Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Aberdeen, SD

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000
FXUS63 KABR 021135 AAA
AFDABR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
635 AM CDT TUE JUN 2 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 421 AM CDT TUE JUN 2 2015

MORNING CONVECTION HAS MAINLY BEEN LIMITED TO NORTH DAKOTA...IN LINE
WITH THE LOW LEVEL JET. AS THE JET REORIENTS SOUTHWEST TO
NORTHEAST...EXPECT BETTER COVERAGE OF LIGHT SHOWERS/ELEVATED
CONVECTION ALONG AND EAST OF THE JAMES VALLEY.

MAIN FOCUS IS ON SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL. ELEVATED CONVECTION AND
CIRRUS IS EXPECTED TO HAVE PUSHED OUT OF THE EASTERN CWA BY MID DAY.
STRATUS IS CURRENTLY CONFINED TO SOUTHERN NEBRASKA/IOWA.
THUS...ANTICIPATE AMPLE SUNSHINE TODAY IN WHAT CONTINUES TO BE A
FAVORABLE CAPE/SHEAR ENVIRONMENT FOR SEVERE STORMS...PARTICULARLY
ALONG THE MISSOURI VALLEY. THE ENVIRONMENT IS NOT CLEAR CUT HOWEVER
AS WE WILL SEE 700MB TEMPERATURES WARM INTO THE +8 TO +11C RANGE.
PASSAGE OF THE SHORTWAVE HAS ALREADY OCCURRED AS WELL...WITH NEUTRAL
SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT FOR THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING. LAST...WE ARE UNDER
AN UNFAVORABLE JET PLACEMENT WITH Q VECTOR DIVERGENCE ACROSS THE
NORTHERN 2/3 OF THE CWA.

THAT SAID...HIGH RESOLUTION GUIDANCE STILL DOES DEVELOP
AFTERNOON/EVENING CONVECTION...THOUGH THE EXACT LOCATION AND MODE IS
UP FOR DEBATE RIGHT NOW. WILL CONTINUE MENTION OF SEVERE AS ANY
STORMS THAT FORM WILL EXIST WITHIN A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR STORM
SCALE ROTATION.

WE WILL SEE A 500MB WAVE MOVE THROUGH TONIGHT...THOUGH WITH NO LOW
LEVEL JET SUPPORT. HIGH PRESSURE NOSES DOWN OUT OF CANADA FOR
WEDNESDAY RESULTING IN DRY CONDITIONS. AS THE HIGH MOVES TO THE
EAST...WE WILL SEE RETURN FLOW AHEAD OF A SHORTWAVE FOR MID DAY
THURSDAY...WITH PROFILES SUGGESTING WE WILL BE WEAKLY CAPPED UNDER A
LIGHT SHEAR ENVIRONMENT.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 421 AM CDT TUE JUN 2 2015

UPPER RIDGING OVER THE PLAINS AT THE START OF THE PERIOD WILL BE
DAMPENED BY A SERIES OF SHORTWAVES RIDING OVER THE RIDGE AND
PERSISTENT SFC LOW PRESSURE. SHOWERS AND TSTORMS WILL BE PREVALENT
ON THURSDAY WITH A BRIEF BREAK ON FRIDAY WHEN HIGH PRESSURE NOSES
DOWN FROM CANADA WITH LOWER LEVEL DRY AIR. ON SATURDAY/SAT NIGHT
MODELS HAVE BEEN CONSISTENTLY DIPPING AN UPPER TROUGH DOWN OVER
THE DAKOTAS BRINGING BETTER CHANCES FOR PRECIP INTO SUN MORNING.
BY SUN AFTERNOON SFC HIGH PRESSURE BRIEFLY BUILDS IN AND KEEPS THE
AREA MOSTLY DRY THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON. ANOTHER LOW WILL BRING
FURTHER PRECIP CHANCES...MAINLY TO THE SOUTHWEST CWA MONDAY
NIGHT/TUESDAY.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR OR SLIGHTLY BELOW CLIMO AVERAGES WITH
HIGHS TOPPING OUT IN THE 70S MOST DAYS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 631 AM CDT TUE JUN 2 2015

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS THE REGION THIS
MORNING AFFECTING KABR AND POSSIBLY KATY BEFORE 15Z. THIS ACTIVITY
WILL THEN DISSIPATE BEFORE ANOTHER STRONGER ROUND DEVELOPS THIS
AFTERNOON AROUND 21Z FROM KPIR TO KABR AND MOVES EAST DURING THE
EVENING. VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL EXCEPT IN HEAVIER SHOWERS
WHERE CIGS AND VSBY MAY FALL TO MVFR. THERE IS SOME CHANCE OF IFR
STRATUS/FOG DEVELOPMENT TOWARD THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD ON
WEDNESDAY. THERE IS STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY REGARDING JUST HOW
WIDESPREAD ANY VSBY REDUCTIONS WILL BE SO LEFT MENTION OUT OF THE
TAFS FOR NOW.

&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...CONNELLY
LONG TERM...WISE
AVIATION...WISE



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