Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Aberdeen, SD

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000
FXUS63 KABR 261729 AAC
AFDABR

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Aberdeen SD
1229 PM CDT Wed Apr 26 2017

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1036 AM CDT Wed Apr 26 2017

For now no major changes to the forecast. Deformation pcpn/snow
continues to rotate into the northeast cwa and this will continue
for a few more hours it appears. Although that said the coldest
cloud tops are developing over eastern North Dakota, which should
portend a gradual down trend in pcpn over the ABR CWA.
Temperatures are tough in the east where they really haven`t risen
at all this morning. Out west some clearing is poking down the
Missouri River valley so 40s look possible out there.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Friday Afternoon)
Issued at 458 AM CDT Wed Apr 26 2017

Main issue in the short term is the upper circulation over the
region and wrap-around moisture moving through the CWA. Currently
seeing light to moderate snowfall across northeast SD into west
central MN. Still enough of a warm layer aloft to bring some brief
periods of freezing drizzle or light freezing rain as well, but
expect this trend to slowly diminish through the morning as the
column continues to cool. Increased POPs and snow accums across the
area based on latest model trends. Could see upwards of 3 or 4
inches perhaps across northern Brown county along the ND border, as
well as east of there into Marshall county. Issued an SPS earlier
this morning to highlight mixed precip with snow accums. Will
continue to monitor trends early this morning for possible headlines
to deal with snow accumulations through the rest of the morning.
Models agree pretty well in bringing wrap-around snowfall into the
Coteau region back west through the James valley.

Once this system departs tonight, conditions look mostly quiet
through the rest of the short term, albeit rather chilly still. Only
seeing highs in the mid 40s to low 50s Thursday and Friday, which is
well below normal for this time of year. Overnight lows tonight and
Thursday night look to be dropping into the 20s.

.LONG TERM...(Friday Evening through Tuesday)
Issued at 458 AM CDT Wed Apr 26 2017

No notable changes in the out periods compared to 24 hours ago. 00Z
deterministic and ensemble solutions, although trending warmer
toward the end of the period, still highlight colder than normal
conditions across central and northeast SD and wc MN heading into
the first week of May. The latest 8 to 14 day outlook is also still
showing a higher probability of colder than normal temperature
averaged over that week 2 timeframe across this region. As far as
weather concerns go in the out periods, the forecast is dry until
Sunday. Still eyeing up a weather system that the 00Z ECMWF and GEM
showed a fair amount of agreement concerning for late in the day
Sunday through Monday morning. These two models (and to a lesser
degree the GFS, too) bring a large wound up system out of the four
corners region during the weekend and lift it northeast over the
central and northern plains through Monday. Currently, it appears a
portion of the eastern or southeastern forecast zones could get into
some of the deformation/TROWAL-zone forcing for precipitation Sunday
afternoon through early Monday.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Thursday Afternoon)
Issued at 1227 PM CDT Wed Apr 26 2017

MVFR cigs will gradually dissipate across the region slowly from
west to east through tonight. The snow over the northeast part of
the state should also end in the afternoon or early evening.

&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...Winter Weather Advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening for
     SDZ006>008-011.

MN...None.
&&

$$

UPDATE...TDK
SHORT TERM...TMT
LONG TERM...Dorn
AVIATION...TDK



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