117
FXUS65 KBOU 262049
AFDBOU

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Denver/Boulder CO
249 PM MDT Sun May 26 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

-  A few late day showers and thunderstorms over the high
   mountains Monday afternoon, especially south of I-70.

- Warm through the coming week. There will be limited late day
  thunderstorm activity on Tuesday with better coverage Wednesday
  through Friday. A few severe storms are possible on the plains
  with the highest threat on Thursday.

&&

.SHORT TERM /Through Monday/...
Issued at 248 PM MDT Sun May 26 2024

Weak convective cloudiness is around over the CWA this afternoon.
There is very little on the radars, a few returns over
northwestern Jackson County is about it. Temperatures are in the
mid 60s to mid 70s over the plains and lower foothills right now.
The strong northwesterly winds over the plains earlier today have
decreased somewhat at this time.

Models have moderately strong northwesterly flow aloft for the CWA
tonight, then weaker zonal flow is progged on Monday.  Concerning
synoptic scale energy, the QG fields have weak downward vertical
motion for the the CWA tonight and Monday.  Looking at the available
moisture tonight and Monday along with the instability expected will
go with no pops for any of the CWA tonight and 10%s in the mountains
and high valleys south of I-70 on Monday afternoon. Monday`s highs
look to be 1-4 C warmer than today`s readings.

&&

.LONG TERM /Monday night through Sunday/...
Issued at 240 PM MDT Sun May 26 2024

The upper level ridge moves across the area Tuesday into Wednesday.
Low level moisture is limited across the plains Tuesday with a
chance of afternoon showers and thunderstorms. By Wednesday a
developing surface low will cause southeasterly winds to increase
with better low level moisture across the plains. Some of the
thunderstorms across the plains will be strong to severe.
Temperatures remain warm Tuesday and Wednesday with highs in the 70s
and 80s across the plains.

A stronger system moves across the Rockies Thursday into Friday.
Temperatures remain quite warm Thursday with a better chance of
severe thunderstorms across the eastern plains. Once the cold front
moves through the area Thursday night, temperatures on Friday will
be about 10 degrees cooler. Lingering moisture, but limited
instability Friday afternoon, will lead to showers and some weak
embedded thunderstorms across the area.

A return to warmer and drier conditions is expected next weekend as
the upper level ridge builds back across the area.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS through 18Z Monday/...
Issued at 1152 AM MDT Sun May 26 2024

Models continue to show decent northwesterly winds at DIA into the
early evening hours. Winds should transition to pretty weak
normal drainage patterns by 06Z. There will be no ceiling issues.

&&

.BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM....RJK
LONG TERM.....Stark
AVIATION......RJK