Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Tulsa, OK

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000
FXUS64 KTSA 240859
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE Tulsa OK
359 AM CDT TUE MAY 24 2016

.DISCUSSION...
00z RAOBs across the Southern Plains sampled seasonably high
values of low level moisture while also recording a broad fetch of
steep mid level lapse rates. The result being a broad zone of
strong instability which, when weakly capped amidst subtle
forcing, often causes issues within numerical models. This pattern
has been, and will continue to be, in play through the forecast
period.

Focus for today is ongoing small MCS ongoing over south central OK
which may spread into SE OK later this morning. Also extensive
convection has been maintained across NW KS with veered 50kt low
level jet fueling continued generation along the southwestern
flank. This complex is the larger short term concern as numerous
CAM solutions either sustain the ongoing convection southeastward
or push a remnant outflow boundary into NE OK today. Either
scenario would provide a focus for additional storms to develop in
the aforementioned weakly capped and unstable airmass and pose a
severe weather risk. This scenario contains plenty of uncertainty
but enough data support the potential to raise precip chances
today.

Storm will also form west of the area on the dryline this
afternoon and attempt to spread eastward into E OK this evening
and/or overnight. How far east and to what intensity level largely
depends on how convection evolves during the day.

Wednesday continues to appear as the day with the least amount of
storm coverage. A stronger wave is still on track to influx the
Southern Plains Thursday through Friday. Numerous rounds of severe
storms look likely across the Plains beginning Thurs afternoon
and likely continuing Thursday night into Friday. Thunderstorm
chances will be maintained through next weekend as the pattern
remains unsettled.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   81  71  87  72 /  60  40  20  20
FSM   82  70  85  72 /  60  30  20  20
MLC   80  72  83  73 /  60  50  20  20
BVO   80  68  87  69 /  60  40  20  20
FYV   77  67  82  69 /  60  30  20  20
BYV   78  67  82  69 /  60  30  20  20
MKO   80  69  83  71 /  60  50  20  20
MIO   78  69  84  69 /  60  40  20  20
F10   81  71  83  71 /  60  50  20  20
HHW   81  71  84  71 /  40  50  20  20

&&

.TSA Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

LONG TERM....07



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