Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Aberdeen, SD

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FXUS63 KABR 131749 AAC

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Aberdeen SD
1149 AM CST Fri Jan 13 2017

Issued at 1145 AM CST Fri Jan 13 2017

Aviation discussion updated below for 18Z TAFs.


.SHORT TERM...(Today through Sunday Afternoon)
Issued at 320 AM CST Fri Jan 13 2017

As we reach the climatological normal coldest time of the year it
seems only fitting that temperatures have fallen into the single and
double digits below zero across all but the southwestern corner of
the cwa. Will keep Wind Chill Advisory going across much of the area
through 13Z.

The sfc high that was centered near Roberts County at 08Z has been
slowly exiting to our east. On the back side of the high, sfc temps
have been nearly steady to slowly rising. The high will move over
central MN by 12z, and then over WI by 21Z through 06Z Saturday.

Late this afternoon and tonight could bring another round of gusty
downslope winds to the traditional Sisseton Hills area along with
blowing and drifting snow. Have gone towards the higher end of
guidance for this period, like the HRRR, RAP13, and local WRF which
is resulting in gusts of 30-35kts. Will need to continue to monitor
for this potential as 925mb winds hover between 30 and 35kts. Will
start out by mentioning the potential for increased winds along with
blowing and drifting snow in the HWO and an SPS.

Otherwise, the main story will be the continued warm up. On the back
side of the high we`ll see teens and 20s even this afternoon and
Saturday as the sfc high moves back overhead, before warming into
the 20s cwa wide on Sunday as it exits east again and the 500mb
ridge across the Central Plains nudges across SD and southern MN.

.LONG TERM...(Sunday Evening through Thursday)
Issued at 320 AM CST Fri Jan 13 2017

Consensus solutions keep the sfc low pressure system on Monday just
over the far southeastern cwa with the bulk of the precip farther
south and east. However, the latest 0z run of the ECMWF now brings
the system farther north and west putting the whole eastern cwa in
the bullseye on Monday night and Tuesday morning. Would not be
surprised to see this trend spread to other model solutions over the
next couple of days as much of the energy is concentrated in the
closed off upper low which sits over SD/NE. Temperatures will still
be cool enough to keep precip all snow at the start of the work

Higher heights aloft by Wednesday, coupled with sfc south to
southwesterly flow will usher in some warmer temperatures. The
potential for temps well above freezing will be considerably
moderated by existing snow cover. Therefore, forecast highs still
top out in the 30s through Friday.

More shortwave energy ejects out of the next upper trough into the
Plains on Friday. With temps likely above freezing this will set the
stage for some rain/snow potential at the end of the week.


.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Saturday Afternoon)
Issued at 1145 AM CST Fri Jan 13 2017

Clouds and snow continue to depart to the east, with KATY having
ended -SN. CIGs are VFR and will continue to see clouds push east,
departing KABR later this afternoon and in KATY shortly after 18Z.
This will give way to generally SKC conditions through the
remainder of the TAF forecast period, also including KPIR and KMBG
as well. Breezy/gusty southerly winds this afternoon will subside
by early evening.




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