Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Aberdeen, SD

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FXUS63 KABR 221551 AAA
AFDABR

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Aberdeen SD
1051 AM CDT FRI JUL 22 2016

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1046 AM CDT FRI JUL 22 2016

No major changes this morning. Sat pix nicely show wave moving
through central WY which likely explains all the accas forming and
moving into sw SD. Meanwhile expect this wave will be the main
impetus for convection over NW into NC SD later this afternoon. LL
shear looks best over that region late aftn/evening so perhaps
best area for severe weather later today. Latest HRRRexp shows a
fairly broad area of convection moving over the state later in the
evening/overnight. Perhaps due to falling h5 heights which steepen
up mid level lapse rates. Temperatures look fine although am a bit
concerned about lingering stratus over western cwa.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Sunday Afternoon)
Issued at 437 AM CDT FRI JUL 22 2016

Weak convection has been noted over the past couple hours south and
southeast of Bismarck. Some of this activity will try to sneak into
the northern CWA soon and may have to add POPs into the early
morning hours of the forecast. Also seeing stratus expand rather
quickly across central SD and into the northern James River. RAP is
picking up on this nicely and followed its trend of keeping clouds
over this area over the next several hours before eventually burning
off after sunrise.

We will see another day of hot and humid conditions. Feel dewpoints
will once again be rather high and have increased them for today for
most areas. No dry advection to be had really across the area today
and east to southeast winds will only keep the moisture pool in
place. After reconfiguring highs and dewpoints, forecast heat
indices were over 100 degrees into north central SD. Have therefore
put this area back into the Excessive Heat warning for today. Day
shift will need to monitor for possible addition of even more
counties if dewpoints soar a bit higher than forecast.

The other concern for later today and tonight will be the potential
for severe storms. SPC has upgraded to enhanced risk over ND, with
the slight risk area including part of our CWA. Shortwave energy
will be working into the northern Rockies and northern High Plains
later this afternoon/evening. A lead impulse will move into the
western Dakotas while a surface low develops over eastern MT. Storms
are expected to initiate over eastern MT and northeast WY and move
into the western Dakotas. Given the moderate to strong instability
over the region, severe storms are quite likely with any discrete
cells over the western Dakotas. Low level shear will be maximized
near the warm front where a tornado threat will exist. This appears
to be the far northwest CWA and northward into ND by late afternoon.
Seems the main threat over the majority of the CWA will be any
activity that maintains through the overnight hours as upscale
growth into a forward propagating MCS seems quite possible. Given
the better low level jet dynamics into ND, this seems the target
area and thus the enhanced risk. Convective chances are a bit more
uncertain over this CWA because it will depend largely on the track
of the MCS and whether or not we are involved in any activity on the
southern end. Also, could be looking at additional storm development
given the overall unstable air mass and shortwave energy advancing
through the region. Expect there will be clusters of storms
elsewhere away from the main MCS.

Focus will then shift to Saturday when the cold front tracks
eastward across the area. Air mass will remain unstable over the
eastern CWA where low to mid 70s dewpoints will exist. Severe
parameters support strong to severe storm potential mainly over the
eastern CWA during the afternoon and early evening hours before the
cold front finally sweeps through the area. Behind this cold front
will be much drier air which will spread across the area on Sunday.
Dewpoints will drop back into the 50s by Sunday, which will be a
very noticeable change.

.LONG TERM...(Sunday Evening through Thursday)
Issued at 437 AM CDT FRI JUL 22 2016

An upper trough will move through the Dakotas Sunday night. However,
precip is not expected as high pressure will dominate at the sfc. On
Tuesday, shortwave energy will combine with a lee side low to bring
some showers and thunderstorms. This stormy pattern will be
periodically reinforced by transient shortwave activity through the
remainder of the extended.

Temperatures will hover around average through the period.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Saturday Morning)
Issued at 624 AM CDT FRI JUL 22 2016

An area of ifr fog/stratus has developed near the Missouri River
this morning and is currently affecting KMBG and KPIR. Expect
conditions to improve to vfr before 15z. Low pressure will work
across the Dakotas late today and into Saturday bringing showers
and thunderstorms. At this time it looks like KABR and KMBG will
be the sites most likely to be affected tonight, so have a
vcts/tsra mention in after 00z. IFR/mvfr conditions will be
possible in and near stronger storms.


&&

.ABR Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
SD...Excessive Heat Warning until 7 PM CDT /6 PM MDT/ this evening for
     SDZ003-004-009-010-015>020-022-023-033>037-045-048-051.

MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...TDK
SHORT TERM...TMT
LONG TERM...Wise
AVIATION...Wise



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