Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Aberdeen, SD

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FXUS63 KABR 132123

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Aberdeen SD
323 PM CST Fri Jan 13 2017

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Sunday Night)
Issued at 322 PM CST Fri Jan 13 2017

The main issue in the short range will be temperatures. Aloft a
split flow regime will exist over the western CONUS, with a decent
cutoff low over the far southwest CONUS this weekend.  That system
will be the main weather maker over the latter part of the short
range on into the long term. The mid level low gets kicked northeast
across the plains early next week. The influence of a northern
stream wave will have major implications on whether this system will
provide pcpn to the area late Sunday night into Monday. The ECWMF
remains the furthest west and north with the track of the system and
the associated pcpn shield.  The GFS has trended south with the CMC
in between the other two models. Given the uncertainty will not make
any changes to our preferred model blend at this time, but will need
to monitor any major shifts with this system.

As for temperatures, the process of scouring out the recent low
level cold air is already under way with the return flow behind the
departing high pressure. Various model H85 progs indicate little if
any arctic air over the CONUS for the next week or even longer. So,
temperatures will be on a slow climb across the area through the
weekend, but that said, confidence in deterministic temperatures is
somewhat low given a lack of good mixing over the region.  We should
still see near to above normal temperatures as we head toward early
next week.

.LONG TERM...(Monday through Friday)
Issued at 322 PM CST Fri Jan 13 2017

The latest 12Z GFS took a big jump to the south with Monday`s storm
system, while the latest runs of the EC and GEM remained rather
consistent. So, not sure yet if the 12Z GFS run is an outlier, or if
it`s catching on to a trend. Will need another few model runs to
see. Nonetheless, will keep chances for snow in the forecast for
mainly the southern and eastern areas of the CWA Monday into Monday
night as low pressure moves across the Plains. Still a threat for
mixed precipitation initially, perhaps early morning. Will await
better model continuity before adding any mention of freezing rain.

The rest of the extended is looking mainly dry with a nice warm up
heading our way by mid-week. Mid-level heights rise as a broad upper
ridge sets up over the central CONUS. 925/850 mb temps warm nicely,
but will need days with good mixing to realize warmth, given the
deep snow pack across much of the CWA. Nonetheless, will still see
highs in the 30s for most areas as we head toward the middle and end
of next week.


.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Saturday Afternoon)
Issued at 1145 AM CST Fri Jan 13 2017

Clouds and snow continue to depart to the east, with KATY having
ended -SN. CIGs are VFR and will continue to see clouds push east,
departing KABR later this afternoon and in KATY shortly after 18Z.
This will give way to generally SKC conditions through the
remainder of the TAF forecast period, also including KPIR and KMBG
as well. Breezy/gusty southerly winds this afternoon will subside
by early evening.




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