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000
FXUS63 KABR 010316 AAB
AFDABR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
916 PM CST SAT NOV 30 2013

.UPDATE...
AT THIS POINT...IT DOES NOT APPEAR AS THOUGH OVERNIGHT LOW
TEMPERATURES ARE IN JEOPARDY TONIGHT. STILL PLENTY OF MID/HIGH
CLOUD COVER WORKING OVER THE CWA...WITH PLENTY MORE UPSTREAM...AND
THIS SHOULD HELP TO HOLD TEMPERATURES UP OVERNIGHT. THERE IS ALSO
AN AREA OF LOW /IFR/ STRATUS TRYING TO BACK DOOR ITS WAY INTO THE
FAR NORTHEAST CWA THIS EVENING. THE RAPID REFRESH IS PICKING UP ON
THIS LOW CLOUD LAYER AS WELL AND IS HINTING AT AS MUCH AS /THE
NORTHEAST/ HALF OF THE CWA UNDER LOW STRATUS BY 15Z SUNDAY.

ALSO...PER WATER VAPOR LOOP...THE NEXT AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
CURRENTLY FORECAST TO BRING SOME LOW PROBABILITY PRECIPITATION
POTENTIAL TO THE CWA ON SUNDAY IS FOUND OVER CENTRAL MONTANA AND
HEADING THIS WAY.

SEE BELOW FOR AN UPDATED AVIATION FORECAST DISCUSSION.


&&
.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT
MAIN CHALLENGES IN THE NEAR TERM ARE PRECIPITATION CHANCES
BEGINNING SUNDAY...AND PRECIPITATION TYPE MONDAY NIGHT. TONIGHT
WILL BE QUIET FOR THE MOST PART AS HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO
SLIDE EAST OF THE REGION. A FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND UPPER LEVEL
SHORTWAVE WILL TRACK ACROSS THE AREA ON SUNDAY...POSSIBLY BRINGING
A LITTLE LIGHT SNOW/LIGHT RAIN WITH IT. BIGGER CHALLENGES COME ON
MONDAY AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM APPROACHES THE NORTHERN PLAINS.
THERE ARE STILL CONSIDERABLE DIFFERENCES IN HOW THE MODELS HANDLE
THE SYSTEM. THE NAM AND THE GFS HAVE HAD THE LEAST CONSISTENCY
FROM THE BEGINNING WITH THIS SYSTEM...SO HAVE OPTED TO NOT USE
THEM AND WILL STICK CLOSER TO A MORE CONSISTENT BLEND OF THE ECMWF
AND GEM. THEY BRING THE CENTER OF THE LOW TO SOMEWHERE OVER
SOUTHERN SOUTH DAKOTA OR NORTHERN NEBRASKA...KEEPING THE MAJORITY
OF THE PRECIPITATION OVER NORTH DAKOTA. AM NOT TOTALLY COMFORTABLE
GOING COMPLETELY DRY AT THIS TIME...BUT WILL KEEP POPS FAIRLY
LOW...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE CWA. TEMPERATURES
LOOK TO WARM JUST ENOUGH BOTH SUNDAY AND MONDAY THAT THE
PRECIPITATION MAY BE IN THE FORM OF RAIN DURING THE AFTERNOON
HOURS. THERE IS ALSO SOME CONCERN FOR A LITTLE FREEZING RAIN
ACROSS PARTS OF THE NORTHERN CWA MONDAY EVENING...BUT LOOKS LIKE
IT WILL BE SHORT LIVED AND WILL JUST STICK WITH THE MENTION OF
SNOW FOR NOW.

TEMPERATURES STILL LOOKING TO BE FAIRLY MILD BOTH SUNDAY AND
MONDAY...WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN THE MID 30S TO THE UPPER 40S.


.LONG TERM...TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY
THE LOW CONFIDENCE CONTINUES WITH THIS FORECAST PACKAGE ON THE
TRACK OF THE STRONG STORM SYSTEM DIGGING INTO THE WESTERN USA AND
SUBSEQUENT EJECTION OF ENERGY INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS.

NOT TO HELP MATTERS...BOTH THE 12Z RUNS OF THE NAM AND GFS HAVE
BEEN DISREGARDED BY THE NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER DISCUSSION
(PMDHMD). BOTH SOLUTIONS TAKE QUICKLY TAKE ENERGY ACROSS THE
NORTHERN PLAINS THEN INTO CANADA. THE GEM AND ECMWF MODELS ARE
MORE IN LINE WITH DIGGING MORE ENERGY INTO THE TROUGH ACROSS THE
WEST AND A SLOWER APPROACH WITH THE EJECTING ENERGY.

CONFIDENCE IS HIGH HOWEVER THAT MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA WILL
SEE SNOW TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT AS MOIST SOUTHWEST FLOW
DEVELOPS PER ECMWF/GEM. SFC LOW LOOKS TO GET ORGANIZED ON
WEDNESDAY BEFORE EJECTING NORTHEAST. TIMING AND STRENGTH STILL
UNCERTAIN. THIS WILL HAVE A BIG IMPACT ON HOW STRONG THE GRADIENT
WINDS ARE.

VERY COLD AIR STILL LOOKS ON TAP TO SPILL INTO THE AREA WEDNESDAY
AND THURSDAY...DRIVING TEMPS TO MUCH BELOW NORMAL VALUES.


&&

.AVIATION...
UPDATED 00Z TAF DISCUSSION FOR THE KABR...KATY...KPIR AND KMBG
TERMINALS

WHILE VFR CONDITIONS ARE STILL EXPECTED AT ALL TERMINALS OVER THE
NEXT 24 HOURS...FOG PRODUCT SATELLITE IMAGERY AND AREA SURFACE OBS
ALONG WITH THE LATEST SHORT TERM RAPID REFRESH MODEL GUIDANCE IS
BEGINNING TO INCREASE PROBABILITIES OF IFR STRATUS MAKING ITS WAY
INTO...AT LEAST...THE KABR/KATY TERMINALS BY 15Z SUNDAY. WILL
AMEND THOSE TWO TAFS AS CONFIDENCE RISES HIGH ENOUGH TO ADD IFR
FORECAST CONDITIONS. GENERALLY LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS WILL
CONTINUE OVERNIGHT AND INTO SUNDAY. SCT-BKN MID LEVEL CLOUDS
GENERALLY AT OR ABOVE 5000FT AGL WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT
AND SUNDAY.


&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$
UPDATE...DORN
SHORT TERM...PARKIN
LONG TERM...SCARLETT
AVIATION...DORN

WEATHER.GOV/ABERDEEN