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000
FXUS63 KABR 021150
AFDABR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
550 AM CST MON DEC 2 2013

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY
THE NEAR TERM CONSISTS OF A VERY CHALLENGING FORECAST WITH LITTLE
CONSISTENCY AMONG MODEL GUIDANCE. HAVE RELIED UPON THE HIGH
RESOLUTION MODELS OF THE ARW/NMM...THE NSSL WRF...AND OUR LOCAL
VERSION OF WRF.

A WARM AIR ADVECTION BAND OF PCPN IS CURRENTLY MOVING ACROSS THE
CENTRAL AND NORTHEASTERN PORTION OF THE CWA. SURFACE TEMPERATURES
ARE COOL ENOUGH THAT POCKETS OF FREEZING ARE IS OCCURRING...THUS
THE NEED FOR A FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY. THIS PCPN SHOULD EXIT THE
CWA BY MID MORNING...HOWEVER WILL MAINTAIN POPS IN THE EXTREME NE
CWA INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS PER THE HIRES NMM.

SEVERAL MODELS SUGGEST AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE TRACKING EAST SOUTHEASTWARD
ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE A FEW
HOURS OF MIXED PCPN...AND MODERATE SNOWFALL OVER NORTH CENTRAL SD.
THE NAM/GFS BOTH SHOW A POCKET OF INTENSE QPF...WHICH APPEARS TO BE
DRIVEN INSTABILITY BY A POTENTIAL DRY SLOT. IF THIS ACTUALLY
OCCURS...THEN SNOWFALL AMOUNTS WOULD BE GREATLY UNDERDONE. OVERALL
THERE IS ENOUGH CONVENING EVIDENCE TO WARRANT A WINTER STORM WATCH
FOR NORTH CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA...OVER TO WEST CENTRAL MINNESOTA.

AS THE SURFACE LOW DRAWS COLDER AIR INTO THE REGION ON
TUESDAY...THERE MAYBE A BRIEF PERIOD OF MIXED PCPN OUTSIDE OF THE
CURRENT WINTER STORM WATCH. THESE LOCATIONS COULD BE ADDED INTO A
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY AT SOME POINT.

THERE IS SOME QUESTION AS TO HOW LONG PCPN WILL LAST. THE GFS/NAM
SHOW DRIER AIR MOVING INTO THE REGION BY WEDNESDAY. THE ECMWF
STILL MAINTAINS A WIDE AREA OF PCPN ACROSS MOST OF THE NORTHERN
PLAINS. WILL MAINTAIN A CHANCE POP FOR NOW.

.LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY

THERE IS GOOD DETERMINISTIC MODEL CONSISTENCY THROUGH MOST OF THE
EXTENDED THANKS TO THE DEPARTURE OF THE AS YET TO BE WELL RESOLVED
STORM SYSTEM. THE MAIN FEATURE...A SLOW MOVING AREA OF ARCTIC
HIGH PRESSURE...NOSES OUT OF WESTERN CANADA WEDNESDAY NIGHT. H85
TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY START OFF FALLING DURING THE SHORT TERM
TIMEFRAME. H85 TEMPERATURES WILL BOTTOM OUT AROUND -20 TO
-24C...ROUGHLY BETWEEN 1 TO 2 STANDARD DEVIATIONS BELOW
CLIMO...WHERE IT WILL REMAIN FOR MOST OF THE PERIOD. A STORM
SYSTEM MOVING THROUGH THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PLAINS WILL DRAW SOME
MID/UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE INTO THE REGION FOR NEXT
WEEKEND...HOWEVER VERY DRY/COLD LOW LEVEL AIR WILL HELP LIMIT THE
NORTHERN EXTENT TO ANY SNOWFALL.

&&

.AVIATION...
12Z TAFS FOR THE KABR...KATY...KPIR AND KMBG TERMINALS

FREEZING RAIN WILL PASS THROUGH ABERDEEN EARLY IN THE TAF PERIOD.
OTHERWISE MID LEVEL CLOUD COVER WILL EVENTUALLY CLEAR THE AREA.
INCREASED CLOUDS DOWN TO IFR WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH IFR SNOW FOR
KMBG TUESDAY AM. THESE LOWER CIGS/VISBYS WILL EVENTUALLY MOVE INTO
THE OTHER TERMINALS TUESDAY. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE THIS
AM...WITH A MORE SOUTHERLY TREND FOR KATY. NORTHERLY WILL BECOME
THE PREDOMINANT WIND CONDITIONS THROUGH THE DAY AND INTO
TONIGHT...PICKING UP IN SPEED.

&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON
     FOR BROWN-CAMPBELL-CORSON-DEWEY-EDMUNDS-FAULK-MCPHERSON-
     POTTER-WALWORTH.

     FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM CST THIS MORNING FOR BROWN-DAY-
     MARSHALL-MCPHERSON-ROBERTS.

     WINTER STORM WATCH FROM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY
     AFTERNOON FOR DAY-MARSHALL-ROBERTS.

MN...FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM CST THIS MORNING FOR BIG STONE-
     TRAVERSE.

     WINTER STORM WATCH FROM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY
     AFTERNOON FOR BIG STONE-TRAVERSE.

&&

$$
SHORT TERM...SD
LONG TERM...CONNELLY
AVIATION...CONNELLY

WEATHER.GOV/ABERDEEN