Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wichita, KS
Issued by NWS Wichita, KS
Versions:
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
19
20
21
22
23
24
25
26
27
28
29
30
31
32
33
34
35
36
37
38
39
40
41
42
958 FXUS63 KICT 270531 AFDICT Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wichita KS 1231 AM CDT Mon May 27 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... - Quiet and mild weather for today and Monday - Chances for showers and thunderstorms Tuesday and Wednesday && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 306 PM CDT Sun May 26 2024 The remains of the frontal system is moving through far Southeastern Kansas this afternoon which will kick off a few showers and thunderstorms. This activity could be locally strong as the environment is still conducive to stronger activity. This will push off to the east in the next few hours. Later tonight and overnight, a post frontal trough is moving through the CWA which is bringing in some drier air behind. Additionally, further north in Central and Northeast Kansas, this trough is providing enough forcing to allow for some scattered showers to develop. This trough may produce some shower activity this evening as well but this is expected to be isolated. This activity is not expected to become severe. This activity is expected to move off to the east during the overnight. This will allow high pressure and subsidence will dominate the region for Monday. This will allow for a nice Memorial Day. Monday night and into Tuesday, a weak mid level system will be pushing into the region from the south increasing the chances for showers and thunderstorms. This activity is not expected to be strong or severe as the mid and upper level dynamics are not conducive to it. Temperatures during this time will remain near normal or a little above. Wednesday and into next weekend, the forecast becomes muddy. Multiple ensembles are indicating another round of shower and thunderstorm activity. Confidence remains rather low at this time, especially on timing and intensity. Current thinking indicates that Friday and Saturday could be fairly active. Strong to severe thunderstorms chances appear rather low (20% or less) but can`t be ruled out based on the indicated shear profiles. Rain chances in general appear rather good for this time frame, just can`t nail down the exact timing at this point. The temperatures during this time area also in question and could be a decent amount cooler than currently forecast if there are more clouds than expected. && .AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY/... Issued at 1221 AM CDT Mon May 27 2024 Aviation concerns are expected to remain on the low side through the next 24 hours. Weak surface high pressure will settle over the area today providing light winds and mostly clear skies. A very weak surface convergence area will slide into south central KS this afternoon with a few models developing a storm or two. However confidence isn`t high enough at this time to insert into TAFs. So will maintain VFR conditions through this TAF period. && .ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ DISCUSSION...ELM AVIATION...RBL