Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Aberdeen, SD

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FXUS63 KABR 200531 AAC

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Aberdeen SD
1131 PM CST Fri Jan 19 2018

Issued at 1126 PM CST Fri Jan 19 2018

06z aviation discussion updated below.

UPDATE Issued at 859 PM CST Fri Jan 19 2018

Adjusted cloud cover a little based on satellite along with
adjusting temperatures down a few degrees based on current trends.


.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Monday)
Issued at 209 PM CST Fri Jan 19 2018

Winds have all shifted to the northwest behind a weak front this
afternoon. As winds became breezier, mixing increased and some
locations, like Aberdeen and Sisseton, shot up to 50 degrees...with
a 10 degree jump in an hour! With the ridge still overhead for the
first part of Saturday, expect temps to top out in the 40s as mixing
is slightly weaker.

The main forecast challenge remains the low pressure system that
will be crossing the Plains Saturday through Monday. A warm air
advection band will develop out ahead of the main system Saturday
afternoon. However, it will have to overcome some significant low to
mid level dry air. Therefore, left out pop mention until Sat evening
and continued to cut off QPF farther east. Overall, models have
taken another jog to the south and east. This has resulted in even
lower snow accumulations. Currently, a 2 inch or greater line
extends from Fort Pierre to Watertown with highest amounts to the
south and east. The 12z ECMWF, however, is even farther south and
other models may catch on in later runs.

Winds will be breezy behind the low on Sunday night and Monday
across eastern SD. Again, though, the strength of the winds will be
affected by the exact track of the low. Snow will be wetter and
heavier than a typical January winter storm so expect blowing snow
to be restricted to when snow is falling.

.LONG TERM...(Monday Night through Friday)
Issued at 209 PM CST Fri Jan 19 2018

Monday night on will feature mainly dry weather. For areas that do
get snow, winds should be be light enough to limit much in the way
of blowing snow. Temperatures will top out in the upper 20s and 30s
through the period. A sizable ridge will move overhead around mid-
week, and slide to our east Friday morning. The next mention of any
precipitation is Thursday into Thursday night, mainly over our
northern counties, and then Friday ad Friday night across much of
the area as the next sfc low shifts into the Central Plains states.
There is plenty of uncertainty with the timing and strength, so
nothing higher than chance pops sounds reasonable at this time as
the storm shifts off to the Great Lakes region Friday night.


.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Saturday Night)
Issued at 1126 PM CST Fri Jan 19 2018

VFR conditions can be expected through this evening for all
terminals. A storm system southwest of the region will bring low
end VFR cigs by the late afternoon hours for the terminal of KPIR.
Light rain, changing over to snow will be possible for KPIR after
0Z Saturday.




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