Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Aberdeen, SD

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FXUS63 KABR 251623 AAA
AFDABR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
1123 AM CDT MON AUG 25 2014

.UPDATE...
DIURNAL TEMPERATURE TRENDS COMING IN A LITTLE COOLER THAN THE
ORIGINAL FORECAST...SO DROPPED HIGHS COUPLE OF DEGREES THIS
AFTERNOON. OTHERWISE NO OTHER MAJOR CHANGES PLANNED.

&&
.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY
UPPER LOW CONTINUES TO SPIN NORTH OF THE AREA ALONG THE
INTERNATIONAL BORDER AND IS BEGINNING TO SHOW AN EASTWARD
PROGRESSION. MODELS INDICATE SCT TO BKN CLOUD COVER WILL AFFECT
NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA TODAY. WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS WILL
BECOME BREEZY WITH TEMPS BELOW NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. THE
POCKET OF COOL AIR ALOFT ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER LOW IS THE
REASON FOR THE COOL TEMPERATURES.

SFC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION THROUGH TONIGHT AND
EVENTUALLY CENTERS ITSELF OVERHEAD BY 12Z TUESDAY. COOL AIR
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS HIGH SO MORNING LOWS ON TUESDAY WILL BE A BIT
ON THE CHILLY SIDE WITH MANY LOCATIONS DROPPING INTO THE 40S. HAVE
DECIDED TO BACK OFF QUITE A BIT ON PRECIP CHANCES THROUGH THE
SHORT TERM PERIOD AS MODELS ARE TRENDING DRIER WITH THE SFC HIGH
IN PLACE.

.LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY
THE EXTENDED PERIOD OPENS WITH MID/UPPER LEVEL CONFLUENT STEERING
FLOW AS NORTHERN JET STREAM AND SOUTHERN JET STREAM AIR CURRENTS
CONVERGE ACROSS THE REGION. BY LATE IN THE PERIOD...MODELS STILL
SHOWCASE UPPER FLOW RE-CONSOLIDATING TO MORE OF A
WEST-SOUTHWESTERLY TRAJECTORY IN RESPONSE TO LONGWAVE TROF ENERGY
APPROACHING THE REGION FROM THE WEST. THE ECMWF PRETTY MUCH KEEPS
THINGS DRY OVER THE CWA UNTIL SUNDAY...WHEN THIS WESTERN CONUS LOW
PRESSURE ENERGY IS WORKING ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS.

TEMPERATURES...EVEN IN THE ECMWF...STILL SHOW A GENERAL WARMING
TREND BACK INTO THE MID/UPPER 70S AND 80S BY THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...
12Z TAFS FOR THE KABR...KATY...KPIR AND KMBG TERMINALS

SCT-BKN LOWER END VFR STRATUS BECOMING STRATO-CU LATER TODAY IS
EXPECTED AT KABR AND KMBG. GOOD VFR IS EXPECTED AT KPIR/KATY. ALL
TERMINALS WILL BE INTO SOME BREEZY/WINDY WESTERLY WINDS TODAY AS
WELL.

&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$
UPDATE...SERR
SHORT TERM...TMT
LONG TERM...DORN
AVIATION...DORN

WEATHER.GOV/ABERDEEN




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