Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Aberdeen, SD

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FXUS63 KABR 231558 AAB
AFDABR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
1058 AM CDT SAT APR 23 2016

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1050 AM CDT SAT APR 23 2016

THE CURRENT FORECAST LOOKS GOOD OVERALL. THE ONLY SIGNIFICANT
CHANGE WAS TO INCREASE WINDS ACROSS MOST OF THE CWA THROUGH THIS
AFTERNOON. STRONG SOUTHERLY WINDS OF PLUS 30 KNOTS AT 925 MB WILL
GRADUALLY DIMINISH THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON TO BELOW 25 KNOTS. WHILE
A FEW SITES ARE NEAR WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA...WILL NOT ISSUE A
WIND HEADLINE FOR TODAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 407 AM CDT SAT APR 23 2016

A 40KT LOW LEVEL JET IS MIGRATING BETWEEN THE MISSOURI AND JAMES
VALLEYS THIS MORNING AND WILL CONTINUE INTO THE SISSETON HILLS
REGION AROUND MID DAY. SOUTH/SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL MIX OUT AROUND
20G30KT. THE LOW LEVEL JET IS ALSO BRINGING A PLUME OF VERY MILD AIR
TO THE PLAINS...WITH 850MB TEMPERATURES BETWEEN +13 AND +22C...WITH
700MB TEMPERATURES JUMPING TO AROUND +8C. MIXED TEMPS BETWEEN 800
AND 850MB WILL RESULT IN HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 70S AND LOW
80S.

PRECIPITATION CHANCES FOR TODAY APPEAR RATHER MARGINAL...ALTHOUGH
SOME OF THE CAM SOLUTIONS SUPPORT THE DEVELOPMENT OF ELEVATED
CONVECTION ON THE NOSE OF THE WARM AIR. NAM PROFILES POINT TO
ELEVATED CONVECTION...ON THE ORDER OF 14KFT. THE VERY DRY SUB-CLOUD
LAYER AND LIMITED INSTABILITY SUGGEST THAT VIRGA IS ABOUT ALL THAT
CAN BE EXPECTED IF ANY WEAK CONVECTIVE ELEMENTS DEVELOP.

TONIGHT A 60KT LOW LEVEL JET DEVELOPS OVER NEBRASKA AND EXTENDS INTO
EASTERN SOUTH DAKOTA/WESTERN MINNESOTA. THE NAM/GFS ATTEMPT TO
DEVELOP ELEVATED CONVECTION SUNDAY AM ALONG THE NOSE OF THIS LOW
LEVEL JET IN THE VICINITY OF THE WARM FRONT ONCE THE 500MB RIDGE
BREAKS DOWN AND LIFTS NORTHWARDS...ALLOWING THE FLOW ALOFT TO BECOME
MORE DIFFLUENT. THE LOW LEVEL JET BEGINS TO WEAKEN AT THIS POINT
WITH THE FOCUS SHIFTING INTO SOUTHERN MINNESOTA...SO THERE MAY ONLY
BE A NARROW WINDOW WHERE CONVECTION FINDS A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT IN
THE EAST SUNDAY AM. A MORE CONDUCIVE SET UP FOR OVERNIGHT
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL BE UNDER THE LEFT EXIT REGION OF THE JET
WEST RIVER AND THE MO VALLEY.

DURING THE DAY SUNDAY...THE CUT OFF LOW DRIFTS ACROSS SOUTH DAKOTA.
700MB TEMPERATURES FALL TO AROUND 0C. WITH COOLER TEMPERATURES
ALOFT...PROFILES ARE MORE SUPPORTIVE FOR SURFACE BASED CONVECTION.
CAPE VALUES WILL BE HIGHEST ALONG THE WARM FRONT WHERE DEWPOINTS
POOL. 00Z NAM VALUES APPROACHING 60F ARE LIKELY TOO HIGH...BUT GFS
MUCAPE VALUES ARE STILL AROUND 1500J/KG. SHEAR FEATURES A SPEED MAX
OF 50-60KTS ABOVE 500MB...WITH A SOUTHEAST COMPONENT THROUGH THE
MIXED LAYER...WHICH COULD PROVIDE ENOUGH ROTATION FOR A LOW END HAIL
THREAT.

AS THE SYSTEM CONTINUES TO MOVE EAST AND WEAKEN...LOW LEVEL COOL AIR
SUPPORTS THE TRANSITION OVER MORE STRATIFORM LIGHT RAIN/DRIZZLE
SUNDAY NIGHT/MONDAY.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 407 AM CDT SAT APR 23 2016

THE LONG TERM MODELS ARE IN FAIR AGREEMENT WITH THE OVERALL LONG
WAVE PATTERN AND ITS EVOLUTION...FEATURING A SOMEWHAT PROGRESSIVE
YET SPLIT FLOW LIKE PATTERN. THE PERIOD STARTS OFF WITH ONE SYSTEM
DEPARTING TO THE EAST...AND ANOTHER MOVING THROUGH THE SOUTHWEST
CONUS. THE SOUTHWEST CONUS LOW WILL EJECT INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS
ABOUT WEDNESDAY. THIS SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO BRING A BETTER CHANCE
FOR MORE WIDESPREAD PCPN TO THE REGION...POSSIBLY FEATURING SOME
SNOW OR A RAIN/SNOW MIX AT NIGHT WITH TEMPERATURES DOWN NEAR
FREEZING. MODEL H85-H7 THICKNESS REMAINS RELATIVELY HIGH THUS
OVERALL THE LOWER TROPOSPHERE ISNT PARTICULARLY COLD WITH THIS
SYSTEM. SAID STORM GETS BOOTED NORTHEAST PRETTY QUICKLY AS YET
ANOTHER STORM MOVES OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST CONUS BY NEXT WEEKEND.
TEMPERATURES OVERALL WILL FAVOR BELOW NORMAL FOR MOST OF THE LONG
TERM FORECAST.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 616 AM CDT SAT APR 23 2016

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH TODAY. LATE TONIGHT SOME MVFR
CIGS MAY SNEAK DOWN FROM THE NORTH AND INTO KMBG/KABR.


&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...SD
SHORT TERM...CONNELLY
LONG TERM...TDK
AVIATION...TDK



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