Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Tulsa, OK

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871
FXUS64 KTSA 222000
AFDTSA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
300 PM CDT FRI JUL 22 2016

.DISCUSSION...
Area observations/mesonet showing heat index values near 105F
across much of the area...despite some improving mixing of
surface dewpoints. Very little change expected through the weekend
as the upper ridge remains in control...and have extended the heat
advisory into Sunday for all areas. Remember...only 70 days
until October.

Afternoon convection should stay east of the forecast area
today...but have maintained low-end afternoon PoPs for the terrain
areas both Saturday and Sunday as mid-level heights expected to
fall modestly.

Retrograding upper ridge will result in more conducive conditions
for periodic showers/thunderstorms for much of next week. Have
kept PoPs mainly in the low chance category for now...but could
see higher chances develop late next week as ECMWF/GFS suggests
stronger northwesterly upper flow across the region. Temperatures
expected to fall back closer to seasonal averages.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   80 101  80 100 /   0   0   0  10
FSM   79 100  78  98 /  10  20  10  20
MLC   77 100  78  98 /   0  10   0  10
BVO   73 100  74  98 /   0   0   0  10
FYV   73  95  74  94 /   0  20  10  20
BYV   75  96  75  95 /   0  20  10  30
MKO   77 100  76  97 /   0  10   0  10
MIO   76  99  76  98 /   0   0   0  10
F10   77 101  78  98 /   0   0   0  10
HHW   78 101  77  98 /  10  20  10  20

&&

.TSA Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
OK...Heat Advisory until 9 PM CDT this evening for OKZ049-053>076.

     Heat Advisory from noon to 9 PM CDT Saturday for OKZ049-053>076.

     Heat Advisory from noon to 7 PM CDT Sunday for OKZ049-053>076.

AR...Heat Advisory until 9 PM CDT this evening for ARZ001-002-010-011-
     019-020-029.

     Heat Advisory from noon to 9 PM CDT Saturday for ARZ001-002-010-
     011-019-020-029.

     Heat Advisory from noon to 7 PM CDT Sunday for ARZ001-002-010-
     011-019-020-029.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...20
LONG TERM....18



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