000
FXUS64 KTSA 222329
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
629 PM CDT TUE JUL 22 2014

.AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM.
ONGOING VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL FOR MOST LOCATIONS OVERNIGHT.
CONVECTION IS LIKELY TO DEVELOP ALONG A SLOW MOVING FRONTAL
BOUNDARY OVERNIGHT...AND HAS A CHANCE OF BUILDING WESTWARD INTO
WESTERN AR LATE TONIGHT INTO WED MORNING. THE AGGRESSIVE WESTWARD
DEVELOPMENT SHOWN BY SOME SHORT TERM MODELS IS DEEMED AN OUTLIER
SOLUTION AT THIS POINT. ADDITIONAL SCATTERED STORM DEVELOPMENT IS
POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY. OUTSIDE OF STRONGER CONVECTION CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED TO REMAIN VFR.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 340 PM CDT TUE JUL 22 2014/

DISCUSSION...
MID LEVEL RIDGE OVER SOUTHWEST AND CENTRAL STATES THIS AFTERNOON
WITH HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS PREVAILING. HEAT INDEX VALUES IN
EXCESS OF 105 DEGREES HAVE BEEN OBSERVED ACROSS MUCH OF NE
OKLAHOMA AND HEAT ADVISORY WILL CONTINUE THROUGH 01Z. SOME SHORT
RANGE MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP NEAR
FRONT AND OUTFLOW BOUNDARY ACROSS MISSOURI THIS EVENING WITH
NORTHEAST FLOW AROUND UPPER RIDGE ALLOWING SOME TO MOVE TOWARD NW
ARKANSAS LATER TONIGHT. HAVE ADDED A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR LATE
TONIGHT AS A RESULT.

EAST-WEST ORIENTED 850MB THERMAL RIDGE AXIS SHIFTS FARTHER SOUTH
WEDNESDAY AS WEAK COLD FRONT WORKS ITS WAY INTO THE FORECAST AREA
DURING THE DAY. THIS WILL BRING EVEN HOTTER TEMPERATURES TO MANY
AREAS. HOWEVER... SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP IN THE AFTERNOON WILL BRING SOME RELIEF TO NORTHEASTERN
AREAS IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENTUALLY POINTS SOUTH AND WEST. STILL
THINK A HEAT ADVISORY IS IN ORDER FOR PARTS OF NORTHEAST AND EAST
CENTRAL OKLAHOMA ALONG WITH CONTINUED HEAT WARNING FOR TULSA METRO
AS TEMPS AHEAD OF STORMS/FRONT WILL REACH NEAR 100. FRONTAL
PASSAGE WILL RESULT IN A MODEST COOL DOWN FOR THURSDAY.

HEAT WILL CRANK BACK UP FRIDAY AND SATURDAY AS RIDGE AMPLIFIES TO
THE WEST AND LOW LEVEL THERMAL RIDGE BUILDS OVER SOUTHERN PLAINS
WITH TEMPS IN SOME AREAS AGAIN NEAR THE CENTURY MARK. BY SUNDAY
HOWEVER A SIGNIFICANT CHANCE IN THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN WILL
BEGIN TO SHAPE UP AND BRING A MUCH STRONGER FRONT INTO THE AREA
SUNDAY AND A RETURN TO BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   76  98  72  94 /  10  30  10   0
FSM   73  96  72  93 /  10  50  20  10
MLC   71  95  72  96 /  10  20  20  10
BVO   71  95  68  94 /  10  30  10   0
FYV   68  90  67  88 /  20  50  20  10
BYV   69  90  65  86 /  20  50  10  10
MKO   72  96  71  94 /  10  30  10  10
MIO   72  92  68  91 /  20  50  10  10
F10   73  96  72  94 /  10  20  10  10
HHW   71  95  74  96 /   0  10  20  10

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING UNTIL 8 PM WEDNESDAY FOR OKZ060.

     HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM TUESDAY FOR OKZ054-OKZ055-OKZ056-OKZ057-
     OKZ058-OKZ059-OKZ061-OKZ062-OKZ064-OKZ065-OKZ066-OKZ067.

     HEAT ADVISORY FROM 1 PM WEDNESDAY TO 8 PM WEDNESDAY FOR OKZ054-
     OKZ055-OKZ056-OKZ059-OKZ061-OKZ062-OKZ064-OKZ065-OKZ066-
     OKZ067-OKZ068-OKZ070-OKZ071-OKZ072-OKZ074.

AR...NONE.
&&

$$

AVIATION...07