Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Aberdeen, SD

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FXUS63 KABR 301354

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Aberdeen SD
854 AM CDT TUE AUG 30 2016

.SHORT TERM...(This Afternoon through Thursday Afternoon)
Issued at 853 AM CDT TUE AUG 30 2016

A cold front is slowly sinking southward this morning as a Canadian
high pressure building into the region. A few CAMS are suggesting
the cold front will stall today with isolated thunderstorms possible
across southern SD. A few storms could affect this CWA per the NAM.
Will maintain a dry forecast for now, however.

The Canadian high pressure and upper level ridging will dominate
the rest of the short term portion of the forecast. These weather
features will bring dry conditions, along with above normal
temperatures to the region. High temperatures through Thursday will
average in the upper 70s, in western MN, to the upper 80s, along and
west of the Missouri River. The surface high pressure will shift
east of the region on Thursday with the pressure gradient
strengthening, especially in the western Dakotas. The combination of
the strong winds and low humidity, fire weather will be a concern
Thursday afternoon for west river counties.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday Evening through Tuesday)
Issued at 853 AM CDT TUE AUG 30 2016

An upper ridge over the Plains at the start of the period will keep
the region warm and dry. By Friday night a sfc low begins to move
off the Rockies and the upper flow transitions to the southwest
ahead of a Pacific NW trough. Shortwave energy will move through the
Dakotas on the southwest flow. All of this means precip chances will
enter the forecast again Friday night and remain through Tuesday as
low pressure persists at all levels. Temperatures will fall to below
average on Sunday as cloud cover increases with the approaching
upper trough. Temps will see a downward trend through Tuesday as the
upper trough shifts farther east.


.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Wednesday Morning)
Issued at 625 AM CDT TUE AUG 30 2016

VFR conditions are expected through the period as high pressure
builds over the region.


.ABR Watches/Warnings/Advisories...


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