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000
FXUS63 KABR 262049
AFDABR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
249 PM CST MON JAN 26 2015

.SHORT TERM...THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT

WITH A FAIR DEGREE OF MELTING/EVAPORATION AND THE WET SOILS WE
HAVE FROM THE JAMES VALLEY EAST...EXPECT AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES
OVERHEAD WE SHOULD GET SOME FOG TONIGHT. H925 WINDS SHIFT TO
SOUTH/SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE MO VALLEY EARLY...BECOMING CWA WIDE BY
LATE MORNING. STABLE FLOW WILL MAKE IT MORE DIFFICULT TO MIX OUT
ANY FOG...WHICH IS THE CAVEAT TO THE HIGH TEMPERATURE FORECAST FOR
TUESDAY. WARM AIR REMAINS JUST OFF THE SURFACE TUESDAY NIGHT.
MIGHT SEE SOME ADDITIONAL FOG AS A SURFACE TROF SITS OVER THE CWA.
LOW PRESSURE WILL DRAW COOLER AIR INTO THE REGION FOR WEDNESDAY.
WE WILL SEE EFFICIENT MIXING SO ANOTHER DAY OF ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS
DESPITE READINGS FALLING OFF DURING THE AFTERNOON. PROFILES
SUPPORT EITHER DRIZZLE OR LIGHT SNOW...DEPENDING ON THE DEPTH OF A
STRATUS LAYER THAT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE OUT OF CANADA/NORTH DAKOTA
LATE WEDNESDAY/WEDNESDAY NIGHT.


.LONG TERM...THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY

BIGGEST CHALLENGE IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD IS DETERMINING THE
STRENGTH OF THE COLD AIR MOVING IN. AT THE START OF THE PERIOD THE
AIR MASS WILL BE A BIT COLDER THAN WHAT WE HAVE BEEN SEEING BUT
THE BIGGER QUESTION IS CONCERNING THE WEEKEND. MODELS ARE SHOWING
A POTENTIAL SHOT OF ARCTIC AIR MOVING IN...BUT DIFFER IN STRENGTH
AND TIMING A BIT. GENERALLY ACCEPTED SUPERBLEND WITH ONLY SLIGHT
MODIFICATIONS. ONLY TIME PERIOD WITH PRECIPITATION IN THE FORECAST
FOR THE TIME BEING IS FRIDAY NIGHT. BOTH THE 12Z RUNS OF THE EC
AND GEM SHOW THE ARRIVAL OF THE COLD FRONT DURING THIS TIME WITH
PERHAPS A CHANCE FOR SOME LIGHT SNOW. 12Z GFS SHOWS A STRONGER
STORM SYSTEM OVER THE AREA WITH LINGERING PRECIP INTO
SATURDAY...BUT IS CONSIDERED AN OUTLIER AT THIS POINT.



&&

.AVIATION...
18Z TAFS FOR THE KABR...KATY...KPIR AND KMBG TERMINALS

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL INTO THE EVENING HOURS WITH MOSTLY SKC
OR JUST A FEW HIGH CLOUDS. AFTER 06Z...BR/FG POSSIBLE ACROSS THE
REGION AS WINDS GO LIGHT AND VARIABLE. FOR NOW HAVE INCLUDED SOME
BR MENTION IN TAFS WITH AROUND 3SM VSBY...BUT COULD BE POTENTIALLY
LOWER VSBY. WILL EXAMINE AGAIN AT 00Z TAF ISSUANCE.



&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$
SHORT TERM...CONNELLY
LONG TERM...TMT
AVIATION...TMT

WEATHER.GOV/ABERDEEN