Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Charleston, WV

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FXUS61 KRLX 181040
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Charleston WV
640 AM EDT Tue Jun 18 2019

.SYNOPSIS...
Another day of showers and storms. Zonal flow aloft through
Wednesday night. Vigorous cold front Thursday. Brief drying
for the end of the week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 640 AM Tuesday...

Raised POPs this morning per radar trends. Otherwise, will be
tracking line of more intense showers/storms traversing thru the
TN Valley currently. This is timed to reach southern counties
midday to early afternoon should it hold together.

As of 230 AM Tuesday...

Showers with embedded thunder continue along a southwest-
northeast axis along the OH River. Little progress eastward with
with the LLJ essentially aligned to the mean flow. This near
unidirectional profile will continue to support training of
individual cells over the next few hrs as corfidi vectors
remain a bit weak. Having said that, overall rainfall rates
continue the slow downward trend with cloud tops overall warming.

Models continue to show an uptick in intensity in the showers
from the west this morning as the overall bends into the
central Lowlands and into the northern mountains. Not sure how
high the flash flood threat will be with this this morning,
especially if the area remains void of convection. The s/w trof
across the lower OH Valley will approach the area as the day
progresses, though becoming sheared out. CAMs indicate a
decrease in coverage in the afternoon, becoming more closely
tied to the lingering front draped across central OH and along
the mountains. Low stratus will be stubborn to lift and scatter
which will keep temperatures and instability down in the
afternoon. I have lowered POPs a bit this afternoon, though
still expecting widely scattered showers and storms outside of
the areas mentioned.

Isolated showers and perhaps a rumble of thunder this evening,
otherwise expect areas of dense valley fog to develop...especially
in areas where partial clearing occurs.

I am keeping the watch up given the antecedent wet conditions
and until the s/w trof can pass.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
As of 305 AM Tuesday...

PAttern change coming in the short term as a seasonally strong
low pressure system winds up over the mid Mississippi Valley
and drives a surface low into the southern Great Lakes. Some of
the models take the surface low down into the lower 990s
millibars, with a well defined cold front in the thermal, wind,
and pressure fields. As of right now, the NAM has this as an
early Thursday event. Until then, the current pattern with waves
of convection will continue, but the concentration could shift
more towards the southern CWA. No real changes to the
characteristics of that atmosphere while in the warm sector.

Conditions dry out Thursday night.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
As of 305 Tuesday...

The drier and cooler atmospheric changes in the wake of the
short term period cold front will be relatively short lived.
Looking for a warm front and a return to the more tropical
airmass this weekend as the upper level pattern remains active,
and POPs increase again. Temperatures should oscillate near
normal, dependent on rain, cloud cover, and seasonal 500mb
heights.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
As of 640 AM Tuesday...

Areas of MVFR low stratus will continue to develop within axis
of showers across the area this morning. Some drops in bases to
IFR are anticipated at HTS/PKB this morning with lower
confidence elsewhere. Some brief reductions in visibility are
possible with any passing robust shower.

A decrease in shower coverage is anticipated late this
afternoon which will allow CIGs to lift, but likely remaining
BKN MVFR. TSRA cannot be rule out this afternoon at any
terminal, but overall coverage is expected to remain low.

Expect areas of dense valley fog and low stratus to develop
tonight.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: High confidence in periodic restrictions;
medium to low confidence for timing.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: CIGs may lower into IFR at CRW/CKB/EKN/BKW
for a time mid morning.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

UTC 1HRLY       10   11   12   13   14   15   16   17   18   19   20   21
EDT 1HRLY       06   07   08   09   10   11   12   13   14   15   16   17
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  L    L    M    M    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    L
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M    H    H    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    M    H    H    H    H    H    H
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    L    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    M    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    L

AFTER 12Z WEDNESDAY...
Brief IFR conditions likely at times as rounds of showers and
thunderstorms impact the region nearly each afternoon and
evening for the upcoming week.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...Flash Flood Watch through late tonight for WVZ005>011-013>020-
     027>032-039-040.
OH...Flash Flood Watch through late tonight for OHZ066-067-075-076-
     083>087.
KY...Flash Flood Watch through late tonight for KYZ101>103-105.
VA...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...26/30
NEAR TERM...30
SHORT TERM...26
LONG TERM...26
AVIATION...30


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