Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Aberdeen, SD

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FXUS63 KABR 102122
AFDABR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Aberdeen SD
322 PM CST Sun Dec 10 2017

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Monday)
Issued at 321 PM CST Sun Dec 10 2017

Focus will be on the clipper system moving out of Canada tonight.
Warm advection mid level precipitation will be focused across the
far northeast into Minnesota and probably won`t amount to much for
our CWA this evening.  There is some mid level moisture just ahead
of the surface front and soundings are supportive of snow through
the profile down to the lowest few hundred feet though, depending on
location, there may be a deep enough warm layer to melt. We do see
an intermittent loss of saturation in the dendritic growth zone, so
precipitation may change over to drizzle as well. We will also have
to deal with winds, as 1/2km winds are around 50kts, though the core
of that moves south of the area by morning and mixed winds are not
nearly that intense. The core of strong winds doesn`t match the
strongest cold advection either, though the northeast where cold
advection is strongest, will also benefit from a pressure bubble
with rises upwards of 9mb/6hrs by the afternoon. Over the course of
the day, mid level dry air will move in, and low level steep lapse
rates don`t move high enough to reach the dendritic growth zone so
while we may see afternoon shallow cumulus, snow showers are not
expected to linger behind the low.

As for temperatures, cold advection will be weak from the James
valley west, so temperatures there should see some moderation
despite the change in airmass. East of the James, with convective
clouds and cold advection, readings will struggle and probably cool
through the day.


.LONG TERM...(Monday Night through Sunday)
Issued at 321 PM CST Sun Dec 10 2017

The upper level pattern will generally feature northwest flow, with
a series of shortwaves moving through it and across the Northern
Plains. The strongest of these waves will move through on Saturday.
At the surface, high pressure will be dominant over the area Monday
night through the day Tuesday. Will then see a frontal boundary
slide across the area Tuesday night, doing little more than shifting
the winds around to the northwest. May see breezy conditions and
some light snow showers late Wednesday night into Thursday morning
before high pressure moves back, bringing a return to dry conditions
Thursday afternoon through Friday evening. A clipper low will slide
out of Canada and across North Dakota and northern Minnesota over
the weekend, possibly bringing some light precipitation to the CWA.

Temperatures will continue to be mild through the entire extended
period, with highs mainly in the 30s and 40s, and overnight lows in
the 20s.


&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Monday Afternoon)
Issued at 1153 AM CST Sun Dec 10 2017

VFR conditions will close out the day. Tonight we see a clipper
system drop into the area. This will drop ceilings to MVFR/IFR
during the morning hours for KABR/KATY/KMBG while KPIR may be
impacted more towards mid day. Winds will become northwest and
gusty. There will be showers in the area, possibly a mix initially
with a changeover to primarily snow. Winds and snow could result
in reductions to visibility, however we will need to refine timing
before putting these conditions in the TAFs.


&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...Red Flag Warning until 6 PM CST this evening for SDZ267.

MN...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Connelly
LONG TERM...Parkin
AVIATION...Connelly



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