000
FXUS63 KOAX 221106
AFDOAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
606 AM CDT TUE JUL 22 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 335 AM CDT TUE JUL 22 2014

THE FORECAST CONCERNS IN THE SHORT TERM WILL BE ISOLATED ELEVATED
CONVECTION AND RESIDUAL CLOUDCOVER THIS MORNING...HEAT/HEAT
HEADLINES AHEAD OF THE SURFACE FRONT...THEN POTENTIAL FOR
ISOLATED STORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

SHORT RANGE MODELS ARE NOT HANDLING CURRENT RADAR TRENDS THE
BEST. AN ELEVATED CELL DID POP UP OVER SAUNDERS AND DOUGLAS
COUNTIES...AND DID HAVE SOME LIGHTNING WITH IS AS IT MOVED ACROSS
OUR WEST CENTRAL IOWA COUNTIES. THIS WAS ELEVATED AND IN RESPONSE
TO THE STRONG SHORTWAVE TROF THAT WAS MOVING ACROSS
MINNESOTA/NORTHERN WISCONSIN AND OUR AREA IS ON THE TAIL END OF
THE WAVE. THIS FEATURE WILL CONTINUE TO SHIFT EAST INTO IOWA. OUR
00Z SOUNDING SHOWED A LOT OF INSTABILITY WITH LITTLE INHIBITION
ALONG WITH 1.65 INCHES PWAT. THE FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW THAT THIS
TREND CONTINUES DURING THE DAY WITH HIGH MOISTURE STILL AVAILABLE.
A SECOND AREA OF STORMS EXTENDS FROM SOUTH DAKOTA INTO WESTERN
NEBRASKA. THE COVERAGE IS UNDERDONE BY THE MODELS. DID INCLUDE
SOME ISOLATED TSRA IN NORTHEAST NEBRASKA AS THINK SOME OF THE
ISOLATED STORM WILL HOLD TOGETHER AS THIS FEATURE MOVES EAST.
THIS AFTERNOON...CONVERGENCE ALONG THE FRONT AND LIFT WITH THE
UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM COMBINED WITH POOLED MOISTURE SHOULD GENERATE
STORMS NEAR THE KANSAS BORDER. THE EXACT LOCATION IS TOUGH TO PIN
DOWN IF IT WILL BE IN OUR CWA OF FARTHER SOUTH. DID INCLUDE POPS
IN SOUTHEAST NEBRASKA AND SOUTHWEST IOWA THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.
SPC HAS ADDED SOUTHEAST NEBRASKA AND SOUTHWEST IOWA TO THE DAY1
OUTLOOK. THIS SEEMS REASONABLE THAT THEY COULD BE STRONG OR
MARGINALLY SEVERE IF WE CAN GET STORMS TO FORM IN THE AREA DUE TO
THE MODERATE INSTABILITY.

LINGERING CLOUDS COULD BE AN ISSUE FOR OUR HIGH TEMPERATURES
TODAY. DID TRIM HIGHS IN THE NORTH AND A FEW NORTHERN COUNTIES
FROM THE HEAT ADVISORY...OTHERWISE WILL KEEP THE REST OF THE AREA
GOING WITH A HEAT ADVISORY AS READINGS CAN STILL TOP THE 94 TO
100 DEGREE RANGE WITH HEAT INDEX VALUES OF 105 OR MORE.

HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FOR WEDNESDAY...THEN WE HAVE THE LOW
LEVEL JET WITH 50KT FLOW RETURNING DEEP MOISTURE TO THE AREA. THIS
SHOULD RESULT IN STRONG THETA-E ADVECTION AND WILL ALSO HAVE SOME
UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT FOR CONVECTION WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 335 AM CDT TUE JUL 22 2014

THE STORMS THURSDAY APPEAR TO BE ELEVATED AND COULD LINGER INTO
THURSDAY NIGHT. SATURDAY...WE ARE UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF NORTHWEST
FLOW ALOFT AND THERE IS AN APPROACHING SHORTWAVE DROPPING SOUTH
FROM CANADA. THERE MAY BE ENOUGH SUPPORT FOR SOME ISOLATED STORMS
SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY MORNING AS THIS FEATURE DEEPENS THE TROF OVER
THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. AHEAD OF THE FRONT...HIGHS COULD BE
IN THE UPPER 80S TO MID 90S...WITH COOLER TEMPERATURES FORECAST IN
THE 80S FOR THE REST OF THE EXTENDED.

&&

.AVIATION...(12Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KLNK AND KOMA.)
ISSUED AT 544 AM CDT TUE JUL 22 2014

VFR CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING. COLD FRONT
DRIFTING SOUTH WILL MOVE THROUGH TAF SITES BY 15Z WITH NORTH WINDS
NEAR 10KT FOLLOWING. MAINLY SCATTERED TO BROKEN MID AND HIGH
CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD. AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR
THUNDERSTORM COULD POP DURING THE AFTERNOON...BUT MAIN ACTIVITY IS
FORECAST ALONG FRONT WHICH WILL BE WELL SOUTH OF TAF SITES.

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR NEZ044-045-050>053-
     065>068-078-088>093.

IA...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR IAZ055-056-069-079-
     080-090-091.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...ZAPOTOCNY
LONG TERM...ZAPOTOCNY
AVIATION...DERGAN