Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Aberdeen, SD

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616
FXUS63 KABR 051740 AAC
AFDABR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
1240 PM CDT THU MAY 5 2016

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1237 PM CDT THU MAY 5 2016

AVIATION DISCUSSION UPDATED BELOW FOR 18Z TAFS.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 1017 AM CDT THU MAY 5 2016

THE CURRENT FORECAST LOOKS GOOD. NO CHANGES PLANNED AT THIS TIME.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 234 AM CDT THU MAY 5 2016

HIGH PRESSURE HAS MOVED TO OUR SE...WITH THE LIGHT WINDS SHIFTING
MORE OUT OF THE S-SW DURING THE DAY TODAY AS LOW PRESSURE SINKS
ACROSS S MANITOBA. HIGHS IN THE 80S WILL BE COMMON TODAY.

WILL BE IN BETWEEN THE SFC HIGH SHIFTING OVER S MO/LA TONIGHT INTO
FRIDAY MORNING...AND THE LOW MOVING INTO ONTARIO WITH THE COLD FRONT
SINKING ALONG THE ND/SD BORDER. LOOKS LIKE THE STRONGEST WINDS WILL
BE JUST ABOVE THE SFC TONIGHT. NOT EXPECTING THE 20-30KT WINDS TO
MIX TO THE SFC.

ANOTHER DAY IN THE 80S LOOKS REASONABLE FRIDAY...WITH TEMPS BEING A
BIT MORE DIFFICULT TO FCST DUE TO THE TIMING OF THE COLD FRONT.
FRIDAY AFTERNOON COULD BRING TS TO THE AREA...THAT IS IF THERE IS
ENOUGH MOISTURE FOR ANYTHING TO EVEN DEVELOP. SOME THUNDERSTORMS
COULD END UP STRONGER WITH HAIL POSSIBLE. ALTHOUGH DCAPE VALUES TOP
OUT NEAR AND OVER 1K J/KG FRIDAY AFTERNOON...WINDS ALOFT ARE NOT TOO
STRONG. FCST MODELS ARE CONSISTENT ON KEEPING THE AREA DRY THROUGH
18Z...THEN SINKING S LATE EVENING-OVERNIGHT. COULD HAVE SOME PRECIP
LINGERING ACROSS THE SW PORTIONS OF THE CWA SATURDAY MORNING.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 234 AM CDT THU MAY 5 2016

WEAK UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL BE OVER THE REGION WHEN THE PERIOD
BEGINS...THEN QUICKLY GETS SHUNTED EASTWARD AS AN UPPER LOW AND
ASSOCIATED SHORTWAVE ENERGY APPROACH THE REGION FROM THE SOUTHWEST.
THIS LOW BASICALLY JUST SPINS OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS THROUGH THE
END OF THE PERIOD...KEEPING SHORTWAVE ENERGY OVER THE AREA.

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL KEEP THINGS DRY SATURDAY NIGHT AND
SUNDAY...THEN PRECIPITATION CHANCES INCREASE AS A SURFACE LOW SLOWLY
TRACKS FROM THE WESTERN HIGH PLAINS TO THE GREAT LAKES BY TUESDAY
MORNING...WITH ANOTHER LOW FOLLOWING IN ITS TRACKS TOWARD THE END OF
THE PERIOD. GENERALLY STUCK WITH SUPERBLEND POPS...WHICH KEEP
SCHC/CHC POPS OVER THE CWA SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY. BEST
CHANCES FOR CONVECTION LOOK TO BE MONDAY AFTERNOON AND TUESDAY
AFTERNOON AS WEAK INSTABILITY DEVELOPS.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE RIGHT AROUND NORMAL...WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN THE
60S AND OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE 40S.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1237 PM CDT THU MAY 5 2016

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE TAF FORECAST PERIOD.
INCLUDED WIND SHEAR IN KPIR AND KATY TAFS OVERNIGHT AS WINDS JUST
OFF THE SFC INCREASE TO 30 TO 40 KNOTS.

&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...TMT/SD
SHORT TERM...KF
LONG TERM...PARKIN
AVIATION...TMT



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