933
FXUS63 KABR 282030
AFDABR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Aberdeen SD
330 PM CDT Sat Jun 28 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- SLIGHT RISK (2 of 5) again for today and tonight. Wind and hail
are the primary threats, though can`t rule out a brief tornado in
far eastern SD/western MN.

- Two rounds of storms are expected in the slight risk. The first
will develop late this afternoon in eastern SD/west central MN. The
second will move in from the west late this evening and progress
east through Sunday morning.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 330 PM CDT Sat Jun 28 2025

A front is draped southwest to northeast across the forecast area
this afternoon, stretching from south central SD to around Sisseton.
Areas along and east of this forcing mechanism will be in the
crosshairs for severe storms this evening. Hi-res CAMS are pointing
to a start time of 22z around the Sisseton hills. 35 kts of bulk
shear and 3000 to 4500 J/kg MUCAPE with no significant cap (+10-
+12C) provide a decent set up for discrete cells with hail and wind.
Low level helicity increases toward 1z across east central SD and
west central MN with an STP of 1 to 2 on the RAP13, so can`t rule
out a tornado or two either as bulk shear increases to 45 kts.

Another round of thunderstorms moves in from the west and southwest
around 5z. This looks to be mostly post frontal with an agitated
shortwave trough. With 40 to 50 kts of bulk shear and 2000 to 3000
J/kg of CAPE in central SD at the time convection, the potential for
strong to severe hail and wind gusts exists through the night.

The other concern will be the potential for flooding across the east
and Jones/Lyman county where antecedent conditions have left wet
soils and creeks near bankfull.

The shortwave trough exits Sunday morning with weak sfc high
pressure building in behind it. However, another shortwave trough
moves through Sunday night with an upper trough/backdoor cold front
that could set off some showers through Monday morning.



&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY/...
Issued at 1217 PM CDT Sat Jun 28 2025

Terminals KABR,KATY,KPIR,KMBG

Added and adjusted prob30 groups for all taf sites with potential
for showers and thunderstorms ramping up again after 21z and
continuing into Sunday morning. KATY has the highest chance of
seeing severe storms between 22z and 02z. Future adjustments will
likely be needed. Vsby/cigs may fall to MVFR in heavier rain.


&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...None.
MN...None.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...20
AVIATION...20