Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Tulsa, OK

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000
FXUS64 KTSA 022300
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
600 PM CDT WED SEP 2 2015

.AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM/KROG.
For the 0z TAFs, VFR conditions will prevail through the forecast
period for all sites.



&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 252 PM CDT WED SEP 2 2015/

DISCUSSION...

Fairly quiet weather will continue through the rest of this week
and the long holiday weekend, with slightly above normal
temperatures prevailing beneath a persistent upper level ridge.
Heat index values will approach triple digits by the weekend,
which could cause heat stress impacts for those spending a lot of
time outdoors, although admittedly, conditions could be (and have
been in the recent past) a lot worse for early September. Isolated
diurnal thunderstorms will be possible in the high terrain areas
of southeast Oklahoma and northwest Arkansas both Saturday and
Sunday afternoon in response to a weakness on the east side of the
ridge. Coverage is currently not expected to be big enough to
mention in the official forecast at this point but very well could
as the weekend approaches.

Better thunderstorm chances will develop Monday as the ridge
flattens and a cool front approaches but remains north of the
region. Additional thunderstorm potential will exist through next
week as the front lingers near Oklahoma and Arkansas. Near normal
temperatures will continue through at least the early part of the
week.

A pattern change looks to occur during the middle to latter part
of next week, with northwest flow developing over the central
United States, ushering cooler air and even better rain chances
into Oklahoma and Arkansas. The largest effects from the pattern
change are currently most likely to arrive after this valid
forecast period.

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

AVIATION...06


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