000
FXUS64 KTSA 140827
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
327 AM CDT FRI MAR 14 2014

.DISCUSSION...
NEXT COLD FRONT TO IMPACT THE REGION IS CURRENTLY DIPPING INTO NWRN
KS AND WILL ENTER PARTS OF NE OK EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. S/SW WINDS
AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY WILL BE QUITE BREEZY...HELPING TO BOOST TEMPS
INTO THE UPPER 60S/LOWER 70S AREAWIDE. AN ELEVATED FIRE DANGER WILL
PERSIST THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AS RH VALUES DIP BELOW 30 PERCENT.
CONDITIONS SHOULD REMAIN BELOW RED FLAG CRITERIA...AND WILL ISSUE A
FIRE DANGER STATEMENT.

THE FRONT WILL STALL ACROSS NE OK FRIDAY AFTERNOON INTO FRIDAY
NIGHT...THEN EVENTUALLY LIFT BACK N AS A WARM FRONT SATURDAY MORNING
AS LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE SURGES N ACROSS THE AREA. AREAS OF RAIN WITH
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL EXPAND ACROSS THE REGION SATURDAY INTO
SATURDAY NIGHT AS A COMPACT UPPER SYSTEM MOVES ACROSS NRN TX. A FEW
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE LATE IN THE MAINLY ACROSS SE
OK...ALTHOUGH DEGREE OF AFTERNOON HEATING/RESULTANT INSTABILITY
REMAINS IN QUESTION AT THIS TIME. HOWEVER...MOST LOCATIONS SHOULD
RECEIVE AROUND A HALF INCH TO AN INCH OF RAINFALL...WITH SOME
LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS LIKELY.

INTERESTING SCENARIO SETTING UP FOR SUNDAY AS NRN STREAM ENERGY
DIVES ACROSS THE ROCKIES...WITH A DEVELOPING UPPER LOW SET TO MOVE
ACROSS THE SRN PLAINS/LOWER MS VALLEY. THIS WILL PULL IN MUCH COLDER
AIR FOR SUNDAY...AND COULD RESULT IN A MIX OR CHANGEOVER TO SNOW
ACROSS PARTS OF FAR ERN OK/NW AR BEFORE THE PRECIPITATION TAPERS OFF
BY SUNDAY EVENING. HAVE INTRODUCED A RAIN/SNOW MIX FOR THESE AREAS
AT THIS TIME...BUT CONFIDENCE REMAINS RATHER LOW. LOOKS TO BE A
RATHER RAW DAY...WITH STEADY OR SLOWLY FALLING TEMPERATURES AND
GUSTY NORTH WINDS.

TEMPERATURES WILL BOUNCE BACK TO NEAR OR ABOVE SEASONAL NORMS BY
TUESDAY...ALTHOUGH A WEAK FRONT MAY DROP TEMPS BACK A FEW DEGREES BY
WEDNESDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   72  46  67  44 /   0  10  70  60
FSM   70  49  66  50 /   0  10  80  80
MLC   71  51  66  45 /   0  20  80  60
BVO   69  37  68  41 /   0  10  60  60
FYV   67  41  64  44 /   0  10  70  80
BYV   68  42  64  43 /   0  10  60  80
MKO   71  46  67  43 /   0  10  80  70
MIO   68  40  67  41 /   0  10  60  70
F10   71  48  67  44 /   0  20  80  60
HHW   70  51  67  48 /  10  20  80  70

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...14
LONG TERM....18