Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Aberdeen, SD

Home | Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary On
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50
000
FXUS63 KABR 062104
AFDABR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Aberdeen SD
304 PM CST Tue Dec 6 2016

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Wednesday Afternoon)
Issued at 304 PM CST Tue Dec 6 2016

A strong area of low pressure currently over northern Minnesota will
slowly push east of the region through Wednesday. A tight pressure
gradient, along with CAA will create strong northwesterly winds
through at least 3Z. Thus the wind advisory has been extended in
time though 3Z. While snow is beginning to diminish in north central
South Dakota, the fresh snowfall will combine with the winds to
produce blowing snow issues though this evening. Webcams across
north central SD indicate anywhere between whiteout conditions to a
few miles. Expect these conditions will continue beyond 0Z, thus
have extended the winter weather adv. until 3Z. The northwesterly
winds have caused upslope pcpn into the Sisseton Hills where an
additional inch of snow is possible. With the falling snow and
strong winds, the winter weather advisory has been extended to 6Z.
Both winds and light snow should diminish by then.

Gusty winds are expected once again on Wednesday over much of the
region. While winds will be weaker than today, they still may cause
areas of blowing and drifting snow, especially in NE South Dakota
where winds will be the strongest. Sct snow flurries are also
possible in NE South Dakota which would help promote blowing snow.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday Evening through Tuesday)
Issued at 304 PM CST Tue Dec 6 2016

Will finally see winds diminish to around 15kts or less by late
Wednesday night, and continue that way through through at least the
early half of the weekend. The main story for this period will be
the well below normal temperatures. Wind Chill values could fall
into the -15 to -25F range Thursday morning over our western
counties.

While the main 500mb low will be east of Lake Superior by 00Z
Thursday, a broad through will remain over the Great Lakes region
into Friday. This will result in continued northwesterly flow over
the Northern Plains States. While light snow showers will be
possible over our far northeastern counties as another sfc trough
wraps around the exiting low, much of the cwa will be precipitation
free until Friday afternoon. Expect the sfc ridge to slide across
the area Thursday afternoon through Friday morning, with slight
ridging to zonal flow will slide in Friday and Friday night. An area
of light waa snow Friday afternoon, diminishing as it moves
overhead.

The potential for more widespread snow will arrive Saturday, as the
next sfc low pushes into the Central Plains. Timing and location is
still undecided, but snow should quickly expand across the entire
area by late Saturday morning, and exit to our northeast late
Saturday. With a healthy amount of moisture in the DGZ, snow ratios
may be closer to 20:1, with amounts of 1-3 inches likely and
possibly even a couple more inches of snow if the GFS is correct.
The 12Z ECMWF looks to be about 6 hours faster than the GFS with the
onset and ending of the snow with this system. Will continue to
monitor these differences for inclusion in our official fcst, but
went with a general blend for now.

Other than a very small chance of snow clipping our northern
counties Monday, and even less confidence in snow for next Tuesday,
much of the rest of the period should be snow free.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Wednesday Afternoon)
Issued at 1133 AM CST Tue Dec 6 2016

An area of low pressure will bring light snow and very strong
northwesterly winds through this evening. Both should diminish
late this afternoon through the overnight hours. Until then,
expect IFR conditions to affect the terminals of KATY and KMBG.
MVFR cigs are possible for KPIR and KABR as well. Once the snow
ends, MVFR cigs should continue through the valid taf period.

&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...Winter Weather Advisory until 9 PM CST /8 PM MST/ this evening
     for SDZ003>006-009-010-015>018.

     Winter Weather Advisory until midnight CST tonight for SDZ007-
     008-011-019>021.

     Wind Advisory until 9 PM CST /8 PM MST/ this evening for SDZ022-
     023-033>037-045-048-051.

MN...Winter Weather Advisory until midnight CST tonight for MNZ039-
     046.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...SD
LONG TERM...KF
AVIATION...SD



USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.