Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Tulsa, OK

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000
FXUS64 KTSA 181746
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
1245 PM CDT THU SEP 18 2014

.AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM.
SCATTERED TO BROKEN MID/HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS WILL BE COMMON INTO THE
EVENING HOURS ACROSS EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS. AT
LEAST A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL ALSO
REMAIN THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS ACROSS THE REGION. BVO LOOKS
TO HAVE THE GREATER CHANCE OF REPORTING PRECIP AMONG THE TAF
SITES AND WILL CARRY VCSH. OVERNIGHT TONIGHT...SKIES SHOULD BEGIN
TO SCATTER OUT WITH POSSIBLE AREAS OF FOG DEVELOPING BY EARLY
MORNING FRIDAY. CONDITIONS SHOULD BEGIN TO LIFT BACK TO VFR TOWARD
THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD.


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1035 AM CDT THU SEP 18 2014/

..UPDATE...

DISCUSSION...
THE MAJORITY OF THE THUNDERSTORMS FROM EARLY THIS MORNING HAD
WEAKENED INTO SCATTERED SHOWERS ACROSS EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND
NORTHWEST ARKANSAS BY THE LATE MORNING HOURS. A FRONTAL BOUNDARY
POSITIONED ACROSS CENTRAL KANSAS INTERACTING WITH UPGLIDE WINDS
AND UPPER LEVEL NORTHWESTERLY FLOW HAS CONTINUED TO DEVELOP
SOUTHWARD MOVING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER SOUTHEAST KANSAS.
THE RAIN SHOWERS CURRENTLY OVER THE CWA LEFTOVER FROM THE EARLY
MORNING ACTIVITY SHOULD CONTINUE TO WEAKEN INTO THE AFTERNOON
HOURS...WHILE THE ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FROM
SOUTHEAST KANSAS SHOULD CONTINUE TO PUSH INTO THE CWA. THIS
ACTIVITY LOOKS TO REMAIN POSSIBLE INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS WITH
ANOTHER ROUND OF THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE OVER FAR SOUTHEAST
OKLAHOMA...WHERE THE AIRMASS HAS NOT BEEN WORKED OVER YET.
LEFTOVER OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES AND WARMER TEMPS NEAR THE RED RIVER
COULD DEVELOP ENOUGH INSTABILITY TO ALLOW FOR THE POTENTIAL FOR
SOME THUNDERSTORMS TO BECOME STRONG TO SEVERE. THE GREATER
POTENTIAL OF THIS OCCURRING LOOKS TO BE JUST WEST OF THE CWA OVER
SOUTH CENTRAL OKLAHOMA.

WIDESPREAD CLOUD COVER OVER THE REGION COMBINED WITH ONGOING
PRECIP HAS KEPT TEMPS FROM WARMING MUCH OVER NORTHEAST/EAST
CENTRAL OKLAHOMA AND ALSO NORTHWEST ARKANSAS. INDICATIONS ARE THAT
THE CLOUD COVER COULD TRY TO BREAK UP SOME THIS AFTERNOON ALLOWING
TEMPS TO WARM INTO THE 70S/80S ACROSS THE NORTH...WITH WARMER
TEMPS ACROSS SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA. MORNING UPDATE WILL BE TO ADJUST
POPS/WX/TEMPS BASED ON THE MENTIONED ABOVE AND ALSO TWEAKED
SKY/WIND GRIDS AS WELL BASED ON LATEST TRENDS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   69  88  71  86 /  10  10  10  40
FSM   67  86  69  89 /  10  10  10  20
MLC   68  87  69  88 /  10  10  10  20
BVO   67  88  67  85 /  10  10  10  60
FYV   63  83  65  85 /  10  10  10  20
BYV   62  81  64  85 /  10  10  10  20
MKO   68  86  68  87 /  10  10  10  30
MIO   67  86  68  85 /  10  10  10  40
F10   69  86  69  88 /  10  10  10  30
HHW   68  87  68  90 /  10  10  10  10

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

AVIATION...20





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