264
FXUS63 KICT 121711
AFDICT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wichita KS
1211 PM CDT Wed Jun 12 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Seasonably warm to above average temperatures and breezy south
  winds through at least mid next week.

- Widespread triple digit heat indices Thursday.

- Off-and-on thunderstorm chances Thursday evening through at
  least mid next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 310 AM CDT Wed Jun 12 2024

TODAY--THIS EVENING...With atmospheric thickness and southerly flow
increasing, temperatures will warm 3-6 degrees from yesterday`s
readings into the upper 80s to mid 90s. An increasing pressure
gradient will support breezy/gusty south winds, with gusts reaching
25-30 mph, mainly northwest of the Flint Hills.

For this evening, an approaching surface trough from the northwest
may serve as a focus for an isolated thunderstorm or two northwest
of a Great Bend to Salina line. However, suspect activity will
struggle to develop given weak low-level convergence amidst meager
upper support and warm mid-level temperatures, so left the forecast
dry for now.

THURSDAY...Isolated to widely scattered late afternoon-evening
thunderstorm chances will be focused over central and north-central
Kansas in vicinity of a stalling frontal zone approaching from the
north, along with an associated weak ripple in the mid-upper flow.
The potential for moderate to strong instability amidst around 30
kts of deep layer effective shear should support a few strong to
severe thunderstorms, with the main threats being large hail and
especially damaging winds, driven by impressive DCAPE values. If a
decent cold pool can get organized, northwest flow aloft could drive
a small thunderstorm complex south-southeast to near the Highway 50
or Highway 54/400 corridors during the evening. All-in-all,
relatively warm mid-level temperatures and weak forcing should
preclude widespread activity.

Additionally, Thursday should be the hottest day of the next 7-10
days, with forecast high temperatures well into the 90s to low 100s.
Combined with dewpoints in the 60s to near 70 degrees, afternoon
through early evening heat indices will likely be around 100 to 105
degrees for many across the region.

FRIDAY--NEXT WEDNESDAY...This period will feature continued
seasonably warm to above average temperatures, breezy south winds,
and periodic chances for thunderstorms. Despite marginal deep layer
shear, periodic bouts of moderate to strong instability should favor
a handful of strong to severe thunderstorms throughout this period,
along with pockets of heavy rainfall and localized flooding. At this
point, it appears the best chances for storms will be Saturday
evening-night west of the KS Turnpike ahead of an approaching upper
trough, along with next Tuesday evening-Wednesday as a frontal zone
approaches from the north.

Additionally, widespread triple digit heat looks unlikely, although
widespread 90s are probable, with overnight lows in the 60s and
70s.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY/...
Issued at 1209 PM CDT Wed Jun 12 2024

VFR conditions will prevail across the region over the next
24hrs. Gusty south winds this afternoon will diminish shortly
afternoon sunset. Meanwhile winds will switch to the southwest
and start to increase a bit by mid morning on Thursday.

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...ADK
AVIATION...CDJ