Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Tulsa, OK

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FXUS64 KTSA 210525

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
1125 PM CST Mon Nov 20 2017

VFR conditions are expected to prevail through the valid
period with mid and high level clouds streaming overhead.
A cold front will move through the area TAF sites Tuesday
morning into the afternoon shifting the winds around to
the north-northwest.


.PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 808 PM CST Mon Nov 20 2017/

No major changes are planned to the forecast this evening. The
main adjustment made was to sky grids to incorporate the high
cloud cover moving in from the northwest. Despite the fact that
southerly flow prevailed today, low level moisture continues to
lie well south of the Red River. Meanwhile, a potent shortwave
trough aloft will dive over the Upper Midwest/Great Lakes region
over the next 24 hours. A cold front, currently over ND/MT, will
slide quickly south and east over the Plains, and will sweep thru
our area on Tuesday.


PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 524 PM CST Mon Nov 20 2017/

VFR conditions are expected to prevail through the valid period
at all area TAF sites. A cold front is expected to move the area
Tuesday morning/afternoon with winds shifting around to the northwest
behind the front.

PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 320 PM CST Mon Nov 20 2017/

Dangerous fire weather conditions will continue into the evening
across much of northeast Oklahoma before winds subside. Just
enough south wind component overnight will keep temps milder
compared to last night. Next dry cold front expected to slide
south across the area during the day Tuesday, with little impact
other that shift to north winds followed by colder temperatures
for Tuesday night and Wednesday.

Latter part of the forecast will remain quiet as upper ridge
develops over the southwest U.S. and dry west-northwest flow
persists over the plains. Pleasant weather for Thanksgiving Day,
with stronger south winds by Friday possibly resulting in much
above normal temperatures. Yet another dry cold front should knock
temperatures back some by the weekend. Main message for the
foreseeable future will be accumulating precip deficits and
attendant fire weather concerns.




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