Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Aberdeen, SD

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000
FXUS63 KABR 190916
AFDABR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
316 AM CST FRI DEC 19 2014

.SHORT TERM...THROUGH SUNDAY

STRATUS CONTINUES TO BE THE DOMINANT INFLUENCE ON THE FORECAST
TODAY. FOG ALONG THE MISSOURI VALLEY APPEARS TO BE WIDELY SPACE
ENOUGH THAT DIABATIC HEATING WILL MIX DOWN A WESTERLY COMPONENT.
THIS WILL CAUSE THE CLEARING LINE TO PUSH INTO THE JAMES VALLEY.
FARTHER EAST...WARM ADVECTION WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO WARM A
FEW DEGREES AT LEAST DESPITE THE PERSISTENT OVERCAST SKIES.

A WEAK UPPER TROF MOVES OVERHEAD LATE FRIDAY/EARLY SATURDAY. NOT
MUCH LIFT WITH THIS FEATURE...BUT AT LEAST THERE IS MOISTURE
WITHIN THE DENDRITIC GROWTH ZONE. THUS...WENT MAINLY WITH
FLURRIES AS THE PRECIPITATION TYPE...THOUGH WITH H85 TEMPERATURES
BETWEEN +1 AND +3C...COULD SEE A FEW SCATTERED SPRINKLES AS WELL.

NOT MUCH CHANGE IN LOW LEVEL THERMAL PROFILE THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
LINCHPIN FOR HIGH TEMPERATURE FORECAST WILL BE WHAT MEAGER SUN WE
CAN PULL OFF FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.



.LONG TERM...SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY
THE MODELS CONTINUE TO BE SOMEWHAT INCONSISTENT WITH A LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM SET TO TRACK ACROSS THE PLAINS SUNDAY NIGHT AND
MONDAY. THE GEM AND ECMWF ARE SLOWER THAN THE GFS CLOSING THE LOW
OFF...BUT THE GEM AND GFS ARE CURRENTLY INDICATING LESS
PRECIPITATION...WHILE THE ECMWF DEVELOPS A BAND THAT SITS OVER THE
EASTERN CWA...PRODUCING UPWARDS OF 4 TO 6 INCHES OF SNOW BY
TUESDAY MORNING. WITH THESE CONTINUED DIFFERENCES IN THE
MODELS...WILL STICK WITH SCHC/CHC POPS UNTIL A CLEARER SOLUTION
COMES INTO SIGHT. IT DOES LOOK LIKE SOME SLIGHTLY WARMER AIR WILL
REACH THE SOUTHWESTERN CWA ON MONDAY...SO HAVE INCLUDED A MIX OF
RAIN AND SNOW FOR THAT AREA. MAY SEE SOME LINGERING LIGHT SNOW
SHOWERS ACROSS THE EAST ON TUESDAY BEFORE THE SYSTEM PULLS FAR
ENOUGH TO THE EAST TO FINALLY BRING THE PRECIPITATION TO AN END.
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL KEEP THINGS DRY ON WEDNESDAY...THEN WILL
HAVE TO KEEP AN EYE ON A SYSTEM THAT BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF ARE
HINTING AT FOR THURSDAY. RIGHT NOW...THE GFS KEEPS THE MAIN AREA
OF PRECIPITATION WITH THIS SYSTEM SOUTH OF THE CWA...WHILE THE
ECMWF IS SLOWER AND BRINGS PRECIPITATION TO THE ENTIRE STATE. HAVE
INTRODUCED A SMALL POP TO MAINLY THE WESTERN AND SOUTHERN CWA FOR
NOW.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE A BIT ABOVE NORMAL FOR MOST OF THE
PERIOD...WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 20S TO MID 30S MONDAY THROUGH
WEDNESDAY. COOLER AIR THEN GETS DRAWN DOWN IN THE REGION
THURSDAY...WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO MID 20S.

&&

.AVIATION...
06Z TAFS FOR THE KABR...KATY...KPIR AND KMBG TERMINALS

STRATUS CLOUDS HAVE CLEARED OFF AT KPIR/KMBG. AS A RESULT...MVFR
LIGHT FOG HAS BEGUN TO DEVELOP AT KPIR...WHICH COULD SPIRAL INTO
IFR FOG BETWEEN NOW AND 14Z. MEDIUM CONFIDENCE IN A SIMILAR
SITUATION DEVELOPING EARLY THIS MORNING AT KMBG.

IF THE WESTERN EDGE OF LOW STRATUS WORKS AS FAR EAST AS THE LATEST
RAPID REFRESH MODEL SUGGESTS...KABR/KATY WOULD BE CLEARING OFF
LATE TONIGHT/EARLY FRIDAY MORNING AS WELL. THE WESTERN EDGE OF
MVFR/IFR STRATUS IS CURRENTLY TIMED TO CLEAR OFF AT KABR BY
10Z...PROVIDED THE CURRENT SPEED OF MOVEMENT TO THE CLOUDS DOESN`T
CHANGE BETWEEN NOW AND THEN. KABR COULD ALSO BE DEALING WITH SOME
MVFR LIGHT FOG FORMATION ONCE THE STRATUS CLOUDS CLEAR OFF.



&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$
SHORT TERM...CONNELLY
LONG TERM...PARKIN
AVIATION...DORN

WEATHER.GOV/ABERDEEN




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