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000
FXUS63 KABR 260855
AFDABR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
355 AM CDT SAT JUL 26 2014

.SHORT TERM...THROUGH MONDAY

A FEW ELEVATED/WEAK STORMS MOVING ACROSS THE CWA THIS AM. MOST OF
THIS WILL CONTINUE TO DRIFT EAST/SOUTHEAST AND WEAKEN. A SLOW
MOVING...BROAD AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO PUSH INTO THE
REGION TODAY AND WILL BE THE DOMINANT WEATHER FEATURE THROUGH THE
SHORT TERM.

AS WE ARE ON THE PERIPHERY OF THE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM FOR MOST OF
THE DAY...WESTERLY WINDS WILL PROVIDE A FAVORABLE MIXING
ENVIRONMENT WHICH WILL COUNTER COLD ADVECTION AND RESULT IN
NEAR NORMAL HIGHS...AS WELL AS MUCH LOWER HUMIDITY. MIXED WINDS
ACROSS THE FAR WESTERN CWA WILL BE CLOSE TO BUT PROBABLY JUST
BELOW ADVISORY. H85 TEMPS ARE GOING TO RUN AROUND 1 STANDARD
DEVIATION BELOW CLIMO FOR THE REST OF THE PERIOD...SO TEMPERATURES
WILL END UP RATHER MILD FOR WHAT IS CLIMATOLOGICALLY THE PEAK IN
SUMMER HEAT.


.LONG TERM...MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY
NOT MUCH CHANGE IN THE MODELS THROUGH THE LONG TERM WITH A
CONTINUED 50H RIDGE WEST/TROUGH EAST PATTERN OVER THE US.
THUS...SUBSIDENCE WITH WEAK HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE WILL
DOMINATE OUR WEATHER THROUGH FRIDAY. EXPECT MOSTLY CLEAR
SKIES...DRY CONDITIONS WITH NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD.



&&

.AVIATION...
06Z TAFS FOR THE KABR...KATY...KPIR AND KMBG TERMINALS

GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE VALID
TAF PERIOD AT ALL SITES. IFR/MVFR FOG WILL AFFECT KATY/KABR
OVERNIGHT OCCASIONALLY BEFORE CLEARING BY 14Z. SHOWERS/TSTORMS MAY
IMPACT KPIR UNTIL AROUND 10Z. WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS WILL
INCREASE ON SATURDAY AND BECOME BREEZY AT ALL LOCATIONS.




&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$
SHORT TERM...CONNELLY
LONG TERM...MOHR
AVIATION...MOHR

WEATHER.GOV/ABERDEEN