000
FXUS64 KTSA 091645
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
1045 AM CST MON DEC 9 2013

...UPDATE...

.DISCUSSION...
LIGHT SNOW HAS DEVELOPED ALONG THE OKLAHOMA KANSAS BORDER THIS
MORNING AS EXPECTED. THE BEST LIFT AND THEREFORE GREATEST COVERAGE
AND GREATEST CHANCE FOR ACCUMULATION WILL OCCUR LATE THIS AFTERNOON
INTO THIS EVENING. HAVE REALIGNED POPS SLIGHTLY BASED ON LATEST
MODEL DATA. THE AREA OF THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY CONTINUES TO
APPEAR SUFFICIENT SO WILL LEAVE THAT UNCHANGED AT THIS TIME.
UPDATED PRODUCTS HAVE BEEN SENT.



&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 526 AM CST MON DEC 9 2013/

AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM.
MVFR CEILINGS AFFECTING SOME AREAS THIS MORNING AND THESE
CONDITIONS WILL BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD IN GENERAL THROUGH THE DAY.
BAND OF LIGHT SNOW WILL DEVELOP ACROSS NE OKLAHOMA AFTER 18Z WITH
AREAS CLOSER TO THE KANSAS BORDER MOST LIKELY IMPACTED WITH A FEW
HOURS OF IFR CONDITIONS. FOR RIGHT NOW TUL/RVS/XNA/FYV APPEAR TO
BE ON SOUTHERN FRINGE OF SNOW BAND BUT THIS COULD EASILY CHANGE.
SNOW SHOULD END AFTER 03Z WITH CLEARING SKIES OVER FAR NE OK BY
VERY LATE IN THE PERIOD.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 423 AM CST MON DEC 9 2013/

DISCUSSION...
A BAND OF SNOW IS EXPECTED TO SPREAD ACROSS PARTS OF NORTHEAST
OKLAHOMA AND POSSIBLY FAR NORTHWEST ARKANSAS THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. THE TIMING OF THIS SYSTEM LOOKS TO BE A BIT FASTER THAN
PREVIOUSLY EXPECTED SO WILL ISSUE A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR
THE KANSAS BORDER COUNTIES FROM NOON UNTIL MIDNIGHT WHERE THE
GREATEST POTENTIAL FOR AN INCH OR TWO OF SNOW WILL BE.

SKIES WILL CLEAR BEHIND THE SYSTEM LATER TONIGHT AND SOUTH TO
SOUTHWEST WINDS TUESDAY WILL BEGIN THE LONG AWAITED THAWING
PROCESS. HOWEVER...ANOTHER COLD FRONT WEDNESDAY WILL SLOW THIS
PROCESS DOWN SOME.

THE NEXT WEATHER SYSTEM WILL AFFECT THE AREA LATE THURSDAY NIGHT
AND FRIDAY AND WILL GENERALLY BE A RAIN MAKER. A BRIEF PERIOD OF
FREEZING RAIN MAY BE POSSIBLE AT THE ONSET OF THE EVENT BUT THIS
IS UNCERTAIN AT THIS POINT IN TIME.

TEMPERATURES WILL FINALLY WARM BACK TO NEAR NORMAL LEVELS OVER THE
WEEKEND. THE ECMWF WANTS TO DELIVER ANOTHER GLANCING BLOW OF COLD
AIR BY NEXT SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY BUT WE WILL HAVE TO WAIT AND
SEE ON THIS. OTHERWISE...IT LOOKS LIKE WE MAY BE LOOKING AT WELL
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES LATER NEXT WEEK.

STAYED CLOSE TO GUIDANCE TEMPERATURES THE NEXT COUPLE DAYS EXCEPT
DID NOT GO NEARLY AS COLD AS THE GFS MOS FOR LOWS TONIGHT.

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT TUESDAY FOR OKZ054-OKZ055-
     OKZ056-OKZ057-OKZ058.

AR...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...06
LONG TERM....30