Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Tulsa, OK

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772
FXUS64 KTSA 062342
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE Tulsa OK
542 PM CST SAT FEB 6 2016

.AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM/KROG.
VFR conditions are expected to prevail through the valid period
at all area TAF sites.


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 346 PM CST SAT FEB 6 2016/

DISCUSSION...
The weather will remain quiet through the entire forecast period
as dry northwesterly flow aloft prevails. A few snow flurries may
be possible Monday in far northwest Arkansas, but will not mention
at this time due to low probability of occurrence. Several frontal
boundaries will move through the area over the next week, but the
real cold air will remain well to our northeast through the
forecast period.

Fire danger will be a concern over the next week, especially
Sunday and Monday, with warm temperatures and shifting and
increasing winds Sunday, followed by strong and gusty northwest
winds Monday.

Stayed close to guidance temperatures the next couple days.
Temperatures from midweek on are a crapshoot as the timing of
frontal boundaries become impossible to pin down. The blended
solution is out of phase with most current model data by late in
the forecast period, owing to the unpredictability of the frontal
passages. It is likely that at least one day out of
Wednesday/Thursday will be unseasonably warm, but pinning it down
this far out is not possible.

&&

.TSA Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

AVIATION...10



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