Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Aberdeen, SD

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000
FXUS63 KABR 212019
AFDABR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
319 PM CDT MON APR 21 2014

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE THE DOMINANT FEATURE OVER THE AREA
TONIGHT...THEN PUSHES EAST ON TUESDAY AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM. A FAIRLY TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT DEVELOPS TUESDAY
NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...WITH GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS EXPECTED. WAA
PRECIPITATION LOOKS TO DEVELOP ACROSS MUCH OF THE CWA TUESDAY
NIGHT...THEN WILL LIKELY SEE SOME SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY
ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE ON WEDNESDAY. AS THE FRONT
PUSHES EAST WEDNESDAY NIGHT...MAY SEE SOME LINGERING SHOWERS
ACROSS THE EASTERN CWA WHILE THE PRECIPITATION WILL COME TO AN END
ACROSS THE WEST.

FIRE CONDITIONS MAY BE A CONCERN ACROSS THE WESTERN CWA TUESDAY
AFTERNOON. RIGHT NOW...RH VALUES ARE MARGINAL...AND THERE IS A
POSSIBILITY THAT THE WAA MAY BRING MOISTURE IN MORE QUICKLY...SO
HAVE OPTED TO NO ISSUE ANY HEADLINES AT THIS TIME.

WILL SEE WAA BOTH TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY BEFORE THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY ACTUALLY MOVES THROUGH. 60S AND 70S WILL BE COMMON FOR
HIGHS BOTH DAYS. WILL SEE FAIRLY COOL TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WITH
THE HIGH STILL IN PLACE...WITH MAINLY 30S ACROSS THE CWA. 40S WILL
BE COMMON BOTH TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT.


.LONG TERM...THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY
INITIALLY WILL SEE UPPER LOW PIVOT ACROSS NORTHERN
MONTANA/SOUTHERN CANADA INTO THE WESTERN LAKES REGION. THIS WILL
ALLOW WESTERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW TO DEVELOP OVER THE CWA...ENHANCED
MIXING...AND LOW HUMIDITY. WITH H5 TEMPERATURES POTENTIALLY DOWN
TO -26C...DAYTIME MIXING MAY EXCEED 8KFT. BUFKIT PROFILES SUGGEST
ANY CONVECTION ON TOP OF THE MIXED LAYER WILL BE SHALLOW...SO
EXPECTING MOSTLY MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS. UPPER RIDGING MOVES
OVERHEAD FRIDAY NIGHT/EARLY SATURDAY...BEFORE SOUTHWEST FLOW
DEVELOPS AHEAD OF THE NEXT WAVE. THIS IS WHERE MODELS BEGIN TO
DIVERGE OVER TIMING/STRENGTH OF THE NEXT SYSTEM...THOUGH BOTH
BRING A LOW OUT INTO THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PLAINS. EASTERLY LOW
LEVEL FLOW WILL CAUSE TEMPERATURES TO DROP BELOW NORMAL SAT-SUN-
MON.


&&

.AVIATION...
18Z TAFS FOR THE KABR...KATY...KPIR AND KMBG TERMINALS

VFR SKIES/VSYBS EXPECTED FOR ALL TAF SITES. NORTHWEST BREEZE WILL
DIMINISH LATE THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING. WINDS WILL SHIFT AROUND TO
THE SOUTHEAST OVERNIGHT/EARLY TUESDAY.


&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR PRAIRIE COTEAU-
     RED RIVER VALLEY-UPPER JAMES RIVER.

MN...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR BIG STONE-
     TRAVERSE.

&&

$$
SHORT TERM...PARKIN
LONG TERM...CONNELLY
AVIATION...CONNELLY

WEATHER.GOV/ABERDEEN





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