Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Aberdeen, SD

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FXUS63 KABR 221750 AAC

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Aberdeen SD
1250 PM CDT Thu Jun 22 2017

Issued at 1108 AM CDT Thu Jun 22 2017

Updated the forecast this morning to remove pops over most of the
CWA. Based on current radar trends, the showers and thunderstorms
over the SE portion of the CWA should push into MN within the next
2 to 3 hours. While dry conditions are likely by 19Z, will
maintain a low pop in the far SE through the afternoon hours.


.SHORT TERM...(Today through Saturday Afternoon)
Issued at 446 AM CDT Thu Jun 22 2017

Still dealing with convection across the CWA early this morning,
although most of the stronger storms have either exited or shortly
will be. Dealt with some severe storms overnight with large hail and
strong winds. Area is within the southern fringe of the mid and
upper level jet core and seeing sufficient effective bulk shear and
MUCAPE once you get into the southern areas of the CWA. This is
where the activity has been the strongest, with just some general
rain showers further north in the more stable air. Over the next
several hours through the morning, expect this activity to continue,
with perhaps a few more severe storms. By mid-day or early afternoon
it appears showers and storms will have pushed off to the east as
northwest winds and drier air begin to move in.

The rest of the short term looks to be dry for the most part, with
the main highlight being the cool temperatures setting in. 850 mb
temps and 1000-500mb thicknesses really take a tumble into Saturday,
with highs dropping back into the upper 60s and lower 70s. Overnight
lows Friday night will be cool as well, with readings down into the
40s. Normally this would be a time to jump on SuperBlend and go
lower than what its output is for lows, but as of right now there
looks to be some wind being maintained Friday night. So, at this
point did not stray too far from those inherited lows until the time
gets closer and if it appears to be a good radiational cooling
night, then we can lower several degrees in favored areas.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday Evening through Wednesday)
Issued at 446 AM CDT Thu Jun 22 2017

A fairly amplified long wave pattern will cover the conus at the
start of the period, with a ridge over the western conus, and trof
in the east. This pattern is expected to gradually de-amplify, but
the models don`t really agree on how and when that will happen post
144hrs.  The forecast will start off with dry and mild conditions,
but then we should see a gradual warm up next week as the flow
flattens out. Pcpn chances also enter the picture by late Tuesday or
Wednesday as another system heads toward the region.


.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Friday Afternoon)
Issued at 1245 PM CDT Thu Jun 22 2017

VFR conditions can be expected through the valid taf period. Later
tonight and through the morning hours, there is the potential for
lower cigs moving into the area from the north. Cigs may reach the
lower VFR category.




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