Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Aberdeen, SD

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FXUS63 KABR 090542
AFDABR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
1242 AM CDT WED JUL 9 2014

.UPDATE...

UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION FOR THE 06Z TAFS BELOW.

NO CHANGES TO THE FORECAST THIS EVENING. CLOUDS HAVE MAINLY
CLEARED AND WINDS ARE DROPPING QUICKLY AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES
OVERHEAD. NOW JUST MONITORING THE SMOKE PLUME THAT HAS SPREAD OVER
THE DAKOTAS...ORIGINATING FROM FAR NORTHERN CANADA. SOME LOCATIONS
ACROSS NORTH DAKOTA HAVE HAD VISIBILITY DROP AS LOW AS 4 MILES DUE
TO SMOKE. LOOKS TO BE MUCH THINNER OVER OUR CWA...BUT WILL
CONTINUE TO MONITOR...MAINLY FOR AVIATION PURPOSES.

&&
.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT

RADAR REMAINS QUIET THIS AFTERNOON THOUGH CLOUDS HAVE INCREASED
ACROSS THE AREA. STILL JUST ENOUGH INSTABILITY TO LEAVE A MENTION
OF SHOWERS ACROSS THE EAST FOR A COUPLE OF HOURS LATE THIS
AFTERNOON. TONIGHT..HIGH PRESSURE WILL SETTLE OVER THE REGION
BRINGING DRIER CONDITIONS THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING WHEN IT EXITS
TO THE EAST. A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE OFF THE ROCKIES
THU AFTERNOON. MODELS HAVE BEEN A LITTLE INCONSISTENT WITH FORCING
PLACEMENT ON THURSDAY EVENING/NIGHT. BOTH THE ECMWF AND THE GFS
INDICATE A DEVELOPING LLJ AHEAD OF THE TROUGH ACROSS THE EASTERN
CWA. THE GFS ALSO MOVES A STRONG SHORTWAVE ACROSS THE NORTHEAST
CWA WHICH WOULD HELP TRIGGER SOME TSTORMS. AT THE SAME TIME THE
ECMWF BEGINS TO FOCUS ANY MOISTURE AND ENERGY JUST NORTH OF A WARM
FRONT DRAPED ACROSS KS WHICH WOULD KEEP THIS CWA A LITTLE DRIER
AFTER 00Z. DUE TO THE UNCERTAINTIES KEPT SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE
POPS ACROSS MUCH OF THE CWA THROUGH THU NIGHT.

.LONG TERM...FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY

STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY IN THE EXTENDED REGARDING PRECIP CHANCES
EARLY ON...THEN THE POTENTIAL PATTERN SHIFT TO MUCH COOLER TEMPS
FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK. HINTS OF A FRONTAL BOUNDARY OVER THE AREA ON
FRIDAY...BUT WITH DIFFERING TIMING NOTED AMONGST THE MODELS.
GENERALLY ACCEPTED ALLBLEND POPS FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. GFS AND EC
SHOWING A WEAK WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE SLIDING ACROSS SATURDAY INTO
SATURDAY NIGHT AS WELL. BIGGER STORY IN THE EXTENDED WILL BE
DETERMINING HOW AMPLIFIED THE UPPER PATTERN GETS EARLY NEXT WEEK
WITH WHAT APPEARS TO BE A TROUGH DEVELOPING OVER THE GREAT LAKES.
ALL LONG RANGE MODELS SHOWING A TROUGH OF COOL AIR DEVELOPING OVER
THE GREAT LAKES...THEY JUST VARY A BIT IN AMPLITUDE. 12Z GFS HAS
ACTUALLY TRENDED A LITTLE CLOSER TO THE SHARPER EC/GEM SOLUTIONS.
DOWNWARD TRENDS IN TEMPS MAY BE IN STORE FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...
06Z TAFS FOR THE KABR...KATY...KPIR AND KMBG TERMINALS

HIGH PRESSURE IS SITUATED OVER THE REGION...ALLOWING FOR LIGHT
AND VARIABLE WINDS AND CLEAR SKIES. WINDS WILL REMAIN BELOW 12
KTS THROUGH THE DAY WEDNESDAY AS WELL...BUT WILL GRADUALLY RETURN
FROM THE EAST/SOUTHEAST. SMOKE FROM FIRES IN FAR NORTHERN CANADA
CONTINUE TO SPREAD SOUTH...AND EXTEND INTO THE DAKOTAS. OBS
ACROSS THE AREA NOW DETECTING CIGS AROUND 8-9K FEET ASSOCIATED
WITH THIS SMOKE...AND INCLUDED THIS MENTION IN THE TAFS. AT THE
SFC...THE SMOKE REMAINS THIN AND NO SIGNIFICANT REDUCTION TO
VISIBILITY IS OCCURRING IN SD ALTHOUGH KABR AND KATY ARE NOW SHOWING
7SM. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR HOWEVER...AND ADJUST THE TAFS IF IT
LOOKS LIKE FURTHER VISIBILITY REDUCTIONS MAY OCCUR.

&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$
UPDATE...FOWLE
SHORT TERM...WISE
LONG TERM...TMT
AVIATION...FOWLE

WEATHER.GOV/ABERDEEN




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