Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Tulsa, OK

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000
FXUS64 KTSA 151119
AFDTSA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
619 AM CDT Sun Oct 15 2017

.AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM/KROG.
Conditions range from IFR across northwest Arkansas to VFR
across northeast Oklahoma this morning. Conditions are expected
to improve by mid-morning across western Arkansas as a cold front
continues to surge south and east of the area. VFR conditions are
expected at all are TAF sites by 18z if not earlier. VFR conditions
are then expected to prevail through the remainder of the valid period.


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 246 AM CDT Sun Oct 15 2017/

DISCUSSION...
Widespread showers with a few embedded thunderstorms continue
behind cold front that has pushed into southeast Oklahoma/northwest
Arkansas early this morning. Precipitation will likely shift south
of the area around mid morning with clearing skies. Gusty north
winds will likely continue into the afternoon hours before
decreasing around sunset.

Surface high pressure will build into the area tonight and with
light winds/clear skies, patchy frost is likely across portions of
northeast Oklahoma and northwest Arkansas. For now, opted to not
issue a frost advisory given the uncertainty of overall areal
coverage, however this will be re-evaluated on subsequent
forecast. A light frost will again be possible Monday night as
surface ridge axis settles over the region.

Fall conditions will continue through the early to middle part of
week with mild days and cool nights. Surface high begins to shift
east Tuesday into Wednesday with a slow warming trend into next
weekend. Precipitation chances will likely return by next Sunday
with the next cold front.

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...None.
AR...None.
&&

$$

AVIATION...10



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