000
FXUS64 KTSA 040516
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
1116 PM CST MON MAR 3 2014

.AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM.
THICKENING CIRRUS CONTINUES OVERHEAD WITH SCATTERED LOW CLOUD
LURKING AROUND WESTERN AR AND SE OK. NO STRONG SIGNAL FOR A
PREVAILING LOW CLOUD IMPACT AT TERMINALS SO IT WAS LEFT OUT OF THE
FORECAST...WITH VFR CONDITIONS PREVAILING THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 935 PM CST MON MAR 3 2014/

DISCUSSION...
TEMPS SLOW TO FALL THIS EVENING AS WAVE MOVING ACROSS NORTHERN
MEXICO CONTINUES TO SEN HUGH CLOUDS NORTH ACROSS MUCH OF OKLAHOMA
AND ARKANSAS. THIS WILL BE ABOUT THE ONLY FACTOR KEEPING TEMPS
FROM FALLING INTO SINGLE DIGITS OVER SNOW COVER TONIGHT AS SFC
HIGH WILL REMAIN IN FAVORABLE POSITION FOR RADIATIONAL COOLING...
THOUGH LIGHT SOUTH WINDS MAY PICK UP JUST BEFORE SUNRISE IN AREAS
FROM ABOUT TULSA WEST. A FEW SPOTS IN FAR NE OKLAHOMA HAVE ALREADY
DROPPED TO SINGLE DIGITS AT 9PM AND AS SOUTHERN WAVE DEPARTS A
DECREASE IN HIGH CLOUDS LIKELY ACROSS NORTHERN AREAS AR LEAST
LATER TONIGHT. WITH ALL THIS...WILL LEAVE TEMP FORECAST FOR
TONIGHT AS IS AND WILL MAINLY ADJUST HOURLY VALUES TO REFLECT A
MORE GRADUAL DROP UNTIL LATE TONIGHT.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 349 PM CST MON MAR 3 2014/

DISCUSSION...
A COLD DAY TODAY...FOLLOWED BY A COLD NIGHT TONIGHT.
GIVEN AT LEAST SOME SNOW/SLEET COVER MOST LOCATIONS
MIN TEMPERATURES  ZERO TO 10 DEGREE RANGE  NORTH OF
I-40.  WILDCARD WILL BE HOW MUCH OUTGOING RADIATION
WILL BE HELD IN CHECK BY HIGH CLOUDS.  FORECAST MIN
TEMPS NEAR RECORD LOWS.

SLOW WARMING TUESDAY.  REGION BETWEEN SOUTHERN WAVE
AND NORTHERN MOISTURE STREAMING INTO CENTRAL PLAINS
AS WAVE TOPS RIDGE OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. WAVE
REACHING OUR AREA WEDNESDAY. LATEST MODELS STRONGER
WETTER WITH THIS COMPACT WAVE. RAISED POP TO LIKELY
CATEGORY FOR OUR NORTHERN AREA WEDNESDAY. IF PRECIP
ARRIVES EARLY COULD BE LIMITED FREEZING RAIN IN THE
MORNING.

NICE WARM UP FRIDAY BEFORE  NEXT WAVE BRINGS BETTER
THAN EVEN CHANCE FOR RAIN SATURDAY.
GW

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL    5  37  22  42 /   0   0   0  70
FSM   14  43  20  47 /   0   0   0  40
MLC    9  44  24  46 /   0   0   0  60
BVO    2  36  21  41 /   0   0   0  60
FYV    5  40  15  45 /   0   0   0  60
BYV    5  41  15  43 /   0   0   0  30
MKO    8  39  22  44 /   0   0   0  60
MIO    2  34  18  40 /   0   0   0  60
F10    7  39  24  43 /   0   0   0  60
HHW   17  44  25  49 /   0   0   0  50

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

AVIATION...07