Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Aberdeen, SD

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FXUS63 KABR 230602 AAC

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Aberdeen SD
102 AM CDT Sun Apr 23 2017

Issued at 1246 AM CDT Sun Apr 23 2017

See below for an aviation forecast discussion for the 06Z TAFs.

UPDATE Issued at 909 PM CDT Sat Apr 22 2017

Cold front sinking south this evening and will move into northern
SD tonight. Current forecast looks good.

UPDATE Issued at 633 PM CDT Sat Apr 22 2017

00z aviation discussion updated below.


.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Sunday Afternoon)
Issued at 335 PM CDT Sat Apr 22 2017

A cold front, currently running east/west over central North Dakota,
will continue sinking southward this afternoon and through tonight.
A few light showers will be possible along the front, mainly in
North Dakota this evening. Depending on which model used, this front
could slide as far south as Huron by Sunday morning. If this occurs,
it may be difficult for the front to push back north of this CWA as
a warm Sunday afternoon. While there is good agreement among
models with the placement of the warm front Sunday afternoon, a
slight difference of 40 miles will yield a drastic changes in
temperatures. Highs south of the front will likely reach the 60s
and 70s. North of the front, highs may only reach the lower 50s at
best. Locations along Highway 12 should be the battle ground for
the contrasting airmasses. Forecaster confidence is low with
regards to the placement of the front its` affect on temperatures.
Model guidance in Aberdeen is a prime example. The NAM has 56
degrees while GFS and others show upper 60s.

.LONG TERM...(Sunday Evening through Saturday)
Issued at 335 PM CDT Sat Apr 22 2017

An area of surface low pressure will move through the region Sunday
night through Monday night. This feature will bring the first round
of showers for the week. The overall pattern will remain unsettled
as an upper trough digs into most of the central U.S. The trough
will deepen further by Friday. Tuesday through Saturday will have
periodic bouts of showers from the shortwaves traveling within the
upper trough. The trough will also let cooler air dive into the
Dakotas. Highs will only be in the upper 40s to mid 50s through the
end of the week. Cooler lows in the upper 20s to lower 30s will also
cause some of the overnight showers to fall as light snow or a mix
of rain and snow.


.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Sunday Night)
Issued at 1246 AM CDT Sun Apr 23 2017

The cold front sinking south has already pushed through the KABR
terminal, about 6 hours ahead of schedule switching winds around
to the northeast, and continues a steady progression across
northeast SD. The front seems to be hung up a bit just north of
KMBG, but is still expected to move south through said terminal
within the next couple of hours switching winds there around to
the east-northeast. The front should clear the KATY terminal by
12Z, but currently appears to stall out over central SD before
reaching KPIR. Short range flight category guidance seems to be
diverging into two camps, where a few solutions still bring sub-
VFR cigs down into KMBG and KABR by mid-morning, while other
solutions have backed off and are not as aggressive bringing low
stratus as far south as these two terminals. Current
satellite/surface obs do indicate there is a west-east band of low
clouds over ND, which may eventually expand and spread down
across northern SD. For now, KATY and KPIR maintain the highest
probability of seeing prevailing VFR over the next 24 hours.




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