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000
FXUS63 KABR 240000 AAA
AFDABR

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Aberdeen SD
700 PM CDT FRI SEP 23 2016

.UPDATE...
Issued at 659 PM CDT FRI SEP 23 2016

00z aviation discussion updated below.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Sunday Night)
Issued at 333 PM CDT FRI SEP 23 2016

Warm front continues to surge northward this afternoon with a large
temperature gradient across the region. 90s have pushed into
Chamberlain while 60s remain over northern SD. Clearing line has
made steady progress northward as well, and will continue to see
this trend into the evening hours. Low clouds and fog remain stuck
over the higher elevations of the eastern CWA and will keep fog
mention into the evening/overnight hours as things may be a bit
harder to scour out here. Most of the CWA is dry at this time, with
just a few showers exiting the borders to the north and east. Expect
much of the evening/overnight to be dry across the CWA with
additional shower and storm development affecting mainly western SD
and perhaps into the far western CWA. Presence of strong low level
jet over the area may get some activity going by sunrise though over
parts of the CWA.

Focus will then shift to Saturday as low pressure moves northward
into ND. Wind shift/dry line will push east across the CWA during
the day. Mid level speed max moves overhead as well with height
falls overspreading the region. Instability is not overly
impressive...but low level shear and presence of aforementioned
items will be enough to bring scattered showers and storms to the
area by as early as late morning. As activity moves east into the
afternoon...some upscale growth is possible as better instability is
tapped. Could see a few stronger storms capable of strong winds and
hail.

Low will begin moving east on Sunday, with strong northwest winds
developing in its wake, especially over central SD where marginal
wind advisory speeds may be felt. Cooler temperatures will also move
in on Sunday, with highs in the 60s. Increased cloud cover as well,
more so over eastern portions of the CWA as it appears quite a few
clouds will be rotating through on the back side of the low. Still
looking at the potential for some light wrap-around showers as well,
mainly over northern portions of the CWA.

.LONG TERM...(Monday through Friday)
Issued at 333 PM CDT FRI SEP 23 2016

The extended period opens up with an exiting, deep upper trough and
northwest flow aloft. This will keep temps more autumn-like for the
start of the work week with highs in the 60s. As a ridge builds in
midweek, highs will pop into the 70s again.

Most of the period will be dry under high pressure. Current model
runs indicate a wave of low pressure moving through toward the end
of the work week. This wave could bring some showers and
thunderstorms.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Saturday Evening)
Issued at 659 PM CDT FRI SEP 23 2016

MVFR/IFR ceilings and fog are expected to hold in through much of
the night at ATY with all other locations becoming vfr early this
evening. Otherwise, llws shear is expected tonight as low level
winds increase to over 40 knots not far off the surface. The low
clouds will move north of ATY on Saturday as mid and high level
clouds increase with the larger upper level low pressure trough
moving in.  Also, expect scattered showers and storms to lift across
the region through tonight and Saturday and may affect the airports.

&&

.ABR Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...Mohr
SHORT TERM...TMT
LONG TERM...Wise
AVIATION...Mohr