Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Aberdeen, SD

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FXUS63 KABR 270838
AFDABR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
338 AM CDT SUN JUL 27 2014

.SHORT TERM...THROUGH TUESDAY

A FEW SHOWERS ACROSS EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA ASSOCIATED WITH A
NORTHWEST FLOW SHORTWAVE BELIES A WEAKLY UNSTABLE ATMOSPHERE.
DAYTIME HEATING WILL RESULT IN LESS THAN 200 J/KG SHALLOW
CAPE ACROSS FAR NORTHEAST COUNTIES...WHILE JUST A FEW SHALLOW CU
WILL DEVELOP FARTHER WEST. MIXED DOWN WINDS WILL BE SEVERAL KNOTS
LOWER THEN SATURDAYS WINDS...BUT STILL BREEZY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
CONTINUE ITS SLOW PRESS EAST KEEPING THE AREA DRY FOR THE REST OF
THE PERIOD. AS FOR TEMPERATURES...H85 READINGS AROUND A STANDARD
DEVIATION BELOW CLIMO...SO BELOW NORMAL THE ENTIRE PERIOD.


.LONG TERM...TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY
THE CONSISTENCY AND AGREEMENT AMONGST THE MODELS CONTINUES IN THE
LONG TERM. A LARGE 50H RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN US WITH A LARGE 50H
LOW PRESSURE TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN US PREVAILS THROUGH THE LONG
TERM. WEAK SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE THROUGH THE PERIOD
WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES...LIGHT WINDS AND DRY CONDITIONS. WITH
NORTHERLY FLOW OVER THE REGION...TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE LONG
TERM WILL REMAIN NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL. HIGHS WILL BE
MAINLY FROM AROUND 80 DEGREES EAST TO THE MID 80S ALONG THE
MISSOURI RIVER AND WEST THROUGH THE PERIOD. LOWS WILL BE MOSTLY IN
THE UPPER 50S TO THE LOWER 60S.



&&

.AVIATION...
06Z TAFS FOR THE KABR...KATY...KPIR AND KMBG TERMINALS

MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE AREA OVERNIGHT AND
THROUGH THE DAY SUNDAY. STRATUS CLOUDS FROM THE NORTH WILL MOVE
INTO THE REGION LATER TONIGHT BRINGING TEMPORARY MVFR CEILINGS AT
ABR AND ATY INTO THE MID MORNING HOURS. WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS
WILL INCREASE INTO THE 15 TO 25 MPH RANGE AROUND MID
MORNING...THEN WILL BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE AFTER SUNSET.




&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$
SHORT TERM...CONNELLY
LONG TERM...MOHR
AVIATION...MOHR

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