Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Aberdeen, SD

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000
FXUS63 KABR 300906
AFDABR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
406 AM CDT THU OCT 30 2014

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY
THE COLDEST AIR SO FAR THIS SEASON WILL INVADE THE REGION LATER
TODAY. AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE CURRENTLY OVER THE REGION WILL
CONTINUE PUSHING EAST THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS. A SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE CURRENTLY OVER SOUTHERN CANADA WILL CONTINUE SINKING
SOUTHWARD CAUSING A MODERATE PRESSURE GRADIENT TO DEVELOP. THIS
WILL CAUSE WINDY CONDITIONS TO DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON. AN
EXPANSIVE LOW STRATUS DECK IS CURRENTLY ASSOCIATED WITH THE
CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE. THE GFS IS RATHER OPTIMISTIC WITH THIS
CLOUD DECK DISSIPATING IN TIME. WILL RUN WITH THE SREF/NAM WHICH
SHOWS THE CLOUDS HOLDING TOGETHER AND REACHING THE ND/SD BORDER
BETWEEN 14-16Z.

THE CLOUDS ARE PROJECTED TO DISSIPATE LATER THIS AFTERNOON WITH
MOSTLY CLEAR SKY EXPECTED TONIGHT. WITH LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS BY
12Z FRIDAY DUE TO THE PLACEMENT OF THE HIGH PRESSURE...AND 925 MB
TEMPS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS BELOW ZERO...LOW TEMPERATURES BY FRIDAY
MORNING SHOULD BE IN THE TEENS. THE HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS EAST OF
THE REGION ON FRIDAY...ALLOWING FOR SOUTHERLY FLOW TO DEVELOP LATE
IN THE DAY. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT CONTINUES TO TIGHTEN FRIDAY
NIGHT WITH 925 MB WINDS INCREASING TO 45 KNOTS BY 12Z SATURDAY.
THE STRONG SOUTHERLY WINDS DIMINISH SOME ON SATURDAY WITH MODEL
GUIDANCE SUGGESTING SUB ADVISORY WINDS.

.LONG TERM...SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY

A WEAK SFC LOW WILL MOVE OVER THE DAKOTAS ON SUNDAY. THERE ARE
STILL SOME MAJOR DIFFERENCES WITH HOW MODELS HANDLE QPF WITH THIS
SYSTEM SO STUCK WITH THE MODEL BLEND FOR NOW WHICH BRINGS POPS
ACROSS THE EAST ON MONDAY AS THE SFC LOW DEPARTS. AS THE UPPER
TROUGH SWINGS THROUGH ON MONDAY TEMPERATURES WILL COOL ACROSS
THE AREA. AFTER MONDAY THE REGION WILL MOVE INTO NORTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT WITH A DRY FORECAST. TEMPERATURES WILL ALSO MODERATE TO AT
OR ABOVE AVERAGE FOR THE START OF NOVEMBER.

&&

.AVIATION...
06Z TAFS FOR THE KABR...KATY...KPIR AND KMBG TERMINALS

AN AREA OF LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS WILL TRACK ACROSS THE NORTH CENTRAL
AND NORTHEASTERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA...LIKELY EXITING THE CWA
BETWEEN 07Z AND 10Z. CIGS WILL BE VFR THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS. AN AREA OF MVFR CIGS OVER SOUTHERN CANADA AS OF 06Z LOOKS
TO PUSH SOUTHWARD OVERNIGHT...AND MAY AFFECT THE CWA DURING THE
MORNING AND AFTERNOON HOURS ON THURSDAY. VSBYS WILL BE VFR THROUGH
THE TAF PERIOD.

&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$
SHORT TERM...SD
LONG TERM...WISE
AVIATION...WISE

WEATHER.GOV/ABERDEEN




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