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000
FXUS63 KABR 102043
AFDABR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
343 PM CDT THU JUL 10 2014

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT
SHORT WAVE TROUGH CLOUD COVER AND SCATTERED LIGHT SHOWERS HAVE
LESSENED THE BUILDUP OF INSTABILITY ACROSS THE REGION LATE THIS
AFTERNOON. THE SPC ANALYSIS SHOWED ONLY 500 TO 1500 J/KG OF MIXED
LAYER CAPE FROM NORTH TO SOUTH ACROSS THE CWA LATE THIS AFTERNOON.
ALTHOUGH...THE DEEP LAYER SHEAR WAS IMPRESSIVE UP TO OVER 50
KNOTS. EXPECT SOME MORE BUILDUP OF INSTABILITY INTO THE EVENING
ACROSS THE CWA AS CLOUDS AND LIGHT SHOWERS MOVE EAST. THE GFS AND
HI-RES MODELS STILL SHOWING NUMEROUS SHOWERS/STORMS DEVELOPING
MAINLY ACROSS THE EASTERN CWA THIS EVENING. CENTRAL SD ALSO SEEING
MORE SUNSHINE AND WARMING LATE THIS AFTERNOON. WITH AN INCREASING
85H LLJ ACROSS MAINLY THE EAST THIS EVENING...EXPECT A GOOD CHANCE
OF SHOWERS/STORMS ACROSS THIS REGION. INCREASED POPS THIS EVENING.
THE MODELS THEN SHOW A WEAK BOUNDARY DROPPING SLOWLY SOUTHEAST
TONIGHT AND FRIDAY BRINGING WINDS AROUND TO THE EAST AND NORTHEAST
ACROSS MOST OF THE CWA. AFTER THE CONVECTION TONIGHT...EXPECT MOST
OF FRIDAY TO NOW BE DRY ACROSS THE CWA. THE MODELS THEN SHOW
ANOTHER SHORT WAVE TROUGH FROM THE NORTHWEST DROPPING ACROSS THE
CWA FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY ALONG WITH A GOOD JET STREAK
DEVELOPING TO OUR NORTH AND NORTHEAST. THIS WILL PUT US IN THE
FAVORABLE RR QUADRANT. THUS...HAVE IN CHANCES OF MAINLY ELEVATED
SHOWERS/STORMS FOR FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY WITH EVERYTHING
MOVING OFF TO THE SOUTHEAST SATURDAY NIGHT. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE
80S ON FRIDAY AND A FEW DEGREES COOLER ON SATURDAY.


.LONG TERM...SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY

SUNDAY SHOULD PROVE TO BE THE WARMEST DAY OF THE EXTENDED FORECAST
PERIOD...WITH ANOMALOUSLY COOL AIR ADVECTING DOWN INTO THE CWA
MONDAY AND STICKING AROUND THROUGH PROBABLY WEDNESDAY...AT LEAST.
THIS SHOULD SPELL SOME MUCH BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES THROUGHOUT
THE PERIOD AND DRY CONDITIONS THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD. COLD AIR
INSTABILITY CU/STRATO-CU WILL LIKELY ONLY ADD INSULT TO INJURY ON
MONDAY CLOUDING THINGS UP AND KEEPING JULY INSOLATION FROM TAKING
THE EDGE OFF THE COLDNESS OF THE AIR ON MONDAY.


&&

.CLIMATOLOGICALLY...
AN ANOMALOUSLY COLD LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE INTO UPPER
MIDWEST EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE COMBINATION OF A COOL CANADIAN
AIRMASS ALONG WITH INCREASING CLOUDS AND A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS
COULD RESULT IN A FEW RECORD LOW HIGH TEMPERATURES ON MONDAY.
BELOW IS A LIST OF LOCATIONS THAT COULD SEE NEAR RECORD COLD
READINGS ON MONDAY:

...LOCATION......FORECAST....RECORD LOW HIGH TEMP...
WHEATON MN          64          72 IN 1949
SISSETON            65          70 IN 1993
WATERTOWN           65          61 IN 1962
ABERDEEN            67          65 IN 1962
MOBRIDGE            69          64 IN 1962
PIERRE              72          65 IN 1989


&&


&&

.AVIATION...
18Z TAFS FOR THE KABR...KATY...KPIR AND KMBG TERMINALS

A RETURN FLOW SURFACE PRESSURE PATTERN WILL KEEP WINDS SOUTH-
SOUTHEAST OVER MUCH OF THE TAF VALID PERIOD AT KABR/KATY. A COLD
FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE NORTHWEST SHOULD BEGIN TO SWITCH WINDS
AROUND TO NORTH-NORTHEAST AT KPIR/KMBG BY FRIDAY MORNING. SOME OF
THE AVAILABLE GUIDANCE SUGGESTS PREVAILING VFR CONDITIONS MAY DIP
INTO MVFR/IFR FLT CATEGORY /PARTICULARLY AT KATY/ DUE TO POSSIBLE
LOW CIGS LATER TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING GIVEN THE AMOUNT OF
AVAILABLE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE. IF THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP EARLY THIS
EVENING AND RUMBLE OVER KABR/KATY...THE LIKELIHOOD OF LOW CIGS
DEVELOPING LATE TONIGHT/EARLY FRIDAY MORNING BEGINS TO INCREASE.
THERE IS ALSO A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING BY EARLY THIS
EVENING ALONG THIS APPROACHING COLD FRONT...AS WELL AS IN THE LEE
OF THE BLACK HILLS SURFACE LOW...WHICH COULD REACH ALL THE WAY TO
KMBG/KPIR BEFORE FIZZLING OUT. HOWEVER...THE KMBG/KPIR TERMINALS
STAND A BETTER CHANCE OF REMAINING VFR THROUGH THE ENTIRE TAF
VALID PERIOD.



&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$
SHORT TERM...MOHR
LONG TERM...DORN
AVIATION...DORN

WEATHER.GOV/ABERDEEN