Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Aberdeen, SD

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FXUS63 KABR 120844

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Aberdeen SD
244 AM CST Thu Jan 12 2017

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Saturday Afternoon)
Issued at 243 AM CST Thu Jan 12 2017

Isolated to scattered flurries continue to exit our southeastern
border early this morning. Looking at the weather map early this
morning, high pressure remained across our area, with low pressure
moving across southern Manitoba. A sfc trough/cold front extending
southwest from the low is stretched out across far western ND. This
feature will quickly slide southeast and across our region this
morning. With strong high pressure building in behind the trough,
expect strong west-northwest winds to result. Winds will be
increasing this morning over and east of the Sisseton Hills, with a
wider area of strong winds expanding from the northwest closer to
daybreak. The combination of these west-northwest winds around 20kts
and gusts 25-35kts, higher near the Coteau, will result in
significant blowing and drifting snow. No new snow is expected. A
Winter Weather Advisory will be posted for this morning across much
of our northern tier, and through mid afternoon across the northeast
where winds will remain longest.

Will keep the current Wind Chill Advisory going as is. Looks like
conditions improve near or after 18Z, before returning again
tonight. Additional headlines will be needed for all but our
southwestern zones. Wind Chill Warnings may even be needed for our
northeast as areas from Brown to Traverse County fall to near -38F
from 08-13Z Friday. this will be as the strong sfc high shifts
across our northeastern counties 03-09Z Friday. While the main high
moves into MN/WI early Saturday morning a strong ridge will remain
in place across our region.

Scattered snow will return after 06Z Friday southwest of PIR.
Continued with a slower onset, with drier air likely winning out.
This area looks to expand across central and eastern areas Friday
morning, before ending/shifting east by early afternoon. Not
expecting much if any snow accumulation at this time.

Otherwise, temperatures will rebound back into the teens and event
20s over central SD both Friday and Saturday afternoon. Dry
conditions will remain from mid afternoon Friday through Saturday.

.LONG TERM...(Friday through Wednesday)
Issued at 259 PM CST Wed Jan 11 2017

Overall the long term models are in lock step with each other during
the extended forecast. A split flow scenario appears to set up over
the western CONUS early in the period, with a significant mid level
low expected to drop into the southwest CONUS.  That cut off will
probably eject into the central CONUS early next week. For now, most
of the precipitation associated with that system is expected to stay
south and east of the CWA. A weak system on Friday may bring some
light snow to the area, otherwise most of the long term is looking
dry. The recent cold air mass over the region should get replaced by
a warmer one, particularly aloft.  With a fairly widespread snowpack
over the region, and perhaps a lack of any real decent mixing, it
might be hard to take full advantage of the warmer airmass this
weekend and next week.  Some guidance has backed off on temperatures
next week, and this probably appropriate.


.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Thursday Night)
Issued at 1125 PM CST Wed Jan 11 2017

VFR conditions will prevail across the area overnight and through
the day Thursday.


SD...Winter Weather Advisory until noon CST today for SDZ004>006-009-

     Wind Chill Advisory until noon CST /11 AM MST/ today for

     Winter Weather Advisory until 3 PM CST this afternoon for SDZ007-

MN...Wind Chill Advisory until noon CST today for MNZ039-046.

     Winter Weather Advisory until 3 PM CST this afternoon for MNZ039-



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