Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Aberdeen, SD

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636
FXUS63 KABR 242018
AFDABR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Aberdeen SD
318 PM CDT FRI JUN 24 2016

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Sunday Night)
Issued at 317 PM CDT FRI JUN 24 2016

Temperatures have risen into the upper 80s and 90s this
afternoon...with heat indices over 100 degrees across the far
southwest. Will keep the current heat advisory in place through the
early evening hours. A low pressure system and associated frontal
boundary will track across the CWA late tonight and Saturday
morning. Warm air aloft will likely hinder the potential for
thunderstorms this afternoon and evening. There is quite a bit of
instability around however...so should anything be able to
develop...it could have enough strength to produce some hail. The
western CWA would be the most likely area for any potential...where
SPC has placed a marginal risk area. Instability diminishes and the
best deep layer shear will be well behind the front on Saturday...so
will keep pops fairly low. Other concern for late tonight into
Saturday morning is winds across the west behind the front. Better
potential for advisory winds looks to stay a bit west of the
CWA...so will not issue any headlines at this time. The remainder of
the short term period will be dry...with a return to closer to
normal temperatures.

Some concerns for fire danger across the west Saturday afternoon
with relative humidities falling into the 20 to 25 percent range
west river and with the expected gusty winds. However...fuels status
page indicates that grasses are curing but not yet ripe for large
fire growth...so will not issue any fire danger headlines at this
time.

High temperatures will be mainly in the upper 70s to mid 80s
Saturday and Sunday. After a warm night with lows in the 60s to
lower 70s tonight...will see lows mainly in the 50s Saturday night
and Sunday night.


.LONG TERM...(Monday through Friday)
Issued at 317 PM CDT FRI JUN 24 2016

Decent agreement exists through the extended period. The main points
of interest will be the rebuilding of the upper ridge, albeit to a
lesser extent compared to previous occurrences this spring, over the
Desert Southwest/Southern Rockies. There is only really one wave
that is expected to traverse the ridge, entering the northern plains
and dipping southeast. The right entrance region of a 70kt upper
jet/Q vector bullseye suggests some upper support for convection.
At current, the set up is for mid level warm advection to help
support mainly nocturnal convection late Tuesday/early Wednesday. As
typical with northwest flow waves, there is some concern about how
long a period of moisture return can be expected before the wave
arrives. Guidance brings surface dewpoints back into the low 60s for
some modest MUCAPE, on the order of 1-2000 j/kg.

With the exception to the passage of this wave, there is little
major change in the surface pressure pattern and thus a lack of
strong warm or cold advection. Temperatures this period should be
close to climo.


&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Saturday Afternoon)
Issued at 1221 PM CDT FRI JUN 24 2016

VFR conditions expected for all terminals. Breezy/windy south
winds today, subsiding a little overnight but with a low level jet
overhead expect wind shear conditions. The risk for storms is low
for terminals overnight/early Saturday with a front moving across
the area, which will also shift winds to northwest.

&&


.ABR Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
SD...Heat Advisory until 7 PM CDT /6 PM MDT/ this evening for SDZ033>036-
     045-048-051.

MN...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Parkin
LONG TERM...Connelly
AVIATION...Connelly



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