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000
FXUS63 KABR 241755 AAC
AFDABR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
1255 PM CDT THU JUL 24 2014

.UPDATE...

UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW FOR 18Z TAFS.

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS NOW EXITING THE SOUTHEASTERN CWA...WHILE
ANOTHER AREA IS APPROACHING THE NORTHEASTERN CWA. HAVE INCREASED
POPS ACROSS THE NORTHEAST TO ACCOUNT FOR THESE...BUT EXPECT THEM
TO BE EAST OF THE CWA BY MID TO LATE AFTERNOON. NO OTHER CHANGES
MADE TO THE FORECAST AT THIS TIME.

&&

.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY

HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS CONTINUE TO DEVELOP ELEVATED CONVECTION
THIS MORNING AROUND THE MISSOURI VALLEY AND PUSH IT EAST THROUGH
MID DAY. THERE ARE SEVERAL WEAK EMBEDDED WAVES WITHIN SOUTHWEST
FLOW ALOFT...AND THIS IS JUST THE FIRST OF SUCH. ADD IN A SURGE
EASTWARDS OF AN ELEVATED MIXED LAYER...WITH H7 TEMPERATURES AROUND
+18C ACROSS A LARGE CHUNK OF THE CWA. THIS WILL CAUSE SOME
INSTABILITY ALOFT...GENERALLY LESS THAN 500 J/KG...SO THINKING
JUST WEAK ELEVATED CONVECTION WITH LIMITED COVERAGE.

ANOTHER WAVE PUSHES THROUGH OVERNIGHT...WITH BEST DYNAMICS
NORTH OF THE CWA...THOUGH A 50-60KT LOW LEVEL JET SETS UP TO HELP
SUPPORT ADDITIONAL NON-SEVERE CONVECTION FOR THE EASTERN CWA.

FRIDAY...FLOW ALOFT IS MORE ZONAL AND SLIGHTLY DIFLUENT WITH THE
UPPER HIGH SOUTH AND A WAVE PASSING NORTH. PROFILES ARE MARGINALLY
UNSTABLE ACROSS EASTERN COUNTIES WITH SOME SKINNY CAPE...SO CANT
RULE OUT A STRAY STORM. FRIDAY NIGHT...ENERGY ROUNDING THE UPPER
HIGH COULD ALSO SUPPORT SOME NOCTURNAL CONVECTION ACROSS SOUTH
CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA. SATURDAY WILL FEATURE MORE WESTERLY FLOW
WITH WEAK COLD ADVECTION LEADING TO STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES
AND ENHANCED MIXING. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR A MILD/DRY AND WINDY
DAY WHICH MAY BE A FIRE WEATHER CONCERN GIVEN DRY CONDITIONS
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA.


.LONG TERM...SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY

FORECAST CHALLENGES SURROUND DEGREE OF COLDNESS SUNDAY THROUGH
TUESDAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE IN PLACE.

HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE FORECAST AREA SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH
THE END OF THE PERIOD. MUCH OF THE EXTENDED SHOULD BE PRECIP
FREE...WHILE LOW LEVEL THERMAL PROGS INDICATE TEMPERATURES COULD
BE RANGING FROM THE LOW 70S TO LOW 80S SUNDAY AND MONDAY...WHICH
IS MUCH BELOW CLIMO NORMAL TERRITORY.

&&

.AVIATION...

18Z TAFS FOR THE KABR...KATY...KPIR AND KMBG TERMINALS

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AFFECTING KATY AROUND 18Z BUT EXPECTING
ACTIVITY TO PUSH EAST OF THE TERMINAL OVER THE NEXT HOUR OR TWO.
THE OTHER TAF SITES LOOK TO STAY DRY TODAY. OUTFLOW BOUNDARY FROM
THUNDERSTORMS MOVED THROUGH KABR A SHORT TIME AGO AND HAS SWITCHED
THE WIND DIRECTION TO NORTHEAST. EXPECT WIND WILL SWITCH BACK TO
THE SOUTHEAST EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. CONDITIONS WILL GENERALLY BE
VFR AT ALL SITES THIS AFTERNOON AND OVERNIGHT...ALTHOUGH THERE MAY
BE SOME BRIEF MVFR CONDITIONS AROUND KATY EARLY TO MID AFTERNOON
TODAY AS THUNDERSTORMS AFFECT THE AREA.

&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$
UPDATE...PARKIN/TMT
SHORT TERM...CONNELLY
LONG TERM...DORN
AVIATION...TMT

WEATHER.GOV/ABERDEEN