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000
FXUS63 KABR 010546 AAC
AFDABR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
1146 PM CST SAT JAN 31 2015

.UPDATE...
SEE BELOW FOR AN UPDATED AVIATION FORECAST DISCUSSION.

MADE SOME UPDATES TO POPS/WX/QPF/SNOW THIS EVENING TO CONTINUE
BACK-PEDDLING ON QPF/SNOW AMOUNTS AND BASICALLY LIMIT THE
LIKELY/CATEGORICAL POPS TO ALONG AND WEST OF A LINE FROM ABERDEEN
TO KATY. NOW...THERE IS NO SNOW FORECAST ALONG AND EAST OF A LINE
FROM HECLA TO WEBSTER TO MILBANK...AND THE FORECAST
1-INCH-OF-SNOW-LINE HAS BEEN PULLED BACK TO THE WEST LOCATED
ALONG A LINE FROM MOUND CITY TO REDFIELD TO BRYANT. CONSIDERABLE
LOW LEVEL DRY AIR ADVECTION COINCIDING WITH THE STRONG CAA WILL
REALLY EAT AWAY AT MUCH OF THE ACCUMULATING SNOW POTENTIAL ACROSS
NORTHEAST SOUTH DAKOTA AND WC MINNESOTA TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY
MORNING. THE FAR SOUTHWESTERN FORECAST ZONES
/JONES...LYMAN...BUFFALO/ COULD STILL END UP SEEING BETWEEN 2 AND
4 INCHES OF SNOW BY THE END OF THE EVENT...SO WILL CONTINUE WITH
THE WINT WX ADV FOR THAT AREA. UPDATES ARE OUT.


&&
.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT
A CLIPPER SYSTEM MOVING INTO THE CWA FROM THE NORTHWEST WILL MERGE
WITH A STRONG AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS TO
RESULT IN ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL FOR MOST OF THE CWA TONIGHT
THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING.

THE CLIPPER SYSTEM MOVING IN FROM THE NORTHWEST WILL ENCOUNTER
VERY DRY AIR IN THE LOWER LEVELS WHICH SHOULD LIMIT SNOWFALL
AMOUNTS. THE HIRES MODELS OF THE ARW/NMM EVEN SUGGEST DRY
CONDITIONS FOR THE NORTHEASTERN PORTION OF THE CWA FOR THIS EVENT.
THE HIRES MODELS BASICALLY SUGGEST ONE TO TWO INCHES FOR THE REST
OF THE CWA. THE EXCEPTION WILL BE SOUTH CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA WHERE
THE SOUTHERN LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BRING ADDITIONAL
ACCUMULATIONS. THE REGIONAL RADAR CURRENTLY SHOWS MODERATE PCPN
OVER CENTRAL NEBRASKA. THIS PCPN WILL SLOWLY TRACK NORTHWARD
THROUGH THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON...REACHING THE I-90 CORRIDOR BY
0Z. THE GFS/NAM SUGGEST SOUTH CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA COULD BE A
PIVOT LOCATION AS THE LOW TRACK INTO MISSOURI TONIGHT. THIS AREA
WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL OF SEEING 3 TO 5 INCHES OF SNOW TONIGHT
THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING. THUS WILL ISSUE A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY
FOR JONES/LYMAN...AND BUFFALO COUNTIES.

DRY AIR WILL FILTER INTO THE AREA FROM THE NORTH ON SUNDAY THANKS
TO A SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM. ACCUMULATING SNOW WILL LIKELY
ENDING BY NOON WITH DRY CONDITIONS THROUGH AT LEAST MONDAY
MORNING. ANOTHER WEAK CLIPPER SYSTEM WILL TRACK ACROSS THE AREA
MONDAY AFTERNOON. THIS SYSTEM LACKS LLM SO WILL MAINTAIN SCHC
POPS.


.LONG TERM...TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY

STILL A LOT OF UNCERTAINTY AT THE START OF THE LONG TERM REGARDING
THE SYSTEM MOVING ACROSS THE PLAINS. MODELS ARE ALL OVER THE PLACE
WITH WHERE THE ARCTIC FRONT AND BEST FORCING WILL SET UP. NAM IS
NORTH OF THIS CWA..GFS IS SOUTH AND WEST AND THE ECMWF IS
SOMEWHERE IN THE MIDDLE. KEPT IN LOW CHANCE POPS ACROSS MUCH OF
THE AREA AS A RESULT. WITH SFC HIGH PRESSURE PUSHING DRY AIR IN FROM
THE NORTHWEST THERE IS GOING TO BE A SHARP CUTOFF WHERE EVER THE
PRECIP LINE ENDS UP.

SFC HIGH PRESSURE AND NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL DOMINATE WED KEEPING
THE REGION COLD AND DRY. BY THU AS THE HIGH SHIFTS TO THE EAST
RETURN FLOW WILL SET UP AND TEMPS WILL REBOUND FOR THE REMAINDER
OF THE WEEK. THE NEXT LOW THEN IMPACTS THE DAKOTAS ON SATURDAY.


&&
.AVIATION...
06Z TAFS FOR THE KABR...KATY...KPIR AND KMBG TERMINALS

KABR/KATY ARE STILL VFR. SUB-VFR CONDITIONS IN LIGHT SNOWFALL MAY
DEVELOP AT THESE TWO TERMINALS EARLY THIS MORNING...OR THE LOW
LEVEL DRY AIR ADVECTING INTO THE AREA FROM THE NORTH/EAST WILL
KEEP THINGS DRY. HAVE OPTED TO REDUCE SNOW MENTION TO A TEMPO
GROUP. SNOW START TIME IS EXPECTED TO BE SOMEWHERE BETWEEN 07Z AND
10Z AT THESE TWO TERMINALS. BREEZY NORTHEAST WINDS OF 15 TO 25
KNOTS WILL CONTINUE WELL INTO SUNDAY...WHILE GRADUALLY BACKING
AROUND TO A MORE NORTH-NORTHWESTERLY DIRECTION.

KMBG IS CLOSE TO TRANSITIONING TO SUB-VFR IN LIGHT SNOW. LIGHT
SNOW POTENTIAL SHOULD PERSIST UNTIL APPX 12Z BEFORE CONDITIONS
CLEAR OFF AND RETURN TO VFR. KPIR IS MVFR AND SHOULD BE INTO SOME
LIGHT SNOW /IFR VISBIES/ BY APPX 07Z...AND REMAIN SO THROUGH
SUNDAY MORNING BEFORE THINGS CLEAR OFF AND RETURN TO VFR. BREEZY
NORTHEAST WINDS OF 15 TO 25 KNOTS WILL CONTINUE WELL INTO
SUNDAY...WHILE GRADUALLY BACKING AROUND TO A MORE
NORTH-NORTHWESTERLY DIRECTION.


&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM CST SUNDAY FOR BUFFALO-JONES-
     LYMAN.

MN...NONE.
&&

$$
UPDATE...DORN
SHORT TERM...SD
LONG TERM...WISE
AVIATION...DORN

WEATHER.GOV/ABERDEEN