Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Charleston, WV

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FXUS61 KRLX 230522
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Charleston WV
122 AM EDT Wed Jun 23 2021

.SYNOPSIS...
Dry with high pressure through Friday. Wet weather returns for
the weekend.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 120 AM Wednesday...

With high pressure overhead, clear skies, and light winds, already
seeing valley fog starting to spread out of the mountains valleys at
this hour. Should see any fog that develops overnight dissipate by 8
AM this morning. After a cool start this morning highs in the lower
elevations rise into the mid 70s with 60s in the mountains by this
afternoon.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
As of 215 PM Tuesday...

High pressure will provide dry, and gradually warming/increasing
humidity during the period.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
As of 1155 AM Tuesday...

Much of the precipitation should hold off across the area on
Friday, but it will be hot and humid, with deepening southerly
flow across the area, out ahead of an upper shortwave and
surface low that will move into the Great Lakes region. Area
will remain in an unstable airmass over the weekend, as upper
trough continues to remain to the west, with periods of showers
and thunderstorms due to heating and from several waves of low
pressure that will move northeast along a frontal boundary
positioned to our west.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
As of 120 AM Wednesday...

With high pressure overhead, clear skies, and light winds, already
seeing valley fog starting to spread out of the mountains valleys at
this hour. Should see at least patchy morning fog near all terminals
except BKW and EKN/CKB/PKB/CRW likely dip to below IFR for a few
hours prior to daybreak.

Once morning fog mixes around 12Z, mainly clear skies are expected
through the period with light and variable winds.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: Medium.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: Timing, duration, and coverage of fog
overnight could vary from forecast.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

DATE                                             WED 06/23/21
UTC 1HRLY       03   04   05   06   07   08   09   10   11   12   13   14
EDT 1HRLY       23   00   01   02   03   04   05   06   07   08   09   10
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    M    M    L    L    M    M    L    H    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    L    L    L    L    L    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    M    M    M    M    M    M    L    H    H
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    L    L    L    L    L    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    M    L    M    M    M    L    L    H    H

AFTER 06Z THURSDAY...
No widespread IFR currently expected.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...None.
OH...None.
KY...None.
VA...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...ARJ/JP
NEAR TERM...JP
SHORT TERM...SL
LONG TERM...SL
AVIATION...JP


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