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000
FXUS63 KABR 280002 AAA
AFDABR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
602 PM CST TUE JAN 27 2015

.UPDATE...
00Z AVIATION DISCUSSION UPDATED BELOW.

&&
.SHORT TERM...THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING

PERSISTENT STRATUS CONTINUES ACROSS FAR NORTHEAST COUNTIES...BUT
IS BEGINNING TO ERODE FROM THE SOUTH. WINDS WILL REMAIN OUT OF
THE SOUTH OVERNIGHT SO CLEARING IN THAT AREA IS POSSIBLE. A WEAK
TROF FORMS OVER THE MO VALLEY TONIGHT. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR
FAVORABLE RADIATIONAL CONDITIONS FOR A FEW HOURS...THOUGH
RELATIVELY HIGH DEWPOINT AIR IN PLACE MAY RESULT IN SPOTTY FOG
FORMATION TOWARDS MORNING. NOT VERY CONFIDENT SO WILL OMIT FROM
FORECAST FOR NOW.

WEDNESDAY WILL SEE SUNSHINE DURING THE FIRST HALF OF THE
DAY...HOWEVER AS LOW PRESSURE PUSHES EAST IT WILL DRAW COLDER AIR
OUT OF CANADA INTO THE REGION. COLD ADVECTION WILL HELP MIX +4 TO
+7C AIR TO THE SURFACE SO HIGHS IN THE LOW 40S TO LOW 50S STILL
LOOKS GOOD. PROFILES SUGGEST THE STRATUS LAYER WILL BACK OVER THE
CWA AS WELL. SATURATION ONLY EXTENDS TO 4 TO 5KFT...SO NOT QUITE
THICK ENOUGH FOR DRIZZLE MENTION THOUGH MAY SEE AN ISOLATED
SPRINKLE. STRATUS IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST INTO
THURSDAY...MODERATING TEMPERATURES DESPITE H925 READINGS
FALLING TO -2 TO -12C. RETURN FLOW DEVELOPS TOWARDS MORNING
FRIDAY.


.LONG TERM...FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY

FRIDAY WILL BE THE LAST MILD DAY AS MODELS AGREE NOW THAT A COLD
FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION FRIDAY NIGHT...BRINGING IN
COLDER AIR FOR SATURDAY. ON FRIDAY THOUGH...PRESSURE GRADIENT
LOOKS FAIRLY TIGHT SO HAVE INCREASED WIND SPEEDS ABOVE SUPERBLEND.
THE AFOREMENTIONED COLDER AIR WILL ARRIVE ON SATURDAY AND CONTINUE
TO FILTER INTO THE REGION THROUGH SUNDAY AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
HIGHS MAY ONLY BE IN THE SINGLE DIGITS AND TEENS ACROSS EASTERN
PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA BY SUNDAY AND MONDAY. THE EXTENDED
PERIOD LOOKS MOSTLY DRY...WITH THE ONLY CHANCES OF SNOW FOR THE
TIME BEING HAPPENING SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT WITH THE PUSH OF
COLDER AIR MOVING IN.



&&

.AVIATION...
00Z TAFS FOR THE KABR...KATY...KPIR AND KMBG TERMINALS

AS THE SURFACE TROUGH AXIS OUT WEST MOVES SLOWLY EAST TONIGHT AND
WEDNESDAY...THE WINDS WILL DECREASE AND BECOME NORTHWEST AS THE
TROUGH MOVES BY. WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND HIGHER DEW POINTS IN
THE EAST...EXPECT SOME FOG TO FORM AT ABR AND ATY TONIGHT. WILL
ALSO HAVE TO WATCH FOR IFR CEILINGS POSSIBLY MOVING BACK INTO ATY
TONIGHT. OTHERWISE...EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS WITH NORTHWEST WINDS
INCREASING ACROSS THE REGION TO 15 TO 25 KNOTS WITH HIGHER GUSTS
ON WEDNESDAY.


&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$
UPDATE...MOHR
SHORT TERM...CONNELLY
LONG TERM...TMT
AVIATION...MOHR

WEATHER.GOV/ABERDEEN