Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Aberdeen, SD

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917
FXUS63 KABR 272317 AAA
AFDABR

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Aberdeen SD
617 PM CDT SAT AUG 27 2016

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Monday Night)
Issued at 342 PM CDT SAT AUG 27 2016

SHORTWAVE IS MOVING EAST ACROSS THE DAKOTAS THIS AFTERNOON...BUT SO
FAR ALL THE THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY HAS REMAINED TO THE NORTH. STILL
WATCHING POTENTIAL FOR A FEW STORMS TO BACK-BUILD SOUTH INTO
ROBERTS/TRAVERSE COUNTIES OVER THE NEXT COUPLE HOURS. AFTER 06Z
TONIGHT...WILL ALSO BE WATCHING AN INCREASING LOW LEVEL JET AND THE
THREAT FOR A FEW THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY OVER EAST CENTRAL SD AND INTO
MN. WILL KEEP IN SLIGHT CHANCE POPS OVER THE SOUTHEAST CWA.

HOTTER CONDITIONS RETURN TO THE AREA ON SUNDAY WITH HIGHS RANGING
FROM THE UPPER 80S TO UPPER 90S. RATHER LOW RH VALUES STILL FORECAST
OVER CENTRAL SD...MAINLY WEST OF THE MISSOURI OVER FIRE WEATHER ZONE
267 WHERE READINGS COULD DIP TO 20 PERCENT OR BELOW. IT STILL
APPEARS WIND GUSTS WILL REMAIN BELOW RFW CRITERIA SO NO HEADLINES AT
THIS TIME.

WILL THEN BE WATCHING A FRONTAL BOUNDARY MOVE SOUTH ACROSS THE CWA
ON MONDAY...WITH WINDS GRADUALLY SWITCHING TO THE NORTHEAST. WILL
HAVE TO MONITOR POTENTIAL FOR THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE FRONT BY LATE
AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday through Saturday)
Issued at 342 PM CDT SAT AUG 27 2016

An upper level ridge will be situated to the west of our region to
begin the long term with a large upper level low pressure trough
moving into the west coast. The upper ridge will build slowly east
across our region through the week while the west coast trough
builds into the western U.S. With this setup, along with steady
south breezes and mostly sunny skies, the long term still looks to
be about 5 to 10 degrees above normal for this time of year. Highs
will be in the 80s to the lower 90s for the entire period. It will
be dry through at least Thursday until short waves from the western
trough begin affecting the region. Thus, brought back chances of
showers and storms for Thursday night through Saturday.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Sunday Evening)
Issued at 616 PM CDT SAT AUG 27 2016

Other than some patchy fog overnight, it should be VFR for all
locations through Sunday.

&&

.ABR Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...TMT
LONG TERM...Mohr
AVIATION...TDK



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