Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Charleston, WV

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FXUS61 KRLX 131815
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Charleston WV
215 PM EDT Sun Oct 13 2019

.SYNOPSIS...
Dry cold front early Monday, followed by high pressure. Next
cold front crosses midweek.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
As of 145 PM Sunday...

Surface high pressure will gradually shift east of the area
tonight. Temperatures will drop off quickly this evening amid a
clear sky. However, boundary layer winds will be on the increase
with 20-25 kts at H925 progged overnight. This should help to
mitigate frost except in the most protected hollers. While
temperatures may drop into the low to mid 30s across the
Tygart/Greenbrier Valleys, dense fog should negate frost
formation for the most part. Speaking of fog, thinking with
boundary layer winds increasing overnight, dense river valley
fog will be limited to aforementioned mountain valleys and
across deeper river valleys in the Coal Fields.

Weak CAA arrives Monday behind a dry surface front with just
some afternoon cumulus across northern counties. Temperatures
will top out near seasonal levels.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
As of 215 PM Sunday...

High pressure slides off to the NE Monday night and Tuesday.
Attention then turns to a low pressure system moving through the
Great Lakes, with a cold front extending south into the lower Ohio
River Valley. Ahead of this system, moisture will be on the increase
late Tuesday into Tuesday night, with relatively mild temperatures
under southerly flow. Have POPs increasing Tuesday night. The cold
front will push through Wednesday morning, with an area of showers.
Could even get a rumble of thunder or two. Expect much colder air to
surge in behind the front, with a steady or even non-diurnal
temperature curve and gusty NW winds expected.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
As of 215 PM Sunday...

Gusty NW flow and fairly strong cold air advection ongoing to
start the period with 850mb temps dropping below 0C. This could
be cold enough for snow flakes mixing in across the northern
mountain ridges, but moisture depth could limit this. For now,
did include some snow mixing in Wednesday night. High pressure
moves in Thursday into Thursday night leading to frost/freeze
conditions in spots by Friday morning. An upper ridge crosses
Friday into Saturday. This should give a warming trend headed
into the weekend.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
As of 200 PM Sunday...

VFR forecast through the TAF period, save for some overnight
VLIFR fog at EKN. Boundary layer winds pick up overnight to near
25 kts, helping to confine dense fog to the mountain valleys and deeper
river valleys across southern WV.

A dry surface front crosses early Monday morning with a subtle
wind shift to a more westerly direction and increasing to near
10 kts in the afternoon with gusts 15 to 20 kts across northern
and mountain terminals.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: High.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: IFR or worse fog may develop at CRW/CKB
overnight tonight.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

UTC 1HRLY       18   19   20   21   22   23   00   01   02   03   04   05
EDT 1HRLY       14   15   16   17   18   19   20   21   22   23   00   01
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M    L
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H

AFTER 18Z MONDAY...
IFR valley fog possible Tuesday morning.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...None.
OH...None.
KY...None.
VA...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MZ/30
NEAR TERM...30
SHORT TERM...MZ
LONG TERM...MZ
AVIATION...30


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