532
FXUS63 KABR 072045
AFDABR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Aberdeen SD
345 PM CDT Mon Jul 7 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Chances for showers and thunderstorms will increase to 50-80
  percent later this morning into the afternoon. Some storms
  could be severe and capable of producing large hail and damaging
  winds. There is a Slight Risk (level 2 of 5) for severe weather
  across parts of central and northeast South Dakota.

- Additional chances for thunderstorms and the potential for severe
  weather Thursday night into Friday.

- Seasonal temperatures are expected during the 7 day forecast,
  with the exception of Wednesday and Thursday, when high
  temperatures could bump back up into the low to mid 90s
  throughout and west of the James River valley.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 345 PM CDT Mon Jul 7 2025

Scattered showers and thunderstorms continue to move through
portions of the forecast area this afternoon. A few strong to severe
storms will remain possible through the remainder of the afternoon
into the early evening as all this activity shifts east and
southeast. Large hail and damaging winds remain the main threats
with the strongest cells. A tornado or two could still be possible,
mainly east of the James Valley through late afternoon. All this
active weather looks to exit our forecast area later this evening
and by the early overnight period.

With thicker morning cloud cover with the associated convection that
was in place, it has kept a lid so to speak on convection really
taking off so far this afternoon, especially across our eastern
zones. Instability remains "muted", but still around 1000-1500 J/kg
across our eastern and southern zones. Where sunshine has returned,
across our western zones, MLCAPE values are a bit more higher closer
to 2000 J/kg. In those zones, deep layer shear is a bit more
favorable as well ranging from 35-45 kts. Vsbl satl shows agitated
CU fields across Dewey County and parts of our south-central zones,
along and south of US Hwy 14. Convection has fired out of that field
in Dewey County. Our far southeast zones, around the Watertown and
Ortonville areas and points south and east is also seeing some
active convection. These will potentially be areas to monitor for
further development going through the rest of the afternoon.

There remains a north to south oriented sfc trough with a cold front
draped from northeast to southwest across south central ND into the
northwest corner of SD. So, with the given environment still in
place across our CWA through the afternoon and early evening, would
anticipate further development of convection as these sfc features
slowly shift east and southeast through our area. CAM solutions more
or less show convection hanging around through the remainder of the
afternoon in our eastern zones and back to the west in the
aforementioned areas of central SD, but they aren`t convinced that
widespread robust convection will get going. So, we`ll just have to
continue to monitor trends over the next few hours, but it would
appear that the areas to watch more closely will be across our south
central zones and our far southeast zones, south and east of the
Watertown area. SPC continues to highlight our CWA with 3 different
levels of severe weather outlooks, from a Marginal Risk (level 1 of
5) to a Slight Risk (level 2 of 5) to an Enhanced Risk (level 3 of
5) through the remainder of the day into tonight. The main threats
will be large hail and damaging winds with some of these stronger
cells that develop.

The mid level trough, the upper level mechanism responsible for this
current active weather today is progged to track east and away from
our region overnight. The aforementioned sfc cold front will be slow
to track southeast through our forecast area and not clearing our
southern zones until after daybreak Tuesday. Sfc high pressure will
begin to nose into our area leading to a more drier and stable day.
Cooler temperatures are expected across our eastern zones with high
temperatures behind held just below the 80 degree mark. Farther
west, mid level heights start to increase in response to a
strengthening mid level high located across the Desert Southwest part
of the CONUS. Afternoon readings may top out close to 90 degrees
across our west river zones. A bit of a short term heat bubble will
remain in place Wednesday into Thursday with high temps in the low
to mid 90s along and west of the James Valley. The active pattern
looks to quickly return by the latter half of the work week.
Southerly flow returns on Wednesday as humidity levels creep back up
as a ridge riding shortwave rounds over the top of the ridge axis in
place across the Northern High Plains. This should touch off another
round of potentially severe convection Wednesday afternoon and
evening. A more significant upper wave is progged to track through
the Northern Plains on the latter half of Thursday into early
Friday. This disturbance will have potential to produce severe
convection Thursday afternoon and Thursday night. At this point, the
upcoming weekend looks more quiet and dry.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY/...
Issued at 1243 PM CDT Mon Jul 7 2025

Terminals KABR,KATY,KPIR,KMBG

Scattered showers and thunderstorms continue to move eastward
across parts of central and northeast South Dakota and west
central Minnesota. So far, the only terminals that have seen
activity today has been KPIR/KMBG. That will change going through
the afternoon hours as KABR/KATY will be impacted by storms. Have
included VCTS mention at these TAF sites through the afternoon
with TEMPO groups targeting more impactful time frames. MVFR cigs
will be possible during SHRA`s/TSRA`s with vsby`s down potentially
down to MVFR/IFR at times. Farther west, KPIR/KMBG with see VCTS
activity through mid afternoon with TEMPO groups for TSRA`s. This
activity should be diminishing and coming to an end by the late
afternoon hours.

&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...None.
MN...None.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Vipond
AVIATION...Vipond