Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Tulsa, OK

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FXUS64 KTSA 160522
AFDTSA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
1222 AM CDT Sat Mar 16 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(Through Tonight)
Issued at 200 PM CDT Fri Mar 15 2024

Low level stratus deck continues to erode and scatter out across
the area this afternoon while high clouds stream across the area
within the southwesterly flow aloft. Overall, a nice afternoon is
in store with temperatures near normal for this time of year, and
no precipitation expected, though breezy northerly winds will
make it feel a little cool out there. Surface high pressure will
settle over the region tonight with the ridge axis setting up near
the OK/KS border by tomorrow morning. This will allow winds to
calm and overnight lows to dip quite a bit cooler than the
previous few nights, especially where clouds completely clear the
area. Some locations across northeast Oklahoma and northwest
Arkansas could dip into the upper 30s. Some light fog could
develop, especially within the more sheltered valleys, late
tonight...but widespread fog formation is not anticipated at this
time.

Bowlan

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Saturday through Friday)
Issued at 200 PM CDT Fri Mar 15 2024

An upper low will continue to drift around the Southwest CONUS
over the better part of the next week, keeping rather benign
conditions over the forecast area during this time. Weak mid level
ridging will build over the region tomorrow, while a weak ripple
in the flow moves across northern Texas late tomorrow/tomorrow
night. The result will be increasing rain chances across the
southern half of the forecast area tomorrow afternoon into the
evening hours. Moisture will be pretty limited during this time
frame...so, while rain chances are likely, amounts are expected to
generally remain less than a tenth of an inch for any one
location. Enough instability could develop during the afternoon
to allow for an isolated thunderstorm or two, but chances are low
(<20%). Otherwise, another day with near normal temperatures and
mainly light winds are expected.

Amplified northerly flow aloft will then develop on Sunday as a
strong mid level trough drops southeastward out of central Canada.
this will help drive a stronger cold front into the region on
Sunday. bringing temperatures down below normal for a couple of
days, with a light freeze possible in some locations by Monday
morning...especially across northeast Oklahoma and northwest
Arkansas. This frontal passage should remain relatively dry,
though a few very light showers appear possible along and just
behind the front Sunday.

A quick warming trend will commence on Tuesday as southwest
surface winds return and mid level ridging builds back over the
region. elevated fire weather concerns could also return on
Tuesday with the warming temperatures, increasing winds, and min
RH values dropping into the 20-30% range. Guidance has better
agreement on the upper low finally being absorbed back into the
primary flow aloft and ejecting out over the Plains in the
Wednesday/Thursday timeframe. When the low finally comes out, this
will lead to increasing shower and thunderstorm chances by mid to
late week.

Bowlan

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1222 AM CDT Sat Mar 16 2024

A weak upper wave will increase shower chances across SE OK
tomorrow afternoon, however most coverage is expected to remain
south of the KMLC site, so will include a VCSH for much of the
afternoon and continuing through 04z. There may also be a period
of MVFR cigs at KMLC from 11z-18z when at that time cigs should
raise to VFR levels. Elsewhere at the remaining sites, TAF
elements will remain VFR through the period with cigs above 3000
feet.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   69  47  63  34 /   0   0   0   0
FSM   71  51  67  37 /  10  10   0   0
MLC   70  50  66  36 /  30  20   0   0
BVO   70  43  62  30 /   0   0   0   0
FYV   70  44  63  29 /   0  10   0   0
BYV   67  45  59  30 /   0   0   0   0
MKO   68  48  62  34 /  20  10   0   0
MIO   67  43  58  29 /   0   0   0   0
F10   68  49  63  35 /  20  10   0   0
HHW   69  53  67  40 /  60  40  10  10

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...None.
AR...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...04
LONG TERM....04
AVIATION...23


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