Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Aberdeen, SD

Home | Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary On
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50
000
FXUS63 KABR 011127 AAA
AFDABR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
627 AM CDT SAT NOV 1 2014

.UPDATE...
SEE BELOW FOR AN UPDATED AVIATION FORECAST DISCUSSION.


&&
.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH MONDAY

SOUTH WINDS ARE RATHER GUSTY ALREADY THIS MORNING WITH A HEALTHY
LOW LEVEL JET IN PLACE. MAIN ISSUE TODAY WILL BE DEALING WITH
THESE WINDS AS WELL AS THE INCREASED FIRE DANGER BY AFTERNOON.
TAKING A LOOK AT ALL GUIDANCE AND BUFKIT SOUNDINGS...IT APPEARS WE
WILL BE FLIRTING WITH WIND ADVISORY TODAY...ESPECIALLY WITH
SUSTAINED SPEEDS. WITH MARGINAL EVENT EXPECTED...DECIDED AGAINST
ADVISORY AT THIS TIME BUT DAY SHIFT WILL NEED TO MONITOR. SOME OBS
IN THE JAMES VALLEY MAY SEE LOW END ADVISORY FOR A TIME TODAY.
CURRENT FORECAST RH VALUES FALL INTO THE 20S FOR MOST AREAS TODAY
WHICH IS CLOSE TO RED FLAG CRITERIA...BUT OVERALL CONSENSUS FROM
SURROUNDING OFFICES WAS TO HOLD OFF ON HEADLINE AND STRESS FIRE
DANGER IN OTHER PRODUCTS. AGAIN THOUGH...THIS WILL BE SOMETHING TO
MONITOR THROUGHOUT THE MORNING AS A HEADLINE MAY EVENTUALLY BE THE
WAY TO GO HERE.

LOW PRESSURE MOVES INTO ND ON SUNDAY WITH CONTINUED SOUTHERLY FLOW
AND WARMER TEMPS ALOFT ACROSS THE CWA. THIS WILL SPELL OUT EVEN
WARMER TEMPS ON SUNDAY. WINDS DO NOT APPEAR TO BE QUITE AS STRONG
ON SUNDAY.

COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT WITH SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPS
TO FOLLOW FOR MONDAY. NOT MUCH MOISTURE TO WORK WITH AS THIS FRONT
SLIDES THROUGH SO EXPECTING MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS.


.LONG TERM...MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY
NOT MUCH HAS CHANGED IN THE OUT PERIODS. MOST OF THE EXTENDED IS
DOMINATED BY SOME FORM OF NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. A COUPLE
CLIPPER-TYPE SHORTWAVES ARE FORECAST TO SWEEP EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD
THROUGH THE NORTHERN PLAINS NEXT WEEK. SUPERBLEND POPS CONTINUE
TO RESPOND WITH SOME RATHER SMALL SLT CHANCE POPS IN ASSOCIATION
WITH THESE SYSTEMS. BACK-DOOR COLD FRONTS WITH THESE SYSTEMS TRY
TO PUSH COOLER CANADIAN AIR SOUTH-SOUTHWESTWARD INTO THE CWA.


&&
.AVIATION...
12Z TAFS FOR THE KABR...KATY...KPIR AND KMBG TERMINALS

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE AREA TODAY AND TONIGHT.
SOUTH TO SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS WILL CONTINUE IN THE 20 TO 30 KNOT
RANGE WITH HIGHER GUSTS. WIND SPEEDS SHOULD BEGIN DIMINISHING
LATER THIS EVENING AFTER SUNSET.


&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$
UPDATE...DORN
SHORT TERM...TMT
LONG TERM...DORN
AVIATION...DORN

WEATHER.GOV/ABERDEEN





USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.