086
FXUS63 KOAX 281924
AFDOAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Omaha/Valley NE
224 PM CDT Tue May 28 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Warm and dry conditions are expected today and tomorrow.
  Afternoon highs will be in the upper 70s to near 80 degrees.

- Weather patterns gets more active beginning Thursday, with
  daily chances of precipitation across the entire region.

- There is some concern for heavy rainfall and localized
  flooding south of I-80 Thursday afternoon into Friday morning.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 224 PM CDT Tue May 28 2024

Pretty quiet across the region this afternoon with surface high
pressure largely in control, though we remained on the periphery of
cyclonic flow aloft with a weak surface cold front sliding through.
This has led to some cumulus development, and with model soundings
showing a decent bit of instability in the cloud layer, can`t
completely rule out a few sprinkles falling out of the clouds, but
with dry low-levels it`s pretty likely (95+% chance) you`ll stay
dry. Otherwise, temperatures as of 2 PM were in the mid 70s to
lower 80s. Expect similar quiet weather Wednesday as upper level
ridging pushes in and temperatures top out in the mid 70s to
lower 80s once again with southerly flow returning to the area.

The pattern becomes more active again by Thursday as the upper level
ridge pushes off to the east and some shortwave energy and a surface
cold front start to move into the area. As a result, guidance is in
good agreement that we`ll see fairly widespread showers and storms
by Thursday afternoon. Current indications are that the primary
instability axis will stay off to our south and west and shear will
be quite weak, which should limit the overall strength of the storms
rather significantly. Still, could be enough for some small hail
and/or gusty winds. Plus, with the weak shear, storms will move
quite slowly and with NAEFS suggesting mean precipitable water
values of 1.25+ inches (90th+ percentile of climatology), heavy rain
and localized flooding could become a threat. Precip will continue
into Friday, at least on and off through much of the day, but
general intensity will gradually decrease as we go through the day.

We should see a break in the precip Friday evening through at least
part of the day Saturday before another bit of shortwave energy
slides through and brings more shower and storm chances. Yet another
wave looks to slide through on Sunday, with some hints that it could
be a bit stronger/more amplified with a little more instability in
place. This could yield our next best chance for severe weather, and
the CSU machine learning severe weather outlooks suggest potential
for the weekend, especially Sunday, but there still remains quite a
bit of spread between ensemble members and there will be lots of
smaller scale details to work out between now and then. For what
it`s worth, guidance seems to be in decent agreement that shear
could still be rather weak, so that could end up limiting our severe
weather threat somewhat. But again, still lots to work out between
now and then.

Outside of the increasing storm chances later in the week through
the weekend, the main story looks to be increasing temperatures.
Guidance is in pretty good agreement that the entire area will be
firmly in the 80s by Sunday, with some hints at a few spots making a
run at 90 by early to mid next week.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 1204 PM CDT Tue May 28 2024

VFR conditions expected through the period with some clouds
around 7000 ft this afternoon and some mid-level clouds
overnight into Wednesday. Northwest winds will gust 20 to 25 kts
this afternoon before weakening this evening and turning
clockwise, eventually setting in at southeasterly.

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...None.
IA...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...CA
AVIATION...CA