Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Aberdeen, SD

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FXUS63 KABR 280120 AAA
AFDABR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
820 PM CDT SAT SEP 27 2014

.UPDATE...
FORECAST IS WORKING OUT OKAY SO NO MAJOR UPDATES PLANNED.

&&
.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT

COLD FRONT WILL GRADUALLY MOVE SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE DAKOTAS
OVERNIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY AND BE POSITIONED ACROSS THE CWA BY
SUNDAY AFTERNOON. A FEW MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW ISO/WDLY SCT
ACTIVITY FIRING UP ALONG THE FRONT LATE IN THE AFTERNOON...WITH
EVEN SOME HI-RES MODELS SHOWING A FEW SHOWERS. SOUNDINGS ARE
PRETTY DRY THOUGH SO IT MAY BE TOUGH TO GET ANYTHING NOTEWORTHY.
NONETHELESS...HAVE ADDED SLIGHT CHANCE POPS LATE SUNDAY AFTERNOON.
WILL BE AWAITING ARRIVAL OF NEXT STORM SYSTEM WHICH MOVES INTO
WESTERN CWA MONDAY NIGHT. MODELS ARE SLOWING SYSTEM DOWN A
BIT...WHICH WAS EXPECTED. PREFER THE SLOWER EC SOLUTION FOR THIS
FORECAST PACKAGE. IF THIS SOLUTION APPEARS TO BE MOST LIKELY TO
VERIFY...THEN POPS ARE LIKELY TOO FAR EAST FROM THE 06Z TO 12Z
TUESDAY RANGE.

.LONG TERM...TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY
GOOD AGREEMENT AND CONSISTENCY WITH THE MODELS WITH THE UPCOMING
WEATHER SYSTEMS TO AFFECT THE REGION. FIRST WE WILL HAVE A STRONG
SURFACE LOW PRESSURE AREA IN WESTERN SD TUESDAY MORNING LIFTING
NORTHWARD. STRONG DEEP LAYER LIFT IN ADVANCE OF THIS LOW PRESSURE
AREA ALONG WITH GOOD MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY WILL BRING NUMEROUS
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE CWA. THIS WILL MOVE NORTHEAST
THROUGH THE DAY AND NIGHT AS THE SURFACE LOW PRESSURE AREA MOVES
INTO SOUTHERN CANADA INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING. THE REGION WILL THEN
BE UNDER BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK
WITH DEEP NORTHWEST FLOW PREVAILING OVER THE REGION. THE MODELS
SHOW A COUPLE MORE SHORT WAVE TROUGHS DROPPING INTO AND OVER OUR
REGION FROM THE NORTHWEST THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. THUS...KEPT
SOME SLIGHT CHANCE/CHANCES OF SHOWERS IN THE FORECAST THROUGH THE
END OF THE WEEK. WE COULD HAVE A BREAK IN THE SHOWERS FOR WEDNESDAY
AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT BETWEEN SYSTEMS. KEPT SLIGHT CHANCES IN FOR
NOW. OTHERWISE...TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO BE SLIGHTLY ABOVE
NORMAL FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY AND THEN FALL BACK TO BELOW
NORMAL FOR THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY AS COOLER CANADIAN AIR
DOMINATES. FRIDAY MAY ONLY HAVE HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 50S
ACROSS THE CWA.

&&

.AVIATION...
00Z TAFS FOR THE KABR...KATY...KPIR AND KMBG TERMINALS

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT ALL TERMINALS THROUGH MOST OF TNT.
HOWEVER BEHIND A FRONTAL BOUNDARY KMBG MAY SEE SOME MVFR FOG AND
LOW CIGS TOWARD MORNING. CONFIDENCE ON LOW CLOUDS/FOG ONLY
MODERATE AT BEST FOR NOW.


&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$
UPDATE...TDK
SHORT TERM...TMT
LONG TERM...MOHR
AVIATION...TDK

WEATHER.GOV/ABERDEEN





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