Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Omaha/Valley, NE

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000
FXUS63 KOAX 301934
AFDOAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Omaha/Valley NE
234 PM CDT TUE AUG 30 2016

.SHORT TERM...(tonight through Friday)
Issued at 218 PM CDT TUE AUG 30 2016

The weak trough aloft has settled into the mid Missouri River
valley, with ample environmental tropical moisture in place
across the southern half of the forecast area. PW values remained
near 1.8" from the 12z KOAX sounding, and could be as high as 2"
along/south of I80. Skies have been cloud today, which has limited
daytime heating. Scattered showers have continued across the
southern 2/3 of the forecast area today, with stronger showers and
isolated thunderstorms noted across south central NE where deeper
layered moisture flux convergence was likely occurring. The trough
will drift southward tonight into early Wednesday, with drier
higher pressure building in from the north.

Will maintain a chance of showers and isolated storms tonight,
with likely coverage in southeast NE through the evening. It`s
also in this area that heavier downpours will be possible, but
highly doubt we`ll see storms of the magnitude of yesterday due to
much lower instability. Thus, will extend the flash flood watch
for just 3 counties in southeast NE through midnight, but cancel
the remainder of the watch since additional excessive rainfall is
not expected.

The remainder of Wednesday through Friday will be a very decent
period of quiet, tranquil weather. Sunny skies are expected, along
with very comfortable temps and humidity as well. Great way to end
the week heading into the holiday weekend.

.LONG TERM...(Friday night through Tuesday)
Issued at 218 PM CDT TUE AUG 30 2016

Thunderstorm chances return to the forecast throughout the holiday
weekend unfortunately, as a series of upper level disturbances
move across the region, combined with a cold front moving into the
area on Monday night. Thunderstorms could even become likely in
portions of northeast NE both Saturday night and Sunday night.
Seasonable temps are expected through the period,

&&

.AVIATION...(18Z TAFS for KOFK...KLNK and KOMA.)
Issued at 1227 PM CDT TUE AUG 30 2016

Weak 850MB front is expected to push slowly south during the
period with a chance of thunderstorms in the vicinity of the front
near the southern Nebraska border. MVFR cigs and vsby likely at
KLNK closest to the boundary through around 22z. MVFR cigs in fog
possible at all sites after 06z.

&&

.OAX Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NE...Flash Flood Watch until midnight CDT tonight for NEZ078-088-089.

IA...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DeWald
LONG TERM...DeWald
AVIATION...Fobert



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