Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Tulsa, OK

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000
FXUS64 KTSA 252048
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
248 PM CST THU DEC 25 2014

.DISCUSSION...

A MOSTLY SUNNY AND WINDY CHRISTMAS DAY IS ONGOING. WIND GUSTS
HAVE REACHED OR EXCEEDED 40 MPH IN MANY LOCATIONS. WINDS SHOULD
SUBSIDE SOME AFTER SUNSET...THOUGH WILL REMAIN BREEZY TONIGHT AS
THE GRADIENT REMAINS. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE RETURN WILL BE WELL
UNDERWAY BY FRIDAY MORNING...WITH LOW CLOUDS AND EVEN SOME PATCHY
DRIZZLE POSSIBLE BASED ON THE BLOTCHES OF LOW QPF SEEN IN THE
MODEL DATA.

THE COMBINATION OF FORCING FROM THE APPROACHING UPPER TROUGH AND
THE NORTHWARD SPREAD OF THE WARM CONVEYOR PRECIP WILL LEAD TO
HIGHER PRECIP CHANCES FRIDAY NIGHT. TRENDS IN THE MODEL DATA TODAY
CONTINUE TO SUGGEST THAT PRECIP CHANCES WILL SHIFT EAST QUICKER ON
SATURDAY...ENDING BY SATURDAY EVENING. THE ASSOCIATED FRONT WILL
BE SLIDING SOUTHEAST FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. LAYER TEMPS ARE
FORECAST TO GET COLD ENOUGH TO ALLOW FOR A WINTRY MIX MAINLY NORTH
OF I-44 LATE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING. HOWEVER...WITH A
QUICKER END TO THE PRECIP...AMOUNTS WILL BE LIGHT AT BEST BY THE
TIME IT GETS COLD ENOUGH TO CHANGE THINGS OVER. SO AT THIS
POINT...THE EVENT MAY NOT EVEN WARRANT AN ADVISORY UNLESS THE
TRENDS IN THE MODEL DATA REVERSE.

MODEL DATA CONTINUES TO KEEP PRECIP IN ASSOCIATION WITH A
SECONDARY WAVE ROUNDING THE BASE OF THE EJECTING PARENT TROUGH ON
SUNDAY SOUTH AND EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA.

SIGNIFICANT AMPLIFICATION OF THE UPPER FLOW PATTERN ON THE LARGER
SCALE WILL OCCUR NEXT WEEK OVER NORTH AMERICA...AS UPPER RIDGING
NOSES CLEAR UP INTO THE ARCTIC OCEAN AND DEEP CYCLONIC FLOW
DEVELOPS OVER MUCH OF THE LOWER 48. THE AFOREMENTIONED UPPER AIR
PATTERN IS FAVORABLE FOR ARCTIC AIR TO PLUNGE SOUTH OVER THE
PLAINS...LEADING TO COLDER WEATHER FOR MUCH OF NEXT WEEK. I STUCK
CLOSER TO THE RAW ECMWF SURFACE TEMPS FOR HIGHS TUESDAY THRU
THURSDAY...GIVING RESPECT TO THE ARCTIC AIR. FINALLY...SOME
AGREEMENT AND CONSISTENCY IS SEEN IN THE VARIOUS MEDIUM RANGE
DETERMINISTIC SOLUTIONS TODAY REGARDING THE EVOLUTION OF THE
PATTERN OVER THE CONUS. THE AMPLIFYING RIDGE ALONG THE WEST COAST
OF NOAM WILL INDUCE SIGNIFICANT HEIGHT FALLS OVER THE DESERT
SOUTHWEST EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE GFS/ECMWF/CANADIAN NOW SUGGEST MID
LEVEL CYCLOGENESIS WILL OCCUR FARTHER WEST...CLOSER TO THE WEST
COAST...THUS WILL BE TOO FAR WEST TO FORCE PRECIP OVER OUR AREA AT
LEAST THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. HOWEVER...WE WILL DEAL WITH
THIS SYSTEM AT SOME POINT...MOST LIKELY TOWARD THE END OF NEXT
WEEK AS IT ROUNDS THE BASE OF THE BROAD UPPER TROUGHING OVER THE
CONUS AND EJECTS INTO THE PLAINS. DEPENDING ON HOW QUICKLY THE
ARCTIC AIR RETREATS FROM OUR REGION...AND THIS TENDS TO BE SLOW TO
OCCUR...THE WEATHER AROUND THE BEGINNING OF THE NEW YEAR ON INTO
THE WEEKEND MAY GET A BIT MESSY. STAY TUNED.

LACY

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   45  57  37  40 /   0  20  60  20
FSM   41  58  48  48 /   0  20  60  40
MLC   47  56  41  44 /   0  20  50  30
BVO   42  56  34  39 /   0  20  60  20
FYV   42  54  44  44 /   0  20  60  40
BYV   41  57  45  45 /   0  20  60  40
MKO   44  55  40  42 /   0  20  60  30
MIO   43  56  37  39 /   0  20  60  30
F10   46  56  38  41 /   0  20  60  20
HHW   44  57  48  49 /  10  20  50  50

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM THURSDAY FOR OKZ054-OKZ055-OKZ056-
     OKZ057-OKZ058-OKZ059-OKZ060-OKZ061-OKZ062-OKZ063-OKZ064-
     OKZ065-OKZ066-OKZ067.

AR...NONE.
&&

$$

LONG TERM....30





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