000
FXUS64 KTSA 261123
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
523 AM CST THU FEB 26 2015

.AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM/KROG.
MVFR CEILINGS ACROSS NW ARKANSAS WILL TREND TOWARD VFR BY
18Z...WITH VFR THE PREVAILING CONDITION AT ALL SITES AFTER 18Z.
NORTH WINDS WILL GUST NEAR 30 KNOTS AT TIMES THROUGH THIS
AFTERNOON WITH DECREASING SPEEDS AFTER 00Z.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 350 AM CST THU FEB 26 2015/

DISCUSSION...
COLD FRONT WILL CLEAR THE FORECAST AREA BY SUNRISE WITH A SHARP
CHANGE IN AIRMASS RESULTING IN TEMPS SOME 20-30 DEGREES BELOW
NORMAL TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY. A SUBTLE WAVE IS EXPECTED TO GENERATE
PRECIP IN THE HIGH PLAINS THURS NIGHT WHICH THEN ATTEMPTS TO
SPREAD SOUTHEASTWARD INTO PORTIONS OF SE OK ON FRIDAY. LOW LEVELS
WILL REMAIN VERY DRY HOWEVER SOME LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS MAY BE
SEEN.

THE FORECAST BECOMES INCREASINGLY PROBLEMATIC FRI NIGHT INTO
SATURDAY AS THE SFC HIGH BEGINS TO RETREAT AND THE ARCTIC AIRMASS
ATTEMPTS TO ERODE ALL THE WHILE THE NEXT ROUND OF PRECIP DEVELOPS
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND LIFTS NORTHWARD. THIS TYPE OF
PATTERN OFTEN STRUGGLES WITHIN MODEL GUIDANCE AND AT THIS POINT
THE FORECAST TOOK A VERY BROAD BRUSH FOR PRECIP TYPE ON SATURDAY.
CURRENTLY A LIGHT SNOW/SLEET ACCUMULATION ALONG WITH LIGHT ICING
AMTS ALL LOOK PLAUSIBLE W/ TEMPS WARMING ABOVE FREEZING FOR
PORTIONS OF THE AREA BY SAT AFTERNOON. EXPECT THIS PORTION OF THE
FORECAST TO CHANGE.

THE WAVE RESPONSIBLE FOR THE SAT PRECIP WILL ACT TO PUSH THE COLD
AIR BACK SOUTHWARD ONCE IT PASSES...HOWEVER THE DEVELOPING UPPER
AIR PATTERN WILL FAVOR QUICK LEE TROUGHING AND THE BOUNDARY AGAIN
RETURNS NORTHWARD MONDAY. ALL THIS BACK AND FORTH OF SFC BOUNDARIES
BENEATH PREVAILING SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT IS GOING TO MAINTAIN
PRECIP CHANCES. A MORE SOLID PUSH NORTHWARD OF WARMER TEMPS /
HIGHER MOISTURE LOOKS TO ARRIVE ON TUES WITH ASSOCIATED
INSTABILITY WARRANTING A MENTION OF THUNDERSTORMS AHEAD OF THE
NEXT COLD FRONTAL PUSH BY MID NEXT WEEK. AGREEMENT ON THE TIMING
OF THIS BOUNDARY IS NOT IDEAL BUT NOT UNEXPECTED AT THIS RANGE.

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...14
LONG TERM....07
AVIATION...14