000
FXUS63 KOAX 150449
AFDOAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
1149 PM CDT MON APR 14 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 951 PM CDT MON APR 14 2014

WITH THE EVENING UPDATE...LOWERED LOWS FOR THE SNOW COVERED AREAS
IN NORTHEAST NEBRASKA TO THE UPPER TEENS. THE BULK OF THE WET
SNOW/FLURRIES HAD DISSIPATED...HOWEVER STILL SOME MID CLOUDS THEN
EXPECT CLEARING. DID INCLUDE MENTION OF PATCHY FOG IN THE
SOUTH...WHERE DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS ARE LOW. NOTE...WITH
TEMPERATURES BELOW FREEZING...FOG DEPOSITING ON SURFACES COULD
MAKE FOR SLICK CONDITIONS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 234 PM CDT MON APR 14 2014

FAST PROGRESSIVE UPPER FLOW IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE ACROSS THE
REGION WITH ALTERNATING PERIODS OF SPRING TO WINTER CONDITIONS.

UPPER TROUGH WAS MOVING ACROSS EASTERN NEBRASKA AT MID AFTERNOON
WITH SPOTTY INSTABILITY SHOWERS BEHIND THE TROUGH OVER CENTRAL
NEBRASKA. TROUGH SHOULD BE EAST OF THE AREA BY EARLY EVENING WITH
THE SPRINKLES OR FLURRIES SPREADING INTO EASTERN PARTS OF NEBRASKA
BEFORE ENDING AFTER SUNSET. MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS
SHOULD ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO DROP INTO THE LOWER AND MID 20S
OVERNIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES OVER THE REGION. QUICK RETURN
TO WARMER TEMPERATURES ON TUESDAY AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES INTO
WESTERN DAKOTAS WITH SOUTHERLY FLOW INCREASING AS SURFACE GRADIENT
TIGHTENS OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS. FORECAST AREA REMAINS IN THE
WARM SECTOR OF THE SYSTEM TUESDAY NIGHT WITH PRECIP CHANCES
STAYING NORTH AND WEST OF THE AREA AS THE LOW MOVES INTO SOUTHEAST
SOUTH DAKOTA WEDNESDAY MORNING. AS THE LOW MOVES EAST INTO
NORTHERN IOWA ON WEDNESDAY IT DRAGS ANOTHER COLD FRONT THROUGH THE
FORECAST AREA AND DOWN INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS.

MAIN CHANGE TO FORECAST WAS TO REMOVE MENTION OF POPS NORTHERN
PARTS OF THE AREA LATE TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY AS BETTER
FORCING AND MOISTURE STAYS TO THE NORTH. THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH
THE AREA DRY WITH LIMITED MOISTURE AVAILABLE THEN STALLS ACROSS
KANSAS AND NORTHERN MISSOURI WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. PRECIP
CHANCES INCREASE ALONG AND NORTH OF THE FRONT LATE WEDNESDAY
NIGHT AND THURSDAY AS OVERRUNNING PATTERN DEVELOPS WITH SOUTHERN
PARTS OF THE CWA EXPECTED TO SEE BEST CHANCE FOR RAIN. HELD
TEMPERATURES DOWN FROM GUIDANCE THERE ON THURSDAY AS WELL AS A
RESULT OF EXPECTED RAIN AND CLOUDS.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 234 PM CDT MON APR 14 2014

UPPER FLOW BECOMES MORE ZONAL IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD WITH A SPLIT
FLOW DEVELOPING. MODELS DIFFER ON STRENGTH AND TIMING OF WAVES
THAT COME ACROSS OVER THE EASTER WEEKEND SO RATHER LOW CONFIDENCE
WITH POPS DURING THIS TIME. MUCH WARMER TEMPERATURES INDICATED
EARLY NEXT WEEK AS BOTH GFS AND EURO AMPLIFY UPPER RIDGE OVER THE
WESTERN HIGH PLAINS.

&&

.AVIATION...(06Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KLNK AND KOMA.)
ISSUED AT 1145 PM CDT MON APR 14 2014

VFR CONDITIONS WITH A FEW PATCHY MID CLOUDS OVERNIGHT FL080-100.
SOME PATCHY FOG OVERNIGHT...HOWEVER CONFIDENCE TOO LOW TO INCLUDE
AT THE TAF SITES. SURFACE WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE...THEN
INCREASE TO 12 TO 20KTS SUSTAINED AFTER 18Z FROM THE SOUTH. LLWS
MAY NEED TO BE ADDED LATE IN THE TAF PERIOD AS A 50 TO 60KT LOW
LEVEL JET DEVELOPS.

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...ZAPOTOCNY
SHORT TERM...FOBERT
LONG TERM...FOBERT
AVIATION...ZAPOTOCNY