National Weather Service Text Product Display

Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Aberdeen, SD
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FXUS63 KABR 030309 AAB
AFDABR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
909 PM CST SUN MAR 2 2014

.UPDATE...
MADE SOME RELATIVELY MINOR CHANGES TO THE TEMPS BASED ON MID/HIGH
CLOUDS ADVECTING IN FROM THE NORTH. WIND CHILL ADVISORY IS
SOMEWHAT MARGINAL OVER PARTS OF THE CWA...BUT WILL CONTINUE TO LET
IT RIDE AS VALUES WILL BE CLOSE. UPDATES ALREADY ISSUED.

&&
.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT
LOW TEMPERATURES TONIGHT AND SNOWFALL AMOUNTS ON TUESDAY ARE THE
MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGES.

AN ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BRING ABNORMALLY COLD
CONDITIONS TO THE REGION TONIGHT. THE HIGH PRESSURE DRIFTING
ACROSS THE EASTERN CWA BY 6Z WILL CREATE LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS
WHICH WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO PLUMMET TO THE TEENS BELOW ZERO.
RECORD TO NEAR RECORD LOWS ARE POSSIBLE. WAA DEVELOPS LATER
TONIGHT ACROSS THE WESTERN CWA WITH TEMPERATURES BECOMING STEADY
OR SLOWLY RISING AFTER MIDNIGHT. THE BITTER COLD
TEMPERATURES...ALONG WITH INCREASING SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL COMBINE
TO PRODUCE WIND CHILL VALUES BETWEEN 20 BELOW TO 30 DEGREES BELOW
ZERO. BECAUSE OF THIS...WILL ISSUE A WIND CHILL ADVISORY FOR THE ENTIRE
CWA FROM 3Z TO 15Z MONDAY.

A CLIPPER SYSTEM WILL PASS MAINLY NORTHEAST OF THE CWA DURING THE
AFTERNOON HOURS ON MONDAY. HI-RES MODELS SHOW PCPN AFFECTING MOST
OF NORTH DAKOTA AND PERHAPS THE EXTREME NORTHEASTERN PORTION OF SD
AND WC MN. WILL MAINTAIN SCHC TO CHC POPS WITH THIS SYSTEM.

A STRONGER CLIPPER SYSTEM WILL MOVE SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE
REGION ON TUESDAY. THIS SYSTEM WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO BRING
ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL TO MOST OF THE CWA. THERE WILL BE PLENTY OF
LLM WITH THE PRECIPITATION POTENTIAL PLACEMENT SHOWN TO REACH 0.3
TO 0.5 INCHES. THESE VALUES ALONG WITH TEMPS UNDER 30 DEGREES
SUGGEST LIKELY POPS...ASSUMING THERE IS ENOUGH LIFT WITH THE
CLIPPER SYSTEM. THE GFS IS SHOWING GOOD LIFT IN THE SNOW GROWTH
REGION NEAR KATY WITH 1 TO 3 INCHES OF SNOWFALL POSSIBLE.

.LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY
THE MODELS SHOW SOME DISAGREEMENTS IN THE LONG TERM WHICH WILL
AFFECT THE FORECAST. THE GEM AND GFS SHOW A WEAK SYSTEM SLIDING
SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION WEDNESDAY BRINGING A SMALL CHANCE OF
LIGHT SNOW TO THE NORTHEAST CWA WITH WEAK SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
PUSHING IN WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY. THE EC WAS QUITE
DIFFERENT THROUGH THIS TIME PERIOD WITH A WAA PATTERN DEVELOPING
FROM WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY AS THE SURFACE PRESSURE
GRADIENT TIGHTENS UP ALONG WITH INCREASING LOW LEVEL SOUTH WINDS.
THUS...WEDNESDAY NIGHTS LOWS AND HIGHS THURSDAY WILL BE GREATLY
AFFECTED. THE MEX GUIDANCE FOR THURSDAY SHOWED 16 DEGREES AT
ABERDEEN UNDER WEAK SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE AND NORTHEAST WINDS
WHILE THE EC SHOWED 40 DEGREES WITH BREEZY SOUTHWEST WINDS. WENT
CLOSER TO THE EC SOLUTION FOR THIS TIME PERIOD.

THE MODELS AGREE BETTER FOR THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY. A
COLD FRONT COMES THROUGH ON THURSDAY NIGHT WITH SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE PUSHING IN FROM THE NORTHWEST AND THEN BUILDING EAST OF
THE REGION THROUGH SATURDAY. HAVE IN SOME SLIGHT CHANCES OF LIGHT
SNOW WITH THIS FRONT. AFTER ANOTHER COOL DOWN ON FRIDAY UNDER
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE...TEMPERATURES WILL BE ON THE INCREASE INTO
SUNDAY. THE GOOD THING IN THE LONG TERM IS THE LACK OF BITTER
ARCTIC AIR. HIGH TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD SHOULD BE MOSTLY
IN THE 20S AND 30S. THURSDAY MAY HAVE SOME 40S OUT WEST IF THE EC
IS CORRECT. SUNDAY WILL BE THE WARMEST DAY IN AWHILE ACROSS THE
CWA WITH HIGHS IN THE 30S AND 40S WITH 50S SOUTHWEST IN THE CWA.

&&

.AVIATION...
00Z TAFS FOR THE KABR...KATY...KPIR AND KMBG TERMINALS

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT ALL TERMINALS THROUGH TONIGHT AND
MONDAY MORNING AS MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS STREAM OVER THE
REGION.

&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...WIND CHILL ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM CST /9 AM MST/ MONDAY FOR BROWN-
     BUFFALO-CAMPBELL-CLARK-CODINGTON-CORSON-DAY-DEUEL-DEWEY-
     EDMUNDS-FAULK-GRANT-HAMLIN-HAND-HUGHES-HYDE-JONES-LYMAN-
     MARSHALL-MCPHERSON-POTTER-ROBERTS-SPINK-STANLEY-SULLY-
     WALWORTH.

MN...WIND CHILL ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM CST MONDAY FOR BIG STONE-
     TRAVERSE.

&&

$$
UPDATE...TDK
SHORT TERM...SD
LONG TERM...MOHR
AVIATION...TDK

WEATHER.GOV/ABERDEEN
National Weather Service Weather Forecast Office
