Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Aberdeen, SD

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000
FXUS63 KABR 271615 AAB
AFDABR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
1115 AM CDT MON OCT 27 2014

.UPDATE...REST OF TODAY

FAIRLY GOOD AREAL COVERAGE OF LIGHT RAIN ACROSS THE REGION...A BIT
MORE THAN PREVIOUS FORECAST INDICATED. HAVE THEREFORE INCREASED
POPS QUITE A BIT ACROSS THE REGION INTO LIKELY OR DEFINITE FOR
MOST AREAS. OVERALL AMOUNTS WILL REMAIN LIGHT...GENERALLY LESS
THAN A QUARTER INCH. ALSO INCREASED SKY COVER AS THE ENTIRE CWA IS
COVERED IN CLOUDS. AS THE SHORTWAVE MOVES THROUGH TODAY THERE WILL
BE A BIT OF CLEARING FROM WEST TO EAST OVER CENTRAL AND EVENTUALLY
EASTERN SD LATE TODAY. ANOTHER DISTINCT CIRCULATION OVER NORTHEAST
MT WILL MOVE EAST THROUGH THE DAY. WITH IT WILL COME SOME LOWER
CLOUDS AND PERHAPS A FEW INSTABILITY SHOWERS THIS AFTERNOON.
CURRENT HIGHS APPEAR ON TRACK AND LITTLE CHANGES NEEDED THERE.
CENTRAL SD ALREADY APPROACHING FORECAST HIGHS BUT NOT EXPECTING
MUCH MORE THAN A FEW MORE DEGREES RISE THROUGH THE DAY. WEST WINDS
WILL INCREASE LATER TODAY AND BECOME QUITE GUSTY OVER WESTERN AND
CENTRAL SD SO WILL LEAVE WIND ADVISORY IN PLACE FOR CORSON AND
DEWEY COUNTIES.

AVIATION DISCUSSION HAS BEEN UPDATED.

&&

.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...

.SHORT TERM...THROUGH WEDNESDAY

FORECAST CONCERNS ARE MAINLY FIRE WEATHER/WIND RELATED TODAY.
SURFACE TROF CONTINUES EAST WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM
THE WEST AND LOW PRESSURE TO THE NORTHEAST. BUFKIT MIXED DOWN
WINDS ARE ON THE LOW END OF ADVISORY LEVEL...WHICH IS MAINLY
DEPENDENT ON THE DEPTH OF MIXING TODAY. GIVEN THE GRADIENT...AND
COLD AIR ADVECTION...THE LYNCH PIN IS SKY COVER. THIS AM...THERE
ARE SOME UPSTREAM GAPS IN CLOUD COVER BETWEEN THE AREA OF
FAVORABLE DIFLUENT FLOW ALOFT AND THE UPPER LOW...SO BEST AREA OF
SEEING ADVISORY WINDS WILL BE FAR NORTHWEST COUNTIES. FIRE WEATHER
CONCERNS ARE ALSO BE DOMINATED BY THE STRONG WINDS...DESPITE AN
AREA OF LIGHT RAIN MOVING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER OF THE CWA THIS
AM. THIS FEATURE WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH EAST AND SO WESTERN/CENTRAL
COUNTIES WILL LIKELY BE DRYING OUT BY THE AFTERNOON.

H85 TEMPERATURES BOTTOM OUT AROUND -2C TUESDAY...WITH WARM AIR
ADVECTION IN WESTERLY FLOW FOR EFFICIENT MIXING ON WEDNESDAY.

.LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY

NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT AND A REINFORCING SHOT OF COLD AIR WITH A SFC
HIGH ON FRIDAY MEAN A CHILLY START TO THE EXTENDED PERIOD WITH
HIGHS NEAR OR SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL. BY FRIDAY NIGHT AN UPPER
RIDGE BRIEFLY SHIFTS OVER THE PLAINS WHILE RETURN FLOW OUT OF THE
SOUTH SETS UP AT THE SFC. SO SATURDAY LOOKS TO BE BREEZY BUT GOOD
MIXING WILL MEAN WARMER TEMPERATURES. THEN A COLD FRONT SWINGS
THROUGH THE DAKOTAS SAT NIGHT. THERE MAY BE SOME PRECIP ASSOCIATED
WITH THIS FEATURE BUT MODELS ARE QUITE DIVERGENT AT THIS POINT.
STUCK WITH MODEL BLEND POPS FOR NOW. AN UPPER TROUGH WILL
TRANSITION OVER THE PLAINS SUNDAY BUT ANY ASSOCIATED COLDER AIR
WILL HOLD OFF UNTIL MONDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...

18Z TAFS FOR THE KABR...KATY...KPIR AND KMBG TERMINALS

NO MORE VIRGA NOW. MID AND UPPER LEVEL SATURATION HAS KICKED IN
AND RAIN REACHING THE GROUND AT ALL FOUR TERMINALS. PRECIPITATION
CHANCES SHOULD GO AWAY FROM WEST TO EAST THROUGH THE COURSE OF THE
REST OF TODAY. FLYING WEATHER CATEGORY SHOULD REMAIN VFR THROUGH
THIS AFTERNOON/INTO EARLY THIS EVENING FOR MOST TERMINALS...EXCEPT
PERHAPS KMBG. VFR/MVFR LOW STRATUS NOTED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY NOW
MAKING A BEE-LINE FOR THE KMBG TERMINAL AND WILL LIKELY REACH
THERE BEFORE 00Z. SREF/RAPID REFRESH LOW CLOUD PROGS ALL POINT TO
VFR/MVFR STRATUS BARRELING DOWN ACROSS ALL FOUR TERMINALS
OVERNIGHT INTO TUESDAY. THERE COULD BE A FEW SPRINKLES FALLING OUT
OF THIS STRATUS...BUT GENERALLY LOOK FOR DRY CONDITIONS TO
ACCOMPANY THE LOW CLOUD DECK. ALSO...ALL FOUR TERMINALS ARE NOW IN
POST FRONTAL NORTHWEST WINDS...WITH KPIR ALREADY BEGINNING TO PICK
UP IN TERMS OF WIND SPEED. THE OTHER THREE TERMINALS WILL ALSO SEE
A GRADUAL UP-TICK IN SPEEDS/GUSTS THROUGH THE REST OF TODAY INTO
TONIGHT.

&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

SD...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR CORSON-DEWEY.

MN...NONE.
&&

$$
UPDATE...TMT
SHORT TERM...CONNELLY
LONG TERM...WISE
AVIATION...DORN

WEATHER.GOV/ABERDEEN





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