WEDNESDAY TO MIDNIGHT THURSDAY FOR
     ARZ001-ARZ002-ARZ010-ARZ011-ARZ019-ARZ020-ARZ029.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...05
LONG TERM....12