Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Tulsa, OK

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000
FXUS64 KTSA 062341
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
641 PM CDT MON JUL 6 2015

.AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM/KROG.
WIDESPREAD CONVECTION CURRENTLY APPROACHING NE OK WILL CONTINUE
SLOWLY SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE EVENING...WITH A GRADUAL WEAKENING
TREND AFTER SUNSET. FLIGHT CONDITIONS ACROSS NE OK WILL BE
IMPACTED BY THE STORMS BEFORE THEY WEAKEN SUFFICIENTLY. LOWER
CEILINGS ARE EXPECTED MUCH OF TOMORROW ALONG AND NORTH OF THE
BOUNDARY...WITH MORE WIDESPREAD PRECIP COVERAGE EXPECTED JUST
BEYOND THIS FORECAST PERIOD.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 431 PM CDT MON JUL 6 2015/

DISCUSSION...
THIS AFTERNOON A WAVE WAS MOVING EAST SOUTHEAST OUT OF CENTRAL
CANADA ACROSS THE NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS TOWARD THE GREAT LAKES
REGION. THIS HAS ALLOWED A SURFACE COLD FRONT TO PUSH SOUTHEAST
FROM THE TEXAS OKLAHOMA PANHANDLES THROUGH CENTRAL KANSAS INTO
IOWA AND MINNESOTA. DAYTIME HEATING AND INSTABILITY ALONG/NEAR THE
COLD FRONT HAS AIDED IN WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO
DEVELOP. AHEAD OF THE FRONT...SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS HAD BEGUN TO
FORM ACROSS PARTS OF EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS THIS
AFTERNOON.

SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE IN COVERAGE THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING ACROSS THE CWA...AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING
COLD FRONT. A LIMITED SEVERE POTENTIAL WILL BE POSSIBLE INRESPONSE
TO LOW 70S DEWPOINTS AND DAYTIME HEATING. THE SCATTERED TO BROKEN
CLOUD COVER COULD HINDER SOME OF THE OVERALL SEVERE POTENTIAL
ALONG WITH WEAKER 0-6KM SHEAR. LOCALLY DAMAGING WINDS LOOK TO BE
THE MAIN THREAT WITHIN ANY THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT...THOUGH HAIL
COULD BE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE STRONGER STORM CORES.

OVERNIGHT TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY...
WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BECOME MORE OF A HEAVY
RAINFALL EVENT AS THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY MOVES INTO NORTHEAST
OKLAHOMA AND STALLS. THE HEAVY RAINFALL OVERNIGHT TONIGHT LOOKS TO
BE MAINLY ALONG AND NORTH OF INTERSTATE 44...WITH THE HIGHEST QPF
SIGNAL NEAR THE OKLAHOMA KANSAS BORDER. DURING THE DAY
TUESDAY...WIDESPREAD RAINFALL SHOULD SPREAD ACROSS NORTHEAST
OKLAHOMA AND FAR NORTHWEST ARKANSAS. PRECIP CHANCES LESSEN THE
FURTHER SOUTH...ACROSS SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA.

TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT...
WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE FORECAST TO REMAIN
COMMON OVER NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA INTO NORTHWEST ARKANSAS AS AN AREA
OF LOW PRESSURE/VORT MAX DEVELOPS TO THE SOUTHWEST AND MOVES
NORTHEAST ALONG THE STALLED FRONT INTO THE REGION. THIS WILL
CREATE A SECOND ROUND OF WIDESPREAD HEAVY RAINFALL AMOUNTS OVER
NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA INTO FAR NORTHWEST ARKANSAS. DEPENDING ON THE
EXACT LOCATION OF WHERE THIS LOW/VORT MAX SETS UP WILL DEPEND ON
THE LOCATION OF THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL AXIS. AT THIS
TIME...WIDESPREAD RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 3-5 INCHES ARE FORECAST WITH
LESSER AMOUNTS OF 2-4 INCHES ON THE SOUTHERN END OF THE WATCH FROM
TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT. LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS GREATER
THAN 5 INCHES...WITH A 10 PERCENT WORSE CASE OF LOCALLY NEAR 10
INCHES COULD BE POSSIBLE. ALL OF THIS RAINFALL WILL INCREASE THE
LIKELIHOOD OF FLASH FLOODING OVER NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA INTO FAR
NORTHWEST ARKANSAS. THUS...HAVE ADDED A FEW MORE COUNTIES ON THE
SOUTHERN END OF THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH IN NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND
ALSO ADDED IN FAR NORTHWEST ARKANSAS.

THURSDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND...
THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY SHOULD BEGIN TO LIFT NORTHWARD THURSDAY AND
OUT OF THE REGION BY THURSDAY NIGHT. A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE...MAINLY OVER NORTHEAST
OKLAHOMA AS WARM AIR ADVECTION INTERACTS WITH THE RETREATING
FRONTAL BOUNDARY. IN THE WAKE OF THE DEPARTING SYSTEM...SOUTH
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW IS FORECAST OVER THE WEEKEND AS A RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE SHIFTS FROM SOUTHEAST U.S. WESTWARD THROUGH THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS AND INTO THE SOUTHWEST U.S. THE COOLER TEMPERATURES
FORECAST WITHIN ALL THE RAIN TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...SHOULD BEGIN
A WARMING TREND BACK TOWARD THE SEASONAL AVERAGE BY FRIDAY AND
CONTINUE WARMING WITH HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS FOR THE WEEKEND.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   74  80  69  80 /  70  80  90  70
FSM   75  88  73  84 /  20  50  50  50
MLC   76  86  74  83 /  30  60  60  60
BVO   70  76  66  78 /  80  80  90  60
FYV   72  81  70  78 /  30  70  70  60
BYV   72  80  70  78 /  40  70  70  50
MKO   74  81  71  80 /  40  80  70  70
MIO   71  76  67  78 /  80  80  90  70
F10   75  81  71  80 /  40  80  80  70
HHW   76  91  75  88 /  10  40  40  30

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING FOR OKZ054>071.

AR...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING FOR ARZ001-002-010-
     011.

&&

$$

AVIATION...07


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