Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Aberdeen, SD

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FXUS63 KABR 170529 AAC
AFDABR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
1229 AM CDT WED SEP 17 2014

.UPDATE...
SEE UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.


&&
.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT
A WEAK TROUGH WILL PASS MOVE THROUGH THE REGION TONIGHT. THIS
SHOULD HAVE LITTLE EFFECT EXCEPT ON WIND DIRECTION. BUILDING UPPER
LEVEL RIDGING WILL DOMINATE THE SHORT TERM WITH INCREASING TEMPS
THROUGH THE PERIOD. A STRONGER LOW PRESSURE TROUGH WILL MOVE OFF
THE ROCKIES THU NIGHT. AHEAD OF THE TROUGH A 40 KT LLJ WILL SET UP
POSSIBLY KICKING OFF SOME STORMS EARLY FRI MORNING ACROSS THE
EASTERN CWA.


.LONG TERM...FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY
THERE IS REASONABLE AGREEMENT AMONG MODELS WITH THE EVOLUTION OF
THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW PATTERN ACROSS THE CONUS THROUGH THE PERIOD.
THERE ARE MINOR ISSUES WITH THE INTENSITY OF A S/W CROSSING THE
REGION FRIDAY NIGHT/SATURDAY WHICH LEADS TO LOW FORECASTER
CONFIDENCE FOR POPS. FRIDAY IS STARTING TO LOOK DRY EVEN WITH
FRONTAL BOUNDARY MOVING THROUGH THE REGION. THE GFS/ECMWF ARE
SHOWING TEMPS AT 700 MB OF +12C...WHICH SHOULD CAP OFF CONVECTION.

DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED BEYOND SATURDAY WITH SEASONAL
TEMPERATURES IN THE 70S FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK.


&&

.AVIATION...
06Z TAFS FOR THE KABR...KATY...KPIR AND KMBG TERMINALS

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE AREA OVERNIGHT AND THROUGH
THE DAY WEDNESDAY.


&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$
SHORT TERM...WISE
LONG TERM...SD
AVIATION...PARKIN

WEATHER.GOV/ABERDEEN





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