Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Charleston, WV

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FXUS61 KRLX 261410
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Charleston WV
1010 AM EDT Tue Mar 26 2019

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure, with very dry air, builds in through Thursday.
Another high pressure by the end of week. Next system arrives
Saturday and Saturday night.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 1010 AM Tuesday...

Decreased dew points fairly significantly through the period
with very dry air in place across most of the forecast area.
Also took several degrees off overnight lows going on the low
side of most guidance, anticipating good radiational cooling.

As of 344 AM Tuesday...

Surface analysis reveals the center of an expansive surface high is
positioned in southern MN and will gradually drift to the east
across lower Michigan by the afternoon. This places our region in a
light NNE flow, keeping conditions cool and dry through the day. The
drier air will take slightly longer to erode the lingering clouds in
the mountains as low level moisture gets trapped underneath a
subsidence inversion aloft. However, clear conditions are expected
by the afternoon as the very dry airmass continues to influence the
region. Expecting high temperatures to be in the low to mid 50s
across the lowlands and upper 30s/low 40s in the mountains - about 5
degrees below normal.

The surface high will pass to the north of the region tonight,
setting the stage for a favorable radiational cooling night.
Temperatures will dip down to the mid 20s across southeast OH and
northern portions of the region, while areas along and south of
Interstate 64 will be slightly milder near 30F.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
As of 430 AM Tuesday...

High pressure system will continue to provide dry weather
Wednesday through Thursday. As the high pressure exits east of
the Appalachians, winds will become south southwest allowing for
a warming trend in temperatures through the period.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
As of 430 AM Tuesday...

A warm front develops under south to southwest flow to bring
warmer and juicy airmass to the area. Expect some rain showers
for northern portions of the area Thursday night through Friday
night.

An associated cold front crosses Saturday night, with additional
showers and possibly thunderstorms along and ahead of the
front. Model consensus have trended colder behind the cold
front. This will allow for some snow on Sunday mainly higher
elevations. Confidence runs low with this system.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
As of 650 AM Tuesday...

High pressure north of the region will continue to bring drier
air into the area, which will help to erode the low clouds
across the eastern half of the region. Skies are already clear
across western terminals with VFR conditions, and clouds will
continue to clear from northwest to southeast through the
morning across the rest of the area. Expecting MVFR cigs to
linger at EKN through 15Z and IFR/LIFR conditions at BKW to
linger slightly longer with periods of mist and vsby
restrictions.

By the afternoon, skies will clear across the entire region as
drier air continues to push in. Thus, VFR conditions are
expected at all terminals this afternoon and will continue
through the end of the TAF period.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: Medium this morning, and high this
afternoon.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: Timing of category changes this morning may
vary. Greatest uncertainty is the duration of IFR at BKW this
morning.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

UTC 1HRLY       12   13   14   15   16   17   18   19   20   21   22   23
EDT 1HRLY       08   09   10   11   12   13   14   15   16   17   18   19
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  L    L    M    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H

AFTER 12Z WEDNESDAY...
IFR in rain associated with a cold front may reach the Ohio River
by late Saturday.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...None.
OH...None.
KY...None.
VA...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...ARJ/RG
NEAR TERM...MZ/RG
SHORT TERM...ARJ
LONG TERM...ARJ
AVIATION...RG


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