Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Aberdeen, SD

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FXUS63 KABR 250026 AAA
AFDABR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
726 PM CDT TUE MAR 24 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 328 PM CDT TUE MAR 24 2015

DRY SLOT HAS DOMINATED TODAY WITH AREAS ALONG AND WEST OF THE
JAMES VALLEY STAYING DRY. A SOLID BAND OF PRECIP WHICH AFFECTED
AREAS EAST OF THE JAMES VALLEY IS ABOUT READY TO EXIT THE CWA AND
HAVE ADJUSTED POPS ACCORDINGLY UP THROUGH 00Z...BY WHICH ALL
PRECIP SHOULD HAVE EXITED THE FORECAST AREA. WINDS ARE STILL
BLOWING PRETTY GOOD AND HAVE BEEN IN AND OUT OF LOW END ADVISORY
LEVELS ON THE SUSTAINED PART. WILL SEE A SLOW DECREASE IN WIND
SPEEDS TONIGHT BUT GRADIENT ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW WILL STILL
KEEP THEM SOMEWHAT BREEZY.

LOOKING AHEAD TO TOMORROW...STILL EXPECTING RATHER GUSTY NORTHWEST
WINDS ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE DEPARTING LOW. COULD BE CLOSE TO
WIND ADVISORY LEVELS SO WILL HAVE TO KEEP AN EYE ON THIS.
OTHERWISE...CWA LOOKS TO BE DRY BUT HAVE MAINTAINED JUST A SLIGHT
CHANCE POP ALONG THE NORTHEAST FRINGE TO ACCOUNT FOR ANY WRAP
AROUND MOISTURE FROM THE LOW. ALTHOUGH...ALL MODELS NOW SUGGEST IT
SHOULD REMAIN NORTH OF THE CWA AND WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED IF THESE
SLIGHT CHANCES WERE YANKED ON THE NEXT FORECAST CYCLE.

SFC HIGH PRESSURE THEN BEGINS BUILDING SOUTH ACROSS THE REGION
THURSDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...BRINGING CHILLY TEMPERATURES
ACROSS THE EASTERN CWA. BAROCLINIC ZONE SETS UP OVER
WESTERN/CENTRAL SD THURSDAY WITH WEAK ENERGY ALOFT. MODELS
GENERATING SOME LIGHT QPF AND HAVE INTRODUCED SOME SLIGHT CHANCE
POPS OVER THE WESTERN CWA DURING THE DAY THURSDAY.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 328 PM CDT TUE MAR 24 2015

STRONG NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT AND COOL SFC HIGH PRESSURE WILL KEEP
TEMPS ON THE COOLISH SIDE FRIDAY. SOME LIGHT PRECIP SHOWING UP IN
THE MODELS DUE TO WEAK WARM AIR ADVECTION SO SMALL POPS LOOK OK
FOR FRIDAY. ACTIVE FLOW PATTERN WILL PUSH THE RIDGE INTO THE AREA
SATURDAY WITH WARMER TEMPS REMAINING IN THE FORECAST. A STRONGER
WAVE WILL QUICKLY MOVE ACROSS THE AREA BY SATURDAY EVENING
BRINGING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS TO THE AREA. MODELS ARE GETTING A
BIT STRONGER WITH THIS FEATURE BUT ITS STILL A WAYS OUT FOR A
HIGH CONFIDENCE OF PRECIPITATION. SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL BE BREEZY
SATURDAY AHEAD OF THIS WAVE.

COOLER AND WINDY FOR SUNDAY...THEN WARMING AGAIN AS FLAT RIDGE
REBOUNDS INTO THE AREA FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY. PERIOD LOOKS TO BE
MOSTLY DRY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 726 PM CDT TUE MAR 24 2015

PRECIP CHANCES HAVE ENDED AT KATY...BUT IFR CONDITIONS PERSIST ON
SOUTHERLY BREEZES. VFR CONDITIONS ARE OCCURRING AT THE OTHER
THREE TERMINALS...INCLUDING POSSIBLY EVEN A FEW HIGH-BASED RAIN
SHOWERS OUT NEAR THE KPIR TERMINAL. A COLD FRONT WORKING FROM
CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA OVER INTO EASTERN SOUTH DAKOTA HAS SHIFTED
THE WINDS AROUND TO WEST-NORTHWEST AND BREEZY AT KPIR AND
KMBG...WHILE A SOUTH WIND CONTINUES AT KABR.

OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS...KABR AND KATY WILL SEE WINDS SWITCH
AROUND TO THE NORTHWEST AS WELL. ALSO EXPECTING SUB-VFR STRATUS
CURRENTLY IN NORTH DAKOTA TO SWEEP DOWN INTO SOUTH DAKOTA TONIGHT
INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING...WITH KMBG/KABR AND KATY MAINTAINING AT
THIS TIME THE HIGHEST PROBABILITIES OF SEEING SUB-VFR STRATUS
BEFORE THE END OF THE TAF VALID PERIOD. NORTHWEST BREEZES SHOULD
PICK UP BY WEDNESDAY MORNING...BECOMING RATHER STRONG ACROSS EASTERN
SOUTH DAKOTA.

&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...TMT
LONG TERM...SCARLETT
AVIATION...DORN







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