Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Omaha/Valley, NE

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000
FXUS63 KOAX 241201
AFDOAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Omaha/Valley NE
601 AM CST Fri Nov 24 2017

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Sunday)
Issued at 330 AM CST Fri Nov 24 2017

...Unseasonably Warm Today/Record Highs Possible Ahead of the
Cold Front...

How warm will temperatures get today/will records be broken and
winds are expected to be the primary short term temperature
challenges.

Record high temperatures were set Thursday at Lincoln and Norfolk
with highs in the lower 70s and Omaha Eppley was just two degrees
shy of the current record of 64. See details in the climate
section below.

Today should be another near record/record setting day at some
spots with a pre-frontal trough veering winds around to the
southwest and west and adiabatic compressional heating with the
winds turning to the northwest with the cold front. The onset of
cooling arrives in northeast Nebraska at Norfolk and possibly
Omaha before the records have a chance to be set, however Lincoln
has a good shot at a record. The general model consensus is that
the highs will be in the 60s north of the Platte River and the
upper 60s to lower 70s south of the Platte River. The warmer
contributors to the model average are the MAV/HRRRExp which has
mid to upper 70s. Leaned toward some of those warmer
numbers...especially south of the Platte River with highs in the
lower to mid 70s. Not quite as warm in western Iowa where warming
may not be as strong.

Gusty northwest winds overspread the area behind the trough/cold
front 15-21Z at 15-25Kts with gusts 25 to 38kts. The max wind
gusts appear to be in northeast Nebraska for a few hours in the
early afternoon. The h9 35-45kt wind max tracks across the area. A
stronger pocket of 45 to 55kt h9 winds track across parts of SD to
our north.

Some mid level clouds should move into parts of the forecast area
this morning and this afternoon...however the front still looks to
move through dry...although a few sprinkles may develop toward
the Kansas border early this evening related to the left exit
region of the diving 110kt jet/area of mid level warm air
advection where the RAP/HRRR show a weak signal.

The surface winds decouple this evening with surface high pressure
over the area. The really cold air is shunted off to the east as
most lows drop to 30 to 35 Saturday morning. West or southwest
flow Saturday and Sunday results in above normal highs in the 50s.

.LONG TERM...(Sunday night through Thursday)
Issued at 330 AM CST Fri Nov 24 2017

...Some chance for mixed precipitation Tuesday night through
Wednesday and possibly Thursday.

Southwest flow increases for next Monday and could again see more
records fall...especially at LNK and possibly OMA. Meanwhile...a
storm system over the West Coast is forecast to track toward the
four corners regions Monday night. The lowering heights push a
cold front through with cooler highs for Tuesday, but still above
normal in the 40s/50s. The EC brings the storm system farther
north across the forecast area Tuesday night and Wed. The GFS is
150nm farther southeast and the northwest part of the storm system clips
southeast Nebraska. For now we do have rain/snow mentioned with
more of an EC track. There may be some light rain/snow Thursday
with a trailing trough and some reinforcing cold air, however the
blends are dry. Ridging looks to build in for Friday.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Saturday morning)
Issued at 558 AM CST Fri Nov 24 2017

Cold front will sweep across the area today with gusty northwest
winds developing behind the front. Winds diminish by 00Z with high
pressure building into the area overnight. VFR conditions will
prevail through the period.

&&

.CLIMATE...
Issued at 330 AM CST Fri Nov 24 2017

Record highs were set Thursday at LNK 71 - the old record was 68
in 1914 and OFK 72 the previous record was 66 in 1902.

Record highs for today (Nov. 24) are OMA/73/2011 LNK/72/2011
OFK/74/1942.

More records may fall next Monday (Nov. 27) OMA 67/1998 LNK
68/1998 1963 1933 & OFK 73/1998

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...None.
IA...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Zapotocny
LONG TERM...Zapotocny
AVIATION...Fobert
CLIMATE...Zapotocny



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