Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Tulsa, OK

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000
FXUS64 KTSA 271714
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
1214 PM CDT MON JUL 27 2015

.DISCUSSION...

THE 18Z TAF DISCUSSION IS INCLUDED BELOW...

&&

.AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM/KROG.
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL BENEATH HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT. ISOLD
TSRA POTENTIAL OVER IN WRN AR THIS AFTERNOON...BUT NOT LIKELY TO
BE NEAR THE TAF SITES...THUS NO MENTION FOR THIS TAF FORECAST.
SOUTH WINDS SHOULD BE A BIT STRONGER ON TUESDAY...WITH SOME GUSTS
OVER 15KTS ACROSS NE OK.

LACY

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1110 AM CDT MON JUL 27 2015/

DISCUSSION...

VERY LITTLE CHANGE HAS OCCURRED AT 500MB IN THE 12Z UPPER AIR DATA
COMPARED TO 24 HOURS AGO. PERSISTENCE WOULD SUGGEST THAT ELEVATED
HEATING ON THE TERRAIN WILL ONCE AGAIN BE ENOUGH TO GENERATE
ISOLATED STORMS THIS AFTERNOON...AND THE LATEST HRRR/NAM SHOW THIS
SIGNAL. THUS...AN ISOLATED THUNDER POP HAS BEEN INSERTED INTO THE
FORECAST. NO OTHER CHANGES WERE REQUIRED OTHER THAN MINOR TWEAKS
TO THE FORECAST ELEMENTS.

LACY

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 609 AM CDT MON JUL 27 2015/

AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM/KROG.
VFR CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD AT ALL SITES.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 353 AM CDT MON JUL 27 2015/

DISCUSSION...
HOT AND HUMID WEATHER WILL CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT COUPLE DAYS. WILL
ISSUE A HEAT ADVISORY FOR THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING FOR THE
ENTIRE FORECAST AREA EXCEPT FOR FAR NORTHWEST ARKANSAS AND A
SMALL PART OF EAST CENTRAL OKLAHOMA. PARTS OF THE ARKANSAS RIVER
VALLEY MAY COME CLOSE TO WARNING CRITERIA AS THEY DID SUNDAY BUT
MOST PLACES WILL COME UP SHORT.

THE WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY DUE INTO THE AREA AROUND MIDWEEK LOOKS
LIKE IT WILL ARRIVE A BIT QUICKER THAN PREVIOUSLY EXPECTED. WITH
THE UPPER RIDGE STILL FIRMLY IN CONTROL...CONVECTIVE COVERAGE
WITH THE BOUNDARY WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY EVENING LOOKS TOO LOW TO
MENTION AT THIS TIME. THE BETTER...BUT STILL LOW...CHANCE OF
SHOWERS AND STORMS IN OUR AREA WILL BE LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT
THROUGH FRIDAY AS THE UPPER RIDGE BEGINS TO RETROGRADE TO THE WEST
AND UPSLOPE CONVECTION FROM THE HIGH PLAINS MAKES A RUN AT OUR
AREA.

DRY WEATHER SHOULD PREVAIL NEXT WEEKEND WITH TEMPERATURES NEAR THE
SEASONAL NORMALS...IN OTHER WORDS HOT.

STAYED CLOSE TO GUIDANCE TEMPERATURES AND PERSISTENCE THE NEXT
COUPLE DAYS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   97  77  97  75 /   0   0   0   0
FSM   98  77  98  76 /  10  10   0   0
MLC   97  76  97  74 /   0  10   0   0
BVO   96  73  96  72 /   0   0   0  10
FYV   93  73  93  71 /  10  10   0   0
BYV   92  74  95  72 /  20  10   0   0
MKO   96  75  95  73 /  10   0   0   0
MIO   95  74  96  72 /  10   0   0  10
F10   96  75  95  74 /   0   0   0   0
HHW   98  74  98  73 /   0  10   0   0

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR OKZ049-053>068-
     070>076.

AR...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR ARZ019-020-029.

&&

$$

AVIATION...30



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