Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Charleston, WV

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FXUS61 KRLX 132025
AFDRLX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Charleston WV
325 PM EST Wed Dec 13 2017

.SYNOPSIS...
Snow showers mainly across the northern portion of the area
tonight into Thursday morning.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
As of 220 PM Wednesday...

Clipper system moves across north of the area tonight and exits
tomorrow morning. Moisture is limited initially and this will
limit snow accumulations. The usual upslope areas of the Eastern
mountains may see 1-3 inches, elsewhere little or no
accumulations. Wind chills will be close to criteria but will
hold off for now. System exits quickly tomorrow and should see
improvement from west to east throughout the day.

Cold high pressure builds into the area Thursday into Thursday
night. Another clipper system will pass by well to our north
Friday into Friday night. This will limit any precipitation to
our northern tier zones and our Eastern mountain upslope areas.
Elsewhere should be mainly dry.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
As of 245 PM Wednesday...

Weak high pressure builds into the area Thursday night ahead of
yet another clipper system. This time, the parent low stays up
across the Great Lakes with only a dragging weak cold front
behind. Behind well south of favorable lake-enhanced low-level
moisture transport, only a slight chance of snow is advertised
across the northern counties with a low chance across the
mountains given a small component of upslope enhancement.
Modest warm air advection ahead of the front bump afternoon
temperatures across the lowlands above freezing after a cold
night in the teens and 20`s. Behind the front, winds turn
westerly as opposed to northwesterly, making cold air advection
into the area negligible - setting up a slightly warmer Friday
night/Saturday morning with lows in the mid-20`s in the lowlands
and mid-teens to around 20 F in the mountains.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
As of 300 PM Wednesday...

Weak high pressure builds again behind the short term period`s
clipper system Saturday. Winds near the surface turn
southwesterly beginning Saturday morning, warm advecting through
the weekend with temperatures reaching into the 30`s/40`s on
Saturday and into the 40`s/upper 40`s my Sunday. Models agree on
a warm front lifting up through the area Sunday accompanied by
scattered rain showers and perhaps a snow/mix upon onset during
the morning.

The associated cold front moves through by Monday night. Model
discrepancies are aplenty beyond this point - from the surface
through the upper-levels. The progression of a Rockies trough
across the CONUS will dictate sensible conditions through the
rest of the period. So, went for a general blend beyond this
point with a notable period of possible upslope precipitation
during Tuesday.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
As of 950 AM Wednesday...

VFR conditions will continue through this evening, but clouds
will be on the increase once again evening as clipper system
will cross to our north tonight into Thursday morning. Mountains
will be most likely to see some MVFR/IFR snow with this weak
system and generally MVFR possible elsewhere through early
Thursday morning.

Conditions improve from west to east as system exits the area
Thursday during the day.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: High to Medium.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: Timing of ceilings and snow showers
tonight may vary.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

UTC 1HRLY       18   19   20   21   22   23   00   01   02   03   04   05
EST 1HRLY       13   14   15   16   17   18   19   20   21   22   23   00
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    M    H    H    H    M    H    H    H    M    H    L
PKB CONSISTENCY  M    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    L
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    M    M    M    L    H    H    H    H    M    L    L

AFTER 18Z THURSDAY...
Another round of snow is expected across the northern portion of
the area on Friday and Friday night, with IFR conditions
possible in heavier snow showers.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...None.
OH...None.
KY...None.
VA...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JS/MC
NEAR TERM...JS
SHORT TERM...MC
LONG TERM...MC
AVIATION...JS



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