000
FXUS63 KOAX 040352
AFDOAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
952 PM CST TUE MAR 3 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 940 PM CST TUE MAR 3 2015

RIGHT REAR ENTRANCE UPPER LEVEL JET SUPPORT INCREASING LIFT AND
OMEGA/FRONTOGENESIS INCREASING OVER SOUTHERN NEBRASKA AS THE LONG
WAVE TROF MOVES FROM THE ROCKIES INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS. CLOUDS
HAVE BEEN THICKENING WITH CIGS AROUND 10KFT AT ALBION AND AROUND
4K FEET AT LEXINGTON. FLURRIES ARE BEING REPORTED AT THEDFORD AND
SNOW STICKING IN LINCOLN COUNTY. CONTINUE WITH CHANCE MENTION OF
LIGHT SNOW AND ALSO FLURRIES FOR WEST CENTRAL/SOUTHEAST NEBRASKA
AS THIS FEATURE ROTATES THROUGH DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS.
NORTH WINDS CONTINUE TO DIMINISH WITH LOWS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS
AND TEENS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 308 PM CST TUE MAR 3 2015

TEMPERATURES WILL PROVIDE THE MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGES BUT WILL HAVE
TO ADDRESS SOME LIGHT PCPN CHANCES TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY.

PRIMARY FEATURES OF CONCERN FROM THE UPPER AIR CHARTS AT 12Z THIS
MORNING INCLUDED THE FOLLOWING. AT 300 MB STRONG WINDS EXTENDED FROM
OFF THE WEST COAST OF BAJA UP INTO NEBRASKA (145 KNOT MAX OVER KOAX)
AND THEN INTO THE NORTHEAST PART OF THE COUNTRY. A BROAD AREA OF
500 MB HEIGHT FALLS EXTENDED FROM CANADA DOWN INTO NEW MEXICO...
WITH A MAX OF AROUND 180 METERS OVER SOUTHERN MANITOBA. ANOTHER
AREA OF HEIGHT FALLS WAS NOTED AHEAD OF THE CLOSED LOW THAT WAS
DROPPING SOUTHEAST TOWARD THE WEST COAST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
NORTE. AT 850 MB...A POCKET OF COLD AIR WAS DROPPING SOUTHEAST
FROM SOUTHERN ALBERTA AND SOUTHERN SASKATCHEWAN.

COLD HIGH PRESSURE WILL START TO BUILD SOUTH ACROSS THE NORTHERN
PLAINS TONIGHT BUT THE CENTER OF THE RIDGE AXIS WILL REMAIN TO OUR
NORTHWEST OVER MONTANA AND WYOMING. SOME LIGHT SNOW COULD DEVELOP
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN/SOUTHWESTERN PARTS OF THE THE FORECAST AREA
TONIGHT...AND WILL INCLUDE SOME CHANCE POPS MAINLY FROM AROUND
COLUMBUS SOUTH TO SEWARD/LINCOLN/FAIRBURY/BEATRICE/PAWNEE CITY.
AMOUNTS SHOULD BE LESS THAN HALF AN INCH. BETTER POTENTIAL FOR
HIGHER AMOUNTS IS TO THE SOUTH. ON WEDNESDAY...SOME FLURRIES
COULD DEVELOP IN OUR NORTHERN COUNTIES DURING THE AFTERNOON.
OTHERWISE...HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD
EAST WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO OUR AREA. WEAK RETURN
FLOW SHOULD DEVELOP BY 12Z THURSDAY. SOUTH/SOUTHWEST WINDS SHOULD
INCREASE THURSDAY AND HELP PUSH HIGHS INTO THE 30S FOR MOST OF
THE AREA...BUT SOME SPOTS IN SOUTHWEST IOWA MAY ONLY REACH THE
UPPER 20S.

FAVORABLE WESTERLY WINDS WILL HELP MIX DOWN WARMER AIR FROM ALOFT
AND PUSH HIGHS INTO THE 50 TO 55 DEGREE RANGE MOST LOCATIONS ON
FRIDAY.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 308 PM CST TUE MAR 3 2015

A FAIRLY SIGNIFICANT PATTERN CHANGE IS EXPECTED TO OCCUR IN THIS
PERIOD. INITIALLY A RIDGE WILL BE OUT OVER THE PACIFIC NEAR THE DATE
LINE...A MODERATELY STRONG CLOSED LOW WILL BE NEAR 38N/150W...A
RIDGE WILL BE ALONG THE WEST COAST AND A WEAK CLOSED LOW WILL BE
OVER NORTHWEST MEXICO. THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS WILL BE IN
NORTHWEST FLOW AT 500 MB. THROUGH THE WEEKEND...THE FLOW WILL
DEAMPLIFY AND BECOME MORE ZONAL BY EARLY NEXT WEEK...THEN THE FLOW
EVEN STARTS TO TURN TOWARD THE SOUTHWEST BY MID WEEK. THIS WILL
FAVOR A WARMER PATTERN THAN WHAT WE HAVE SEEN RECENTLY. FOR NOW...
IT LOOKS MAINLY DRY...BUT USUALLY THESE SOUTHWEST FLOW PATTERNS
TURN WET AT SOME POINT.

&&

.AVIATION...(00Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KLNK AND KOMA.)
ISSUED AT 530 PM CST TUE MAR 3 2015

VARIABLE MID AND HIGH CLOUDS CAN BE EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 12HRS
AS THE LONGWAVE TROF OVER THE ROCKIES SWINGS EAST INTO THE
CENTRAL PLAINS. VARIABLE HIGH CLOUDS CAN BE EXPECTED EARLY
ON...HOWEVER...AS MOISTURE AND LIFT INCREASES...CLOUDS SHOULD
THICKEN. THERE MAY BE ENOUGH MOISTURE AND LIFT FOR SOME LIGHT SNOW
AND FLURRIES TO DEVELOP BETWEEN 06Z AND 09Z. FOR NOW...HAVE VFR
CONDITIONS THROUGH THE PERIOD.  WILL MONITOR DEVELOPMENT THIS
EVENING OVER CENTRAL NEBRASKA AND WILL ADD IF NEEDED ALONG WITH
ANY LOWER CIGS/VSBYS. BRISK NORTHWEST WINDS 15G25KTS WILL
GRADUALLY DECREASE TO UNDER 12KTS TONIGHT. WEDNESDAY
MORNING...NORTHWEST WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 14-20KTS AFTER 15-18Z.


&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...ZAPOTOCNY
SHORT TERM...MILLER
LONG TERM...MILLER
AVIATION...ZAPOTOCNY