Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Aberdeen, SD

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000
FXUS63 KABR 082034
AFDABR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
234 PM CST MON FEB 8 2016

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 233 PM CST MON FEB 8 2016

THE WIND WILL SLOWLY DECREASE THIS EVENING ACROSS THE CWA...WITH AN
END TO ANY BLOWING SNOW BY MID EVENING. FOR TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY
NIGHT A SYSTEM WILL TRACK SOUTHEAST INTO THE WESTERN PART OF THE
STATE.  AFTER LOOKING AT SOUNDINGS/PREDICTED UVM...AM NOT
PARTICULARLY EXCITED ABOUT PCPN AMOUNTS...OR POPS FOR THAT MATTER.
SOUNDINGS DO SUGGEST PERHAPS SOME POTENTIAL FOR FZDZ TUESDAY
EVENING...BUT FOR NOW WILL LEAVE THAT OUT OF THE FORECAST.  ON
WEDNESDAY A MORE PROLIFIC SYSTEM WILL TRACK SOUTHEAST IN FAST UPPER
FLOW...WITH A BAND OF LIGHT SNOW EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS NORTH
CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST SOUTH DAKOTA.  MOST OF THE SNOW SHOULD PUSH
OFF INTO MINNESOTA WEDNESDAY NIGHT.  TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO
VARY WIDELY ACROSS THE STATE DURING THE TERM...WITH CHILLY AND BELOW
NORMAL READINGS IN THE EAST...AND RELATIVELY MILD TEMPS OUT WEST
RIVER.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 233 PM CST MON FEB 8 2016

THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN WILL CONTINUE TO FEATURE A RIDGE OVER THE
WEST COAST...LONG WAVE TROUGH ACROSS THE EASTERN CONUS AND NORTHWEST
FLOW OVER OUR AREA...AT LEAST THROUGH THE WORK WEEK. UNDER THIS
PATTERN...TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN JUST ON THE COOL SIDE OF NORMAL
AND THE ONLY CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION LOOKS TO BE IN THE THURSDAY
NIGHT/FRIDAY TIME FRAME WHEN WEAK SHORTWAVE ENERGY WILL SLIDE OVER
THE NORTHERN PLAINS.

WE WILL START TO SEE A CHANGE IN THE PATTERN BY THE WEEKEND HOWEVER.
UNFORTUNATELY...THERE ISN`T MUCH IN THE WAY OF MODEL CONSENSUS AND
CONSISTENCY BY THE TAIL END OF THE LONG TERM. MODELS DO AGREE ON A
VERY STRONG 500 MB LOW MOVING INTO THE HUDSON BAY REGION...RESULTING
IN COLD AIR AND A 1040 MB SURFACE HIGH SINKING INTO THE NORTHERN
PLAINS. WHERE MODELS DISAGREE HOWEVER...IS HOW QUICKLY THIS HIGH
SHIFTS EAST SATURDAY...AND THE TIMING AND EFFECTS OF A CLIPPER
SYSTEM TO FOLLOW. THE ECMWF AND GEM KEEP THE COLD AIR IN PLACE
THROUGH SUNDAY...BUT ALSO SUGGESTS THE CLIPPER SYSTEM WILL BE OVER
OUR REGION BY SUNDAY MORNING. WHEREAS THE GFS IS ABOUT 12 HOURS
SLOWER WITH THE TIMING OF THE SHORTWAVE...AND SHOWS A MUCH STRONGER
WARM AIR ADVECTION PATTERN. DUE TO THE DIFFERENCES...SUPERBLEND
REMAINS THE FAVORED GUIDANCE.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1124 AM CST MON FEB 8 2016

STRONG AND GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON HOURS. WINDS WILL GRADUALLY DECREASE FROM WEST TO EAST
ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT...BUT NOT BEFORE GUSTS TO 35 KTS OCCUR
THIS AFTERNOON. ALSO STILL DEALING WITH SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS
ACROSS PARTS OF EASTERN SOUTH DAKOTA AND WEST CENTRAL MINNESOTA.
AS SHOWERS MOVE OVER THE KATY TAF SITE EXPECT VISIBILITY TO
PERIODICALLY BE REDUCED TO AROUND 2 MILES. SNOW SHOWERS SHOULD END
OR EXIT THE REGION BY OR BEFORE 00Z.

&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR SDZ008-
     020>023.

MN...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR MNZ039-046.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...TDK
LONG TERM...SERR
AVIATION...SERR


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