Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Aberdeen, SD

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FXUS63 KABR 271123 AAA
AFDABR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
523 AM CST THU NOV 27 2014

.UPDATE...
SEE UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.


&&
.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY
PRECIPITATION CHANCES AND PRECIPITATION TYPE TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT
WILL BE THE FORECAST CHALLENGES.

AN AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE REGION HAS PRODUCED BITTER COLD
TEMPERATURES THIS MORNING WITH MANY LOCATIONS REPORTING TEMPS
IN THE SINGLE DIGITS BELOW...TO THE 20S BELOW ZERO. THE COLDEST
READING ARE LOCATED OVER NORTH DAKOTA. THIS HIGH PRESSURE WILL
PUSH EAST OF THE REGION TODAY ALLOWING FOR WAA TO DEVELOP OVER THE
WESTERN DAKOTAS. MODELS HAVE SLOWED DOWN THE PROGRESSION OF THE
WAA WITH HIGHS SLIGHTLY COOLER THAN PREVIOUSLY EXPECTED.

A SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM CURRENTLY OVER MONTANA WITH AN
ASSOCIATED WARM FRONT RUNNING DOWN THE FRONT RANGE OF THE ROCKIES
WILL SLOWLY TRACK EASTWARD ACROSS THE AREA OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
MODEL SOUNDINGS...SREF PROBABILITIES AND WPC ALL SUGGEST THE
DOMINANT P-TYPE WILL BE SNOW TODAY. HOWEVER BASED ON THE MID LEVEL
WARM PUSH AFTER 0Z...MIXED PCPN IS POSSIBLE. NORTHEASTERN SOUTH
DAKOTA AND WESTERN MINNESOTA HAS THE BEST POTENTIAL OF SEEING
MIXED PCPN. LITTLE TO NO ICE ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

WARM AIR WILL SPREAD ACROSS THE CWA ON FRIDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE
30S LIKELY FOR MOST LOCATIONS. THESE WARM TEMPERATURES WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH SATURDAY BEFORE A COLD FRONT SLIDES SOUTHEASTWARD
ACROSS THE CWA DURING THE MID TO LATE AFTERNOON HOURS.


.LONG TERM...SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY
A COUPLE OF UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVES WILL TRACK ACROSS THE NORTHERN
PLAINS DURING THE EXTENDED PERIOD...ONE SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT
AND ANOTHER TUESDAY NIGHT.

AT THE SURFACE...A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL HAVE JUST TRACKED ACROSS
THE CWA DURING THE DAY SATURDAY...WITH HIGH PRESSURE APPROACHING
FROM THE NORTHWEST WHEN THE PERIOD STARTS. THE MODELS DIFFER ON
HOW QUICKLY THIS HIGH REACHES THE AREA...WITH THE GFS ABOUT 12
HOURS FASTER THAN THE GEM OR ECMWF. THERE MAY BE A FEW LIGHT SNOW
SHOWERS ACROSS MAINLY THE NORTHWESTERN CWA SATURDAY NIGHT BEFORE
THE DRIER AIR REACHES THE REGION. THE HIGH WILL THEN BE DOMINANT
OVER THE CWA THROUGH THE DAY MONDAY. AS IT THEN GETS PUSHED EAST
AHEAD OF A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM...A FAIRLY STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT
SETS UP...WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR STRONG WINDS MONDAY NIGHT INTO
EARLY TUESDAY. THE LOW AND ITS ASSOCIATED FRONTAL BOUNDARY LOOK TO
TRACK ACROSS THE CWA TUESDAY...AND WILL LIKELY MOVE THROUGH DRY
DUE TO LACK OF UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT. HIGH PRESSURE THEN MOVES BACK
IN ON WEDNESDAY. OTHER THAN THE SMALL CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS
ACROSS THE NORTHWEST SATURDAY NIGHT...THE EXTENDED PERIOD WILL BE
DRY.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THE ENTIRE PERIOD.
SUNDAY WILL BE THE COLDEST DAY OF THE PERIOD WITH HIGHS IN THE
SINGLE DIGITS AND TEENS. SLIGHTLY WARMER AIR THEN BEGINS TO MOVE
BACK IN WITH HIGHS MONDAY IN THE TEENS AND 20S...AND IN THE 20S
AND 30S TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.


&&

.AVIATION...
12Z TAFS FOR THE KABR...KATY...KPIR AND KMBG TERMINALS

AN AREA OF MAINLY MVFR CIGS...WITH SOME SPOTS OF IFR CIGS AT
TIMES...WILL SPREAD FROM THE WESTERN PART OF THE CWA ACROSS THE
CENTRAL AND EAST THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. SOME LIGHT SNOW IS
POSSIBLE MAINLY ACROSS THE NORTH LATE THIS MORNING INTO THE
AFTERNOON...BUT VSBYS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BE AFFECTED. THE LOWER
CIGS WILL EXIT THE WESTERN CWA THIS EVENING...BUT WILL REMAIN
ACROSS THE EAST TONIGHT.


&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$
SHORT TERM...SD
LONG TERM...PARKIN
AVIATION...PARKIN

WEATHER.GOV/ABERDEEN





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