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000
FXUS63 KABR 161135 AAA
AFDABR

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Aberdeen SD
635 AM CDT Mon Oct 16 2017

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Wednesday Afternoon)
Issued at 332 AM CDT Mon Oct 16 2017

The main story in the short term will be the mild temperatures.
Today marks the start of well above normal temperatures across the
area as highs soar into the upper 60s to mid 70s. RH will drop down
into the lower 20s across the west river counties, but winds appear
too light/marginal to warrant headlines for fire weather.

On Tuesday, RH will be even lower over the west river counties with
values getting down into the upper teens. But again, winds appear
too light. Nonetheless, fire danger will be elevated across central
SD during the short term period, and even through the end of the
week. Warmer air aloft will spread over the region on Tuesday as
well, so we will bump temps up even higher with readings topping out
in the mid to upper 70s for many areas.

Wednesday is looking cooler as a cold front moves through the area
during the morning hours. Although, highs will still be above normal
as the air mass behind the front is still relatively mild. Breezy
conditions are expected on Wednesday behind the front, and have
increased highs a bit above SuperBlend.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday Evening through Sunday)
Issued at 332 AM CDT Mon Oct 16 2017

A very quiet long term forecast as an upper ridge remains in
place for much of the period. With the jet stream located in
Canada at the start of the period and shifting north in response
to an amplifying trough entering the western CONUS, expect above
normal temperatures to continue through the second half of the
work week. NAEFS standardized anomalies and percentiles match
the above normal thought based on 850mb temperatures (16-18C)
around 1-2 std dev above normal and exceeding the 90th percentile
(around 14C based on SPC Sounding Climo page). The amount of
mixing Thurs/Fri will control how warm temps get, but looking like
highs in the 70s both days (around 80 near Pierre). ECMWF ensemble
guidance consistent on that idea too, with very little variation in
values across the 50 members.

Only precipitation chances in the long term are tied to
previously mentioned western CONUS upper trough sliding east and
through the area next weekend. Models very consistent in
timing/strength of this trough and associated cold front moving
through and a model blend of slight to chance PoPs seems
reasonable over eastern SD and into west-central MN for late
Friday night into Saturday evening. Sun/Mon look dry and still
above normal (highs in 60s) as the upper trough is cut off and
weakens while the jet stream remains focused along the US/Canadian
border.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Tuesday Morning)
Issued at 634 AM CDT Mon Oct 16 2017

VFR conditions are expected through the TAF period. Winds will
increase with diurnal heating this afternoon (gusts into the upper
teens and lower 20s knots) and ahead of a weak surface trough.
The surface trough will cross the area late this afternoon and
shift winds to the west.

&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...None.
MN...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...TMT
LONG TERM...SRF
AVIATION...SRF