000
FXUS64 KTSA 272332
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
532 PM CST TUE JAN 27 2015

.AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM/KROG.
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. SOUTH
WINDS WILL GUST TO NEAR OR ABOVE 25 KNOTS WEDNESDAY AT ALL SITES
EXCEPT KFSM.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 401 PM CST TUE JAN 27 2015/

DISCUSSION...
MAIN FORECAST CONCERN FOR THIS FORECAST ARE THE CHANCES FOR MIXED
PRECIPITATION IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD...STARTING LATE FRIDAY...AND
PERSISTING INTO SUNDAY.

UNSEASONABLY WARM WEATHER WILL CONTINUE TODAY AND INTO
WEDNESDAY...WITH HIGHS ON WEDNESDAY REACHING WELL INTO THE MID AND
UPPER 70S. STRONG SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL DEVELOP AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING COLD FRONT WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...WITH WIND GUSTS
REACHING BETWEEN 25 AND 30 MILES PER HOUR. THIS WILL CREATE AT
LEAST A LIMITED FIRE SPREAD THREAT. THE COLD FRONT WILL PUSH
THROUGH THE REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT...DROPPING TEMPERATURES BACK TO
NEAR NORMAL FOR LATE JANUARY.

AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL DEEPEN OVER THE SOUTHERN
ROCKIES...ADVECTING MOISTURE NORTHEASTWARD INTO THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS STARTING LATE FRIDAY AND INTO SATURDAY MORNING. RECENT
MODELS HAVE BEEN TRENDING WARMER OVER THE PAST FEW RUNS...THUS
TEMPERATURES INITIALLY LOOK TO BE WARM ENOUGH FOR ALL THE
PRECIPITATION TO FALL AS RAIN. THE EXCEPTION TO THIS WILL BE IN
THE HIGHER ELEVATION AREAS OF NORTHWEST ARKANSAS...WHERE A MIX OF
RAIN...SLEET...AND SNOW WILL BE POSSIBLE SATURDAY MORNING.
SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA COULD SEE UP TO AN INCH OF
RAINFALL BETWEEN SATURDAY MORNING TO SUNDAY MORNING. AN UPPER
LEVEL WAVE WILL THEN MOVE INTO THE REGION FROM THE NORTHERN
ROCKIES LATE SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY MORNING...DIRECTING A COLD FRONT
INTO THE AREA. THIS SECOND SURGE OF COLDER AIR WILL LIKELY
TRANSITION THE REMAINING LIGHT PRECIPITATION ACROSS NORTHEAST
OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS OVER TO A WINTRY MIX...MAINLY
ALONG AND NORTH OF A LINE FROM PONCA CITY...TO WINSLOW. MINIMAL
SNOW AND SLEET ACCUMULATIONS ARE POSSIBLE...HOWEVER LITTLE TO NO
IMPACTS ARE EXPECTED. THE PRECIPITATION WILL SHIFT EAST OF THE
AREA BY SUNDAY NIGHT...FOLLOWED BY A DRY PERIOD WITH SEASONAL
TEMPERATURES INTO THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.

&&

$$

AVIATION...05