000
FXUS63 KOAX 102301
AFDOAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
601 PM CDT MON MAR 10 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 324 PM CDT MON MAR 10 2014

A SHORTWAVE TROUGH AXIS CURRENTLY OVER THE NORTHWEST STATES WILL
CONTINUE TO MOVE EAST SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE ROCKIES AND INTO THE
CENTRAL PLAIN STATES BY TUESDAY NIGHT. AHEAD OF THIS...LEE SIDE
SFC LOW PRESSURE WILL STRENGTHEN AND MOVE SOUTHEAST FROM EASTERN
WYOMING ACROSS WESTERN NEBRASKA AND INTO NORTHEAST KANSAS/WESTERN
MISSOURI BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON. THIS WILL DRAG A SHARP COLD FRONT
THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA TUESDAY...ALONG WITH A LIKELY CHANCE FOR
PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED WITH A QUICK MOVING MID LEVEL
FRONTOGENETIC CIRCULATION. PCPN SHOULD SPREAD SOUTH INTO
NORTHEAST NEBRASKA AFTER 12Z...WITH PCPN TYPE PRIMARILY AS RAIN
WITH SOME SNOW MIXING IN BY LATE MORNING AND EVENTUALLY CHANGING
OVER TO LIGHT SNOW IN THE AFTERNOON. PCPN WILL SPREAD SOUTH
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AS RAIN...MIXING WITH AND CHANGING OVER TO
LIGHT SNOW AFTER 00Z FOR MOST OF THE AREA AS TEMPERATURES DROP
BEHIND THE FRONT. WE ARE EXPECTING MOST OF THIS PCPN TO FALL AS
RAIN...WITH ONLY SOME LIGHT SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS UNDER A 0.5" BY
THE TIME THE SYSTEM MOVES OUT TUESDAY EVENING. THE OTHER ISSUE
WITH THIS SYSTEM IS THE POTENTIAL FOR STRONG SFC WINDS REACHING
ADVISORY CRITERIA. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BEHIND THE FRONT GREATLY
INCREASES BETWEEN THE LOW PRESSURE TO OUR SOUTHEAST AND HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDING OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS. WILL GO AHEAD AND
ISSUE A WIND ADVISORY FOR TOMORROW AFTERNOON FOR SOUTHEAST
NEBRASKA FOR THE AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EVENING.

SFC PRESSURE GRADIENT RELAXES TUESDAY NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
INTO THE REGION. MORE SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED WITH
HIGHS IN THE 40S BOTH TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. STRONG 850MB WARM AIR
ADVECTION AND FAVORABLE MIXING WINDS SHOULD HELP REBOUND TEMPS INTO
THE 60S ON THURSDAY.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 324 PM CDT MON MAR 10 2014

LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE EXTENDED PORTION OF THE FORECAST AS 12Z MODELS
SHOW CONSIDERABLE DISAGREEMENT IN STRENGTH AND TIMING OF
INCREASINGLY AMPLIFIED FLOW AND A SERIES OF SHORT WAVES MOVING
ACROSS THE CENTRAL PART OF THE NATION. SOME LOW POPS REMAIN IN PLACE
OVER THE WEEKEND WITH THE FIRST EXPECTED WAVE BUT DRY THEREAFTER DUE
TO THE UNCERTAINTY SEEN IN THE MODEL SOLUTIONS WITH THE SECOND WAVE.
LITTLE CHANGE IN TEMPERATURES WITH LATEST GUIDANCE MAINTAINING
CURRENT FORECAST TREND.

&&

.AVIATION...(00Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KLNK AND KOMA.)
ISSUED AT 558 PM CDT MON MAR 10 2014

VFR CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST OVERNIGHT AS LIGHT SOUTHEAST WINDS
PERSIST AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE NORTH. THAT
FRONT WILL ARRIVE IN NORTHEAST NEBRASKA AT KOFK AROUND 14Z...THEN
ALONG INTERSTATE 80 A KLNK AND KOMA BY 17Z. BEHIND THE FRONT
EXPECT NORTH WINDS OF 20 TO 30KT AND MVFR CIGS NEAR FL025. RAIN
WILL ALSO MOVE IN BEHIND THE FRONT...WHICH WILL BRING MVFR VSBYS
AND CIGS NEAR FL015 TO KOFK BY 18Z AND KLNK/KOMA BY 21Z. THE RAIN
WILL LIKELY CHANGE TO SNOW IN THE KOFK AREA BY 22Z WITH
ACCOMPANYING IFR CIGS/VSBYS.

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...WIND ADVISORY FROM 1 PM TO 8 PM CDT TUESDAY FOR NEZ050-065-066-
     068-078-088>093.

IA...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...KERN
LONG TERM...FOBERT
AVIATION...DERGAN