Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Aberdeen, SD

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FXUS63 KABR 120602
AFDABR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
102 AM CDT SAT APR 12 2014

.UPDATE...
SEE UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION FOR THE 06Z TAFS BELOW.

&&
.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT

DEWPOINTS HAVE DROPPED LOWER THAN FORECAST THIS AFTERNOON...WHICH
IN TURN IS LEADING TO LOWER HUMIDITY. THANKFULLY WINDS ARE NOT ALL
TOO BREEZY OR ELSE THERE WOULD LIKELY BE FIRE WEATHER HEADLINES IN
PLACE.

OVERNIGHT...LOW PRESSURE MOVES EAST ACROSS THE AREA WITH AN
IMPRESSIVE LOW LEVEL JET ON THE ORDER OF 50 TO 60 KNOTS DEVELOPING
OVER SOUTHEAST SD. THE CORE OF THE STRONGEST WINDS STAY OVER
SOUTHEAST SD...BUT ABOUT 40 KNOTS OR SO POKES INTO THE EASTERN
CWA...WHERE THE NOSE OF THE JET WILL BE POSITIONED. ALL MODELS
SHOWING QPF ACROSS THE EASTERN CWA OVERNIGHT SO HAVE INCREASED
POPS. MOISTURE IS NOT IMPRESSIVE BUT SHOULD STILL BE ABLE TO GET
SOME HI BASED SHOWERS GOING. NOT MUCH INSTABILITY ALOFT SO
EXPECTING MORE SHOWERS THAN THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY.

ON SATURDAY...RH VALUES WILL ONCE AGAIN TANK DURING THE AFTERNOON
AS BREEZY NORTHWEST WINDS DEVELOP. A MILD AND DRY AIR MASS WILL
REMAIN IN PLACE WHICH WILL LEAD TO HIGH/VERY HIGH FIRE DANGER FOR
THE ENTIRE AREA. HAVE A FEELING DEWPOINTS IN THE AFTERNOON ONCE
AGAIN HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO DROP LOWER THAN FORECAST. BY SATURDAY
NIGHT...COLD FRONT MOVES SOUTH OVER THE AREA WHICH WILL BRING AN
ABRUPT END TO THE MILD TEMPERATURES. PRECIP WILL SPREAD ACROSS
SOUTHERN SD...MAINLY ALONG AND SOUTH OF I-90. MODELS HAVE TRENDED
A TAD FURTHER SOUTH. INITIALLY PRECIP WILL BE RAIN BUT ENOUGH COLD
AIR WILL WORK SOUTH TO CHANGE PRECIP TO SNOW OR A RAIN/SNOW MIX BY
SUNDAY MORNING. MUCH COOLER TEMPS WILL ARRIVE FOR SUNDAY WITH
HIGHS ONLY IN THE LOW 40S FOR MOST AREAS. NORTH WINDS WILL REMAIN
BRISK AS WELL...MAKING FOR A RAW DAY.


.LONG TERM...MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY

AN ANOMALOUSLY COLD AIRMASS OF ONE TO TWO STANDARD DEVIATIONS
BELOW NORMAL WILL BE THE DOMINATE WEATHER FEATURE ACROSS THE
REGION THROUGH THE LONG TERM PORTION OF THE FORECAST. GFS AND
CANADIAN ENSEMBLE MEMBERS GENERALLY SUGGEST A VERY LOW PROBABILITY
OF HIGH TEMPERATURES EXCEEDING 50 DEGREES FOR KABR. SOME MEMBERS
ARE EVEN SHOWING 40S BEING OUT OF THE QUESTION ON TUESDAY. DID
LOWER TEMPS OVERALL A FEW DEGREES OVER ALLBLEND PER AN ENSEMBLE
FORECAST.

PRECIPITATION CHANCES AND P-TYPE WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT IS
THE BIGGEST CHALLENGE IN THE PERIOD. ALL MODELS SHOW A H7 TROUGH
SLIDING SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE REGION WITH 925 MB TEMPS FALLING TO
THE SINGLE DIGITS BELOW ZERO C. WITH DECENT MOISTURE WRAPPING INTO
THE CWA THANKS AN INVERTED SURFACE TROUGH AND RAIN...PERHAPS
CHANGING OVER TO SNOW BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT SEEMS POSSIBLE. WITH GOOD
MODEL AGREEMENT...HAVE INCREASED POPS SLIGHTLY OVER THE ALLBLEND
GUIDANCE FOR WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THE REST OF THE LONG
TERM LOOKS DRY WITH ONLY A FEW TIME PERIODS OF SCHC POPS.


&&

.AVIATION...
06Z TAFS FOR THE KABR...KATY...KPIR AND KMBG TERMINALS

PREVAILING VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR ALL TERMINALS THROUGH
THE VALID TAF PERIOD. A SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM PASSING ACROSS
THE REGION TONIGHT WILL BRING SCATTERED HIGH BASED SHOWERS TO
NORTHEASTERN SOUTH DAKOTA. WILL CONTINUE THE MENTION OF VCSH AT
BOTH KMBG AND KABR. BREEZY E/NE WINDS WILL CONTINUE
OVERNIGHT...SHIFTING TO THE NORTHWEST BY SATURDAY EVENING
ASSOCIATED WITH A SFC COLD FRONT.


&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$
UPDATE...FOWLE
SHORT TERM...TMT
LONG TERM...SD
AVIATION...FOWLE

WEATHER.GOV/ABERDEEN





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