000
FXUS64 KTSA 292124
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
424 PM CDT TUE JUL 29 2014

.DISCUSSION...
CLOUD COVER HAS BEGUN TO INCREASE ACROSS THE CWA IN RESPONSE TO
AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE CURRENTLY MOVING THROUGH THE ROCKY
MOUNTAIN REGION. THIS WAVE WILL BECOME THE MAIN FOCUS FOR WEATHER
THROUGH THE SHORT TERM FORECAST AS IT APPROACHES THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS.

AN MCS IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ACROSS WESTERN OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN
KANSAS TONIGHT IN RESPONSE TO THE SHORTWAVE MOVING INTO THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS. AS THE MCS MOVES SOUTHEASTWARD...CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE LATE
THIS EVENING OVER NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND SPREAD INTO EASTERN
OKLAHOMA LATE TONIGHT. WILL CARRY POPS STARTING AT 03Z TONIGHT.
OVERNIGHT...GREATER PRECIP CHANCES AND HIGHER RAINFALL AMOUNTS
SHOULD REMAIN WEST OF THE CWA...ACROSS CENTRAL OKLAHOMA. DURING
THE DAY WEDNESDAY...THE MCS LOOKS TO MOVE MORE EASTERLY WITH
WIDESPREAD SHOWERS WITH POSSIBLE EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS THROUGHOUT
EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND ALSO NORTHWEST ARKANSAS. GREATEST POTENTIAL
LOOKS TO BE ACROSS NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA INTO EAST CENTRAL OKLAHOMA.

CLOUD COVER TONIGHT SHOULD KEEP TEMPS WARMER ACROSS THE CWA...AND
TEMPS DURING THE DAY WEDNESDAY ARE NOT EXPECTED TO WARM ALL THAT
MUCH WITH THE WIDESPREAD PRECIP. THUS...HIGH TEMPS IN THE 70S
SHOULD BE COMMON ACROSS THE REGION WEDNESDAY...WITH SOME
LOCATIONS OVER EAST CENTRAL OKLAHOMA POSSIBLY NOT GETTING OUT OF
THE 60S.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT...WIDESPREAD SHOWERS WITH POSSIBLE EMBEDDED
THUNDERSTORMS LOOK TO BEGIN TO PUSH EAST SOUTHEASTWARD AS THE
SHORTWAVE MOVES INTO THE REGION. SOUTH OF THE WAVE...WARM
ADVECTION AND A 20-40KT LLJ WILL ALLOW A CONTINUING OF WIDESPREAD
PRECIP AND POTENTIAL HEAVY RAINFALL. SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA INTO WEST
CENTRAL ARKANSAS LOOKS TO HAVE THE GREATEST POTENTIAL WEDNESDAY
NIGHT. WIDESPREAD RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 1 TO 3 INCHES WILL BE
POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT ACROSS MUCH OF THE
CWA...WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS POSSIBLE OVER SOME LOCATIONS
ACROSS EAST CENTRAL/SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA. FOR NOW WILL CONTINUE TO
HOLD OFF ON ANY FLOOD HEADLINES AS THE LONGER DURATION OF THE
PRECIP AND CURRENT 3 AND 6-HR FLASH FLOOD GUIDANCE IS IN THE 3-5
INCH RANGE ACROSS THE CWA.

CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL REMAIN
POSSIBLE THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY EVENING BEFORE THE UPPER LEVEL
SHORTWAVE TROF AXIS SHIFTS EASTWARD AND EXITS THE REGION.
ADDITIONAL PRECIP AMOUNTS THURSDAY LOOK TO BE LESS THAN A HALF
INCH FOR MOST LOCATIONS. TEMPS THURSDAY WILL CONTINUE TO BE BELOW
THE SEASONAL AVERAGE WITH HIGHS IN THE 70S TO LOWER 80S POSSIBLE.
TEMPS FRIDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND SHOULD BEGIN A SLOW WARMING TREND
AS RISING 500-MB HEIGHTS OCCUR OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. THE RIDGE
OF HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD REMAIN OUT WEST...THOUGH TEMPS BACK CLOSER
TO SEASONAL AVERAGE MAY BE POSSIBLE BY THE MIDDLE PART OF NEXT
WEEK.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   67  71  66  81 /  30  90  80  40
FSM   67  75  66  75 /  10  70  90  70
MLC   69  74  67  76 /  20  80  90  60
BVO   66  72  63  82 /  30  70  50  20
FYV   62  74  62  76 /  10  60  60  40
BYV   62  74  62  77 /  10  50  50  30
MKO   67  70  66  77 /  20  90  90  50
MIO   64  73  63  81 /  20  50  40  20
F10   69  70  67  77 /  40 100  90  50
HHW   69  77  68  79 /  10  50  80  60

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...18
LONG TERM....20