Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Tulsa, OK

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000
FXUS64 KTSA 011943
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
243 PM CDT WED JUL 1 2015

.DISCUSSION...
A SURFACE LOW WAS ANALYZED ACROSS CENTRAL KS WITH AN ATTENDANT
WEAK FRONT EXTENDING INTO CENTRAL MO. WEAK CONVECTION CONTINUES TO
BUBBLE NEAR NEAR THIS BOUNDARY AND EXPECT SOME STRENGTHENING
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON. MOST OF THIS ACTIVITY WILL
REMAIN TO OUR NORTHWEST...ALTHOUGH COULD HAVE SOME A FEW
SHOWER/STORMS DEVELOP INTO PARTS OF EASTERN OK/NORTHWEST AR LATER
TONIGHT AS ZONE OF BEST LOW-LEVEL WARM AIR ADVECTION SHIFTS SOUTH.

12Z GUIDANCE IN EXCELLENT AGREEMENT BRINGING A SHORTWAVE ACROSS
THE REGION THURSDAY AFTERNOON IN THE NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT.
COMBINATION OF THIS FEATURE...ALONG WITH DAYTIME HEATING...WILL
ALLOW FOR VIGOROUS LATE-AFTERNOON CONVECTION NEAR THE SURFACE
BOUNDARY WHICH SHOULD STRETCH ACROSS ROUGHLY THE NORTHERN 1/3 OF
OK AND INTO AR. IMPROVING 0-6KM BULK SHEAR OF 35-45KTS AND HIGH
INSTABILITY WILL BE SUPPORTIVE OF SEVERE STORMS...WITH THE
ACTIVITY SAGGING SOUTH THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY. LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL WILL BE A CONCERN AS WELL THROUGH THIS PERIOD...WITH PW
VALUES FORECAST TO BE AROUND 2 INCHES.

PERIODIC SHOWER/THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED THROUGH THE HOLIDAY
WEEKEND...AS NORTHWESTERLY UPPER FLOW PERSISTS AND WEAK SURFACE
BOUNDARY REMAINS ACROSS THE AREA. ADDITIONAL HEAVY RAINFALL WILL
BE THE PRIMARY CONCERN...AND AS MENTIONED IN PREVIOUS
DISCUSSIONS...A FLASH FLOOD WATCH MAY BECOME NECESSARY.

UPPER RIDGING BUILDS BACK INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS EARLY NEXT
WEEK...WHICH WILL LIMIT THE CONVECTIVE COVERAGE. HIGHEST POPS WILL
BE MAINLY NEAR THE KS/OK AND MO/AR BORDERS...CLOSEST TO THE
SOUTHERN EDGE OF THE WEAK WESTERLY UPPER FLOW.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   77  93  70  87 /  20  60  60  50
FSM   75  93  74  83 /  20  40  60  70
MLC   75  92  73  83 /  20  30  70  70
BVO   73  91  68  87 /  20  50  50  40
FYV   73  86  67  81 /  30  60  60  60
BYV   74  86  67  81 /  30  50  50  60
MKO   73  90  70  84 /  20  50  60  60
MIO   75  91  67  86 /  30  40  40  40
F10   75  92  72  83 /  20  40  70  60
HHW   72  91  73  84 /  10  10  60  70

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...69
LONG TERM....18



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