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000
FXUS63 KABR 240548 AAC
AFDABR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
1248 AM CDT FRI MAY 24 2013

.UPDATE...
SEE BELOW FOR AN UPDATED AVIATION FORECAST DISCUSSION.

NO MAJOR CHANGES MADE TO THE FORECAST THIS EVENING. HIGH CLOUDS
NOW STREAMING IN FROM THE WEST...SO DID INCREASE SKY COVER IN THAT
AREA. NO CHANGES MADE TO WINDS OR TEMPERATURES.


&&
.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT
A SOMEWHAT ACTIVE PATTERN FOR THE SHORT RANGE. MODELS ARE IN
GENERAL AGREEMENT THAT A MID LEVEL WESTERN CONUS TROF WILL DEVELOP
DURING THE PERIOD...WITH RETURN FLOW QUICKLY BRINGING
MOISTURE/INSTABILITY BACK INTO THE WESTERN HIGH PLAINS. IT APPEARS
THIS AREA WILL REMAIN THE FOCUS FOR CONVECTIVE
INITIATION/DEVELOPMENT THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD. WITH AN MCS OR
TWO BEGINNING OUT WEST AND RIDING THE LLJ EAST OVERNIGHT. DEEP
LAYER BULK SHEAR WILL BE SUFFICIENT ENOUGH TO GET SOME DECENT
STORMS GOING...ESPECIALLY THE WESTERN HIGH PLAINS WHERE
MOISTURE/INSTABILITY WILL BE MORE PROLIFIC. AS FOR
TEMPERATURES...THEY SHOULD GENERALLY BE NEAR OR SLIGHTLY COOLER
THAN NORMAL ACROSS THE REGION. WINDS WILL BE GUSTY FROM THE SOUTH
ON FRIDAY...HOWEVER FOR NOW THEY APPEAR TO REMAIN NEAR OR JUST
UNDER WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA AND THUS WILL FORE-GO ANY HEADLINE
FOR THE TIME BEING.


.LONG TERM...SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY
MODELS AGREE FAIRLY WELL IN THE EXTENDED WITH THE EVOLUTION OF
THE LONG WAVE FLOW PATTERN ACROSS THE CONUS. WEAK TO MODERATE
RIDGING WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST PORTION OF THE US...WITH
A TROUGH OVER THE SOUTHWEST. SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF THE UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH AND SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SHOULD BE THE FOCUS
MECHANISM FOR A PROLONGED PERIOD OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FOR
THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. WHILE THERE IS
AT LEAST A CHANCE FOR STORMS EACH DAY IN THE EXTENDED...BELIEVE
THERE WELL BE PERIODS OF DRY CONDITIONS MIXED IN. TIMING DRY
PERIODS ARE RATHER PROBLEMATIC AS THE GFS/ECMWF SHOW SEVERAL SHORT
WAVES TRACKING ACROSS THE REGION AT VARIOUS TIMES. THUS WILL STICK
WITH ALLBLEND POPS FOR NOW AND FINE TUNE IN THE FUTURE.


&&

.AVIATION...
06Z TAFS FOR THE KABR...KATY...KPIR AND KMBG TERMINALS

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL OVERNIGHT AND THROUGH THE DAY FRIDAY.
SOUTH TO SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE INTO THE 20 TO 35 MPH
RANGE BY LATE MORNING. SCATTERED SHOWERS...AND A THUNDERSTORM OR
TWO...ARE POSSIBLE DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS AS WELL. FOR
NOW...HAVE JUST MENTIONED VCSH AT ALL TAF SITES DUE TO UNCERTAINTY
OF TIMING AND EXACT LOCATION OF DEVELOPMENT.


&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$
UPDATE...DORN
SHORT TERM...TDK
LONG TERM...SD
AVIATION...DORN/PARKIN

WEATHER.GOV/ABERDEEN