Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Tulsa, OK

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000
FXUS64 KTSA 200547
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
1147 PM CST FRI DEC 19 2014

.AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM/KROG.
LIFR TO MVFR CEILINGS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN OVER NORTHWEST
ARKANSAS AND ALSO MUCH OF SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA OVERNIGHT AS A WAVE
EXITS THE REGION. PATCHY AREAS OF FOG OVER THESE LOCATIONS COULD
ALLOW VISIBILITIES TO FALL INTO THE LIFR TO IFR CATEGORIES EARLY
SATURDAY MORNING. ACROSS NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA...MVFR TO VFR
CONDITIONS SHOULD CONTINUE OVERNIGHT BEHIND THE EXITING WAVE.
DURING THE DAY SATURDAY...CONDITIONS LOOK TO LIFT TO MVFR ACROSS
THE REGION AND POSSIBLY BECOME SCT/BKN SATURDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING.


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 754 PM CST FRI DEC 19 2014/

DISCUSSION...

AREAS OF DRIZZLE HAVE SHOWN UP ON RADAR THIS EVENING...MOST LIKELY
DUE TO SOME WEAK LIFT FROM A PV MAX PASSING OVERHEAD ATTM. RECENT
TRENDS SUGGEST THAT THE DRIZZLE IS TAPERING OFF...HOWEVER SOME
PATCHY DRIZZLE WILL LIKELY REMAIN FOR A FEW MORE HOURS.
ALSO...PATCHY FOG IS OBSERVED...ESPECIALLY DOWN AT MCALESTER WHERE
VSBYS HAVE BEEN BELOW 1 STATUTE MILE SINCE THE LATE AFTERNOON.
WILL MAINTAIN PATCHY FOG AND DRIZZLE IN THE GRIDS OVER MUCH OF THE
AREA.

THERE IS OPTIMISM THAT THE SUN WILL ACTUALLY SHOW TOMORROW. THE
WESTERN EDGE OF THE STRATUS DECK IS SLOWLY MOVING IN OUR
DIRECTION...AS WESTERLY FLOW INCREASES ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE
SHORTWAVE TROUGH. THIS COULD BE A SIGN THAT THERE WILL BE ENOUGH
DOWNSLOPE FLOW TO ERODE THE STRATUS LAYER ON SATURDAY. WE SHALL
SEE. TO DATE...TULSA HAS ONLY SEEN 14% OF THE TOTAL POSSIBLE
SUNSHINE MINUTES TO THIS POINT IN THE MONTH OF DECEMBER. THAT`S A
LOT OF GREY DAYS SO FAR.

LACY


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   37  48  38  51 /   0   0   0  10
FSM   40  52  38  52 /  10   0   0  10
MLC   40  50  38  52 /  10   0  10  10
BVO   34  47  35  51 /   0   0   0  10
FYV   37  47  33  48 /  10   0   0  10
BYV   37  46  32  48 /  10   0   0  10
MKO   37  49  38  51 /  10   0   0  10
MIO   36  47  36  50 /  10   0   0  10
F10   38  48  38  51 /   0   0  10  10
HHW   42  51  38  52 /  10  10  10  10

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

AVIATION...20




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