Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Aberdeen, SD

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FXUS63 KABR 150528 AAD
AFDABR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
1128 PM CST SUN DEC 14 2014

.UPDATE...
SEE UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.


&&
.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT
CURRENT SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS THE COLD FRONT JUST ON THE EDGE OF
THE CWA THIS AFTERNOON. DENSE FOG STILL PERSISTS AHEAD OF THE FRONT
HOWEVER...SO DID EXTEND THE ADVISORY THROUGH 6PM...AT WHICH TIME
THE FRONT SHOULD BE THROUGH THE REGION. PATCHY FOG IS STILL
POSSIBLE...BUT OVERALL THE DENSE FOG THREAT SHOULD BE MINIMIZED.

THE FEATURES OF INTEREST FOR TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY ARE VERY
APPARENT ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY THIS AFTERNOON. THE SOUTHERN
LOW CIRCULATION IS NOW CLOSED OFF OVER THE OKLAHOMA
PANHANDLE...WITH THE NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH WORKING OUT OF CENTRAL
ALBERTA/SASKATCHEWAN. MODELS ARE FINALLY IN BETTER CONSENSUS...AND
HAVE STUCK WITH A MORE SOUTHERN SOLUTION TO QPF. WITH THE NORTHERN
STREAM TROUGH PUSHING SOUTH THE CWA WILL UNDER PERSISTENT COOLER
NORTHERLY FLOW AT THE LOW LEVELS...WHILE WARM MOIST AIR ASSOCIATED
WITH THE SOUTHERN LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL RIDE OVER THE TOP.
SOUNDINGS STILL SHOW THE MOISTURE LIMITED TO THE LOWEST 1-2
KM INITIALLY...SO WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE DRIZZLE OR
FREEZING DRIZZLE BEFORE UPPER LEVEL FORCING MOVES INTO THE REGION.
WHEN THE FORCING DOES GET HERE IT IS NOTHING EXCEPTIONAL...HOWEVER
MODELS DO SHOW WEAK 700 MB FRONTOGENESIS COUPLED WITH MODERATE
700-500 MB Q VECTOR CONVERGENCE BY MONDAY MORNING. THIS GIVES AN OK
SHOT AT ICE ACCUMULATIONS ALONG THE I29 CORRIDOR BETWEEN SIOUX
FALLS AND WATERTOWN...AND THEN NORTHEAST INTO WESTERN MINNESOTA.
CURRENTLY FORECASTING UP TO A TENTH OF AN INCH FOR DUEL
COUNTY...AND LESSER AMOUNTS FURTHER NORTH. FOR SNOWFALL
ACCUMULATIONS...THE BEST CHANCES WILL REMAIN ALONG I90 AND
SOUTHWARD. THE BOOTHEEL OF LYMAN COUNTY COULD GET UP TO 4 INCHES.
THE FREEZING PRECIPITATION PRECEDING SNOWFALL...THEN COMBINED WITH
20 TO 30 MPH NORTHERLY WINDS WILL MAKE TRAVEL HAZARDOUS MONDAY. A
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE COUNTIES EXPECTED
TO SEE THE BIGGEST IMPACT.


.LONG TERM...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY
THE EXTENDED MODELS ARE GENERALLY SIMILAR FOR THE LONG TERM. THE
LONG WAVE PATTERN ACROSS THE CONUS SEEMS TO WANNA REFLECT A SPLIT
FLOWISH LOOK WITH SLOW PROGRESSION...WITH THE EMPHASIS FOR
IMPACTFUL WEATHER BEING IN THE SOUTHERN STREAM OF THAT SPLIT FLOW.
SO OVERALL THE WEATHER ACROSS THE REGION LOOKS FAIRLY BENIGN.
HOWEVER TEMPERATURES WILL FAVOR NEAR TO BELOW NORMAL GIVEN THE
PERSISTENT LL FLOW OFF A CANADIAN SFC HIGH DURING THE PERIOD.


&&

.AVIATION...
06Z TAFS FOR THE KABR...KATY...KPIR AND KMBG TERMINALS

MVFR VSBYS IN FOG WILL CONTINUE ACROSS PARTS OF THE CWA THROUGH
THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...MAINLY ALONG THE INTERSTATE 29
CORRIDOR...AFFECTING KATY. IFR/MVFR CIGS WILL REMAIN IN PLACE OVER
THE ENTIRE AREA THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. LIGHT RAIN/FREEZING RAIN
WILL AFFECT THE SOUTHERN CWA DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...WITH
SNOW AND LIGHT FREEZING RAIN POSSIBLE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN CWA LATE
TONIGHT THROUGH THE DAY MONDAY. THE AREA MOST LIKELY TO SEE
ACCUMULATING SNOW WILL BE ALONG AND SOUTH OF A LINE FROM
WATERTOWN TO PIERRE.


&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CST MONDAY FOR BUFFALO-JONES-
     LYMAN.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 6 AM TO 6 PM CST MONDAY FOR CLARK-
     CODINGTON-DEUEL-GRANT-HAMLIN.

MN...NONE.
&&

$$
SHORT TERM...SERR
LONG TERM...TDK
AVIATION...PARKIN

WEATHER.GOV/ABERDEEN





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