Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Aberdeen, SD

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145
FXUS63 KABR 270738
AFDABR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Aberdeen SD
238 AM CDT WED JUL 27 2016

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Friday)
Issued at 237 AM CDT WED JUL 27 2016

The pesky cold front that has been impacting our weather over the
past 24 hours will be along our southeastern border at 12Z this
morning. The large sfc high across south central Canada will be
slowly sink across the U.S./Canadian border through Thursday, before
concentrating over the Great Lakes region Thursday night through
Saturday. With northwest flow at 500MB and several small
disturbances traversing the region, it will be difficult to
completely get rid of off and on clouds, later this afternoon
through Thursday. Expect highs in the mid 70s to low 80s both today
and Thursday on north to northeast winds.

The best chance of any precip will be west river Thursday-Friday, as
the sfc ridge slowly pushes across the eastern Dakotas as the next
trough organizes from MT through WY and CO. CAPE values look minimal
Thursday and Friday afternoon. Temperatures will rebound slightly
into the 80s cwa wide as southeast winds slowly return.


.LONG TERM...(Saturday through Tuesday)
Issued at 237 AM CDT WED JUL 27 2016

A lot of uncertainty in the start of the extended. The pattern
remains the same, with northwest flow aloft until perhaps late
Sunday when a ridge builds over the Plains. However, there are
significant timing issues of shortwave activity, llj influence, and
the ridge shift which models have continued to slow. Superblend has
some built in uncertainty in this latest run as 20 to 30 pops Friday
night through Sunday do not correlate to the zero or near zero QPF
in its output. Kept slight chance to chance pops for much of the
extended due to the active pattern, but areas and timing will
definitely need fine tuning. By the start of the work week, an area
of sfc low pressure will work across the Dakotas, but the lower
levels will also dry out, so precip will remain isolated.

Temperatures will feature an upward trend with warmest highs on
Monday topping out near 100 across the southwestern cwa.


&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Wednesday Night)
Issued at 1225 AM CDT WED JUL 27 2016

An area of low pressure crossing the region will bring shower and
thunderstorm chances mainly to KABR/KATY through Wednesday morning.
Some thunderstorms could produce torrential rainfall. Brief periods
of MVFR/IFR visibilities are possible with these stronger storms.
Short term guidance also continues to suggest that by early
Wednesday morning MVFR cigs could be developing over/near all four
terminals behind the low pressure system.


&&

.ABR Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...KF
LONG TERM...Wise
AVIATION...Wise



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