Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Tulsa, OK

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000
FXUS64 KTSA 211044
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
544 AM CDT THU MAY 21 2015

.AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM/KROG.

ONGOING MVFR CIGS SHOULD LIFT BY AFTERNOON...WITH VFR CONDITIONS
PERSISTING THROUGH THE REST OF THE PERIOD. LOW CHANCE OF TSRA
AFFECTING MAINLY THE E OK TERMINALS PRIOR TO 12Z...BUT MORE LIKELY
AFTER 12Z SO WILL LEAVE MENTION OUT OF THE TAFS FOR NOW.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 409 AM CDT THU MAY 21 2015/

DISCUSSION...
A FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE MOVING ACROSS FAR SOUTHEAST
OKLAHOMA AND THESE MAY PERSIST FOR AT LEAST SEVERAL MORE HOURS. TO
THE NORTH...SOME PARTIAL CLEARING HAS OCCURRED AND MANY PLACES
WILL SEE SOME SUNSHINE TODAY. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN
UNSEASONABLY COOL THOUGH EVEN WITH THE SUN.

THE NEXT ROUND OF WIDESPREAD SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL IS LURKING
THOUGH AS AN INITIAL IMPULSE LIFTS NORTHEAST FROM THE SOUTHWEST
U.S. TROUGH LATE TONIGHT AND FRIDAY. WIDESPREAD RAIN AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT THE AREA DURING THE DAY FRIDAY WITH
RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 1-2 INCHES LIKELY IN SOME PLACES. INITIALLY
LOW DEWPOINTS AND THE EXPECTED TIMING OF THE RAIN FROM EARLY
MORNING TO LATE AFTERNOON ENSURES HIGH TEMPERATURES FRIDAY WILL BE
NEAR RECORD LOW READINGS FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR WITH SOME PLACES
REMAINING IN THE 50S.

THE SOUTHWEST U.S. SYSTEM WILL BE SLOW TO LIFT NORTHEAST INTO THE
PLAINS SO PERIODS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND. DEWPOINTS WILL BE ON THE RISE LATE
FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY SO TEMPERATURES WILL WARM BACK TO CLOSER
TO THE SEASONAL NORMALS OVER THE WEEKEND. EXCESSIVE RAINFALL
AMOUNTS WILL OCCUR IN SOME PLACES WITH LOCAL AMOUNTS WELL OVER 5
INCHES. THUS HAVE HOISTED A FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR EASTERN OKLAHOMA
TO RUN FROM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT. EVENTUALLY THE
WATCH WILL LIKELY NEED TO BE EXPANDED EAST INTO ARKANSAS. THE
SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL WILL ALSO INCREASE OVER THE WEEKEND BUT
THE FREQUENT ROUNDS OF SHOWERS AND STORMS MAY HELP TO LIMIT
OVERALL STORM INTENSITIES.

A SOMEWHAT DRIER AND WARMER WEATHER PATTERN LOOKS TO TAKE OVER
NEXT WEEK ALTHOUGH NEAR DAILY CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL
CONTINUE.

WENT SEVERAL DEGREES COOLER THAN GUIDANCE HIGH TEMPERATURES FRIDAY
FOR REASONS MENTIONED ABOVE BUT OTHERWISE STAYED CLOSE TO GUIDANCE
TEMPERATURES THE NEXT COUPLE DAYS.

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM 7 AM FRIDAY TO 7 AM MONDAY FOR OKZ049-
     OKZ053-OKZ054-OKZ055-OKZ056-OKZ057-OKZ058-OKZ059-OKZ060-
     OKZ061-OKZ062-OKZ063-OKZ064-OKZ065-OKZ066-OKZ067-OKZ068-
     OKZ069-OKZ070-OKZ071-OKZ072-OKZ073-OKZ074-OKZ075-OKZ076.

AR...NONE.
&&

$$

AVIATION...22





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