Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Aberdeen, SD

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000
FXUS63 KABR 040549 AAC
AFDABR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
1249 AM CDT FRI SEP 4 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1247 AM CDT FRI SEP 4 2015

SEE BELOW FOR AN UPDATED AVIATION FORECAST DISCUSSION.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 818 PM CDT THU SEP 3 2015

NOT PLANNING ANY MAJOR UPDATES THIS EVENING. DID ADD SOME FOG TO
THE SISSETON HILLS AREA GIVEN LAST FEW NIGHTS EXPERIENCE AS WELL
AS SOME SUPPORT FROM SREF AVIATION GUIDANCE. CONVECTION WEST
RIVER IS SLOWLY DECAYING ON TRACK WITH LOSS OF DIABATIC HEATING.
LLJ AND APPROACHING WAVE CURRENTLY OVER COLORADO MAY SUPPORT SCT
CONVECTION LATE TNT AND EARLY ON FRIDAY. UPDATES ALREADY ISSUED.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 316 PM CDT THU SEP 3 2015

GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE MODELS THROUGH THE SHORT TERM. FOR TONIGHT
AND FRIDAY...AN UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE TROUGH CURRENTLY OVER
COLORADO WILL SLOWLY LIFT NORTHEAST AND OVER THE REGION. WITH A LLJ
DEVELOPING ALONG WITH THE LIFT FROM THIS TROUGH...EXPECT SOME
SHOWERS AND STORMS TO DEVELOP THIS EVENING SOUTHWEST OF THE REGION.
THESE WILL LIFT NORTHEAST THROUGH THE NIGHT AND FRIDAY. THE HI-RES
MODELS ALL INDICATE SOME SHOWER/STORM DEVELOPMENT INTO FRIDAY WITH
THIS TROUGH. THE LATEST RADARS TO OUR FAR SOUTHWEST ALSO SHOWING
SOME ECHOES LATE THIS AFTERNOON.

FRIDAY SHOULD BE SLIGHTLY COOLER WITH MORE CLOUD COVER WITH THE
UPPER TROUGH ALONG WITH SOME RAINFALL. THIS TROUGH WILL MOVE NORTH
WITH THE MODELS SHOWING ANOTHER WEAK SHORT WAVE LIFTING NORTHEAST
ACROSS THE REGION SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT. THIS LIFT COMBINED
AGAIN WITH A LLJ WILL BRING BETTER CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND STORMS TO
THE REGION FOR SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT. SATURDAY WILL ALSO HAVE
MORE CLOUD COVER WITH HIGHS IN THE 80S/LOWER 90S. AS THE MAIN/LARGE
UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE TROUGH OVER THE WESTERN US KICKS OUT CLOSER
TO OUR REGION SATURDAY NIGHT...A COLD FRONT MAY ENTER THE WESTERN
CWA LATE SATURDAY NIGHT AND MAY KICK OFF MORE STORMS. A FEW SEVERE
STORMS WILL ALSO REMAIN POSSIBLE FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. THE HIGH
HUMIDITY ALONG WITH WARM OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL ALSO REMAIN THROUGH
SATURDAY NIGHT.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 316 PM CDT THU SEP 3 2015

THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PLAGUING THE SHORT TERM PERIOD TRACKS
NORTHEAST INTO CANADA...AND THEN CLOSES OFF OVER MANITOBA AND VERY
SLOWLY TRACKS INTO THE HUDSON BAY REGION. AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT
WILL BE EXITING THE REGION MONDAY...WITH COOLER AND DRIER AIR
SETTLING IN. A SECOND FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS
THE REGION SOMEWHERE IN THE TUESDAY TIME FRAME. CHANCE TO SLIGHT
CHANCE POPS RESIDE ALONG THIS BOUNDARY TUESDAY...BUT OTHERWISE THE
LONG TERM FORECAST REMAINS MOSTLY DRY. GENERALLY SPEAKING COOLER
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD...BUT 850 MB
TEMPERATURES REACH THEIR LOW POINT WEDNESDAY MORNING...DROPPING INTO
THE SINGLE DIGITS AND TEENS CELSIUS. A PROGRESSIVE ZONAL FLOW TAKES
OVER FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE LONG TERM.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1247 AM CDT FRI SEP 4 2015

LATE TNT AND EARLY FRIDAY PATCHY FOG/STRATUS IS POSSIBLE AT
KATY/KABR. OTHERWISE VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF
VALID PERIOD. A WAVE ALOFT WILL MOVE THROUGH ON FRIDAY PROVIDING
SOME POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS/STORMS.

&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...DORN
SHORT TERM...MOHR
LONG TERM...SERR
AVIATION...DORN/TDK


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