Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Tulsa, OK

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000
FXUS64 KTSA 182333
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
533 PM CST THU DEC 18 2014

.AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM/KROG.
IFR/MVFR CEILINGS THIS EVENING ARE EXPECTED TO FALL BACK INTO THE
LIFR TO IFR CATEGORIES OVERNIGHT TONIGHT AND REMAIN OVER EASTERN
OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS FRIDAY.
AREAS OF IFR TO MVFR VISIBILITIES WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE ACROSS
THE REGION OVERNIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING. CONDITIONS LOOK TO
IMPROVE SOME FRIDAY AFTERNOON WITH CEILINGS POSSIBLY LIFTING BACK
TO MVFR WITH VFR VISIBILITIES.


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 311 PM CST THU DEC 18 2014/

DISCUSSION...
LOW CLOUDS/LOW LEVEL MOISTURE LOCKED IN ACROSS ALL OF THE REGION
THIS AFTERNOON. UPPER TROUGH AXIS CURRENTLY SLIDING THROUGH THE
MOUNTAIN WEST REGION WILL APPROACH THE SOUTH CENTRAL UNITED STATES
FRIDAY. HIGHEST QPF SIGNALS REMAIN SOUTH AND EAST OF THE AREA...SO
WILL CONTINUE WITH THE ONGOING THEME OF KEEPING HIGHEST POPS
ACROSS SE OK AND NW AR THROUGH TOMORROW EVENING. A LITTLE FASTER
OF THE SYSTEM PER LATEST GUIDANCE INDICATES A QUICKER END TO
PRECIP ON FRIDAY EVENING...SO IT DOES NOT LOOK LIKE A MENTION OF
MIXED PRECIP WILL BE REQUIRED ACROSS FAR NE OK/NW AR AS THE SYSTEM
DEPARTS. NEXT QUICK MOVING TROUGH APPROACHES SUNDAY..AND WILL
OFFER AT BEST LIMITED CHANCES FOR RAIN TO CLOSE OUT THE WEEKEND.
A STRONGER TROUGH IN NW FLOW ALOFT AND ASSOCIATED FRONTAL BOUNDARY
POISED TO INCREASE RAIN CHANCES SOME FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK. AT THIS
TIME...DRY WEATHER AND TEMPERATURES NEAR CLIMATOLOGICAL AVERAGES
ARE EXPECTED FOR THE XMAS HOLIDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   37  44  34  50 /  10  10  10  10
FSM   40  46  36  49 /  20  30  20  10
MLC   39  46  37  51 /  20  30  10  10
BVO   33  42  32  49 /  10  10  10  10
FYV   35  43  34  46 /  10  20  20  10
BYV   34  41  34  45 /  10  20  20  10
MKO   37  44  35  50 /  10  20  10  10
MIO   34  42  32  48 /  10  10  10   0
F10   39  44  36  51 /  20  20  10  10
HHW   41  48  39  52 /  20  50  20  10

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

AVIATION...20




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