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000
FXUS63 KABR 310854
AFDABR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
354 AM CDT THU JUL 31 2014

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY

WEAK MID LEVEL ENERGY STREAMING SOUTHEAST OVER THE DAKOTAS EARLY
THIS MORNING. A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS HAVE BEEN OCCURRING OVER THE
PAST SEVERAL HOURS BETWEEN THE JAMES AND MISSOURI RIVERS.
ADDITIONAL SHORTWAVE ENERGY NOTED UPSTREAM IN WESTERN ND MAKING
ITS WAY SOUTHEAST. THESE FEATURES WILL BRING SLIGHT CHANCES FOR
PRECIPITATION TO THE AREA TODAY...MAINLY OVER WESTERN AND CENTRAL
SD. HI RES MODELS PICKING UP ON THIS AS WELL...BUT INTERESTING TO
NOTE THAT THEY ALSO BLOW UP SOME ISOLATED ACTIVITY OVER THE
EASTERN CWA SO WILL NEED TO KEEP AN EYE ON THIS TREND.

ON FRIDAY...WEAK SFC LOW DROPS SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA WITH A
SUBTLE WARM FRONT DRAPED ACROSS THE REGION. WEAK INSTABILITY
DEVELOPS DURING THE AFTERNOON WITH WEAK SHEAR. HAVE INSERTED
SLIGHT CHANCE POPS DURING THE AFTERNOON AS A FEW MODELS ARE
SHOWING THE POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS OR STORMS.

AS FOR TEMPERATURES...850 MB TEMPS INCREASE SLOWLY THROUGH THE
PERIOD. WILL SEE GRADUALLY WARMING TEMPS THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH
HIGHS IN THE 80S. CENTRAL SD WILL BE AROUND 90 DEGREES ON FRIDAY
AND SATURDAY.


.LONG TERM...SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY

UPPER LEVEL RIDGING OVER THE WESTERN HALF OF THE COUNTRY AND
TROUGHING OVER THE EAST WILL BE IN PLACE WHEN THE EXTENDED PERIOD
STARTS. THE RIDGE WILL GET DAMPENED SOME BEGINNING MONDAY AS
SHORTWAVE ENERGY TRACKS ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS. THE STRONGEST
WAVES LOOK TO AFFECT THE AREA TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.

WITH THE UPPER RIDGE IN PLACE...THE REGION WILL BE MOSTLY DRY
SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THE DAY MONDAY. WILL THEN SEE BETTER
CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY AS A
SURFACE LOW TRACKS ACROSS THE AREA IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE UPPER
LEVEL SHORTWAVE ENERGY. THE GFS LOOKS TO BE COMING AROUND TO THE
MORE CONSISTENT ECMWF SOLUTION...SO WILL STICK FAIRLY CLOSE TO THE
ALLBLEND.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE A BIT ABOVE NORMAL TO START THE PERIOD...WITH
HIGHS IN THE MID 80S TO LOWER 90S SUNDAY AND MONDAY. WITH MORE
CLOUD COVER AND ANTICIPATED PRECIPITATION...WILL SEE SLIGHTLY
COOLER AIR MOVE IN TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN
THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S.

&&

.AVIATION...

06Z TAFS FOR THE KABR...KATY...KPIR AND KMBG TERMINALS

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. ISOLATED
SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS CENTRAL SD LATE TONIGHT AND THEN
AGAIN THURSDAY MORNING AS A WEAK SHORTWAVE MOVES THROUGH. DUE TO
THE LOW AREAL COVERAGE...NO MENTION OF SHOWERS IN THE TAFS AT
THIS TIME. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$
SHORT TERM...TMT
LONG TERM...PARKIN
AVIATION...PARKIN

WEATHER.GOV/ABERDEEN