Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Charleston, WV

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FXUS61 KRLX 170711
AFDRLX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Charleston WV
311 AM EDT Tue Jul 17 2018

.SYNOPSIS...
A cold front crosses Tuesday. High pressure Wednesday through
Thursday. Low pressure Friday through Sunday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 310 AM Tuesday...

Cold front approaching from the west while forecast area in
relatively moist atmosphere. Some night time convection
crossing central WV will continue to track east this morning. As
front approaches this afternoon, it should provide a trigger
for another band of showers and thunderstorms to develop and
track from west to east across the forecast area. Some with
locally heavy downpours. Latest short term models, appear to
have a fair handle on timing of sfc boundary across.

Have front exiting eastern forecast area this evening with
precipitation coming to an end from west to east through the
day.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
As of 250 PM Monday...

A cold front will exit the region Tuesday night ending the
showers and thunderstorms. Relatively cool and dry high
pressure will build in behind the front and will be in control
through Thursday night. Temperatures will be seasonal with lower
RH values the forecast period. Great time to get out and enjoy
the weather.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
As of 345 AM Monday...

High pressure gradually shifts northeastward Friday allowing
southerly winds and moisture to advect back into the region.
This will increase chances for showers and thunderstorms each
day through the weekend and into next week.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
As of 140 AM Tuesday...

Cold front across northwest Ohio will continue pushing southward
over night and during the day on Tuesday. With moist
atmospheric column ahead of front, we will continue to see
isolated to scattered showers with a few strikes of lightning
across the area. Mostly MVFR conditions will prevail with
isolated IFR near any heavier showers.

Front moves through on Tuesday with conditions gradually
improving to VFR. Surface gradients are light, but gust winds
could occur in vicinity of any convective activity.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: Low.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: Timing and location of convection will
require possible amendments. Fog development is possible at all
sites that saw rainfall earlier today.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

DATE                              TUE 07/17/18
UTC 1HRLY       06   07   08   09   10   11   12   13   14   15   16   17
EDT 1HRLY       02   03   04   05   06   07   08   09   10   11   12   13
CRW CONSISTENCY  M    L    L    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    M    M    H    H    M    L    H    M    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  L    L    L    L    H    H    L    M    H    L    H    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    H    M    L    M    M    M    L    M    L    L    H
PKB CONSISTENCY  M    H    M    L    L    L    L    H    H    H    M    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M    M    M    H    H

AFTER 06Z WEDNESDAY...
Morning fog possible mid week.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...None.
OH...None.
KY...None.
VA...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JSH/JS/KMC/MC
NEAR TERM...KMC
SHORT TERM...JS
LONG TERM...JS
AVIATION...KMC


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