Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Charleston, WV

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FXUS61 KRLX 181947
AFDRLX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Charleston WV
247 PM EST Sun Nov 18 2018

.SYNOPSIS...
Cold front arrive tonight through Monday night. Remaining cool
through mid week, but modest warming and dry for the end of the
week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
As of 130 PM Sunday...

Cold front will sag into southeast Ohio tonight with light
rain developing along and behind the front. Initially the
coverage of rain will be scant, but should expand by morning as
forcing for ascent increases on the approach of the s/w trof.
Low stratus and visibility will also develop along and
especially behind the baroclinic zone. Precip type should
remain rain as model soundings indicate just enough warmth near
the surface.

The front makes does not make much more inroad into the area,
hanging up for a time across the western and far northern
lowland counties. Meanwhile, a wave of low pressure will
develop along the boundary across western Kentucky and track
into the area during the day. Light rain, low clouds, poor
visibility will continue along and behind the front, making for
a cold and yucky beginning to the work week. It will be a
different story south of the front, where mild conditions and an
overall lack of rain will prevail.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
As of 240 PM Sunday...

A surface front will be located across the Mid-Ohio Valley
extending into northern WV Monday night with batches of light
shower activity along it. The front slides southeastward across
the WV mountains through Tuesday morning followed by a surge of cold
air, driven by a shortwave rotating through a mean trough
extending down the whole of eastern North America. Rain showers
will eventually transition to a rain/snow mix in during the
morning across higher elevations, before transitioning again to
drizzle as crystal growth is lost due to an influx of dry air
aloft. Patchy freezing drizzle is possible along ridgelines
Tuesday afternoon, though with warm antecedent temperatures and
waning moisture impacts would be minimal. A consensus blend of
models supports ice accumulations, but chose conservative
amounts given uncertainty at this stage. Any snowfall
accumulations would be minimal as well with only the highest
ridges accumulating less than 1".

Meanwhile a second, drier surface cold front follows on its heels,
located near the Ohio River by early Tuesday afternoon, driven by
the aforementioned N.A. trough axis rotating through. The front ends
up driving much of the moisture out with precipitation chances
finally waning in the mountains that evening.

Due to the continued influx of cold dry air, Wednesday morning is
forecast to be the coolest of the period. Expect lowlands to dip to
near 30 and higher elevations/areas along the northern periphery
extending from northern WV into eastern OH to dip into the mid-20`s.
This is around 5-10 degrees cooler than average. Southwesterly winds
will ease temperatures into the upper 40`s in the lowlands
Wednesday, but this could be blunted by mid-day cloud cover.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
As of 245 PM Sunday...

Strengthening high pressure over the Great Lakes region results
in a northerly to northeasterly turn to local winds, bringing
another influx of cold temperatures Wednesday night into
Thursday morning. A surface front is evident in multiple models,
but it`s again expected to be mostly dry with weak broad-scale
forcing. At the very least, the front will reinforce cold
temperatures for another cold morning in the 20`s and low 30`s.

Strong high pressure expands into the Northeast and down into the
Mid-Atlantic Thursday night, setting up gradient driven SE winds
across the spine of the Appalachian and thus a warming downslope
wind into the western lowlands by Friday morning. This combined with
brief ridging and its associated synoptic-scale warm advection leads
to a noticeably warmer Friday with high temperatures in the 40`s to
the mid-50`s, quite a bit closer to average than the preceding week.

High clouds begin to stream in Friday afternoon into the evening,
associated with the next trough traversing the central latitudes of
the CONUS. This far out, long-range models do differ on the nature
of surface features. Namely, the GFS paints a progressive wave with
a sooner arrival time and a less organized surface system versus the
European solution which amplifies the system in the lee of the
Rockies, somewhat slowing it, but allowing the surface low to deepen
further over the lower Mississippi Valley. The Canadian, somewhere
in the middle. Regardless, the warming/ moistening trend continues
into Saturday with rain likely to spread from SW to NE Friday night
into early Saturday, perhaps later in the day Saturday with slower
solutions. It is worth noting that WPC seems to support the more
amplified (slower) solution with numerous ensemble members trending
in that direction.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
As of 135 PM Sunday...

A cold front will sag into southeast Ohio tonight, with light
rain developing along and behind the front. In addition, low
CIGs and VSBY will be noted, with MVFR conditions deteriorating into
IFR/LIFR. This will move into PKB generally after 05Z...10Z for
CKB...and by 12Z at HTS. The front will likely become stationary on
Monday with IFR/LIFR conditions in rain continuing at PKB, CKB, and
perhaps HTS (at least for a time). The remaining terminals should
remain south of the front where VFR conditions in dry wx will
prevail.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: Medium.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: Timing of precipitation and associated
restrictions tonight may vary from forecast. The front may make
it to CRW/EKN with IFR conditions Monday.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

UTC 1HRLY       18   19   20   21   22   23   00   01   02   03   04   05
EST 1HRLY       13   14   15   16   17   18   19   20   21   22   23   00
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M    M    M    L
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M    M    M    H

AFTER 18Z MONDAY...
IFR may occur in areas of rain Monday night.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...None.
OH...None.
KY...None.
VA...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...30/MC
NEAR TERM...30
SHORT TERM...MC
LONG TERM...MC
AVIATION...30



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