Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Aberdeen, SD

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000
FXUS63 KABR 200532 AAA
AFDABR

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Aberdeen SD
1232 AM CDT FRI MAY 20 2016

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1232 AM CDT FRI MAY 20 2016

06z aviation discussion updated below.

UPDATE Issued at 858 PM CDT THU MAY 19 2016

No changes planned to the tonight period. The chances for
precipitation (thunderstorms) across the western zones overnight
tonight looks pretty good right now as convection is noted
developing/increasing in areal coverage across western south
dakota, west of this cwa at this time. Convection is moving
northeast expanding on the leading edge of +6c to +8c 850hpa
dewpoint progs where higher dewpoint air is noted intersecting the
nose of a strengthening low level jet (presently 35 to 40 knots at
0.5km agl). Based off the behavior of a few of these discrete
cells over in the neighboring cwa, can not rule out a storm or two
becoming strong to perhaps severe overnight over the missouri
river valley of this cwa, as they ride along the nose of the low
level jet.

UPDATE Issued at 619 PM CDT THU MAY 19 2016

See below for an updated aviation forecast discussion.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Saturday Night)
Issued at 300 PM CDT THU MAY 19 2016

Still anticipating the development of a low level jet later tonight
over central SD, with hi-res models still trying to indicate some
widely scattered showers or storms within steeper mid level lapse
rates and lower end mid level instability. Will keep slight chance
POPs in the forecast for the overnight hours over the western CWA.

For Friday, soundings are not really giving much confidence in
overall isolated shower or thunderstorm threat. In fact, if
anything, it may be more of a sprinkle scenario sort of like today.
Have therefore removed pops for Friday afternoon and just went with
an isolated sprinkles mention.

Temperatures during the short range will be in the 70s, with temps
trying to get close to 80 degrees by Saturday.

.LONG TERM...(Sunday through Thursday)
Issued at 300 PM CDT THU MAY 19 2016

An upper level ridge will exit to the east of the region on
Sunday...with a trough remaining west of the plains states through
the remainder of the period. Several shortwaves will affect the
area...the strongest moving through Sunday night into Monday
morning. A surface frontal boundary will be over the far western
part of the state Sunday morning...then will slowly make its way
across the state through Monday morning. Breezy to windy conditions
are likely ahead of the boundary through much of the day Sunday. May
see a decent chance for strong to severe storms Sunday evening into
Sunday night as the front tracks across the CWA in association with
a 40 to 50 knot low level jet...1000-1500 J/KG of most unstable
cape...and 35 to 50 knots of shear. The system pushes east on
Monday. Another weak boundary moves in on Tuesday...then becomes
nearly stationary over the area...keeping off and on precipitation
chances through the remainder of the long term period.

High temperatures will be in the upper 70s to lower 80s on
Sunday...then will see a gradual cooling trend through the
period...down to highs in the lower 70s on Thursday. Overnight lows
will be mainly in the 40s to lower 50s.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Friday Night)
Issued at 1232 AM CDT FRI MAY 20 2016

VFR conditions should prevail across the area through the TAF
period. Fifteen to 20 knot southerly winds will increase back into
the 20 to 30 knot range on Friday.

&&

.ABR Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...Mohr
SHORT TERM...TMT
LONG TERM...Parkin
AVIATION...Mohr



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