Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Tulsa, OK

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000
FXUS64 KTSA 252003
AFDTSA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
303 PM CDT MON JUL 25 2016

.DISCUSSION...
Convection this afternoon continues across southeast Oklahoma and
west central Arkansas along an outflow boundary laid down from the
morning complex that mostly lingered across southeast Kansas and
southwest Missouri. With little in the way of upper
support...expect this convection to decrease this evening with the
loss of daytime heating. Subtle trough axis just north of the area
may touch off additional convection later tonight and tomorrow
morning across northeast Oklahoma and northwest Arkansas. Have
opted to scale back from guidance pops...but overall kept the same
geographical alignment. Highest pops will be across southeast
Oklahoma and west central Arkansas as morning convection
translates southeast...and/or additional convection develops along
any outflow boundaries. Daily chances for thunder will continue
for pretty much the rest of the forecast cycle as the upper ridge
retrogrades to the west. Slightly improved northwest flow becomes
established by the end of the week...which may result in an MCS
impacting parts of northeast OKlahoma and northwest Arkansas
Friday night into Saturday. For the tail end of the forecast
cycle...ECMWF keeps the region in northwest flow...while broad
mid level height rises are noted over the plains. Will keep low
pops going area wide through the weekend. Have gone a little above
guidance for high temperatures in a few early periods...Otherwise
stayed fairly close for the remainder of the forecast.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   77  93  76  92 /  50  50  30  30
FSM   76  96  74  94 /  40  50  10  30
MLC   75  94  75  94 /  30  50  10  30
BVO   72  91  72  92 /  50  50  30  30
FYV   71  89  71  90 /  50  50  20  30
BYV   73  91  72  90 /  50  50  10  30
MKO   76  92  74  93 /  50  50  20  30
MIO   73  94  73  91 /  50  50  30  30
F10   76  92  76  93 /  50  50  30  30
HHW   75  96  76  95 /  40  50  10  30

&&

.TSA Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
OK...None.
AR...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...07
LONG TERM....23


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