Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Aberdeen, SD

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201
FXUS63 KABR 301541 AAA
AFDABR

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Aberdeen SD
1041 AM CDT FRI SEP 30 2016

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1041 AM CDT FRI SEP 30 2016

No major changes in thinking with previous discussion. Will just
add that the relatively dry and gusty southerly winds to 30 mph
today warrants a high fire danger risk across our western CWA
counties this afternoon. Similar conditions expected Saturday as
well across the same area.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Sunday Afternoon)
Issued at 351 AM CDT FRI SEP 30 2016

Today will feature partly sunny skies with high temperatures in the
70s. With a low pressure system west of the region, breezy southerly
winds can be expected today, especially along and west of the
Missouri River. While dry conditions will continue today through
tonight, there is a potential for low stratus and drizzle along the
I-29 corridor Saturday morning. Have increased sky cover some, but
will forgo the mention of drizzle. Per the NAM sounding, fog will be
possible on the western edge of the stratus, or more likely along
the James River valley. Models suggest the stratus will remain over
eastern SD on Saturday with cooler temperatures. Thus have lowered
highs a few degrees in the east. Sunday should be the warmest day in
the short term as the surface low will be located over western SD.
Temps at 925 mb warm into the upper teens, to the mid 20s by peak
heating. This warmth should produce highs in the 70s and 80s.

.LONG TERM...(Sunday Evening through Thursday)
Issued at 351 AM CDT FRI SEP 30 2016

Models are in decent agreement at the start of the period. An upper
ridge will exit as an upper trough approaches from the west at the
start of the work week. A sfc low moving off the Rockies and into
the plains will be enhanced by some of the shortwave energy ejecting
out of the upper trough. Showers and thunderstorms will overspread
much of the region by Tuesday and could linger into Thu morning. One
big difference between the ECMWF and the GFS regards precip chances
as the ECMWF dry slots this cwa while the GFS keeps a solid shield
of QPF over the region.

As the trough digs into the plains on Wednesday, temps will cool
considerably, with highs falling from near 80 to near 60 by
Thursday.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Saturday Morning)
Issued at 624 AM CDT FRI SEP 30 2016

VFR conditions are forecast through the period. There is some
potential for mvfr/ifr stratus/fog at KATY at the very end of the
period around 12z. Southeast winds will increase to 15 to 25 kts
today with strongest winds near KPIR and KMBG.


&&

.ABR Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...Lueck
SHORT TERM...SD
LONG TERM...Wise
AVIATION...Wise



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