Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Tulsa, OK

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000
FXUS64 KTSA 290838
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
338 AM CDT MON SEP 29 2014

.DISCUSSION...

THERE WERE NO MAJOR SURPRISES IN THE DATA THIS MORNING. RIDGING
ALOFT DOWNSTREAM FROM A LARGE CLOSED LOW OVER THE WESTERN CONUS
WILL MAINTAIN ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPS AND DRY WEATHER THROUGH TUESDAY.
THE SYSTEM WILL OPEN UP AND EJECT ACROSS THE CENTRAL/NORTHERN
PLAINS ON TUESDAY AS A SYSTEM MOVES ONSHORE IN THE PAC NW. THIS
LEAD SYSTEM WILL FORCE A BOUNDARY DOWN TO NEAR THE OK/KS BORDER BY
EARLY WEDNESDAY...WHERE IT WILL STALL WHILE WE AWAIT THE ARRIVAL
OF THE UPSTREAM SYSTEM. STORMS MAY FIRE AS SOON AS LATE TUESDAY
ALONG THE DRYLINE OUT WEST AND ALONG THE BOUNDARY UP THRU CENTRAL
KS. THE REMNANTS OF THIS ACTIVITY MAY GRAZE PORTIONS OF THE
FORECAST AREA...MAINLY TO THE NORTH AND WEST OF TULSA TUESDAY
NIGHT. CHANCES FOR STORMS WILL BE LATE WEDNESDAY INTO
THURSDAY...AS STORMS FORM ALONG STALLING BOUNDARY OR PRE-FRONTAL
TROUGH AND GROW UPSCALE WHILE MOVING SOUTHEAST INTO OUR REGION.
THE NAM/GFS/ECMWF ALL SHOW THIS BASIC IDEA. THE BEST SEVERE
POTENTIAL WILL BE WITH THIS LATE WEDNESDAY ACTIVITY...DAMAGING
WINDS THE MAIN THREAT. THE SHEAR IS ONLY MARGINAL FOR
SUPERCELLS...SO MULTICELLS LOOK MORE LIKELY. THE COLD FRONT WILL
FINALLY SURGE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA ON THURSDAY AS THE VERY
PROGRESSIVE UPSTREAM SYSTEM DIVES DOWN INTO THE PLAINS. STORMS
WILL PROBABLY FIRE ALONG IT AS WELL...WITH LIMITED SEVERE
POTENTIAL.

THE FRONT WILL CLEAR THE FORECAST AREA THURSDAY NIGHT...LEAVING
FRIDAY AND THE WEEKEND TO FOLLOW ON A VERY PLEASANT NOTE. THE DRY
AND PLEASANT WEATHER WILL CONTINUE INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS NW FLOW
TRANSITIONS TO FLAT SHORTWAVE RIDGING ALOFT. TEMPS WILL MODERATE
RATHER QUICKLY TOWARD MIDWEEK DUE TO INCREASING DOWNSLOPE FLOW
OFF THE ROCKPILE.

LACY

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   87  64  87  68 /   0   0  10  30
FSM   86  62  86  66 /   0   0  10  10
MLC   87  63  87  68 /   0   0   0  10
BVO   86  58  86  63 /   0   0  10  50
FYV   83  56  82  60 /   0   0   0  10
BYV   83  58  83  62 /   0   0   0  10
MKO   86  61  85  66 /   0   0  10  20
MIO   84  61  85  64 /   0   0  10  20
F10   86  62  86  67 /   0   0   0  20
HHW   85  64  86  68 /   0   0   0  10

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

LONG TERM....30





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