Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Tulsa, OK
FXUS64 KTSA 252342
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE Tulsa OK
542 PM CST WED NOV 25 2015
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM/KROG.
Ceiling heights will continue to fall overnight with MVFR conditions.
Strong/gusty south winds will also persist especially across Eastern
Oklahoma as low level jet strengthens. Although patchy light
drizzle/fog will be possible late tonight/Thu morning, heavier
rain will likely hold off until late Thu afternoon, primarily at
BVO and maybe as far south as TUL/RVS ahead of strong cold front.
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 334 PM CST WED NOV 25 2015/
Heavy rainfall and potential flash flooding continues to be the
main forecast concern, with a limited freezing rain/light icing
concern northwest of Tulsa. Moisture levels are near unheard of
values for this time of year, and as a strong but shallow cold
front drops south into the area late Thursday and Thursday
evening, the stage will be set for heavy rainfall.
The front will slow over the higher terrain of southeast Oklahoma
and northwest Arkansas early Friday, which will help to focus the
heaviest rainfall in this area. Additional rounds of rainfall will
continue into the weekend, with total rainfall amounts ranging
from around 3 inches in parts of northeast Oklahoma to 8 inches in
parts of southeast Oklahoma, with locally higher amounts
possible. The flash flood watch will continue as is, but may well
need to be extended in time across parts of the area, especially
down south. River flooding will also be a concern during this
Across parts of northeast Oklahoma, to the northwest of Tulsa,
temperatures will likely fall to near the freezing mark during
this event. Some light icing may occur in this area, with most of
the road impacts, if any, being on bridges and oevrpasses.
A few showers may continue into Monday as the upper level storm
system finally ejects northeast across the Plains. Drier but still
cool weather will then prevail as we head into the middle part of
Stayed close to guidance temperatures tonight and Thursday, with
the NAM12 temperatures preferred after that time due to that
model`s superior handling of shallow cold air.
OK...Flash Flood Watch from Thursday evening through Friday afternoon
AR...Flash Flood Watch from Thursday evening through Friday afternoon