Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Charleston, WV

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FXUS61 KRLX 081825
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Charleston WV
125 PM EST Sun Dec 8 2019

.SYNOPSIS...
Rain develops overnight and lingers Monday. A strong cold front
crosses Tuesday. Sharply cold air and snow showers for
Wednesday. Dry but cold on Thursday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
As of 110 PM Sunday...

Rain will overspread the area overnight as moisture advection
and isentropic lift increase amid a strengthening low level jet.
There may be a touch of freezing rain across the upper
Greenbrier Valley as the precipitation begins in the predawn
hours, but strength and depth of warm nose should mitigate any
impacts.

Axis of better forcing shifts north during the day Monday as
the right front quadrant of the upper jet moves into the area
and southeast low level flow increases ahead of the approaching
surface baroclinic zone. This should provide for a lull in the
rain east and especially south of the OH River as some drier air
in the low level advects in the afternoon. Winds may become
quite gusty in the afternoon as the low level jet remains
strong, near 50kts. The magnitude of the gusts will ultimately
depend on how much of an inversion remains with models
suggesting it generally holds. It will be quite mild as
temperatures will make a run toward 60 degrees in parts of the
WV Lowlands.

Rainfall amounts near one inch are well agreed upon across
portions of southeast OH and northwestern WV by Monday
afternoon.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
As of 123 PM Sunday...

Precipitation continues through the area Monday night and the models
show agreement with the cold front arriving to the area early
Tuesday morning. The front should be through the area by Tuesday
night leading to rain transitioning into snow overnight Tuesday into
Wednesday morning. Temperatures on Wednesday will be colder after
the passage of the front. Precipitation appears to leave the area
Wednesday afternoon with some upslope snow possible as the system
moves out.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
As of 123 PM Sunday...

In general, the models show agreement with the high pressure system
entering the area Thursday morning, bringing dry and cold weather.
Temperatures will warm back to more seasonable temperatures on
Friday for the weekend.

The models are showing decent agreement with the placement of the
system in the southwest on Friday. The Canadian is showing a slower
progression of the system as it moves to the east than the other
models, but it does have a similar pattern overall. The models
appear to agree that this system will affect the area, however, the
possible timing of precipitation associated with this system does
differ a fair amount between models. The GFS shows an earlier onset
around Friday morning while the Euro does not have the system
affecting the area until late Friday night/early Saturday morning.
The Canadian shows precipitation occurring in the area Saturday
morning, which is likely due to its slower progression of the
system. The GFS also shows a low pressure system moving through on
Saturday, which is not shown as prominently in the other models at
the end of this period.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
As of 115 PM Sunday...

VFR conditions will be prevalent thru 06Z as clouds gradually
lower this evening. CIGs will drop into general MVFR along a
warm front as rain overspreads the area. Brief reductions into
IFR VSBY/CIGs are possible Monday morning. CRW/EKN/CKB may
escape the low CIGs given strengthening H925 downsloping flow.
Improving conditions will arrive from south to north by
afternoon with general VFR expected, though some showers may
still be around.

South to southeast surface flow will will remain light under
strong inversion tonight, except at BKW where gusts to 20 kts
are expected. Given the strength of the low level jet atop of
the mixing layer, LLWS was inserted in the TAFs for non mountain
terminals thru about 14Z. Thereafter, enough mixing in the
boundary layer should end the threat of wind shear.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: High.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: None.
EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

UTC 1HRLY       18   19   20   21   22   23   00   01   02   03   04   05
EST 1HRLY       13   14   15   16   17   18   19   20   21   22   23   00
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H

AFTER 18Z MONDAY...
IFR expected Tuesday in rain. IFR possible Tuesday night and
Wednesday in snow showers, most likely in the mountains.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...None.
OH...None.
KY...None.
VA...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...30/CG
NEAR TERM...30
SHORT TERM...CG
LONG TERM...CG
AVIATION...30


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