Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Tulsa, OK

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000
FXUS64 KTSA 200916
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
316 AM CST THU NOV 20 2014

.DISCUSSION...
A WEAK SURFACE BOUNDARY WAS ANALYZED ACROSS NRN TX EARLY THIS
MORNING...WITH LIGHT ELY/NELY SFC FLOW AND A DRY AIRMASS IN PLACE
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. HIGHS TODAY WILL LIKELY BE JUST A BIT
COOLER THAN YESTERDAY...ALTHOUGH SE OK SHOULD SEE SIMILAR READINGS
AS THE AFOREMENTIONED BOUNDARY LIFTS N THIS AFTERNOON. RAPIDLY
IMPROVING LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE WILL RESULT IN SOME AREAS OF LIGHT
RAIN/SHOWERS LATER THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING...ESPECIALLY
SOUTH OF I40.

A STRONGER UPPER SYSTEM WILL LIFT FROM THE DESERT SW FRIDAY AND INTO
TX BY SATURDAY...WITH SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM CHANCES INCREASING FOR OUR
REGION SATURDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. FORECAST PW VALUES AT OR
ABOVE AN INCH (QUITE HIGH FOR THIS TIME OF THE YEAR) WILL SUPPORT
SOME LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN...ESPECIALLY ACROSS SE OK/ECNTRL OK/WRN AR
IN ZONE OF BEST UPPER DIFFLUENT FLOW. THE HEAVY RAIN AXIS WILL SHIFT
E OF THE REGION BY SUNDAY...ALTHOUGH WE MAY SEE SOME LINGERING
WRAPAROUND LIGHT PRECIPITATION SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT. FORECAST
GOING INTO NEXT WEEK IS LOOKING DRIER AND COOLER...WITH TEMPS
FALLING BACK TO NEAR OR SLIGHTLY BELOW SEASONAL AVERAGES.

ONCE AGAIN...THE ECMWF REMAINS CONSISTENT BRINGING A SHOT OF ARCTIC
AIR TO THE SRN PLAINS BY THANKSGIVING DAY. WITH COLD AIR IN
PLACE...THE UPPER SYSTEM SHOWN BY THE ECMWF COULD RESULT IN WINTER
PRECIPITATION ACROSS ERN OK/NW AR FRIDAY NIGHT/SATURDAY. THIS IS
STILL OVER A WEEK AWAY AND JUST ONE MODEL SOLUTION...SO STAY TUNED.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   55  42  57  52 /   0  30  40  60
FSM   57  43  57  48 /   0  30  50  60
MLC   60  50  63  55 /   0  30  40  70
BVO   53  36  56  48 /   0  20  40  50
FYV   53  38  54  48 /   0  30  50  50
BYV   51  34  52  46 /   0  20  50  50
MKO   55  42  58  50 /   0  30  40  60
MIO   52  35  54  49 /   0  20  50  50
F10   57  44  61  53 /   0  30  40  60
HHW   62  51  63  54 /  10  40  50  80

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...14
LONG TERM....18




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