Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Aberdeen, SD

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FXUS63 KABR 252039

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Aberdeen SD
239 PM CST Sat Feb 25 2017

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Sunday Afternoon)
Issued at 225 PM CST Sat Feb 25 2017

So far today, not much pcpn has fallen over the cwa.  This may
change overnight as a more robust wave per sat imagery/model pv
charts drops southeast across the region. This wave will produce a
weak sfc wave that is expected to track across southern North Dakota
overnight. Latest UVM progs are not particularly strong and jet
involvement over my area looks somewhat meek, so will keep pops
at chc levels vs likely. It`s also pretty obvious per sat pix that
daytime heating has contributed to a fair amount of convective
looking clouds over western South Dakota, some of this will die
off with the setting sun. However, more consolidated pcpn looks to
be taking shape over the Black Hills, and this should spread east
this evening.

Sunday looks dry and perhaps a touch cooler in the east vs today
behind weak cold front. Southwest cwa will probably recover enough
to match Saturday`s high temperatures given fairly decent mixing
in the low levels per model soundings.

.LONG TERM...(Sunday Evening through Saturday)
Issued at 225 PM CST Sat Feb 25 2017

Multiple storm systems should progress across the region in the long
term portion of the forecast. While the GFS, ECMWF and Canadian all
show these storm systems about the same time frame, they differ on
intensity and thus pcpn amounts. An inverted surface trough crossing
the region Monday night through Tuesday should bring the best
potential for pcpn. With the dominant P-type being snow, minor
accumulations could be possible.

A fairly pronounced upper level trough will slide across the region
on Wednesday with pcpn possible. Northwest flow aloft beyond
Wednesday will bring additional, clipper like systems across the
region. The upper level flow pattern could take a brief, drastic
change on Saturday as a strong surface low crosses southern Canada.
Both the GFS and ECMWF show very warm temperatures surging into this
CWA with 925 mb temps possibly reaching the mid teens C. Highs on
Saturday could certainly be warmer than current forecast indicates.


.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Sunday Afternoon)
Issued at 1130 AM CST Sat Feb 25 2017

For this issuance am sticking with mainly VFR conditions for the
entire TAF valid period. Rain and snow showers are possible mainly
at KABR/KMBG later this afternoon and evening.




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