Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Charleston, WV

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FXUS61 KRLX 090714
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Charleston WV
214 AM EST Tue Mar 9 2021

.SYNOPSIS...
Dry high pressure through the middle of the week as the warming
trend continues. Next frontal system late this week. Active
weather continues into the weekend.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 210 AM Tuesday...

Another day without any appreciable dewpoint advection into the
region, and very dry air available to be mixed down with heating
during the day. The warming trend continues, so RH values remain
low again as the area continues to dry out. Fire danger the main
player once again today. Taking afternoon dewpoints down well
below guidance numbers, especially over the southern zones. Dry
air allows the temperatures to drop again tonight in clear sky
decoupling, especially in sheltered valleys/hollows. The
temperature drops Tuesday evening could be very quick, as
observed by EKN Monday evening dropping around 16F in one hour.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
As of 200 PM Monday...

High pressure will continue to yield dry conditions through the
majority of the short term amid warming temperatures. Clouds
return in earnest on Wednesday as low level moisture rides in
from the ArkLaTex region. Surface frontal boundary slowly
progresses into the Ohio Valley after midweek, shoving the
expansive high off the eastern seaboard. A few showers may
encroach on our southeast Ohio Counties by Thursday afternoon
ahead of the front, but the greater potential moves in for the
conclusion of the period.

Aforementioned warming trend will allow for afternoon highs to
reach the 70 degree mark along the I-79 corridor by Thursday.
Morning lows will also rise through the week, dropping down to
only the 40s/low 50s overnight Wednesday into Thursday morning.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
As of 200 PM Monday...

Cold front will continue to creep at a snails pace into the
Central Appalachians heading into the work week and most likely
stalling into the weekend. This feature will reintroduce rain
into the forecast around the late Thursday night to Friday
morning timeframe pending location. Confidence lowers by the
weekend in regard to the front`s positioning and accumulation
projection, especially with the wide arrangement in model
guidance. Where this front ultimately stalls will have impacts
on what happens within the forecast area this weekend, but
rainfall totals of half an inch to an inch will not be out of
the question.

A cooling trend ensues in the wake of the eventual frontal
passage, which may allow for showers to switch over to a mix in
portions of the Ohio River Valley up into the northern West
Virginia mountains overnight Saturday. Highs return closer to
normal after the FROPA going into the weekend.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
As of 1225 AM Tuesday...

With the exception of CKB through 12-15Z, high clouds only
today in VFR conditions as high pressure continues to dominate.
Winds less than 12kts out of the west at the surface.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: High.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: None.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

DATE                                   TUE 03/09/21
UTC 1HRLY       06   07   08   09   10   11   12   13   14   15   16   17
EST 1HRLY       01   02   03   04   05   06   07   08   09   10   11   12
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H

AFTER 06Z WEDNESDAY...
No widespread IFR conditions expected at this time.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Fuel stick moisture down considerably today in the 5-6 percent
range for much of the area. Dewpoints drop hard again in the
afternoon in the southern mountains with peak heating, and the
temperatures across the region continue to increase. RH values
remain very low around 15-30 percent in the afternoon, but
winds should stay in the 6-12mph range, and below 15mph.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...None.
OH...None.
KY...None.
VA...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...26/JZ
NEAR TERM...26
SHORT TERM...MEK
LONG TERM...MEK
AVIATION...26

FIRE WEATHER...26


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