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000
FXUS63 KABR 242036
AFDABR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
236 PM CST TUE FEB 24 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 236 PM CST TUE FEB 24 2015

A SYSTEM DROPPING SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE REGION IS STILL EXPECTED
TO SPREAD SNOW ACROSS THE AREAS OVERNIGHT AND FOR THE FIRST PART
OF WEDNESDAY. MEANWHILE A MIX CAN BE EXPECTED OVER THE SOUTHWEST
CWA WHERE WARMER AIR ALOFT WILL FILTER INTO THE
REGION...ESPECIALLY SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH OF KPIR. AS FOR SNOW
AMOUNTS...THE AXIS HAS SHIFTED EAST IN ALMOST ALL THE
MODELS...MATCHING BETTER THE LATEST TRENDS IN OMEGA/UVM FROM
A COUPLE APPROACHING WAVES. A GENERAL 1 TO 3 INCHES LOOKS LIKELY
WITH LESSER AMOUNTS OVER THE SOUTHWEST CWA AND FAR NORTHEAST.
BEHIND THE SYSTEM IT WILL AGAIN TURN VERY COLD WITH HIGHS PROBABLY
ONLY REACHING THE SINGLE DIGITS BY THURSDAY. THURSDAY NIGHT LOOKS
COLD UNDER SFC HIGH. TNT TEMPS WILL BE TEMPERED A BIT BY CLOUD
COVER AND SHOULD NOT GET TOO COLD. BUT RECOVERY ON WEDNESDAY WILL
ONLY BE A FEW DEGREES AT MOST AS COLD AIR CONTINUES TO MOVE IN
FROM THE NORTH.


.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 236 PM CST TUE FEB 24 2015

THE EXTENDED PERIOD STILL LOOKS TO BE RATHER QUIET WITH
TEMPERATURES BEING THE MAIN FORECAST ISSUES. OVERALL THE NORTHERN
PLAINS LOOK TO REMAIN IN A RELATIVELY COLD PATTERN AND EXPECT
TEMPS TO BE A BIT BELOW NORMAL. ALTHOUGH...MODELS DO NOT SHOW ANY
SIGNIFICANT ARCTIC OUTBREAKS AT THIS TIME. DID NOT MAKE ANY
CHANGES TO SUPERBLEND TEMPERATURES AS THEY APPEAR FINE FOR THE
TIME BEING. AS FOR PRECIPITATION...EXTENDED FORECAST REMAINS DRY.
THE STORM SYSTEM THAT MOVES ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS FOR THE
LATTER HALF OF THE WEEKEND HAS TRENDED A TAD FURTHER SOUTH. THIS
LED TO REMOVAL OF POPS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN FRINGE OF THE CWA.


&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1148 AM CST TUE FEB 24 2015

CIGS FROM 2500 FT TO 3500 FT WILL AFFECT KMBG/KABR/KATY THROUGH
THE AFTERNOON HOURS...WHILE KPIR SEES HIGHER MID LEVEL CIGS. BY
LATE AFTERNOON AND THROUGH THE NIGHTTIME HOURS...CIGS WILL
GRADUALLY LOWER INTO AND THROUGH MVFR FROM NORTH TO SOUTH ACROSS
THE REGION. -SN/SN WILL ALSO MOVE INTO THE REGION AND IS EXPECTED
TO AFFECT ALL TAF SITES...WITH VSBY BELOW 1SM POSSIBLE AT KPIR AND
KMBG. CIGS WITHIN AREAS OF MODERATE SNOWFALL MAY FALL TO BELOW
1000 FT. ALSO...A BRIEF PERIOD OF -FZRA IS POSSIBLE AT KPIR THIS
EVENING BEFORE THE CHANGE OVER TO SN OCCURS. TIMING OF THE -FZRA
POSSIBILITY AND THE ONSET OF LOWER CIGS/VSBY WITH -SN/SN A BIT
UNCERTAIN AT THIS TIME...WITH ADDITIONAL AMENDMENTS LIKELY AS THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING PROGRESS.


&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...TDK
LONG TERM...TMT
AVIATION...TMT