Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Aberdeen, SD

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FXUS63 KABR 162036

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Aberdeen SD
336 PM CDT Fri Jun 16 2017

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Saturday Afternoon)
Issued at 333 PM CDT Fri Jun 16 2017

As one weak upper level shortwave exits the region this evening,
another one will move in from the west. The next wave will bring
mid level cloudiness and isolated to scattered showers late
tonight through Saturday morning. Models have trended a bit
further southward with this system with the southern half of SD
having the best chance for pcpn.

A secondary system will cross the region Saturday afternoon. This
system will have better instability, between 500-1000 J/KG, and some
shear to work with. Not expecting severe storms, but a few could
produce small hail and gusty winds. Steep low level lapse rates
could create deep mixing winds, especially in central South Dakota.
Buffer soundings for KPIR suggest winds may reach advisory levels
for a few hours in the afternoon. Since winds are marginal, will
hold off on an wind advisory.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday Evening through Friday)
Issued at 333 PM CDT Fri Jun 16 2017

The long wave pattern will feature northwest flow aloft Sunday and
through the beginning of the workweek. Shower and thunderstorm
chances are possible across parts of eastern half the CWA Sunday,
but beyond Sunday most energy will remain off to the east, allowing
for a mainly dry forecast through mid week. By Wednesday, the
pattern begins to transition to more of a zonal flow, although the
ECMWF/GEM seem to indicate a slower transition than the GFS.
Regardless, the pattern does signal the return of precipitation
chances into the forecast. Will also gradually see the return of
moisture/instability by the end of the workweek, so thunderstorms
are probable, although at this point it doesn`t look like widespread
coverage across the CWA.

Temperatures overall will range right around normal in the 70s and
80s. Wednesday looks to be the warmest day, trending slightly above
normal with highs topping out in the 80s and 90s.


.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Saturday Afternoon)
Issued at 1227 PM CDT Fri Jun 16 2017

Prevailing VFR conditions can be expected through the valid taf
period. A few upper level disturbances will bring light
showers/sprinkles at times. Westerly winds will increase during
the mid-morning hours on Saturday with gusts exceeding 20 mph.
Higher gusts are likely beyond this taf period.




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