Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Tulsa, OK
FXUS64 KTSA 051106
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
606 AM CDT MON OCT 5 2015
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM/KROG.
For the 12 Z TAFS, IFR/MVFR ceilings currently across Northeast
OKlahoma and Northwest Arkansas will prevail early this morning.
Ceilings will slowly lift during the morning, with all sites
eventually becoming VFR for the remainder of the forecast period.
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 401 AM CDT MON OCT 5 2015/
Another pleasant autumn day will occur today, albeit with quite a
bit more cloud cover than we have seen in recent days. A few
sprinkles could even occur later this afternoon and evening across
mainly northeast Oklahoma, but will not mention in the forecast at
A warming trend will occur Tuesday through Thursday, with
afternoon high temperatures climbing into the 80s everywhere by
Wednesday and Thursday. A cold front will sweep across the area
Thursday night and Friday accompanied by scattered showers and
thunderstorms. Overall, the models have backed off on the coverage
and intensity of the rainfall with the front.
The models have finally come into agreement with the previous
ECMWF solution on the future evolution of the southwest upper low.
They all suggest that this system will cut off well to our
southwest and retrograde over the weekend. Thus, this system will
be a non-factor for us and have removed pops beyond Friday.
By this weekend into early next week, an upper ridge will be
building over the southern Plains, and downslope flow will develop
in the low levels. This solution is supported by all available
models and the pattern favors much above normal temperatures
developing late this weekend into early next week. The blended
solution has not caught onto this yet, so have raised temperatures
to near the very similar GFS and ECMWF MOS solutions. Some 90
degree readings appear likely by Columbus Day.
Stayed close to guidance temperatures the next couple days.