Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Tulsa, OK

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000
FXUS64 KTSA 101002
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE Tulsa OK
402 AM CST WED FEB 10 2016

.DISCUSSION...
Fire weather conditions will again be the focus today. Strong low
level warm advection will overspread the region and combine with
southwesterly winds and clear skies to allow afternoon temps to
warm rapidly. Satellite derived precip water data currently place
a plume of slightly higher moisture over the region and short term
guidance is consistent in not mixing afternoon dewpoints
drastically lower. This...along with an a strong west to east
gradient in afternoon temps...raises uncertainty in the afternoon
humidity forecast. Nevertheless expected conditions will support a
heightened fire weather concern and a watch has been posted
accordingly which will be refined with forecasts through the day.

A cold front will slowly push through the area late tonight into
Thursday aiding to push temps nearer seasonal normals. A brief
moderation on Friday ahead of stronger cold front which will push
weekend temperatures below normal. All frontal passages will
remain dry.

The next chance of precip arrives on Sunday-Sunday night with
increasing agreement on light precip spreading across the area.
Initial precip is likely to fall into a very dry airmass with wet
bulb effects allow a change over to frozen precip. This looks most
likely across far NE OK into far NW AR. This type of detail in low
level temps will continue to be refined...however any amounts
continue to look rather light with more robust precip focuses
further south and east. Temperatures quickly moderate with above
normal temperatures likely for the first part of next week.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   66  31  52  31 /   0   0   0   0
FSM   58  34  58  33 /   0   0   0   0
MLC   64  37  59  31 /   0   0   0   0
BVO   64  24  49  25 /   0   0   0   0
FYV   53  29  50  26 /   0   0   0   0
BYV   52  28  47  28 /   0   0   0   0
MKO   63  34  54  30 /   0   0   0   0
MIO   55  28  46  27 /   0   0   0   0
F10   64  35  54  32 /   0   0   0   0
HHW   64  37  66  34 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.TSA Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
OK...AR...NONE.
&&

$$

LONG TERM....07


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