062
FXUS63 KDLH 090921
AFDDLH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Duluth MN
421 AM CDT Sun Jun 9 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Dry and breezy today as a backdoor cold front moves through
  the region.

- Continued dry for Monday with chances for frost mainly tonight
  into Monday morning.

- Rainfall chances return starting Tuesday and persist through
  the remainder of the week as temperatures warm above normal.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 421 AM CDT Sun Jun 9 2024

Weak high pressure was located over the Northern Plains early
this morning with a cold front just north of Lake Superior and
the International Border across northwestern Ontario. As this
front drops southward this morning and into this afternoon,
skies will become partly to mostly cloudy and northerly winds
will gust to 20 to 25 mph. High pressure then builds in tonight
leading to clearing skies and winds becoming calm.

With these clearing skies and calm winds, good radiational
cooling conditions are expected as well. This will allow lows
across portions of the Minnesota Arrowhead and areas along and
north of the Iron Range to fall into the mid-30s leading to
areas of frost. Freezing temperatures are not expected.
Temperatures have trended slightly warmer across northwest
Wisconsin and the chance for frost there has lessened as a
result. Frost Advisories may be needed if this trend continues.

High pressure will remain in control for Monday with very dry
air expected. Blended in some lower RH values with this package
with the greatest changes from the Arrowhead to areas north of
the Iron Range with RH values falling into the 20 to 25 percent
range during the afternoon hours. Winds will be light, however,
which will limit the threat of near-critical fire weather
conditions.

Tuesday will see moisture and warmth return to the region on the
backside of the high ahead of an approaching cold front. This
will lead to chances for showers and thunderstorms across the
region during the day. CAPE and shear look pretty anemic with
this system with CAPE only around 500 J/kg and shear around 30
knots. As such, no strong or severe storms are currently
expected with this system. Another system will track across the
region on Wednesday in nearly zonal flow aloft. Models differ on
the timing of this system, but the best parameter space for any
strong or severe storms looks to remain more across southern
Minnesota. Still, the mid-week looks to be the best chance for
any strong to severe storms in the region, so a close eye will
need to be kept on this period over the next few days. Chances
for showers and storms will linger through the remainder of the
week with temperatures warming into the 70s for most of the
period with readings near to above normal for mid June.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY/...
Issued at 1255 AM CDT Sun Jun 9 2024

VFR conditions will prevail this morning before a backdoor cold
front moves across the region after sunrise. This will bring
MVFR ceilings that will last through much of the day before
clearing skies return around sunset. Winds will be breezy from
the north with gusts to 20 to 25 knots through much of the day
before diminishing around sunset. VFR conditions then return
for the remainder of the period.

&&

.MARINE /FOR NEAR SHORE WATERS OF WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR/...
Issued at 421 AM CDT Sun Jun 9 2024

Northerly winds today will be sustained at 10 to 15 knots with
gusts to 20 to 22 knots, highest near the Twin Ports. Gusts are
expected to remain below advisory criteria today, but if they
trend a bit stronger, it may lead to conditions hazardous to
small craft for a time. Winds will be around 10 knots or less
for Monday into Monday night as high pressure moves through the
region. A cold front will move through on Tuesday with chances
for showers and thunderstorms. Winds will be southerly to
southwesterly on Tuesday at 10 to 15 knots with gusts to 20 to
22 knots.

For the open water discussion, refer to the NWS Marquette Area
Forecast Discussion at weather.gov/mqt.

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...None.
WI...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...BJH
AVIATION...BJH
MARINE...BJH