Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Tulsa, OK

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000
FXUS64 KTSA 180355
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
1055 PM CDT SUN AUG 17 2014

.UPDATE...

POPS HAVE BEEN MODIFIED OVERNIGHT BASED ON THE LATEST RADAR
TRENDS. SEE DISCUSSION BELOW.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

A LARGE MCS HAS ORGANIZED OVER NORTH CENTRAL KS THIS
EVENING...BASICALLY A MERGER BETWEEN 2 SMALLER SCALE COMPLEXES
FROM EARLIER IN THE DAY. THE MCS HAS A WELL FORMED COLD POOL AND
WILL BE PLOWING INTO A WARM AND HUMID AIRMASS CHARACTERIZED BY
LOW 70S DEWPOINTS ACROSS SE KS INTO NE OK. THE LATEST HRRR
BASICALLY DISSIPATES THE MAIN COMPLEX...DEVELOPS NEW STORMS ALONG
ITS OUTFLOW TO ITS SOUTH AND WEST AND THEN BRINGS IT DOWN INTO
NORTHERN OK LATER. THE LATEST RADAR MOSAIC DOESN`T SHOW ANY SIGNS
THAT THE MCS IS ON A WEAKENING TREND...AS IT STAYS FAIRLY CLOSE TO
THE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY PRECEDING IT. I HAVE THUS INSERTED SOME SMALL
POPS ACROSS NE OK AND NW AR FOR LATE TONIGHT. THIS WILL NEED TO BE
MONITORED THRU THE NIGHT.

LACY

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 844 PM CDT SUN AUG 17 2014/

DISCUSSION...
ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE ACROSS NORTHWEST ARKANSAS AND
NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA THIS EVENING IN THE VICINITY OF A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY
THAT IS DRAPED ACROSS THE AREA. THIS ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE
OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING. WILL ALSO CONTINUE
LOW POPS ACROSS EXTREME SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA THROUGH THE NIGHT AS A WEAK MID-LEVEL
SHORTWAVE CONTINUES TO AFFECT THE AREA. CURRENT FORECAST LOOKS GOOD WITH ONLY
A FEW MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO THE FIRST PERIOD GRIDS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   72  96  74  99 /  10   0   0   0
FSM   73  94  73  96 /   0   0   0   0
MLC   72  94  74  95 /  10   0   0   0
BVO   67  95  71  97 /  20   0   0   0
FYV   66  90  68  92 /  20   0   0   0
BYV   67  91  69  95 /  20   0   0  10
MKO   70  94  72  96 /  10   0   0   0
MIO   68  93  71  96 /  20   0  10   0
F10   71  94  72  95 /   0   0   0   0
HHW   71  94  72  94 /  20   0   0   0

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

LONG TERM....30





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