Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Aberdeen, SD

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887
FXUS63 KABR 150212 AAA
AFDABR

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Aberdeen SD
812 PM CST Thu Dec 14 2017

.UPDATE...
Issued at 812 PM CST Thu Dec 14 2017

The ABR sounding this evening along with bufkit soundings showing
the cloud layer extending up closer to -15C meaning more ice in
the clouds. Also, looking around obs showing mainly light
snow/flurries this evening. The radar was showing weak returns
moving into northeast SD/west central MN this evening. Thus, took
out fzdz and added in scattered flurries. Cancelled advisory and
updated forecast.

UPDATE Issued at 551 PM CST Thu Dec 14 2017

00z aviation discussion updated below.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Friday Afternoon)
Issued at 337 PM CST Thu Dec 14 2017

A weak area of low pressure along with an upper level trough
produced light precipitation. While most locations have seen
light snow, our far northeast has seen freezing drizzle which
created slick roadways. With several webcams showing icy
conditions, along with SDOT road reports, have issued a winter
weather advisory for freezing drizzle for the I-29 corridor.
Buffer soundings suggest the freezing drizzle or flurries could
last most of the night, which is possible. For now, will run the
advisory until 4Z and allow the next shift to adjust as needed.

While the current forecast is calling for drier conditions in north
central South Dakota tonight, there are decent radar returns in
North Dakota. Some observations are reporting mixed pcpn with temps
near freezing. Based on satellite trends, it appears as these radar
returns are more diurnally driven. Will maintain a dry forecast over
much of the CWA after 0Z tonight, with freezing drizzle and flurries
noted in our northeast.

The region will see increasing mid-level heights allowing for warmer
temperatures to move into the area on Friday. With southwesterly
mixing winds, highs should warm into the 40s for most of the CWA.
The northeast portion of the CWA will see cooler temperatures with
highs in the mid 30s.

.LONG TERM...(Friday Evening through Thursday)
Issued at 337 PM CST Thu Dec 14 2017

Weak sfc low pressure and cold air advection will bring some light
precipitation to the region on Saturday. Moisture and ice crystals
are lacking a bit for this system on northerly flow. This could
result in an area of freezing drizzle or light snow along the
northern tier of SD Sat evening as temperatures fall.

By the middle of next week, the longwave pattern will be undergoing
a major change. Models show a deep CONUS trof stretching from
eastern Canada into the southwestern U.S. This pattern would bring
significantly colder temperatures and some snow to the northern
plains a few days before Christmas.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Friday Evening)
Issued at 551 PM CST Thu Dec 14 2017

Mainly MVFR ceilings are expected at ABR and ATY tonight into
Friday morning with mainly VFR conditions at PIR and MBG. Some
light fzdz is also possible at ATY this evening.


&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...None.
MN...None.
&&

$$

UPDATE...Mohr
SHORT TERM...SD
LONG TERM...Wise
AVIATION...Mohr



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