Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Aberdeen, SD

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FXUS63 KABR 250555 AAA
AFDABR

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Aberdeen SD
1255 AM CDT WED MAY 25 2016

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1254 AM CDT WED MAY 25 2016

06z aviation discussion updated below.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Thursday Night)
Issued at 246 PM CDT TUE MAY 24 2016

A fairly active twenty four hours coming up. For tnt low res as
well as convection allowing models prog storms developing over the
western high plains of Nebraska/South Dakota...then riding the LLJ
east through the night. Other than an isolated strong to severe
storm am not expecting much other than some potential heavy rain.
Also there is a weak sfc low in far northeast South Dakota with
some towering cu/moderate cu developing over western Minnesota.
This activity may affect my far northeast cwa so have thrown in a
slight chc pop for the evening.

On Wednesday the showers/storms should move mostly out of the area
by late morning or early afternoon. Strong diabatic heating in the
late afternoon across the cwa could result in some pretty decent ml
capes...especially if near 60 dewpoints can be realized.  Low level
shear is weak and deep layer shear is marginal so perhaps isolated
pulse type svr could materialize...but then die off quickly by mid
evening.  Most of the activity ends overnight Wednesday with
Thursday likely to be tranquil and dry.  Temperatures through the
period will average out near to slightly above normal.

&&

.LONG TERM...(Friday through Tuesday)
Issued at 246 PM CDT TUE MAY 24 2016

An active weather pattern is expected through the holiday weekend
and into the early part of next week.

The period begins with an upper level trough of low pressure over
the central plains. This systems will slowly lift northward through
Saturday night with shower and thunderstorms possible. Severe storms
are not expected with this shortwave.

Sunday could be dry through a good portion of the day. If skies
become clear on Sunday...than a frontal passage late in the day
could set the stage for strong to severe storms. The GFS is
suggesting MU-Cape values could exceed 4K J/KG. As of now...the GFS
only shows 20 knots of 0-6 km bulk shear. Will not get too excited
about severe weather as this event is a few days away. Additional
showers and thunderstorms look possible Monday and Tuesday as
shortwaves continue to impact the region.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Wednesday Night)
Issued at 1254 AM CDT WED MAY 25 2016

Showers and thunderstorms are expected to lift northeast across the
region through the early morning hours affecting all locations.
Otherwise...expect vfr conditions through the entire taf period. A
new round of showers and thunderstorms is expected on Wednesday
during the afternoon and evening possibly affecting the taf
locations.

&&

.ABR Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...Mohr
SHORT TERM...TDK
LONG TERM...SD
AVIATION...Mohr



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