Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Aberdeen, SD

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FXUS63 KABR 182323 AAA
AFDABR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
623 PM CDT MON AUG 18 2014

.UPDATE...
SEE UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.


&&
.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT
FORECAST CHALLENGES INCLUDE THE POTENTIAL FOR MINI-SUPERCELLS
THROUGH EARLY THIS EVENING MAINLY ACROSS FAR NORTHEAST SOUTH
DAKOTA AND WEST CENTRAL MINNESOTA /I-29 CORRIDOR EASTWARD/...ALONG
WITH CONVECTION CHANCES RAMPING UP BY LATE TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH
WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

CURRENTLY...TEMPERATURES ARE IN THE 70S AND 80S ACROSS THE CWA ON
WEST-NORTHWEST WINDS. SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED THIS
AFTERNOON...AND MAY OCCASIONALLY EXHIBIT SOME WEAK MESO-CYCLONIC
ROTATION. STRAIGHT LINE HODOGRAPHS AND APPX 25 TO 35 KNOTS OF DEEP
LAYER SHEAR CAN BE ASCRIBED TO THE STORM ENVIRONMENT THIS
AFTERNOON. MODEST INSTABILITY AROUND 500-1000J/KG OF CAPE APPEAR
TO BE IN PLAY THIS AFTERNOON AS WELL. BUT...OVER 150J/KG OF 0-3KM
CAPE ARE NOTED ON THE SPC ANALYSIS THIS AFTERNOON.

TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MODERATE
SCATTERED CONVECTION SHOULD BE WORKING OUT OF THE FAR
EASTERN/SOUTHEASTERN FORECAST ZONES THIS EVENING. SHEAR AND
INSTABILITY IN NORTHWEST FLOW UNDERNEATH THIS DEPARTING UPPER LOW
CIRCULATION SUPPORTS THE CONCEPTUAL MODEL OF MINI-SUPERCELLS. SOME
SMALL HAIL IS POSSIBLE...AND TO A LESSER EXTENT THE POTENTIAL FOR
A COUPLE WEAK FUNNEL CLOUDS. THE REST OF TONIGHT SHOULD BE DRY
WITH MINIMAL POTENTIAL FOR FOG AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE AND WEAK
DRY AIR ADVECTION TRIES TO SET UP ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT AND INTO
TUESDAY. MODEL-PROGGED LOW LEVEL SATURATION/STRATUS AT THIS POINT
IS SET TO STAY NORTH AND EAST OF THIS CWA OVER IN MINNESOTA
OVERNIGHT/TUESDAY MORNING. LOW TEMPS TONIGHT SHOULD DIP INTO THE
50S AND 60S THROUGHOUT THE REGION. HIGH TEMPS ON TUESDAY AMID
PLENTY OF SUNSHINE AND A MUCH LIGHTER WIND ENVIRONMENT SHOULD BE
ABLE TO WARM INTO THE 80S AT MOST LOCATIONS.

TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...FORECAST CONFIDENCE: LOW
TO MODERATE
EYEBALLING THE SOUTHWESTERN U.S. FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS
MODELS PROG SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW TO GET GOING BY LATE TUESDAY
NIGHT...SIGNALING THE RETURN OF MONSOONAL MOISTURE AND A LARGE
AREA OF LOW PRESSURE. AT THE SURFACE...MODELS PROG A SURFACE LOW
AND WARM FRONT TO FORM AND LIFT NORTH TOWARD THE NEBRASKA/SOUTH
DAKOTA BORDER BY THE END OF THE DAY ON WEDNESDAY. THE POTENTIAL
EXISTS FOR SOME STRONG TO PERHAPS SEVERE CONVECTION ALONG OR NORTH
OF THE WARM FRONT AT SOME POINT WEDNESDAY AND/OR WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
LOW TEMPERATURE TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT SHOULD FALL INTO
THE 50S AND 60S. HIGH TEMPERATURES ON WEDNESDAY ARE A BIT
TRICKY...THOUGH...WITH THIS WARM FRONT WORKING NORTH. THE FAR
SOUTHERN CWA COULD BE WARMING INTO THE LOW 90S ON WEDNESDAY WHILE
POSSIBLE CLOUD COVER AND PRECIPITATION OVER THE REST OF THE CWA
COULD BE HOLDING TEMPS DOWN IN THE 70S AND POSSIBLY THE LOW 80S.


.LONG TERM...THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY
NOT MUCH CHANGE IN THE OVERALL WEATHER PATTERN IN THE EXTENDED
FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST PACKAGE ISSUANCE. AN UNSETTLED AND
POTENTIALLY DAMP PERIOD WILL BE THE RULE. A BROAD UPPER TROUGH
ACROSS WESTERN CANADA AND THE PAC NW OF THE UNITED STATES WILL
PROMOTE A SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT ACROSS THE DAKOTAS AND THE REST
OF THE NORTHERN PLAINS. SEVERAL EMBEDDED SHORTWAVES IN THIS FLOW
ARE PROGGED TO MOVE THROUGH OUR CWA DURING THE PERIOD. THE WETTEST
TIME FRAME DURING THE EXTENDED WILL BE ON FRIDAY AS A LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM ROTATES THROUGH FROM THE SOUTHWEST. BY THE END OF THE
WEEKEND...LOW LEVEL FLOW BECOMES MORE NORTHWESTERLY WITH AN AREA
OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN BY MONDAY. THIS WILL DELIVER A MUCH
COOLER AIRMASS INTO THE REGION ALONG WITH SOMEWHAT DRIER
CONDITIONS.


&&

.AVIATION...
00Z TAFS FOR THE KABR...KATY...KPIR AND KMBG TERMINALS

WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT THE FAR
EASTERN PART OF THE CWA THROUGH ABOUT MID EVENING...INCLUDING
KATY. ONCE THE SUN SETS...SKIES WILL CLEAR AND WINDS WILL BECOME
LIGHT...WITH THESE CONDITIONS THEN REMAINING IN PLACE THROUGH THE
TAF PERIOD.


&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$
SHORT TERM...DORN
LONG TERM...VIPOND
AVIATION...PARKIN

WEATHER.GOV/ABERDEEN




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