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000
FXUS63 KABR 212036
AFDABR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Aberdeen SD
336 PM CDT Thu Sep 21 2017

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Friday Afternoon)
Issued at 336 PM CDT Thu Sep 21 2017

High pressure has now slid well off to the east, with low pressure
centered over Colorado, with a boundary extending from it northward
over western South Dakota. This boundary will push very slowly
eastward tonight to becoming situated from northwest Minnesota to
south central South Dakota. Instability looks to increase across the
far eastern CWA and into Minnesota later this evening into the
overnight hours, along with a developing 45-55 knot LLJ. May see
some strong thunderstorms develop at this intersection, mainly over
the far northeastern CWA around or after midnight. Quiet conditions
are expected during the daytime hours on Friday as the LLJ
diminishes and the shear weakens.

Will see a decent temperature gradient both tonight and Friday, with
much cooler air behind the front. Lows tonight will range from the
upper 40s over north central South Dakota, to the upper 60s over
east central Minnesota. High temperatures on Friday will range from
the upper 50s over north central South Dakota, to the upper 80s over
northeastern South Dakota and west central Minnesota.


.LONG TERM...(Friday Evening through Thursday)
Issued at 336 PM CDT Thu Sep 21 2017

Fairly good agreement over the long term pattern which features a
western CONUS upper low/trough and an eastern CONUS ridge. This puts
us in southwest flow aloft with several distinct waves lifting into
or just southeast of the CWA before the upper low opens and lifts
over the area Monday. In the low levels at the start of the period
we should be on the northwest side of the surface trough. That means
each wave will generate generally overrunning precipitation so have
minimized the mention of thunder for the most part, outside the
initial round of severe weather that develops friday night. 850mb
temperatures remain between +6 and +14C for the extended, so high
temperatures will be stuck in the 50s and 60s for the next few days.
There does looks like, with high pressure overhead and despite a
trough overhead, no waves passing through, that we will see ideal
radiational conditions Wednesday morning. Thus, lowered
temperatures a notch below blended guidance. Otherwise no
significant changes over blended guidance within the extended.


&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Friday Afternoon)
Issued at 1225 PM CDT Thu Sep 21 2017

VFR conditions will prevail across the area through midday Friday.
Scattered showers and thunderstorms are possible across the far
northeastern CWA tonight, but at this time it does not appear that
any TAF sites will be affected.

&&


.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...None.
MN...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Parkin
LONG TERM...Connelly
AVIATION...Parkin