951
FXUS63 KIWX 230931
AFDIWX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Northern Indiana
531 AM EDT Thu May 23 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Cooler and less humid weather settling in through Friday.

- Shower and thunderstorm chances return Friday afternoon and
  evening with a few strong storms possible especially west of
  Indiana 15/US 131.

- Saturday into early Sunday appears to be dry with additional
  chances for showers and storms Sunday afternoon into Sunday
  night.

- Lingering showers and storms and cooler temperatures may
  impact activities on Memorial Day and into the start of next
  week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 321 AM EDT Thu May 23 2024

Mostly clear skies in place across the area in the wake of a
cool front that moved through last night. A welcome change to drier
air is now in place with surface dew points in the 40s across
the area as opposed to the 60s yesterday. High temperatures
though today should be similar to temperatures yesterday as the
drier airmass will be quicker to modify the post frontal
airmass. Highs in the upper 70s and lower 80s expected today
across the forecast area. Lows this morning and tomorrow night
will be in the mid 50s.

The dry conditions should last into Friday morning before a warm
frontal boundary pushes northeastward into the region ahead of a
low pressure system that will move into the upper Midwest. Dew
points will again surge higher behind the warm front with breezy
southerly winds. Dew points will again be in the mid 60s by
Friday afternoon/evening. With the high temperatures getting
into the low to mid 80s, increased surface instability with SB
CAPE values around 1000 j/kg forecast for the area on Friday
coupled with a vigorous cold front beginning to move eastward
across the area by Friday evening. This front will help to
initiate thunderstorms which a few of the storms may become
strong with forecasted shear values around 25 to 30 knots,
perhaps a bit stronger along the frontal boundary. SPC currently
has the western half of our CWA under a slight risk and the
eastern half of the CWA with a marginal risk for strong to
severe storms. The main threat at this time will be winds,
however hail also will be possible. Will continue to monitor
conditions for this convective event as we get closer.

The cold front should be through by early Saturday and bring a
return to slightly cooler and drier conditions for Saturday with
highs mainly in the 70s however our far southern parts of the
CWA may see the low 80s. Clearing skies for the start to the
holiday weekend however clouds will again be on the increase by
Sunday with the arrival of another warm front into the region.
Showers and thunderstorms will again be possible with a few of
the storms once again potentially becoming strong by Sunday
afternoon/evening with better forcing with another cold front
arrival and an upper level low circulation setting up over the
Great Lakes region for the first half of the week. Right now
cooler temperatures expected for Memorial Day through Wednesday
with highs only in the upper 60s and low 70s and showers with a
few embedded thunderstorms possible each day.

The threat of precipitation and cooler temperatures looks to
remain through Wednesday before upper level ridging begins
building into the Great Lakes region late Wednesday into
Thursday bringing a return to drier conditions and a warming
trend. By Thursday, high temperatures will warm to the mid 70s.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY/...
Issued at 530 AM EDT Thu May 23 2024

No changes needed from the 06Z to the 12Z TAFs. Skies will be
clear, winds will be light, and temperatures will be cooler as a
result of drier air working its way in. As an area of surface
high pressure builds, winds have become light and variable; this
will continue through the morning hours. Skies have cleared as
a result of this high pressure located over the Great Lakes
region, and thus, there should be minimal impacts to aviation
during the TAF period.

&&

.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...None.
OH...None.
MI...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Andersen
AVIATION...Johnson