Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Aberdeen, SD

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FXUS63 KABR 302317 AAA

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Aberdeen SD
617 PM CDT Thu Mar 30 2017

Issued at 614 PM CDT Thu Mar 30 2017

See below for an aviation forecast discussion for the 00Z TAFs.


.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Friday Afternoon)
Issued at 312 PM CDT Thu Mar 30 2017

No precipitation is expected tonight or Friday. Low clouds have
remained in place over much of the region today, with some clearing
finally being noted across the west this afternoon. Models are
struggling with whether or not the low clouds will stay into the
overnight hours. With winds expected to be fairly light, expect they
will likely stay put, especially across the eastern CWA. This will
also aid in keeping temperatures mild overnight, with lows mainly in
the mid 30s. With more potential for seeing some clearing on Friday
as the system responsible for them pushes east, will see a better
rise in temperatures. Generally expecting highs in the mid to upper

.LONG TERM...(Friday Evening through Thursday)
Issued at 312 PM CDT Thu Mar 30 2017

Will start off the period with a sfc ridge still in place across the
forecast area. There will be weak high pressure extending from
western Lake Superior, and a larger area across much of northern and
central Canada. A low over southern Hudson Bay Friday night will
attempt to extend a weak trough across our northeastern counties.
However, dry weather will prevail.

The weather pattern starts to become more uncertain this weekend.
Rain will flirt with our southwest and southerly counties late
Friday night through Saturday night. This will be as high pressure
exits to our east, and 2 areas of low pressure move across TX and
northwestern Canada. The southern trough shifts across eastern NE
Saturday night, while the Canadian trough dives over eastern MT and
western SD. By Sunday afternoon the northern trough will move across
central Canada through the Dakotas, with the southern one remains
way to our south. Could get some light rain Sunday, but will not get
too excited yet, given the limited moisture. The main story will
probably be that Sunday should end up being the warmest day this
period, with temperatures topping out in the 60s for most locations.

Even though there are plenty of small scale discrepancies with the
track/intensity, The wettest period still looks to be Tuesday into
Tuesday evening of next week. Low pressure organizing off the CO
Rockies late Monday will merge with energy from TX to form a deep
low across MO-IA-IL by Wednesday afternoon.


.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Friday Evening)
Issued at 614 PM CDT Thu Mar 30 2017

VFR/MVFR cigs will gradually rise or dissipate over the next 12
hours. Prevailing VFR should be the order of the day on Friday.




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