958
FXUS63 KICT 270531
AFDICT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wichita KS
1231 AM CDT Mon May 27 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Quiet and mild weather for today and Monday

- Chances for showers and thunderstorms Tuesday and Wednesday

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 306 PM CDT Sun May 26 2024

The remains of the frontal system is moving through far Southeastern
Kansas this afternoon which will kick off a few showers and
thunderstorms. This activity could be locally strong as the
environment is still conducive to stronger activity.  This will push
off to the east in the next few hours.  Later tonight and overnight,
a post frontal trough is moving through the CWA which is bringing in
some drier air behind.  Additionally, further north in Central and
Northeast Kansas, this trough is providing enough forcing to allow
for some scattered showers to develop. This trough may produce some
shower activity this evening as well but this is expected to be
isolated. This activity is not expected to become severe.  This
activity is expected to move off to the east during the overnight.
This will allow high pressure and subsidence will dominate the
region for Monday. This will allow for a nice Memorial Day. Monday
night and into Tuesday, a weak mid level system will be pushing into
the region from the south increasing the chances for showers and
thunderstorms.  This activity is not expected to be strong or severe
as the mid and upper level dynamics are not conducive to it.
Temperatures during this time will remain near normal or a little
above.

Wednesday and into next weekend, the forecast becomes muddy.
Multiple ensembles are indicating another round of shower and
thunderstorm activity.  Confidence remains rather low at this time,
especially on timing and intensity.  Current thinking indicates that
Friday and Saturday could be fairly active.  Strong to severe
thunderstorms chances appear rather low (20% or less) but can`t be
ruled out based on the indicated shear profiles. Rain chances in
general appear rather good for this time frame, just can`t nail down
the exact timing at this point.  The temperatures during this time
area also in question and could be a decent amount cooler than
currently forecast if there are more clouds than expected.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY/...
Issued at 1221 AM CDT Mon May 27 2024

Aviation concerns are expected to remain on the low side through
the next 24 hours.

Weak surface high pressure will settle over the area today
providing light winds and mostly clear skies. A very weak
surface convergence area will slide into south central KS this
afternoon with a few models developing a storm or two. However
confidence isn`t high enough at this time to insert into TAFs.
So will maintain VFR conditions through this TAF period.

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...ELM
AVIATION...RBL