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000
FXUS63 KABR 052345 AAA
AFDABR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
545 PM CST WED MAR 5 2014

.UPDATE...
ADJUSTED OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE EAST DOWNWARD A COUPLE OF DEGREES.
CLEARING SKIES THIS EVENING SHOULD ALLOW FOR GOOD RADIATIONAL
COOLING ON TOP OF THE FRESH SNOW TO LET TEMPS FALL
QUICKLY...BEFORE WINDS INCREASE AFTER MIDNIGHT. TEMPS WILL LIKELY
RISE IN THE DOWNSLOPE AREAS BEFORE MORNING. OTHERWISE NO CHANGES
ARE PLANNED TO THE CURRENT FORECAST.

SEE UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.


&&
.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
.SHORT TERM...THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT

THIN STRATUS PERSIST FOR A FEW AREAS THIS AFTERNOON...BUT WITH
INCREASED SOUTHERLY FLOW OVERNIGHT WE SHOULD CONTINUE TO CLEAR
OUT. INDICATIONS ARE FOR AN ENHANCED REGION OF WINDS OVER THE
SISSETON HILLS TONIGHT...WITH NAM PROFILES INDICATING 50KTS AT
1KFT. THE ALMOST DIRECTLY SOUTH ORIENTATION OF WINDS WILL ALTER
THE EFFECTED AREAS SLIGHTLY...AND THE LACK OF SNOW COVER ACROSS
MUCH OF ROBERTS COUNTY WILL LIMIT THE IMPACTS FROM ANY STRONG
WINDS. SUSPECT WE WILL SEE ONLY A FEW AREAS OF REDUCED VISIBILITY
WITH MOSTLY DRIFTING ISSUES FOR I29 SOUTH OF SISSETON. FOR THE
REST OF THE GLACIAL LAKES REGION...WILL SEE POCKETS OF BLOWING
SNOW THANKS TO GREATER SNOW COVER. WINDS HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO
APPROACH LOW END ADVISORY CRITERIA...THOUGH NOT ENOUGH CONFIDENCE
FOR A WIND ADVISORY AT THIS TIME.

WARM ADVECTION AND A FAVORABLE MIXING DIRECTION CONTINUES INTO
THURSDAY...SO HIGHS WILL BE MILD...INDEPENDENT OF THE RECENT SNOW
COVER. A COLD FRONT WILL SWING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT. PROFILES
AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE ARE DRY...ANY PRECIPITATION EVAPORATING
BEFORE REACHING THE GROUND. IN THE POST FRONTAL AIRMASS THERE MAY
BE A BRIEF WINDOW OF SATURATION...WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR A MIX OF
PTYPES. THERE IS A HIGH DEGREE OF UNCERTAINTY OVER COVERAGE...AND
INTENSITY OF ANY SHOWERS WILL BE WEAK...SO AT THIS POINT DO NOT
ANTICIPATE ANY IMPACTS TO THE PUBLIC. COLD/DRY AIR WILL ADVECT IN
FOR FRIDAY WITH THE SURFACE HIGH MOVING OVER THE EASTERN CWA FOR
FRIDAY NIGHT.


.LONG TERM...SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY
THE MAJORITY OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD LOOKS TO BE DRY. THE
EXCEPTIONS WILL BE MONDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY WHEN A COUPLE OF
SYSTEMS MOVE THROUGH. NEITHER SYSTEM LOOKS VERY STRONG...SO WILL
KEEP PRECIPITATION CHANCES IN THE SCHC CATEGORY FOR NOW. THE
PRECIPITATION MONDAY NIGHT LOOKS TO BE SNOW...WITH WARM ENOUGH
TEMPERATURES ON WEDNESDAY FOR MORNING SNOW TO BECOME RAIN IN THE
AFTERNOON.

WARMER TEMPERATURES WILL BE THE MAIN STORY OF THE EXTENDED. AFTER
NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES IN THE 20S AND 30S ON
SATURDAY...HIGHS IN THE 30S AND 40S WILL BE COMMON FOR THE REST OF
THE PERIOD...WITH MUCH OF THE WEST RIVER AREA SEEING 50S SUNDAY
AND MONDAY.


&&

.AVIATION...
00Z TAFS FOR THE KABR...KATY...KPIR AND KMBG TERMINALS

VFR CIGS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.
WINDS IN THE 15 TO 30 KT RANGE WILL DIMINISH OVERNIGHT AT KPIR
AND KMBG. WINDS WILL REMAIN GUSTY AT KABR/KATY THROUGH THE PERIOD
AND MAY INCREASE NEAR KATY WITH A DOWNSLOPE EVENT TONIGHT. THIS
MAY RESULT IN AREAS OF MVFR VSBYS IN BLOWING SNOW DURING THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS AND INTO THURSDAY MORNING.


&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$
UPDATE...WISE
SHORT TERM...CONNELLY
LONG TERM...PARKIN
AVIATION...WISE

WEATHER.GOV/ABERDEEN