Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Aberdeen, SD

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FXUS63 KABR 251122 AAA

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Aberdeen SD
622 AM CDT Sat Mar 25 2017

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Monday Afternoon)
Issued at 352 AM CDT Sat Mar 25 2017

Stratus has moved into much of the CWA east of the Missouri, and
continues a slow progression to the west. There are some gaps,
notably across southeast North Dakota. Additionally, with ceilings
between 1-2kft, and NAM BUFKIT soundings suggesting the top the
stratus layer at around 2kft - this layer is not terribly thick.
Thus, anticipate over the course of the day despite weak northeast
flow this area of stratus will dissipate. To the west, southeast
flow and sunshine will allow temperatures to recover more quickly.

A not that impressive system moves into the western CWA Sunday
morning, with quite a dry mid level airmass to overcome. To our
east, NAM BUFKIT soundings suggest a thicker stratus deck/fog will
form in the upslope favored areas of the Coteau. In between we could
see some radiational fog as well. As the system continues east
through the day, shower activity will have an even more difficult
time overcoming dry air and we will probably be stuck with just
virga showers with ceilings down to around 8kft.

The pressure pattern remains weak going into Monday, but with mild
temperatures aloft, we could see readings into the 50s and 60s.

.LONG TERM...(Monday Evening through Friday)
Issued at 352 AM CDT Sat Mar 25 2017

An active pattern remains in the forecast for the extended.
Consensus models continue to trend wetter than the global
deterministics. Confidence in pops is low due to lack of moisture
availability with this week`s systems. With split flow aloft, most
of the energy is confined to the southern track and only shortwave
energy is going to move through the northern plains. The first wave
on Mon night through Wed morning is pretty week and even chance pops
may be overdone. As a sfc low tracks across the Dakotas on Wed and
provides greater forcing, precip may be more likely, but again
moisture is limited the farther north you go. A stronger, more
complex system moves into the plains Fri and Sat. However, the GFS
and ECMWF differ greatly on placement of the sfc low which will
greatly impact any precip chances.

Temperatures will be above normal through the period with highs in
the 50s.


.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Sunday Morning)
Issued at 620 AM CDT Sat Mar 25 2017

IFR/MVFR cigs will gradually improve by this afternoon everywhere
but KATY. IFR vsby in the Missouri River valley will lift to VFR
this morning. However, as low pressure nears the region early
Sunday morning, MVFR/IFR cigs will become widespread once again.




SHORT TERM...Connelly
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